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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#657 Vanderbilt +3.5 over Texas A&M 8:30 PM CT

Vanderbilt completed a stunning 0-18 SEC season losing against short-handed LSU last weekend. The Commodores are still looking for their first win of 2019 yet will be just a small underdog playing close to home in the opening round of the SEC tournament. Texas A&M has six top 100 wins this season including a stunning win over Kansas State. The Aggies beat Vanderbilt by seven at home in early March and finished the SEC season on a decent run with wins in five of the final nine. TJ Starks is out of the lineup with a shoulder injury however as the Aggies are without their top player, though Starks did not play in the win in this matchup less than two weeks ago.

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That was an ugly game with both teams struggling offensively and the Aggies had nearly twice as many free throw attempts while Vanderbilt shot just over 16 percent from 3-point range. In the conference numbers these teams aren’t that far apart statistically despite the contrasting win counts. Vanderbilt played the #1 toughest SEC conference schedule on the season while the Aggies had a much lighter path playing Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee just once each. Vanderbilt played both SEC super powers Kentucky and Tennessee twice each while also doubling up on Florida. Billy Kennedy’s team has been one-and-done the past two years and Bryce Drew will have his team ready to try to find some life in an otherwise lost season with a chance to get a win in Nashville. Kennedy also recently announced that he is resigning after the SEC Tournament, leaving the team with a lot of uncertainty heading into tonight’s game.

Nelly’s won our daytime pick on Wednesday and we are 15-6 so far in March basketball while 40 games over .500 since December 6 with our basketball service. Sign up now for all of March Madness with a 24-12 NCAA Tournament record the past two years! Don’t miss a 2-for-1 offer tonight for only $15!

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Bobby Dalton has FOUR picks in Wednesday’s QUAD Conference Tournament offer including a Best Bet! Dalton hit a 10* last night and is off to an amazing 19-8 start to the month of March! Get on board for a late night pick if you miss the day games!

Big E is 11-8 so far in March and will have 10* Biggies daily for championship week!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#634 Missouri +11.5 over Kentucky 8:00 PM CT

Kentucky asserted itself as a national contender with the 86-69 win over #1 Tennessee last weekend. This could be a dangerous sandwich game with Auburn next on the schedule. Kentucky has won the past five SEC road games but three of those wins came by slim margins while the Wildcats also lost its SEC road opener at Alabama.

At 3-9 Missouri hasn’t come close to matching some of the past recent success of the program but the Tigers haven’t lost by more than 10 points at home since the SEC opener with Tennessee. Missouri played the top rated Vols closely on the road earlier this month and in 12 SEC games the Tigers have only twice lost by more than 12 points. Missouri is a good 3-point shooting team and a good rebounding team and Kentucky’s strong SEC numbers have come through one of the lightest schedules in the league.

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Despite some big scores from Kentucky in recent weeks these are both very slow paced squads as a double-digit road favorite spread will feel even larger in this matchup. There is a letdown risk for the Wildcats off a monumental win and a very young team hasn’t proven it can handle success in the spotlight. Missouri beat Kentucky at home last season and only once in four trips to Columbia since Missouri joined the SEC have the Wildcats won by more than 10 points.

Nelly’s Basketball is 5-0 the past three days with five underdogs that have all won outright. Don’t miss Tuesday’s pick or join us for the rest of the month or our March Madness package to build on great season returns. We are 32 games above .500 since early December with a current 23-10 NBA run and a current 40-23 college run (through Feb. 18).

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Bobby Dalton is 13-7 in his last 20 college basketball picks while 10-4 in February 10* Best Bets. Don’t miss tonight’s 10* and check back for Wednesday’s offer with the Big Dog 20-7 on Wednesdays this season.

Big E was a winner in college basketball last night and his next 10* Biggie is coming soon. Also check back for his next 20* on Thursday in the OVC.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#195 Mississippi +10 over LSU 8:15 PM CT

Ole Miss is 3-1 but since the dominant win over Texas Tech they have struggled needing a comeback vs. Southern Illinois, blown out against Alabama, and struggling to pull away from Kent State last week. Jordan Ta’amu has been sharp in a big play offense but the defense has caused plenty of reason for worry as the competition escalates in the SEC season.

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In a possible letdown spot LSU didn’t dominate but got the win to move to 4-0 against Louisiana Tech, and now is expected to win this week ahead of a four-game gauntlet that will define the season. Joe Burrow has delivered wins but he has completed just 49 percent of his passes and LSU is gaining only 4.1 yards per rush as this is a limited offensive team that won’t want to get into a shootout with the Rebels. LSU has won and covered the past two years but Ole Miss is 14-7 ATS in this series since 1997 as this could be a dangerous game.

The early win over Texas Tech has grown in stature for the Rebels with Texas Tech blasting Oklahoma State on the road last week and being plus 8 in turnovers this season while being positive in every game has helped the Tigers substantially in covering up the struggles of the offense. LSU has allowed 42 points the past two games and an improbable comeback one-point win against Auburn has the Tigers ranked as top 5 team when had LSU lost that game, this squad would be considered another uninspired and good but not great team at the level that has been the norm for the program in the last decade.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#668 Florida -1.5 over Auburn 7:30 PM CT

Florida has lost three in a row with three painfully narrow defeats. The Gators are at home vs. the SEC leaders tonight and the stakes are high with the Gators drifting towards the NCAA Tournament bubble and currently knotted in a six-team group at 8-7 in league play with some huge potential disparities ahead in the conference tournament draw.

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Florida remains one of the top defensive teams in the SEC and an above average offense despite the mediocre record and wins over Gonzaga and Cincinnati have grown in stature as the season has gone on. Auburn has a two game cushion in the SEC with the tiebreaker over Tennessee as there isn’t great urgency in this challenging road game. Auburn beat rival Alabama on Wednesday night by 19 but it was a misleading final score with a tight game through 30 minutes.

The very small Tigers are still adjusting to the loss of Anfernee McLemore and Mustapha Heron is also a question mark after missing Wednesday’s game with illness. The January win over Tennessee is the lone top 25 win of the season for Auburn despite the lofty ranking and projection as Florida’s pair of non-conference wins over heavyweight programs bests anything Auburn has accomplished.

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These teams look much closer statistically than the standings suggest and while Florida has a handful of marginal home losses they also have a number of high quality wins in Gainesville. It has been a long time since Auburn defeated Florida and while this line looks out of place to the average fan looking at the records and standings, the favorite price is more than justified for the Gators.

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#763 Missouri +5.5 over Alabama 8:00 PM CT

Despite losing two star freshmen this season Missouri is on pace to exceed last season’s results by a significant margin. Not likely a NCAA Tournament team the next two weeks present a great opportunity for the Tigers to climb back into that conversation with notable games with Alabama and Kentucky this week. Missouri is just 3-5 in SEC play but two losses came by just two points each as the record could easily be reversed. The shooting numbers are terrific all over the floor with a 39 percent 3-point shooting and 77 percent free throw shooting.

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Missouri has four wins away from home this season and riding three straight defeats this is a critical game for the Tigers. Alabama has a very high ceiling as big wins this month over Auburn and Oklahoma attest. This is a dangerous game in-between last weekend’s huge game with the Sooners and a big matchup this weekend vs. Florida. Alabama only have one home loss on the season but six wins have come by single-digits as there have been many close calls for this team.

Unlike Missouri, Alabama is shooting just 33 percent from 3-point range and just 68 percent at the line for a big contrast. The Tide has an outstanding defense but they haven’t always been able to sustain that intensity for 40 minutes. Alabama has also played arguably the weakest SEC schedule so far this season, yet to play Florida, Kentucky, or Tennessee. Both meetings between these teams were tight last season despite Missouri winning only eight games all season and this looks like a good scheduling spot to fade an erratic young Tide team coming off big national spotlight win with this fairly low spread designed to entice action on the home favorite that everyone just watched beat Oklahoma.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#381 Mississippi State -9.5 over Louisiana Tech 6:30 PM CT

This battle of Bulldogs is the first meeting since 2015, a game MSU won 45-20 in Starkville. Mississippi State had an outrageously dominant showing last week, holding Charleston Southern to just 33 net yards in the shutout win. Louisiana Tech was caught in a tight game with FCS Northwestern State last week as they were tied late into the third quarter before scoring the final 28 points of the game.

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With three straight nine-win seasons Skip Holtz has Louisiana Tech consistently battling as one of the better small conference teams but this year’s squad has few starters back and the passing game was inefficient last week behind sophomore J’Mar Smith.

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Perpetually underrated Mississippi State is playing in a tough venue here with Louisiana Tech 14-2 S/U in Ruston the last three years but few of those wins were of any quality. Nick Fitzgerald has a lot of starting experience and is a dual threat after leading the team is rushing last season. Louisiana Tech had three turnovers on offense last week but was also handed three turnovers back and still didn’t pull away until late in the game.

Allowing nearly 400 yards and 24 points vs. FCS competition doesn’t bode well for taking on this matchup and while the recent success of the program makes Louisiana Tech and intriguing home underdog the roster doesn’t resemble the group that played competitively with Arkansas and Texas Tech last season and despite Ruston’s reputation the Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS the past four instances as a home underdog.

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