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Free NFL Pick

#454 Buffalo Bills -10 over Washington Redskins 12:00 PM CT

In an opportunity to affirm itself as a playoff team the Bills failed miserably hosting the Eagles last week. The schedule remains very favorable as a double-digit win season still looks likely in Buffalo with this week’s game another great opportunity. Washington is off an extended week and the defense has played respectably the past two weeks holding San Francisco and Minnesota to only 28 combined points. Washington is adequate against the run and the Bills seem likely to be kicking field goals often as well. Turning to Dwayne Haskins to start could be a problem as Case Keenum avoided big mistakes against elite defenses to keep Washington in those games and Haskins hasn’t proven that capability. Against Buffalo’s quality defense a big play the other direction seems more than likely. Buffalo isn’t accustomed to this type of pricing but the number is sure to climb even further by kickoff.

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Free NCAA Pick Sunday

#873 UC-Irvine +5 over Oregon 8:40 PM CT

Often times when smaller conference squads pull off a Round of 64 upset they are fade material in the following game. UC-Irvine doesn’t fit that mold however as the Big West champions now have 31 wins and haven’t lost since mid-January. The Anteaters were also a very small underdog against the Big XII co-champion Kansas State on Friday and will actually be an even bigger underdog against Pac-12 Tournament champion Oregon Sunday.

Getting a shot at a Pac-12 squad on this stage is very alluring for one of the top defensive teams in the nation, featuring the #5 effective field goal rate defensively nationally, and #1 nationally from 2-point range. That is an ideal trait taking on a Ducks offense that is limited and has minimal 3-point shooting potential. This young Ducks team has momentum with nine straight wins but there is not much quality on that late season run in a very weak Pac-12. Oregon is now in a sixth game in 12 days and there could be a bit of a letdown after Friday’s big win over Wisconsin.

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The Badgers had posted two recent NCAA Tournament wins vs. Oregon and the 18-point final margin was very misleading. Oregon shot 47 percent on 3-point shots while Wisconsin shot 20 percent on 30 3-point attempts. Oregon was crushed on the offensive glass against Wisconsin but was better at the line and had fewer turnovers to pull away. The Ducks won’t have the advantage of being the west coast team in this west coast venue this time and Irvine will be more than comfortable at Oregon’s deliberate pace. Oregon’s front-line won’t have the same success in this matchup and Payton Pritchard had seven turnovers on Friday as really the only backcourt ball handler on the Ducks, he will be liable for more mistakes against a fierce set of perimeter defenders for the Anteaters.

Nelly’s won our 2/3 offer Saturday, now 30-16 in March and 31-13-1 the past 15 Saturdays while on a 30-15 run in NCAA Tournament picks since 2017. We’ve hit 80% on 2* Top Plays this season – get Sunday’s guaranteed 2* for $25 for the Round of 32!

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Big E is 9-5 in the Big Dance and 13-7 in his past 20 picks. Sunday’s 4 x 4 offer is available for $24.94 or get individual Biggie plays for $9.94 each.

Bobby Dalton is 10-5 since Tuesday and 6-3 in the NCAA Tournament while 44-24 since March 1. Don’t miss a 10* Best Bet Total Sunday + a bonus 5* for only $19.99 today!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#120 Cleveland Browns -10 over Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CT

The big play offense for the Browns that has been in good form in the past month stalled last Saturday in Denver but the run defense stepped up for a big road win. Denver still had a lot at stake in that game and the Broncos still possess great defensive talent. Now 6-7-1 the Browns are a threat to finish with a winning record for just the third time since the franchise was brought back in 1999. Cincinnati is on the road the final two weeks in a lost season that started with great promise.

This is a recent rematch as Cleveland led 28-0 early in Cincinnati in Week 12 in the game where Andy Dalton’s season ended. Cincinnati has won the past four meetings in Cleveland with the Browns scoring a combined 20 points in those games but Cleveland has clearly turned the page and will likely emerge as one of the AFC favorites next summer. Jeff Driskel has looked capable leading the Cincinnati offense in recent weeks but this will be a tougher assignment and he will be without Tyler Boyd and a few other key players on offense. Conditions are favorable for late December in Cleveland and the biggest favorite price on the Browns in many years is justified.

Nelly’s is 5-1 in the NFL the past two Sundays and on a 19-10 run. Our NFL 2/3 has won five of the last six weeks and we have gone 3-0 three times since Week 7. We went 2-0 in bowl picks Saturday and 3-0 in basketball picks, now on a 19-5 basketball run including 11 straight NBA wins. Don’t miss football and basketball offers Sunday!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#124 San Francisco 49ers +3 over Denver Broncos 3:05 PM CT

Denver has faced a difficult schedule this season while looking the part against some of the league’s top teams including wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Denver also lost to the Jets however and is is a challenging scheduling spot this week facing a third road game in four weeks and a second straight road contest after winning in Cincinnati last week. The Broncos caught a break on the schedule last week vs. the sinking Bengals drawing the first start from Jeff Driskel.

Denver won 24-10 but Cincinnati had three turnovers and 12 penalties. The Broncos had a solid edge on the ground but fewer first downs while losing the time of possession battle as well. 10 Denver points came on drives of just 33 and 7 yards as there was good fortune for the Broncos. This could be a dangerous game in San Francisco with the Broncos back in the playoff race and now a healthy road favorite for the second straight week. 2-10 San Francisco has a top 10 run defense and the 49ers have had some misleading results this season thanks to a NFL worst -20 turnover margin juggling three different quarterbacks and numerous injuries on offense.

The 49ers are also a top 10 rushing team as Denver isn’t likely to enjoy a big rushing edge in this matchup. San Francisco has out-rushed six of the past eight foes while out-gaining three of the last four foes by at least 97 yards. The 49ers are the more productive passing team with Denver posting only 6.8 yards per attempt and Denver actually allows a higher completion rate and more yards per attempt on defense than San Francisco despite the perception of these defenses. Emmanuel Sanders is also out of action to greatly limit Denver’s passing potential. Denver is on a 5-11 ATS run in road games and this could be the biggest road favorite spread since 2015 for the Broncos.

Don’t miss Nelly’s NFL 2/3 today just $25 – a winning package three of the past four weeks while Nelly’s is on a 10-3 NFL 2* run! Bobby Dalton and Maximum have 60% guarantees in five-game offers today. Point Train has a half-price 6-unit Top Play and Big E has his next 10* Biggie! 

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Point Train Free Pick

 

FREE PICK 364 NY GIANTS +4.5 over CHI BEARS 12:00 PM CT

It would be easy to assume the Giants have quit on the season after a November surge had the team playing for a long shot division title run. Last week in Philadelphia New York did everything right early with a 19-3 edge but wound up falling 25-22 and now 3-8 any lingering playoff hopes have been extinguished. That doesn’t mean New York will mail it in the rest of the season and a team that was just a slight underdog on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions last week will be similarly priced at home vs. a team with a back-up quarterback this week.

Chase Daniel is an experienced option for the Bears and he played reasonably well last week in the comeback win over the Lions on Thanksgiving morning. The Chicago defense broke a 16-16 tie in the fourth quarter however with a defensive touchdown while also intercepting a late Lions drive that could have forced overtime. Behind Daniel the Bears had just 264 total yards against a mediocre Lions team that doesn’t rate much differently than the Giants at this point. With Daniel in the game and without the rushing ability of Mitchell Trubisky Chicago managed only 38 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry.

Struggling on the ground has been at the forefront of the discussion for the Giants this season but New York has been out-gained on the ground by more than 27 yards just once in the past six games. Chicago meanwhile has been out-rushed in three of the past four games. This will be a second straight road game for the Bears ahead of a huge NFC test with the Rams next week and a Giants team that has played almost exclusively close games this season can again play tight with a spread that has climbed above four points.

Don’t miss POINT TRAIN’S 9-UNIT NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR FOR SUNDAY WEEK 13! Point Train has profited in 9 of 12 NFL weeks, going 26-15, +38.3 units!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

 

#265 Miami Dolphins +9 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM CT

The Colts have some momentum with four straight wins to reach 5-5 but they beat teams that are a combined 13-27 in that run while getting to face a back-up quarterback last week against a Titans team that provided the highest quality win for the Colts in that run. Ryan Tannehill is set to return for Miami this week as they won’t again get to face a backup quarterback but some rust is possible for the Miami offense. It is the Colts that will be shorthanded on offense however with Center Ryan Kelly ruled out to shake up the offensive line while only two healthy tight ends are available this week for Indianapolis.

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While the Colts held the Titans to just 10 points last week allowing 28 to the Raiders and 26 to the Jaguars presents some concern for the Indianapolis defense and Tannehill had very capable numbers this season before his injury. 5-5 on the season, the Dolphins are still in the AFC Wild Card picture and Miami enters this critical game off a bye week for a potential advantage. Miami is only 1-4 on the road but they have had to face the Patriots, Bengals, Texans, and Packers in those road losses as this is likely the most favorable road game for the team since a Week 2 win over the Jets.

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The Colts haven’t been a favorite of more than seven points in four years going back to November of 2014 as this is an inflated price to give with a Colts defense that has surrendered 25 points per game through what rates as the second weakest schedule in the league. The Colts have the seventh most passing attempts in the league but Miami has the far superior pass defense in this matchup with the Colts allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of throws this season, the second worst mark in the league only ahead of Tampa Bay’s historically bad pass defense. Those marginal pass numbers have come against Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold in the past five games as while Tannehill isn’t a star quarterback he compares very favorably with that grouping.

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Nelly’s went 3-0 in the NFL last Sunday while 11-5 the past five weeks – get Sunday’s 2/3 for $25! Bobby Dalton went 4-0 Saturday and is on an 8-1 run in football totals while going 12-7 in NFL 10* picks this season – get a 10* total as part of a High Five Offer for NFL Week 12 for $39.99. Maximum Sports has a guaranteed 5-Pack with a 60% guarantee Sunday coming off cashing his 10* Game of the Month yesterday with Ohio State. Point Train has 5-unit Total for Sunday night, coming off a 5-unit winner last night. Big E also has his next 10* Biggie coming off winning his Game of the Month last Sunday!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#267 Arizona Cardinals +15.5 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CT

This is the type of game where it will be dangerous to support a massive favorite with an 8-1 ATS record. The Chiefs continue to amaze but the defense gives up big yardage every week and this will be the biggest Chiefs favorite spread as far as our records go back to 1980.

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While there isn’t a lot to like about a 2-6 Cardinals team with a rookie quarterback on the road given the 23-point difference in scoring per game, the Cardinals have had two weeks to prepare for the matchup. Arizona has held most foes to lower scoring games and Josh Rosen has been arguably the most promising of the rookie quarterback class so far this season.

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Kansas City has a huge game next week in Mexico against the Rams ahead of a late Week 12 bye week as the scheduling spot has to produce some strain this week with next week’s international game certainly being dubbed a potential Super Bowl preview. NFL underdogs of 15 or more points are on a 29-23-1 ATS run since 2005 as well.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#460 Miami Dolphins -3 over New York Jets 12:00 PM CT

The Dolphins have a -45 scoring differential despite being 4-4. The offense has managed to keep pace with Brock Osweiler the past three weeks but the defense has allowed 102 points. Miami is 3-1 at home this season and the Dolphins beat the Jets 20-12 in Week 2. New York fell behind early but had a 362-257 yardage edge, playing on a short week. Since 1998 the Jets are 13-2-4 ATS in Miami but the offense is simply overmatched right now with all of the injuries.

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The Dolphins have topped 100 rushing yards in four straight games while averaging 5.3 yards per rush as Miami has looked like a complete offensive team in contrast to the franchise’s recent reputation. In contrast the Jets are posting just 5.3 yards per play this season and there just isn’t much help for rookie quarterback Sam Darnold who places 31st in the league in QBR and has been responsible for 14 turnovers in eight games. The Jets have been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and Miami has posted a half yard more per carry in this matchup despite having to lean on the passing game more under Osweiler. The maligned well-traveled quarterback has played well in three games since taking over at quarterback despite facing three quality teams and two very formidable defenses.

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The Jets have allowed 260 passing yards per game on 62 percent completions and New York has been out-passed in seven of eight games this season. The Jets have been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season while scoring 34 or more in all three wins to boost the overall numbers but Miami has gotten better with the quarterback change while the Jets have become much worse with its depleted roster since these teams last met in Miami’s 20-12 win in Week 2.

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Nelly’s went 4-1 yesterday – get our NFL 2/3 offer for $25! Bobby Dalton hit a 15* yesterday – he has a 4-pack in the NFL today with later games including a Best Bet (9-5 in 10* picks). Point Train went 3-1 Saturday with a 7-unit winner – don’t miss Sunday’s 7-unit NFL Total Top Play! Big E has had a huge weekend with another 20* winner yesterday – get his 10* Biggie today! Maximum’s 3/5 offer is ready to go coming off a 6-2 Saturday!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#461 Buffalo Bills +7 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM

Normally the drop-off between a rookie quarterback throwing for 139 yards per game and a veteran back-up wouldn’t be significant but Nathan Peterman has simply had disastrous results as a NFL quarterback. That has caused the Bills to bring in veteran Derek Anderson to start this week with the team having a hard time getting behind Peterman.

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Anderson was in Bills camp this summer and was with Carolina when Sean McDermott was an assistant for the Panthers as he should have a good comfort level in the system and will be able to have a productive outing while avoiding the major mistakes Peterman has been susceptible to. The Colts have a former pro bowl quarterback but the running game has been limited and the Colts are allowing 30 points per game in a 1-5 start. Indianapolis has played a tough schedule and is only -28 in scoring differential but the past four weeks the Bills have allowed just 60 points through a difficult schedule and the secondary has created a lot of turnovers.

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Indianapolis is playing up-tempo this season but without the offensive talent to avoid numerous mistakes, already with 13 turnovers on the season. The Colts haven’t been this big of a favorite since 2014 and this year’s 1-5 with a -28 scoring differential and a 0-2 record at home doesn’t look worthy of the price. Take out the first two weeks and the Bills are 2-2 with a nearly even scoring differential despite facing quality teams as Buffalo has not faced a team with a current losing record at this point in the season and the Bills have covered in two of the last three road games.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#267 Buffalo Bills +10 over Houston Texans 12:00 PM CT

The Texans are likely better than the 2-3 record indicates and Deshaun Watson is starting to resemble the start that appeared early last season. This is potential flat spot however following a Sunday night win over Dallas in a huge home game that required a lengthy overtime session. The red zone offense has struggled for Houston and the defense has effectively had to play 10 quarters in the past two games as fatigue could set in, particularly in a matchup that isn’t likely to deliver top focus or effort in-between marquee games with the Cowboys and Jaguars.

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The Bills have taken advantage of flat spots twice this season with a capable defense delivering wins over Minnesota and Tennessee. While scoring has been a challenge for the Bills, Houston has topped 22 points once in five games this season as it won’t take a big number to cover with a double-digit underdog spread. With a total around 40 this is expected to be a low scoring game which magnifies the underdog spread. As bad as the Bills have been in most recent years this is just the third time since 2013 with a double-digit spread, even with Buffalo playing New England twice every year. The Packers weren’t this big of a favorite two weeks ago hosting Buffalo and the 2-3 Texans don’t look worthy of this price.

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Nelly’s had a perfect college day yesterday going 3-0-1 including a dominant 3* Top Play winner on Iowa State. Bobby Dalton is 4-1 in football so far this week. Maximum had another winning day yesterday including a 7-unit winner and Point Train is 5-0 so far this week. Don’t miss Sunday winners from Nelly’s and our featured handicappers!

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