Posted on

Free MLB Pick Thursday

‘OVER 8.5’ Tampa Bay Rays (Snell) at New York Yankees (German) 6:05 PM CT

Blake Snell deserves to be an All Star with a breakout season at age 25. Snell is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA but his FIP is a full run higher and he has been lucky with an 85 percent strand rate. It is tougher to get away with base runners against a powerful Yankees lineup that is 15-4 this season vs. left-handed starters.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Domingo German is actually older than Snell but the New York rookie has struggled in his opportunity in the rotation. German is yet to pick up a MLB win in now 18 appearances the past two seasons including six starts this season. His ERA is 5.32 and while his K/9 is strong at 10.1 he owns a high walk rate and has allowed a lot of home runs. New York is clearly one of MLB’s top offensive teams while the Rays are a better hitting team than most likely assume.

The Rays own the seventh best team average in MLB and while New York has hit 44 more home runs than Tampa Bay the scoring averages have been similar in recent weeks. New York’s recent decline in production has been schedule-related with a long road trip to start June and several tough pitching matchups. The ‘over’ has hit in five of the past eight Rays games and the ‘over’ is 19-13-1 in New York home games with an average of nearly 10 runs per game.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s is 11-5 in our last 16 MLB picks. Bobby Dalton is on an 11-5 run in 10* Best Bets. Don’t miss the next MLB winners!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Saturday

#925 Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) +130 over Tampa Bay Rays (Snell) 3:10 PM CT

The 2018 numbers for Felix Hernandez don’t fit in with the bulk of his great career but this is a ballpark he had success in with a 2.50 career ERA and he had one of his best starts of the season vs. this Rays lineup on Sunday, allowing one run over eight innings. Hernandez has won four of his last six decisions and still possesses adequate strikeout ability. His walk rate is elevated but he has allowed only four walks over his past three starts and one ugly early April road starts skews his away numbers.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Blake Snell is probably an All Star for the Rays right now with a 2.36 ERA and seven wins in 13 starts. His K/9 is 10.4 and he has now allowed zero earned runs in three consecutive starts. Snell has pitched seven innings just twice in 13 outings however and he has been flat out lucky with a .229 BABIP and an 84 percent strand rate. Snell already has the most wins in a season of his career in 2018 but there is little about his results the past two seasons to suggest his 2018 breakout is sustainable. Snell has impressive numbers at home but the Mariners will get a second look at Snell in a week’s time.

A lot has gone right for the Mariners as the surprise AL West leaders but with a 24-12 record since May 1 this team continues to excel despite the negative early season headlines. Being 20-9 in one-run games and 6-0 in extra-innings games has helped but an elite bullpen deserved credit while the lineup has featured one of the league’s most consistently productive units. Tampa Bay has also hit well for average but the Mariners have more home run potential while also being much less strikeout-prone and this is a rare underdog price on one of baseball’s top performers given that Seattle is 13-8 vs. left-handed starters on the season while scoring more than 5.0 runs per nine vs. southpaws.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s has hit six of our last seven MLB Totals – get Saturday’s Daytime Delivery Total for just $15! Bobby Dalton is 8-3 in his last 11 MLB 10* Best Bets – get Saturday’s MLB card!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Saturday

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) +110 over Baltimore Orioles (Cobb) 5:35 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Rays out-hit the Orioles 15-10 last night but wound up losing by five runs in a game where they had three times as many at-bats as Baltimore with runners in scoring position. The Rays left five times as many runners on base and the Orioles turned two huge rally-killing double plays in the game with a two out grand slam from Manny Machado the key play in the result for the Orioles.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Rays are still 5.5 games and a 57 runs superior to the Orioles in the standings and Baltimore is just 8-11 at Camden Yards. Somehow winning three games in a row leaves the Orioles as the favorite tonight in Game 2 of today’s double-header. While there is some risk getting involved before knowing the Game 1 outcome, the Rays have Chris Archer on the mound in the afternoon game and while he has had mixed results he should be counted on for a sustained start. The Orioles are countering with the MLB debut of David Hess with far more potential variance in his outcome and the toll on the Baltimore bullpen.

Alex Cobb was picked up by a panicked Orioles team late in spring training and the move has not paid off with a 7.61 ERA and no wins in five starts for Cobb. Facing his former team could be a challenge as the Rays scored five runs and had 10 hits against him at Oriole Park in late April and Cobb has just a 4.2 K/9 this season despite being the favorite in this matchup. Matt Andriese has been a steady fill-in starter for the Rays in recent years and his numbers this season are excellent with a 10.5 K/9 while allowing just three walks in more than 20 innings of work. His FIP is only 2.04 and while he isn’t likely to go deep in this game he has had a few longer relief outings and his starting experience could push him to a longer start tonight. The winning streak for the Orioles isn’t likely a great sign of things to come especially with a very fortunate result last night and the underdog Rays are worth a shot in Game 2.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s has won in three of four MLB weeks this season – get tonight’s TOTAL for $15! Bobby Dalton is on a 51-35 Trips-2-Win MLB run – win 2/3 tonight with the Big Dog!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#965 Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) -105 over Tampa Bay Rays (Pruitt) 6:10 PM CT

Austin Pruitt has decent numbers since joining the Rays rotation in late July with a 4.45 ERA but strikeouts have been rare, posting only 13 in his last four starts, spanning over 25 innings. He has allowed 31 hits in just over 30 innings in his last five starts and on the season he has shown no preference for pitching at home with a 5.13 ERA and foes batting .302 against him. On the season right-handed batters are hitting .338 against Pruitt. For most of the season the Rays have been a playoff contender while the Blue Jays have not been but right now the teams are only two games apart in the AL East standings.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Toronto has a winning record in August despite the current four-game slide which has feature three straight one-run defeats. Over the past 24 games Toronto owns a steady .762 team OPS and the Jays have their ace on the mound tonight. Marcus Stroman has had a fine season despite the struggles of his team, getting his ERA down to 2.99. Over his last 10 starts that mark falls to just 2.03 with a nearly 66 percent groundball rate. The Rays have scored just 53 runs in going 8-12 so far in August for fewer than 2.7 runs per game on average. The Rays have a .657 team OPS the past 25 games and Stroman is in the more favorable matchup with both teams posting great recent bullpen results. ‘Under’ might also be a worth a look in this game but the Jays are Stroman have a favorable road favorite price vs. the suspect numbers of the unproven Pruitt.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”random” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s Baseball cashed a +170 underdog last night, now 8-4 our last 12. Dalton has won three of his last four MLB 10* Best Bets including a 10* winner last night. Don’t miss Wednesday night baseball offers:

Big NFL Preseason games are expected this weekend from Bobby Dalton and the Big E – keep posted this weekend in Week 3!

 

Posted on

Nelly’s Free MLB Pick Thursday

 

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) -115 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Taillon) 6:05 PM CT

Chris Archer is back to being one of the better right-handed starters in the AL this season after a down 2016 campaign. Archer has pitched even better than his solid traditional numbers appear as he owns the fourth lowest FIP among all 77 qualified MLB starters at 2.88 even if his ERA is a full run higher. Archer has the second best K/9 in the AL and while the Pirates are a better hitting team vs. right-handed pitching they still boast just a .718 team OPS vs. right-handers which is the fourth worst mark in the NL. Tampa Bay is crushing right-handed pitching with a .809 OPS that barely trails the Astros and Yankees on top of the AL. The Rays are 32-22 vs. right-handed starters while going 6-2 so far in interleague games. Jameson Taillon has made three June starts after a six week absence due to a cancer diagnosis and while his future looks bright he is overvalued in a matchup against one of the top established pitchers in baseball. Taillon owns steady numbers but a FIP a half a run higher than his ERA is a red flag as is a very high strand rate and an unusually low home run rate. Taillon actually hasn’t pitched that well at PNC Park with a 4.22 ERA on the season and right-handed batters own a .278 average with a robust .845 OPS against him this season. Ultimately getting the Rays vs. a right-handed pitcher at near-even pricing with Archer on the mound is a great opportunity even with a bullpen edge for the Pirates and a slight losing road record for the Rays on the season.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Saturday

Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) -105 over Texas Rangers (Griffin) 5:10 PM CT

Most assumed that Jake Odorizzi would finish the 2016 season on a contender and many likely wish they had dealt for the still only 26-year old right-hander given that he owns a 1.66 ERA while going 4-0 since the All Star break. He owns a nearly 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that run of six starts and he has faced several formidable AL lineups in that run. He has a daunting task Saturday with the AL-leading Rangers in town but Texas is just 14-13 vs. the AL East this season. The Rangers are also only 33-30 in road games heading into this series, going just 12-15 the past three road trips. A.J. Griffin had a strong start to the season for the Rangers but since the break he owns a 6.06 ERA with a 6.88 FIP. He has allowed 34 hits in 32 innings in those six starts with 10 home runs allowed. The Rangers had appeared to shore up their bullpen midseason but that has been an area of weakness of late and a two-inning start from Lucas Harrell on Tuesday set the team back with five relievers needed to finish that extra-innings game. Tampa Bay is 12-8 in the last 20 games as this is a team that can play spoiler down the stretch and there appears to be a big edge on the mound tonight for the hosts.

[displayProduct type=”table” category=”nellys-football” sort=”newness” perpage=”5″ bordercolor=”#eeeeee” table=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

 

 

 

 

Posted on

Free MLB Pick – Wednesday, May 11

#919 Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) +110 over Seattle Mariners (Walker) 2:40 PM CT

In his first four starts of 2016 spanning not quite 20 innings of work Chris Archer allowed 30 hits and 18 runs. IN three starts since he has allowed 11 hits and two runs in nearly 19 innings of work as he appears to have his command back. Two of the recent excellent outings came in formidable matchups with Baltimore and Toronto and he is still posting 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed seven home runs and 41 hits but Archer appears poised to re-gain his form from last season when he was one of the top pitchers in the AL. Taijuan Walker owns a great 1-97 ERA this season as he looks to back up last season’s breakthrough season and with just three walks allowed the control for the still just 23-year old has been sharp. Walker left his last start early with neck spasms so there is some concern about his ability to deliver a long outing Wednesday afternoon. The road team has had a lot of recent success in this series and Archer was listed at -135 pitching in Seattle in a 3-1 win last June as his slow start has put some value on one of the AL’s most impressive pitchers.

 

[displayProduct type=”list” sort=”newness” perpage=”3″ list=image,title,price,button,excerpt]