Posted on

Free MLB Pick Sunday

#917/918 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 12:05 PM CT

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t had a lot of success since the first half of his first season with the Tigers in 2016. This season Zimmermann missed about six weeks on the DL but overall his campaign has provided steady returns for a Tigers team that offered some competitive results prior to the current 11-game slide. Zimmermann hasn’t taken a loss and he owns a 3.51 FIP on the season in over 41 innings of work. His K/9 is currently its highest since his rookie season in 2009 and he still possesses the great command that has kept him in the big leagues into his 30s.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

J.A. Happ is proving his great 2016 season wasn’t a fluke with strong returns in 2018. He has top 20 numbers in ERA, K/9, and FIP among AL starters and he certainly has a case to be on the AL All Star team for the Blue Jays. Just once in 16 starts has Happ allowed more than four runs. Detroit is able to post a righty-heavy lineup as they did yesterday but right-handers are batting just .222 vs. Happ this season.

Mired in the current losing streak the Tigers are batting .209 with a .582 team OPS the past 11 games, scoring an average of 2.6 runs per game. Detroit has been one of the AL’s top ‘under’ teams at 48-34-2 including 25-14-1 in road games. The Jays are batting just .238 with a 3.9 runs per game over the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching and while both bullpens have had some shaky recent moments this Sunday day game should mirror Saturday’s game, a contest with only 14 combined hits.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday, now 16-4 our last 20 totals and on a 24-13 overall run since late May. Get Sunday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has won Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers the past two days and wrapped up a +46.0 unit gain in June. Don’t miss Sunday’s MLB Trips-2-Win 2/3 with Dalton on an 18-6 AL run!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#913 Los Angeles Angels (Richards) -105 over Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 6:05 PM CT

J.A. Happ has conventional power lefty splits with dominant numbers vs. left-handed batters but great struggles vs. right-handers, allowing a .259 batting average against with a .340 wOBA. Happ also has struggled at the Rogers Centre with a 5.40 ERA on the season and his 11.4 K/9 doesn’t look sustainable. Facing a lineup filled with quality right-handed bats Happ could be in line for a marginal start having allowed 14 runs in his past four home outings.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

While the Angels have faded from a hot April pace the team is getting great numbers in a comeback season for Garrett Richards. With a 10.2 K/9 and a 3.47 ERA Richards is looking like the front-line starter the Angels need. He has a very low strand rate but is getting groundballs and strikeouts and he has pitched extremely well on the road where the Angels are actually 14-4.

Toronto has dropped seven of the last eight with the offense topping five runs only once in the past 16 games. Both teams have struggled at the plate and with relief pitching in recent games but the situation may be direr for Toronto with numerous injuries leaving the roster quite thin. The Jays are actually just 11-15 at home this season and this should be a favorable matchup for the superior Angels team.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s Baseball has won four of six weeks this season – don’t miss Tuesday’s MLB guarantee. Bobby Dalton was 3-0 on the diamond Monday night as well!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#970 Toronto Blue Jays (Garica) -120 over Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) 6:05 PM CT

Wade LeBlanc has made only one start this season going four innings last week without allowing a run. LeBlanc has good season numbers but it has been a very small sample and this should be his most difficult road venue assignment this season. Toronto was no-hit yesterday against a tough left-hander but the season numbers are solid for the Blue Jays vs. southpaws and rebound from the lineup looks possible today.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

LeBlanc will not be allowed to go deep into this game in his second start of the season after mostly pitching out of the bullpen and that leaves a lot of outs for a Seattle bullpen that is well rested but has also struggled on the season. The Mariners have a 4.12 bullpen ERA on the season, up to 4.50 over the past 10 games. In contrast relief pitching has been a strength for Toronto with a 3.03 season ERA.

Jaime Garica has a 6.00 ERA in six starts for the Blue Jays but he has been very good at the Rogers Centre with a 3.94 ERA at home. Right-handers have struggled against Garcia this season and for his career Garcia has been an opposite splits pitcher. He owns a 9.6 K/9 on the season but has had bad luck with eight home runs allowed in 30 innings of work and the veteran should see his numbers climb down in the coming weeks. Despite last night’s result and a slight edge in record for the Mariners, Toronto has the stronger scoring numbers through a far more difficult schedule and the Jays are catching a nice price at home tonight.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Don’t miss Bobby Dalton’s daytime 15* Best Bet for Wednesday – $29.99 pay after you win! Dalton is on a 43-24 interleague run! 

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#920 Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) -110 over Boston Red Sox (Porcello) 6:05 PM CT

J.A. Happ hasn’t matched last season’s success but he has been throwing better than his season line suggests. Happ has a 4.04 ERA over his last six starts to remain on his season pace but his FIP in that run is just 1.98. Impressively he has a 10.9 K/9 in that run and he has not allowed a home runs.

Boston is 60-42 vs. right-handed starters this season but just 15-15 vs. left-handers and while the Red Sox are 17-8 this August, they are just 2-4 the past six games with only 19 runs scored.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” category=”bobby-dalton-baseball,nellys-baseball,nellys-newsletter” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Rick Porcello has endured the opposite fate of fortune compared with last season’s Cy Young campaign, going from 22-4 to just 8-15 so far this season despite pitching on one of baseball’s best teams. Porcello has had tough luck but he isn’t pitching well, with a 4.57 season ERA and he has allowed three or more runs in 13 of his past 16 starts.

Toronto’s offense still features several quality threats and the Blue Jays are a .500 squad vs. right-handers while going just 11-21 vs. left-handers this season. The Blue Jays are still a winning team at home and Toronto is only 7.5 games out of the second wild card spot as the team is still playing hard.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Sunday

#967 Minnesota Twins (Gibson) +130 over Toronto Blue Jays (Biagini) 12:07 PM CT

Joe Biagini failed as a starter for the Blue Jays making 11 starts from May to early July but he’ll be called on for Sunday’s start even though he hasn’t cleared more than two MLB innings since before the All Star break. His ERA is 5.11 on the season and he didn’t exactly excel in his time back in AAA the past three weeks with a 4.27 FIP.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Despite Saturday’s loss the Twins are still the AL’s #2 wild card team sitting just ahead of several other contenders. Minnesota out-hit Toronto 13-10 yesterday in the 10-9 loss with a tough luck 5th inning to blame as the Blue Jays strung together a few weak hits after a barely fair Josh Donaldson home run. Minnesota is 16-10 in August with 5.7 runs per game as the offense has been on fire and the Twins have been a much better road team than a home team this season. Toronto isn’t dead in the wild card race but with a 2-6 run the past eight games the Jays aren’t providing a lot of life with just over a month to go. Toronto has been outscored by 45 runs at home this season and the Jays are sporting a marginal .714 team OPS the last 12 games.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The numbers for Kyle Gibson look rough with a 5.76 ERA but he has rounded into a fine late season run with three or fewer runs allowed in nine of his last 11 starts. He had one of his best starts of the season in his last outing and his K/9 is up to 8.4 over his last six starts. Neither bullpen is dominant but a slight edge is with Minnesota and the early start underdog is worth a look Sunday.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”popularity” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s has locked up a third straight winning week in baseball with a 10-5 run and another big underdog winner on Saturday. We are 23-15 in totals this season including 4-1 our last five. Don’t miss Sunday’s MLB Total.

Big E won his 25* NFL Preseason GOY yesterday while also hitting a 10* NCAA Biggie. Join him for a NFL Sunday 10* for just $9.94. Bobby Dalton missed on his 15* yesterday but is 4-1 in Week 3 preseason picks so far and he is ready to deliver another winner on Sunday.

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#965 Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) -105 over Tampa Bay Rays (Pruitt) 6:10 PM CT

Austin Pruitt has decent numbers since joining the Rays rotation in late July with a 4.45 ERA but strikeouts have been rare, posting only 13 in his last four starts, spanning over 25 innings. He has allowed 31 hits in just over 30 innings in his last five starts and on the season he has shown no preference for pitching at home with a 5.13 ERA and foes batting .302 against him. On the season right-handed batters are hitting .338 against Pruitt. For most of the season the Rays have been a playoff contender while the Blue Jays have not been but right now the teams are only two games apart in the AL East standings.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Toronto has a winning record in August despite the current four-game slide which has feature three straight one-run defeats. Over the past 24 games Toronto owns a steady .762 team OPS and the Jays have their ace on the mound tonight. Marcus Stroman has had a fine season despite the struggles of his team, getting his ERA down to 2.99. Over his last 10 starts that mark falls to just 2.03 with a nearly 66 percent groundball rate. The Rays have scored just 53 runs in going 8-12 so far in August for fewer than 2.7 runs per game on average. The Rays have a .657 team OPS the past 25 games and Stroman is in the more favorable matchup with both teams posting great recent bullpen results. ‘Under’ might also be a worth a look in this game but the Jays are Stroman have a favorable road favorite price vs. the suspect numbers of the unproven Pruitt.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”random” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s Baseball cashed a +170 underdog last night, now 8-4 our last 12. Dalton has won three of his last four MLB 10* Best Bets including a 10* winner last night. Don’t miss Wednesday night baseball offers:

Big NFL Preseason games are expected this weekend from Bobby Dalton and the Big E – keep posted this weekend in Week 3!

 

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Monday

#915/916 ‘UNDER 10.5’ Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada) at Chicago White Sox (Shields) 7:10 PM CT

It is easy to look at the starters in this Monday night matchup and expect big numbers but these are a pair of depleted offenses that have some of the worst production numbers in baseball. James Shields owns a 5.86 ERA on the season in 10 starts and he has allowed at least three runs in six straight starts. He nearly had a quality start against the Blue Jays earlier this season however and he has slightly better numbers at home. Toronto owns a .722 team OPS on the season for one of the AL’s worst marks despite the team still carrying the perception of being an offensive force. In the past 23 games Toronto is batting .236 with just 4.3 runs scored per game.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” category=”nellys-phone-service” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The numbers are just as bad for the White Sox with a .708 team OPS on the season vs. right-handed pitching and Chicago traded away one of its best hitters yesterday. In the last 20 games Chicago has averaged just 3.2 runs scored per game and in the last week Chicago is batting just .194 as a team with only 3.0 runs per game. Marco Estrada owns a 5.43 ERA but with a 4.51 FIP and he owns a 9.6 K/9 rate. Estrada has had few dominant outings this season but this should also be one of his most favorable opportunities. There are issues for both bullpens but this will be the highest total in this series in the last three years despite both offenses being at low points and Guaranteed Rate Field has averaged just 9.3 runs per game. In the past 10 games both teams are batting in the .210s and this number won’t be easy to reach to start the series.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”random” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Friday

#966 Toronto Blue Jays (Liriano) -120 over Houston Astros (Musgrove) 6:05 PM CT

Francisco Liriano had a fine 2015 season which helped the Pirates to one of the best records in baseball but his decline this season was a big part of keeping Pittsburgh deep in the wild card chase. The Pirates wound up dealing Liriano to Toronto and the Blue Jays got a solid first outing from the veteran who has plenty of experience in the American League. Liriano is still getting 9.1 K/9 this season and while walks are an issue at times he has allowed four or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Four runs allowed isn’t a great outing but now with a formidable offense supporting him that might allow Liriano to find the win column with much more frequency. Joe Musgrove has dazzled in two outings for the Astros but this will be his first road outing and it comes against a lineup that is capable of crushing right-handed pitching. Musgrove was a 1st round pick in 2011 ironically drafted by the Blue Jays as the scouting report should be strong in the Toronto clubhouse. A Houston lineup that has been struggling mightily had a huge Thursday with 25 runs scored in a double-header catching a huge break as Wednesday’s near-certain loss was washed away. The Astros are just 17-20 vs. left-handed starters this season and this could be a worn-out squad that has lost six of the last seven meetings with the Blue Jays. This is also a short favorite price on a Toronto team that is 34-25 at home including 15-6 in the last 21 home games.

[displayProduct type=”box” sort=”popularity” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” box=image,title,price,button,excerpt]