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Free MLB Pick Monday

#965/966 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) at Houston Astros (Peacock) 7:10 PM CT

There were 21 runs scored in Houston’s 11-10 loss to the Rangers but there were only 21 hits in that game for a bizarre scoring barrage led by seven home runs. Houston only had one hit with runners in scoring position in that game despite posting 10 runs and they only had five at-bats with runners in scoring position as the game proved to be an extreme outlier in scoring efficiency.

While Collin McHugh had a disastrous start Sunday he managed to record 10 outs and allowed Houston to only use three relievers with Will Harris and Ryan Pressly pitching minimally enough that they should still be available today with both of those relievers still clocking 0.00 ERAs on the season. The Houston bullpen has been outstanding this season but Brad Peacock has been very sharp in 16 innings of work for the Astros with a 3.40 FIP and a very low walk rate.

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Minnesota has great offensive numbers this season but they are coming off facing the Orioles to inflate the numbers over the weekend. With three games the past two days this could be a fatigued team in Houston but Jake Odorizzi has looked good so far this season with a 3.15 FIP and a 11.1 K/9. His walk rate has been high but he has also faced a tough set of four opponents.

This looks like an offensive showcase but Jose Altuve and Max Kepler could again be sitting out after both missed Sunday’s games and the oddsmakers have pushed this total to match the highest total in Houston this season despite the Athletics and Yankees visiting this season. Saturday’s 16-run outburst inflates the season numbers for the Twins who have scored four or fewer runs in nine of 19 games while Houston has scored four or fewer runs 13 times this season.

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Nelly’s has turned in four straight profitable MLB seasons – we just started our 2019 season and will have daily updates through the World Series. The Full Season subscription is $595.

Bobby Dalton turned in a 5-1 MLB weekend and he is riding a 54-31 run in MLB Totals since last season. Get a 10* Best Bet Total Monday night for $19.99.

Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton have been featuring regular NBA Playoff updates as well. The 1st round has been a mild disappointment after huge gains for both in the regular season but there are plenty of winners ahead with two months remaining in the playoffs. Dalton is back with a 10* for one of the big Game 4 matchups Monday.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#970 Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) +120 over Oakland Athletics (Manaea) 7:10 PM CT

The Twins have been a disappointment this season but Minnesota has played respectable ball in the past two months even as one of the big trade deadline sellers. The Twins have a .784 team OPS in the past 12 games with 21 home runs and 5.5 runs per game on average. Minnesota won the season’s first meeting with Oakland last night and Minnesota could play spoiler with six more games remaining against the Athletics. Since early July Minnesota is 26-18 while scoring 5.1 runs per game and the Twins are 39-26 at Target Field on the season.

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The season numbers support a preference for facing right-handers for Minnesota but in the past 10 games the Twins have hit .260 with 7.6 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching. Sean Manaea has a nice season line with a 3.70 ERA but take out a brilliant month of April and he is a league-average pitcher with a 4.74 ERA just a 5.6 K/9. Manaea has allowed at least two runs in 18 of his last 20 starts as he has rarely been dominant and over his last three starts (all at home) he owns a 6.91 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi has been a solid starter for Minnesota and he owns a 3.88 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has a 9.9 K/9 in that span with two or fewer runs allowed in seven of those 10 starts. Despite the sell off the Twins have a 1.99 bullpen ERA the past 10 games and Oakland’s lineup has also been better vs. lefties of late as Odorizzi isn’t an ideal draw. Oakland is just 4-4 the past eight games and the team has failed to top four runs in six of the last nine games. With a 26-10 record in one-run games this has been a fortunate team and the deep bullpen has been worked hard the past two games with disappointing losses dropping the Athletics 1.5 games behind Houston. Oakland has one win in the last six visits to Minneapolis and the home underdog price is appealing on a Twins squad that is still playing hard.

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Nelly’s is 10-4 in our last 14 MLB picks – check out Friday’s MLB package. Big E and Bobby Dalton also have big football picks planned for preseason Week 3.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#919/920 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy appeared to be on pace to becoming one of the top left-handers in the AL, used as a reliever in the 2014 and 2015 postseasons after being a capable back of the rotation starter. Duffy became a full-time starter in 2016 and delivered a great season. In down year for the Royals last season Duffy still made competitive starts but he has struggled in 2018 for an even worst performing Kansas City squad. His ERA is 4.59 with a 4.98 FIP and his BB/9 has climbed to 4.2. Duffy has a hefty contract through 2021 as he isn’t likely to be dealt even though he has looked the part of a very useful starter of late, allowing posting five starts with one or fewer allowed over his last seven outings. His ERA is actually just 2.73 over his last 10 starts and he has dominated the Twins twice in that stretch, allowing just one run over 12 innings.

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Minnesota owns a .699 team OPS vs. left-handers on the season and while a 9-2 run into the break has kept the Twins hanging on in the AL Central conversation this team is still a candidate to move some pieces at the deadline and the recent rise in production mostly came against the bottom of the AL. Minnesota has just 18 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances this season vs. left-handed pitching.

Jose Berrios represented the Twins in the All Star game but since late April Kyle Gibson has been the team’s top starter. In his last 15 starts his ERA is just 3.23 with solid strikeout marks and few home runs allowed. He posted seven shutout innings vs. the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in late May and Kansas City has a AL worst .666 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens have been a mess to offer some concern in the late innings but off the long layoff the managers will be able to have all of their options at full strength.

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Bobby Dalton picked up +46.0* in June! He has a 20-11 run in Best Bests at the break and has a 10* Best Bet for Friday afternoon! 

Nelly’s has turned in a profit in 9 of 14 weeks this season. We finished the first half 11 games above .500 with nearly +9.0* of profit. Totals are red hot with a 17-7 run at the break while 32-19 (63%) overall since May 28!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#974 Kansas City Royals (Duffy) +120 over Minnesota Twins (Gibson) 7:15 PM CT

The Royals are heading for a very rough season but the lineup has shown some life with a .270 team average the past month, towering over a .237 mark for the Twins. Minnesota held on for an 8-5 win Monday night to open this series despite the Royals having more hits. Three runs came on a blooper double in the eighth inning that proved to be the difference with Kansas City going 4-19 with runners in scoring position.

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Kyle Gibson has strong road numbers this season but he has been consistently mediocre of late and hasn’t won a game since his first start of the season in late March. He has allowed 15 runs in his last five starts and his BB/9 of 4.3 is a concern.

Danny Duffy looked like one of the AL’s better pitchers going 12-3 in 2016 and he was solid last season for the Royals. His 2018 numbers have been disastrous with a 6.14 ERA so far but Duffy still has the pedigree of a much better starter. He has been burned by 14 home runs this season which is much less of risk against this Minnesota lineup and he has made only two of his last eight starts at home as he hasn’t been able to find a great rhythm with his only home start in May coming against the Yankees. Duffy has a career ERA of just 2.49 vs. the Twins with only one career loss in 13 starts vs. Minnesota.

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The Twins have a bullpen edge but the Royals continue to produce at the plate with an average of five runs per game the past seven contests while the Twins have scored five or more runs twice in the past 17 games.

The NBA Finals commence on Thursday – Nelly’s enters the Finals having won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs. Bobby Dalton won a Game 7 10* on Monday and is on a 33-17 run in playoff side plays!

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Nelly’s hit a solid underdog on the diamond Monday night plus in 4 of 7 weeks this season. Bobby Dalton has won 8 of his last 9 National League picks – check out daily MLB offers!

 

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#979 St. Louis Cardinals (Flaherty) +105 over Minnesota Twins (Berrios) 7:10 PM CT

Jack Flaherty didn’t look MLB ready in six appearances last season but the 22-year-old 2014 1st round pick has pitched well in two starts this season. His ERA is just 3.60 with a 9.9 K/9 making a pair of road starts vs. winning teams in April. His AAA numbers are magnificent this season and this is his opportunity to make a strong case to remain in the rotation.

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The Twins are just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central but the offense continues to disappoint. Minnesota has won eight of the last 12 games including beating the Cardinals twice in St. Louis last week but the late night and extra-innings series in Anaheim last week may be taking a toll. The Twins didn’t score last night and have scored just 17 runs in the past five games. Byron Buxton continues to struggle while Jason Castro has hit the DL to join Miguel Sano. Right now only Eddie Rosario has held his weight in the lineup with hot starts from Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar fading away.

Jose Berrios turns 24 in a few weeks and after a solid 2017 season for the Twins over 25 starts expectations are high in 2018. A complete game shutout in his first start answered that call but over his past four starts his ERA is 8.84 with a 5.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Something has been off with the talented young right-hander and underdog pricing for the Cardinals is appealing. St. Louis has won seven of the past 11 quietly six games above .500 despite a few big injuries. The Cardinals are 39 runs better in scoring differential and a winning road team as well.

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Multi-game MLB offers are available from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton for Tuesday night – also don’t miss Game 2 picks in the Eastern Conference Finals!