Tag: Tuesday

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Free NBA Pick Monday

#518 Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Denver Nuggets 7:35 PM CT

Denver is looking like a Western Conference playoff threat, actually leading the Northwest Division at 13-9 to sit just ahead of Minnesota and Portland for the moment. The Nuggets are just 5-4 in the last nine games however and the last four wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams in the Lakers, Bulls, Grizzlies, and Kings and only Saturday’s win over the Lakers came by more than eight points.

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At 6-17 Dallas might appear to be one of the worst teams in the NBA but the Mavericks have four wins in the past seven games including beating the Milwaukee and Oklahoma City. Despite being 13-9 Denver’s average scoring differential is just +0.6 while Dallas has an average scoring differential of just -3.9 per game despite being 11 games below .500. Denver is just 3-7 S/U and 2-8 ATS on the road this season for a huge disparity for a team that benefits from a natural home court edge playing at altitude. Dallas is actually a stronger defensive efficiency team in this matchup and the home team has won six of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Coming off a prominent home win over the Lakers and now heading out on a road trip makes this a less than ideal spot for the Nuggets while Dallas has been formidable in recent home games with wins and narrow losses against quality teams.  Over the last five games Dallas has allowed just 96.2 points per game while Denver has allowed 106.6 points per game with Dallas +6.2 in scoring while going 3-2 and Denver -6.2 in net points per game despite going 3-2 in that span.

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#101 Kent State +15 over Akron 6:00 PM CT

The Zips stunned Ohio last week even with Thomas Woodson suspended to take the lead in the MAC East and Akron will head to Detroit for the MAC Championship with a win this week. Backup quarterback Kato Nelson had a career performance last week that will be hard to replicate, throwing for four touchdowns and more than 300 yards. The Zips have to face their fierce rival Kent State to win the division title however.

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The Flashes have had a miserable season but actually played a good game last week against Central Michigan despite a misleading 19-point loss. Kent State had a 494-450 yardage edge and a 25-16 first down edge in that game. Despite being a division leader at 5-2 Akron has a scoring differential of only +7 in MAC games, 104 points worse than Ohio’s differential as last week’s win was a significant upset that will be difficult to back up.

The underdog has had some success in this series going 9-4-1 ATS since 2003 and this will be one of the highest lines ever in this matchup. This looks like a mismatch but the statistics can be thrown out the window in a season-finale rivalry matchup and the pressure is squarely on Akron looking to get to the MAC title game for the first time since 2005 as Kent State should have some trickery planned to do anything possible to play spoiler.

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Check out guaranteed college basketball holiday tournament picks for Tuesday night from Nelly’s, Bobby Dalton, and B.E.S.T. Also expect to see football releases for Thursday as early as Wednesday afternoon.

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Free NCAA Hoops Pick Tuesday

#531 Iona +10 over Syracuse 6:00 PM CT

Iona won 22 games last season as the Metro Atlantic tournament champions and they played competitively in a loss Oregon in the NCAA Tournament, with the Ducks an eventual Final Four team. The Gaels start five upperclassmen this season though they have to replace Jordan Washington and a few other seniors. T.K. Edogi (Tulsa) and Zach Lewis (Massachusetts) are transfers that should have a big impact and Rickey McGill will be one of the conference’s top players coming off a fine sophomore season.

The Gaels will be hungry for this opportunity especially following a 0-1 start to the season with a two-point loss at Albany Friday. Albany is a formidable team and that is a tough place to play as the loss won’t look bad by season’s end. Syracuse cruised in the opener against Cornell with a 77-45 win but this should be a much more difficult game. The Orange didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament last season and this year’s team is leaning on several freshmen that will have some inconsistency. Cornell shot just 15 percent from 3-point range against Syracuse as the Gaels should have a better opportunity to have long range success. Iona plays at a fast pace but doesn’t turn the ball over often and this group will be an upset threat at the Carrier Dome.

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#102 Miami, OH -7 over Akron 6:30 PM CT

Hopes of being the MAC East champion ended last week for Miami, losing at Ohio Tuesday night despite posting 448 yards on one of the MAC’s better defenses. The Redhawks need to win out to return to a bowl game, something they did last season after starting 0-6. Akron is tied with Ohio at 4-1 in the MAC East with the upcoming head-to-head game likely to determine the title.

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Akron blasted Miami 35-13 last season although the Zips only had 299 yards in that game. Gus Ragland could return for the Redhawks although Billy Bahl has shown improvement the past two weeks and Miami is a promising threat against a Zips squad that is posting just 3.5 yards per rush this season with Miami also having a better run defense.

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In five MAC games Miami has outscored Akron by five points despite the contrasting records and Akron has been out-gained in all five road games despite winning two of those games. The big win over Western Michigan featured a production deficit of 211 yards for the Zips and recall that Saturday game was delayed to Sunday to create an unusual situation.

FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff and an injury-depleted Ball State team are the only teams Akron has had more yardage against while Miami has out-gained seven of nine foes this season including all five MAC opponents. Even Notre Dame only had an edge of 126 yards against the Redhawks as this team has a high ceiling despite some tough breaks this season with injuries and defensive scores allowed. This should be a great opportunity for Miami to snap a four-game slide in this series regardless of who is at quarterback.

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Free NBA Pick Tuesday

#707 Indiana Pacers +12 over Minnesota Timberwolves 7:05 PM CT

The Wolves have a great roster and could be very good this season but it may take some time for this group to hit its stride. The 2-1 start in encouraging but the Wolves lost by eight to a Spurs team without Kawhi Leonard and the wins have come by three and two points with the Sunday night win over Oklahoma City coming in dramatic fashion, and at least according the league review, illegally.

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This could be a dangerous follow up game with the Pacers looking formidable this season. Indiana is just 1-2 but the losses have been competitive games. Indiana is pushing the tempo this season with 115 points per game so far this season. Myles Turner is out tonight and he has missed the two losses for Indiana thus elevating this spread as Turner is one of the bright young stars in the game.

Victor Oladipo has blossomed in this style of play and this will be a big game for a pair of former Timberwolves, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson. Minnesota still has marginal 3-point shooting despite the additions of Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler who are both hitting just 33 percent so far this season.

Minnesota was a double-digit favorite just four times last season and while in midseason form this group might be deserving of that kind of price, right now the mistakes and discontinuity have been clear with just a 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio and ranking as a middle-of-the-pack team in offensive and defensive efficiency while the Pacers have been a top 10 offensive team so far.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#968 Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) -130 over Seattle Mariners (Ramirez) 6:05 PM CT

The Orioles are starting to look very much alive in the AL Wild Card picture and a turnaround for the pitching staff has been the primary reason. Wade Miley, Kevin Gausman, and Dylan Bundy have all bounced back from mid-season struggles and Bundy gives Baltimore a great chance to win tonight. In August Bundy is 3-0 with an 11.0 K/9 and a 2.67 ERA and he has been a solid pitcher at home all season long.

Bundy is very tough on right-handed batters and he should get great support with Baltimore 15-11 this month behind nearly 6.0 runs scored per game. Baltimore has won five straight games getting a narrow win last night to start this series and the formidable offense owns an .893 team OPS in that five-game run. Baltimore has hit 47 home runs in the past 25 games and the Orioles are 39-26 at home on the season.

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Seattle was aggressive in making some roster moves to stay in the wild card hunt despite being buried in the AL West race but injuries to the pitching staff have made it hard for the Mariners to keep up. Seattle is 23-19 since the All Star break but they have been outscored by 20 runs in that span and fatigue has shown up now in the fourth city on a long east coast road trip with the Mariners losing the past three games. The team has just a .736 team OPS the past 24 games with only 4.1 runs scored game.

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Erasmo Ramirez rejoined the Mariners in late July, starting the season with the Rays but he has had mediocre results all season with a 4.52 ERA and a 6.9 K/9. With Seattle his ERA is 3.76 but with a 4.91 FIP and just a 6.1 K/9. As usual the Orioles still have an elite bullpen including a 1.70 relief ERA the past 10 games and Bundy clearly has a higher ceiling on the mound tonight.

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Nelly’s Baseball is rocking three straight winning weeks with a 12-5, +7.35* run since August 11 – join us for our next guaranteed pick on the diamond for Tuesday night. Bobby Dalton is also having success with his August baseball picks going 8-3 his last 11 including a 6-1 run in 10* Best Bets. Join him for an interleague Best Bet Tuesday!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#911 Colorado Rockies (Hoffman) -130 over San Francisco Giants (Cain) 9:15 PM CT

With the Rockies losing six games in a row there is a reasonable road favorite price on Colorado tonight in San Francisco despite these teams being separated by 19 games in the standings and 136 runs in scoring differential. Colorado is 25-17 on the road and while the Giants have played better at home they are just 15-21 on the season even after last night’s surprising 9-2 win. San Francisco reached nine runs with only four extra-base hits last night, incredibly getting seven hits with runners in scoring position. Jeff Hoffman is 4-1 in six starts this season and while his ERA is 4.29 his FIP is just 2.86. He owns a glowing strikeout rate of 9.6 K/9 with a better than 4:1 K/BB ratio and away from Coor’s Field his ERA is 1.33. Against one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in one of the best pitching ballparks in baseball Hoffman is a strong candidate for dominant outing with MLB’s second best defense behind him. On a lousy team Matt Cain is earning his barely hefty paycheck by at least eating innings but in 15 starts his ERA is 5.54 with a similar FIP. Cain allowed just two runs in Colorado two starts back but he allowed nine hits in that game for some great fortune. He has allowed five or more runs in four of his last six starts and while his home numbers are respectable he has still allowed 10 runs in his last three home starts and has taken a loss in six of his last seven outings. San Francisco is 18-34 vs. right-handed starters this season and last night’s win snapped a 10-0 run in this matchup this season for the Rockies. The Giants have a .667 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season and in the last 10 games the once great San Francisco bullpen owns a 9.49 ERA. In that span the Rockies are batting .288 with 5.4 runs per nine while San Francisco is batting .236 with a 3.6 runs per nine vs. right-handers as this should be an ideal opportunity for the Rockies to get back in the win column with a greatly reduced price considering Colorado was -190 vs. Cain less than two weeks ago in a 5-1 win.

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