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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#974 Kansas City Royals (Duffy) +120 over Minnesota Twins (Gibson) 7:15 PM CT

The Royals are heading for a very rough season but the lineup has shown some life with a .270 team average the past month, towering over a .237 mark for the Twins. Minnesota held on for an 8-5 win Monday night to open this series despite the Royals having more hits. Three runs came on a blooper double in the eighth inning that proved to be the difference with Kansas City going 4-19 with runners in scoring position.

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Kyle Gibson has strong road numbers this season but he has been consistently mediocre of late and hasn’t won a game since his first start of the season in late March. He has allowed 15 runs in his last five starts and his BB/9 of 4.3 is a concern.

Danny Duffy looked like one of the AL’s better pitchers going 12-3 in 2016 and he was solid last season for the Royals. His 2018 numbers have been disastrous with a 6.14 ERA so far but Duffy still has the pedigree of a much better starter. He has been burned by 14 home runs this season which is much less of risk against this Minnesota lineup and he has made only two of his last eight starts at home as he hasn’t been able to find a great rhythm with his only home start in May coming against the Yankees. Duffy has a career ERA of just 2.49 vs. the Twins with only one career loss in 13 starts vs. Minnesota.

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The Twins have a bullpen edge but the Royals continue to produce at the plate with an average of five runs per game the past seven contests while the Twins have scored five or more runs twice in the past 17 games.

The NBA Finals commence on Thursday – Nelly’s enters the Finals having won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs. Bobby Dalton won a Game 7 10* on Monday and is on a 33-17 run in playoff side plays!

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Nelly’s hit a solid underdog on the diamond Monday night plus in 4 of 7 weeks this season. Bobby Dalton has won 8 of his last 9 National League picks – check out daily MLB offers!

 

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#913 Los Angeles Angels (Richards) -105 over Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 6:05 PM CT

J.A. Happ has conventional power lefty splits with dominant numbers vs. left-handed batters but great struggles vs. right-handers, allowing a .259 batting average against with a .340 wOBA. Happ also has struggled at the Rogers Centre with a 5.40 ERA on the season and his 11.4 K/9 doesn’t look sustainable. Facing a lineup filled with quality right-handed bats Happ could be in line for a marginal start having allowed 14 runs in his past four home outings.

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While the Angels have faded from a hot April pace the team is getting great numbers in a comeback season for Garrett Richards. With a 10.2 K/9 and a 3.47 ERA Richards is looking like the front-line starter the Angels need. He has a very low strand rate but is getting groundballs and strikeouts and he has pitched extremely well on the road where the Angels are actually 14-4.

Toronto has dropped seven of the last eight with the offense topping five runs only once in the past 16 games. Both teams have struggled at the plate and with relief pitching in recent games but the situation may be direr for Toronto with numerous injuries leaving the roster quite thin. The Jays are actually just 11-15 at home this season and this should be a favorable matchup for the superior Angels team.

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Nelly’s Baseball has won four of six weeks this season – don’t miss Tuesday’s MLB guarantee. Bobby Dalton was 3-0 on the diamond Monday night as well!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#904 Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) -105 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) 6:05 PM CT

Arizona leads the NL with a 15-6 record but only a modest +31 scoring differential. Arizona has only played two games outside of the division however with most of the NL West rivals off to slow starts. Robbie Ray was a big part of Arizona’s rise last season winning 15 games with great strikeout numbers but he wound up with a FIP nearly a run higher than his ERA and so far this season his struggles have grown with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.30 FIP.

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Ray has faced the weak-hitting Giants in two of his starts as there is valid concern for the left-hander with Arizona’s rotation now being stressed with the season-ending injury to Taijuan Walker. Philadelphia presents a difficult matchup for Ray with the Phillies 5-0 vs. left-handed starters this season and 10-0 in games outside the division. Philadelphia is also 9-1 at home this season while scoring 7.8 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching this season.

Arizona has actually hit just .217 while scoring only 3.6 runs per nine vs. right-handers despite the big names in the lineup and the successful start to April. At nearly 26 Vince Velasquez is no longer the highly regarded prospect he was when he was acquired ahead of the 2016 season but he is a candidate to show great improvement on last season’s tough campaign. So far his FIP is just 2.24 this season with a 10.1 K/9 despite taking two losses. After a tough opening start he has pitched well in three straight quality starts and this will be just his second home start of the season where his numbers have been stronger in his career.

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Nelly’s has won three NBA Playoff picks the past three days and we have hit over 60% this season. Get tonight’s guaranteed pick for only $15. Bobby Dalton has a TRIPS-2-WIN 2/3 OFFER tonight featuring two 10* Best Bets for $24.99!

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Free NBA Pick Tuesday

#504 Atlanta Hawks +9.5 over Philadelphia 76ers 6:35 PM CT

Atlanta hasn’t looked like one of the worst teams in the NBA of late with back-to-back road wins over Eastern Conference playoff teams. Only once in the last six games have the Hawks lost by more than 10 points and with red hot Philadelphia in town this season finale should provide some incentive for the Hawks to finish strong.

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This is an important game for Philadelphia looking to hold on to the #3 spot in the Eastern Conference riding 14 consecutive wins. Tomorrow’s game looms larger however hosting Milwaukee for a home finale in game that will carry great stakes for the Bucks as well.

Philadelphia is just 9-9 ATS the past 18 games as a road favorite and they are 2-4 ATS this season as a road favorite of 6 or more points. The Hawks brass won’t want to win this game but the players should give a good effort and both meetings were decided by 10 points this season, right near this number.

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Bobby Dalton is on a 28-14 all sport run – don’t miss a NBA 10* tonight or his next MLB pick (8-3 this season). Nelly’s is hitting nearly 64% in NBA picks this season, get Tuesday’s side play or join for the playoffs!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#527/528 ‘UNDER 139.5’ Indiana at Nebraska 8:00 PM CT

Indiana has won four in a row but they have beat the four worst teams in the Big Ten in that stretch and they were fortunate in a very narrow comeback win at Iowa on Saturday winning 84-82. Indiana made 14 3-point shots in Saturday’s win hitting 58 percent from beyond the arc. Now 9-7 in Big Ten play Indiana has made a nice run back to respectability but they are 0-5 vs. the top five teams in the Big Ten which Nebraska is a part of and the recent wins with improved offensive numbers have conveniently been against the worst defensive teams in the conference.

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Nebraska’s NCAA Tournament hopes took a big blow with a loss at Illinois on Sunday, snapping a six-game streak. Nebraska is 11-5 in Big Ten play but like Indiana most of the wins came against the bottom of the conference. Nebraska is 13-1 S/U at home however with a perfect 7-0 Big Ten record at home including beating Michigan. The lone loss on the season in Lincoln came by one-point against Kansas and three of the last four home wins have come by double-digits. The season is on the line for Nebraska tonight and after allowing more than 70 points for the sixth time in 16 Big Ten games the defensive intensity should be escalated.

These teams are both in the top five in defensive efficiency in Big Ten play while being two of the worst shooting teams with both teams below 35 percent from 3-point range. Indiana is also a below 64 percent free throw shooting team and Nebraska has featured the Big Ten’s best 3-point defense and the second best effective field goal defense in the conference. These teams combined for 170 points last season in a road win for Nebraska but that was with a much different Hoosiers team under Tom Crean. Even with 84 points Saturday Indiana has averaged just 65 points per game on the road in conference play and they averaged just 60 points per game against the defenses that rank ahead of Nebraska.

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Nelly’s is 18-6 in college basketball since February 1 – get tonight’s Big XII play for $15 or get all picks through Feb. 28 for $99. Big E won a 10* Biggie last night, tonight’s 10* is just $9.94 with the Big E on a 9-4 run and a 48-28 run. His next 20* goes Thursday. Bobby Dalton is 8-2 in his last 10 Best Bets – get a 10* Best Bet tonight for just $19.99!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#537 Northern Illinois +12.5 over Toledo 6:00 PM CT

Toledo leads the MAC West with an 8-2 league record but the Rockets have faced one of the lighter schedules in MAC play and they have lost by double-digits in both defeats against two of the only quality teams they have faced in conference play. Toledo has a good offensive team and is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation but the defense has struggled.

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Toledo has just three home wins all season by more than 13 points and the Rockets have lost S/U three times at home this season. Northern Illinois has gone just 10-13 with a 3-7 mark in MAC play but most games have been competitive while having to face six of the last nine conference games on the road for a tough early season path in the conference. The Huskies won at Toledo last season and lost the home meeting in overtime as this has been a tight series in recent meetings.

Northern Illinois has a very low turnover rate while shooting effectively in the paint and from the free throw line as this is a team that takes very few 3-point shots. A slower tempo for the Huskies can help to magnify this spread and the Rockets create turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the nation as there are not likely to be many extra opportunities in this matchup. The recent loss of Missouri transfer Willie Jackson can’t be understated as while he didn’t play a great deal of minutes he was an efficient contributor for the Rockets.

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Nelly’s Basketball is 8-0 in February and 57-36 since December 3. We have gone 25-9 collectively in our 2-for-1 offers this season with nine 2-0 results. Get two college picks for only $15 Tuesday with a guarantee to at least split. Big E is 14-8 the last 16 days for huge profits with four straight 20* wins. His next 20* goes Thursday but he has a 10* Biggie for Tuesday night. Bobby Dalton has his next Trips-2-Win 2/3 offer in college basketball led by a 10* Best Bet!

 

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#547 Northwestern +2 over Minnesota 8:00 PM CT

Northwestern was one of the great stories of the college basketball season last year but this year the Wildcats have struggled and are far away from being in contention for the program’s second NCAA Tournament appearance. The Wildcats have nine losses while going just 3-5 in Big Ten play but this stretch of road games could make or break the chances of turning the season around.

The Wildcats are still a strong 3-point and free throw shooting team and the decline of the defensive numbers can be attributed in part to the schedule with five losses to top 25 caliber teams already this season. Northwestern has only one road win this season but this is a favorable opportunity facing a reeling Gophers team.

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After a 13-3 start to the season Minnesota has dropped five of the last six games with Reffie Lynch and Amir Coffey out of action. Coffey did return for Saturday’s 18-point loss to Ohio State but was ineffective with three turnovers and only 11 points. This home game follows three consecutive away games for the Gophers and precedes a week off as this is likely a fatigued team with a shortened depth chart, mostly only with seven major contributors.

Northwestern won by 23 in Evanston in early January and a dramatic shift in the trajectory of this game shouldn’t be expected. The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings between these teams and has been the far superior defensive team in this matchup. Minnesota has three home losses this season and the only Big Ten home wins came against the bottom of the conference as the Wildcats are the team more likely to breakout tonight in a battle of two of the Big Ten’s big disappointments.

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Nelly’s is 42-27 in basketball picks since December 3 including 4-0 the past three days. Don’t miss tonight’s guaranteed college basketball pick. The Big E is on a 23-12 run in basketball picks and his next Biggie will be available for just $9.94 Tuesday. Bobby Dalton has a huge Tuesday card with a guaranteed HIGH FIVE 3/5 guarantee!

 

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Free NBA Pick Monday

#518 Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Denver Nuggets 7:35 PM CT

Denver is looking like a Western Conference playoff threat, actually leading the Northwest Division at 13-9 to sit just ahead of Minnesota and Portland for the moment. The Nuggets are just 5-4 in the last nine games however and the last four wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams in the Lakers, Bulls, Grizzlies, and Kings and only Saturday’s win over the Lakers came by more than eight points.

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At 6-17 Dallas might appear to be one of the worst teams in the NBA but the Mavericks have four wins in the past seven games including beating the Milwaukee and Oklahoma City. Despite being 13-9 Denver’s average scoring differential is just +0.6 while Dallas has an average scoring differential of just -3.9 per game despite being 11 games below .500. Denver is just 3-7 S/U and 2-8 ATS on the road this season for a huge disparity for a team that benefits from a natural home court edge playing at altitude. Dallas is actually a stronger defensive efficiency team in this matchup and the home team has won six of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Coming off a prominent home win over the Lakers and now heading out on a road trip makes this a less than ideal spot for the Nuggets while Dallas has been formidable in recent home games with wins and narrow losses against quality teams.  Over the last five games Dallas has allowed just 96.2 points per game while Denver has allowed 106.6 points per game with Dallas +6.2 in scoring while going 3-2 and Denver -6.2 in net points per game despite going 3-2 in that span.

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#101 Kent State +15 over Akron 6:00 PM CT

The Zips stunned Ohio last week even with Thomas Woodson suspended to take the lead in the MAC East and Akron will head to Detroit for the MAC Championship with a win this week. Backup quarterback Kato Nelson had a career performance last week that will be hard to replicate, throwing for four touchdowns and more than 300 yards. The Zips have to face their fierce rival Kent State to win the division title however.

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The Flashes have had a miserable season but actually played a good game last week against Central Michigan despite a misleading 19-point loss. Kent State had a 494-450 yardage edge and a 25-16 first down edge in that game. Despite being a division leader at 5-2 Akron has a scoring differential of only +7 in MAC games, 104 points worse than Ohio’s differential as last week’s win was a significant upset that will be difficult to back up.

The underdog has had some success in this series going 9-4-1 ATS since 2003 and this will be one of the highest lines ever in this matchup. This looks like a mismatch but the statistics can be thrown out the window in a season-finale rivalry matchup and the pressure is squarely on Akron looking to get to the MAC title game for the first time since 2005 as Kent State should have some trickery planned to do anything possible to play spoiler.

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Check out guaranteed college basketball holiday tournament picks for Tuesday night from Nelly’s, Bobby Dalton, and B.E.S.T. Also expect to see football releases for Thursday as early as Wednesday afternoon.

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Free NCAA Hoops Pick Tuesday

#531 Iona +10 over Syracuse 6:00 PM CT

Iona won 22 games last season as the Metro Atlantic tournament champions and they played competitively in a loss Oregon in the NCAA Tournament, with the Ducks an eventual Final Four team. The Gaels start five upperclassmen this season though they have to replace Jordan Washington and a few other seniors. T.K. Edogi (Tulsa) and Zach Lewis (Massachusetts) are transfers that should have a big impact and Rickey McGill will be one of the conference’s top players coming off a fine sophomore season.

The Gaels will be hungry for this opportunity especially following a 0-1 start to the season with a two-point loss at Albany Friday. Albany is a formidable team and that is a tough place to play as the loss won’t look bad by season’s end. Syracuse cruised in the opener against Cornell with a 77-45 win but this should be a much more difficult game. The Orange didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament last season and this year’s team is leaning on several freshmen that will have some inconsistency. Cornell shot just 15 percent from 3-point range against Syracuse as the Gaels should have a better opportunity to have long range success. Iona plays at a fast pace but doesn’t turn the ball over often and this group will be an upset threat at the Carrier Dome.

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