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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

Bobby Dalton has a guaranteed 10* total for Friday night – $19.99 pay after you win with a bonus 5* included.

Nelly’s has offered a 2/3 offer in MLB just twice this season – going 6-0 on those picks. Get three picks tonight as we try to do it again 2/3 for Friday for just $25!

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#519/520 ‘OVER 220.5’ Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs 7:05 PM CT

Detroit has been on an offensive surge on the current 7-1 streak since early February, posting an average of 118 points per game on that span even with recent games against good defensive teams including Boston, Miami, and Indiana. The ‘over’ has collected in seven of those eight games and while today’s total is several points higher than the home meeting with the Spurs in early January, the elevated number is more than justified.

The ‘over’ is 12-2 in the last 14 Spurs games as a San Antonio franchise known for defense has been struggling mightily. On that ‘over’ run the totals in Spurs games have been at least 219.5 in 13 of the past 14 games but hit an over inflated with a 233.5 number in Brooklyn on Monday. That was the final game of a lengthy road trip for San Antonio spanning both sides of the All Star break.

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San Antonio has allowed at least 107 points in 13 of the past 14 games however and opponents have scored 120 or more in six of the past eight games with an average allowance of more than 122 points per game. San Antonio has been one of the league’s best ‘over’ teams at 38-24 on the season and both of these teams have allowed 48 percent shooting over the past five games.

The January meeting between these teams featured 226 points even with Detroit getting only 14 points at the line at home and connecting at just 28 percent from 3-point range. The Spurs shot well for the game but not from beyond the arc and there were few turnovers and only 221 fast break points in the contest as there was certainly room for more scoring.

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Nelly’s is 4-0 the past three days and we have hit over 63% since early December in basketball. Don’t miss a great opportunity Wednesday night.

Bobby Dalton is on a 12-5 Best Bet run in college basketball and he has posted a 10* Missouri Valley pick for Wednesday – pay after you win.

Big E won last night in college basketball – get daily 10* Biggies for $9.94!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#309/310 OVER 41.5 Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 3:25 PM CT

It is easy to buy into the Nick Foles storyline with the Eagles posting a pair of huge wins the last two weeks to climb back to the edge of the NFC Playoffs. Philadelphia needs Minnesota to lose at home this week vs. a mildly interested Bears team that will likely have to host the Vikings next week as the chances for the Eagles aren’t favorable. Philadelphia has also been out-gained by a combined total of more than 400 yards over the past six weeks despite somehow being 4-2 in that span as the defense has been deteriorated with injuries and hasn’t come close to matching the results of last season’s championship unit.

One of the wins came hosting Washington on Monday night in Week 13 but that 15-point win was very misleading as it was a one-point game in the fourth quarter and Washington had to play most of the contest with a woefully ineffective Mark Sanchez. Washington’s playoff hopes were extinguished last week but under Josh Johnson the Redskins played two very competitive road games vs. tough defenses, out-gaining both Jacksonville and Tennessee for some success against quality defenses.

Washington beat the Jaguars and were right in last week’s game with a Titans team that had a lot on the line. Washington should continue to give a good effort as a divisional home underdog. Both teams have arguably made quarterback upgrades since the meeting four weeks ago and yet this total is even lower than that game and is set to the be the lowest total in this series since 2009.

Nelly’s is on a 20-11 run in NFL action since Week 7 and we have a huge NFL play Sunday with our 3* NFL Game of the Year – get the pick for $50 pay after you win or get it as part of our NFL 2/3 for $55.

Nelly’s won our bowl selection yesterday and went 3-0 in basketball for a third straight Saturday. We have won 15 of our last 16 NBA picks and have turned in a huge December with a 27-11 record with two days to go. Check out Sunday’s Basketball Offer or join us for all picks through Jan. 31 for only $199!

Big E is 10-2 in bowl picks and his 25* Bowl Game of the Year is available for Monday’s schedule – get it for $49.94 pay after you win with the Big E winning his 25* Bowl GOY five straight seasons!

Point Train has a Sunday Night NFL Pick in the Colts/Titans game to build on strong season profits – win for just $19.97!

Maximum hit a 10* in bowl action yesterday and has a 60% guarantee in Sunday’s NFL 5-Pack!

Dalton’s NFL Picks are coming soon and the Big Dog expects Bowl 15* plays Monday and Tuesday! He is plus nearly 30* in bowl action so far!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Minnesota Twins (Stewart) 7:10 PM CT

Spencer Turnbull is a former first round pick and he is getting a look at the MLB level this September. He faced Minnesota last week and allowed six runs but on just six hits and his FIP is only 2.55 in his five MLB innings despite the high ERA. He hasn’t allowed a home run and has allowed just one walk.

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The Twins have a team OPS of just .718 over the past 24 games, down to .670 over the past four games. The Twins and Tigers have averaged just 8.5 runs per game in 16 meetings and cold Autumn conditions are expected in Minneapolis tonight. In 10 of the last 14 games Detroit has scored four or fewer runs and the Tigers have a .670 team OPS the past two weeks, averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

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Kohl Stewart has offered great promise for the Twins down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA in seven appearances, never allowing more than three runs. He pitched six innings with only one unearned run and three hits allowed vs. the Tigers last week and the team’s top pick in the 2013 draft has great potential. In favorable pitching conditions both young arms should have success against marginal lineups Tuesday night.

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Don’t miss Bobby Dalton’s 15* Best Bet Tuesday night in the final week of the MLB regular season! Dalton has won three 10* picks in a row and is 3-1 on 15* picks this baseball season! Get the pick on its own ($39.99) or as part of a guaranteed profit HIGH FIVE offer ($49.99).

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#343/344 ‘OVER 60.5’ Rutgers at Ohio State 2:30 PM CT

Ryan Day won his debut coaching the Buckeyes with Ohio State mostly untested in a 77-31 win over Oregon State. Dwayne Haskins was productive in the passing game while Ohio State rushed for 375 yards and poured it on to earn an improbable cover with a 21-0 fourth quarter. Ohio State won 56-0 at Rutgers last season but the Knights were winners last week beating Texas State 35-7.

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The Knights had four turnovers but freshman Artur Sitkowski was productive in his debut despite the miscues against a better than assumed Texas State defense. Rutgers allowed only one third down conversion in that game however and Ohio State converted 12 of 15 3rd down plays last week against a similarly rated Oregon State squad. Last week’s opener was critically important for the embattled program after a challenging summer while next week’s game with TCU will be on a huge national stage as the intensity particularly on defense could be lacking for the Buckeyes.

Being the Big Ten opener means more for Rutgers who has covered in three of its four Big Ten openers since joining the conference while the Knights went 4-1 ATS in Big Ten road games last season. Rutgers has been outscored 114-0 the past two years in this matchup however as even with an inflated spread the Knights would be tough to support with a freshman quarterback in Columbus.

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There should be valid concerns about the Ohio State defense. Oregon State had to play with a backup quarterback with its starter hurt just a handful of plays into the game and yet the Beavers had 31 points and 365 yards in the first three quarters. Unlike the Buckeyes Oregon State shut it down in the fourth quarter of a decided game when they likely could have added more production and points with a more aggressive approach. Ohio State allowed 5.0 yards per rush to a team in a major transition that was among the nation’s worst teams last season as the Knights will have an opportunity to move the ball and break the scoreless streak in this series and Ohio State is certainly a threat to eclipse this total on its own as well.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 8’ Colorado Rockies (Gray) at Los Angeles Angels (Despaigne) 9:05 PM CT

Odrisamer Despaigne has a 6.35 ERA but a 3.47 FIP this season mainly as a reliever with the Marlins before joining the rotation for the Angels in August. He faced a pair of tough road venues in those outings and this could be his best opportunity for a lengthy outing all season. Despaigne has pitched in 100 games at the big league level with average results and he’ll face a Rockies team with just a .727 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching and a .723 team mark overall the past 25 games.

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Colorado might not need many runs Monday with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray still owns an elevated ERA at 4.67 but his xFIP is 3.12 this season for one of the better marks in the NL. Since a minor league stint Gray has returned from the All Star break with great numbers posting a 2.83 ERA in six starts and yet to take a loss in that span. He has relied less on the strikeout and has found much better results while going deeper into games.

The Angels have been ice cold at the plate with a .578 team OPS in the past five games, scoring a combined 12 runs in those five games and over the past two weeks the team OPS is only up to .694. The ‘under’ has had a 34-29-3 mark in Anaheim this season and both bullpens are capable. Just as Mike Trout has returned Justin Upton is out of the lineup for the Angels with any long shot hopes up in flames this week with six consecutive defeats for Los Angeles. Expect tired teams that both endured disappointing results Sunday and a pair of capable right-handed options to succeed on the mound.

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Bobby Dalton has a MLB 10* Best Bet for Monday night – win with Dalton on the diamond guaranteed to win. Nelly’s is 12-4 in our last 16 MLB selections – join us for an extended subscription.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#953/954 ‘OVER 9.5’ Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Colorado Rockies (Marquez) 2:10 PM CT

German Marquez has been a steady pitcher in the rotation for the Rockies but at home he owns a 6.63 ERA in over 55 innings of work. Foes have batted .303 against him at Coor’s Field with a .913 OPS. Marquez is on a nice six-start run since late June but four of six games came on the road including pitching in a few favorable ballparks. In six of his last 11 starts he has still allowed four or more runs and Pittsburgh has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball in the last month.

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In the past 22 games the Pirates have an .809 team OPS with 5.3 runs scored per game. Pittsburgh has scored at least five runs 13 times in the past 19 games Colorado has allowed 5.1 runs per game so far in August after the pitching staff had a great month of July to climb back in the NL race. In home games the Rockies own a 5.62 bullpen ERA and Marquez has been a high risk pitcher in Denver.

Pittsburgh has a 5.00 bullpen ERA on the road this season and the Pittsburgh debut for Chris Archer was similar to how he has pitched all season, allowing five runs in just over four innings of work. Archer can generate strikeouts but his season ERA is 4.40 and he hasn’t been much more than a league-average pitcher the past three seasons. Left-handers have hit Archer hard this season and Colorado had quality lefties in four of the top seven spots in the lineup last night. Archer also only has pitched at Coor’s Field once, a ballpark averaging 10.6 runs per game on the season.

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Nelly’s Baseball had a winner in interleague action last night – don’t miss Wednesday’s evening selection. Bobby Dalton won his 3/5 offer Tuesday and is featuring a 10* Best Bet for Wednesday night.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#919/920 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy appeared to be on pace to becoming one of the top left-handers in the AL, used as a reliever in the 2014 and 2015 postseasons after being a capable back of the rotation starter. Duffy became a full-time starter in 2016 and delivered a great season. In down year for the Royals last season Duffy still made competitive starts but he has struggled in 2018 for an even worst performing Kansas City squad. His ERA is 4.59 with a 4.98 FIP and his BB/9 has climbed to 4.2. Duffy has a hefty contract through 2021 as he isn’t likely to be dealt even though he has looked the part of a very useful starter of late, allowing posting five starts with one or fewer allowed over his last seven outings. His ERA is actually just 2.73 over his last 10 starts and he has dominated the Twins twice in that stretch, allowing just one run over 12 innings.

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Minnesota owns a .699 team OPS vs. left-handers on the season and while a 9-2 run into the break has kept the Twins hanging on in the AL Central conversation this team is still a candidate to move some pieces at the deadline and the recent rise in production mostly came against the bottom of the AL. Minnesota has just 18 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances this season vs. left-handed pitching.

Jose Berrios represented the Twins in the All Star game but since late April Kyle Gibson has been the team’s top starter. In his last 15 starts his ERA is just 3.23 with solid strikeout marks and few home runs allowed. He posted seven shutout innings vs. the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in late May and Kansas City has a AL worst .666 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens have been a mess to offer some concern in the late innings but off the long layoff the managers will be able to have all of their options at full strength.

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Bobby Dalton picked up +46.0* in June! He has a 20-11 run in Best Bests at the break and has a 10* Best Bet for Friday afternoon! 

Nelly’s has turned in a profit in 9 of 14 weeks this season. We finished the first half 11 games above .500 with nearly +9.0* of profit. Totals are red hot with a 17-7 run at the break while 32-19 (63%) overall since May 28!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#915/916 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) at Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) 6:10 PM CT

Jake Odorizzi has a 3.18 ERA at Target Field this season as so far he has been a positive acquisition for the Twins who despite a disappointing record are still right in the AL Central race 1.5 games behind Cleveland. Minnesota is 8-3 in the past 11 games but the offense has struggled scoring just 15 runs in a split of four games in Anaheim with tonight’s contest a taxing first home game after a long road trip.

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Eddie Rosario has provided a boost of late but the lineup has struggled with Logan Morrison and Byron Buxton still below the Mendoza line and Eduardo Escobar and Joe Mauer cooling off. The turnaround for the Twins has been keyed by a 1.80 bullpen ERA the past 10 games and the good numbers for the Twins vs. left-handers have come through a very small sample.

The Mariners just lost Robinson Cano as the lineup and Seattle’s production has fallen of late, batting just .242 with 3.9 runs per nine over the past 10 games. Wade LeBlanc has a 3.18 ERA so far this season mostly as a reliever while pitching well in a pair of starts in May, going nine innings with just seven hits allowed and only one run scoring. LeBlanc has only allowed four walks in nearly 23 innings of work. These teams played a pair of games in early April in Minnesota with just 37 combined hits and rain is expected tonight in Minneapolis which could keep the numbers down in a matchup of teams that could show some fatigue.

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Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday with baseball and basketball winners – get possible Monday releases by 3:00 PM CT. Bobby Dalton is on a 29-13 NBA Playoff Side play run – win tonight in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals for just $12. Dalton has also won 41 of his last 72 May baseball updates.

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Free NBA Pick Sunday

#505/506 ‘OVER 217’ Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards 5:05 PM CT

All three games in this series have flown ‘over’ the total and the oddsmakers can’t make a major adjustment on the number, though this total is a few points higher than Game 1 and 2 in Toronto. These teams have averaged more than 231 points per game so far in this series and while both teams have shot 50 percent through 12 quarter the numbers haven’t been outrageous outliers.

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Washington’s defense deteriorated down the stretch and now in nine April games the Wizards have allowed triple-digits in every single game. Toronto’s very weak schedule is showing up a bit in the postseason as despite the 2-1 edge the Raptors haven’t been dominant in this series as the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors have a severe disparity in the home and road numbers this season with the defense allowing over 46 percent shooting on the road and nearly 107 points per game on the road. Washington’s defensive numbers don’t improve dramatically at home and in a chippy series in a critical Game 4 there could be extra free throws and this total should once again get ‘over’.

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