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Free MLB Pick Friday

#977 Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) +130 over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 9:05 pM CT

Journeyman Wade LeBlanc has been a nice story for the Mariners at 6-1 with a 3.44 ERA. An xFIP of 4.35 lurks beyond the conventional line however and LeBlanc has allowed six home runs in his last five starts. LeBlanc has only allowed 19 walks in over 96 innings and he has pitched fantastic in two starts vs. the Angels with only seven hits and three runs allowed over 12 innings, with a win in both starts. The Angels are a .500 team that is 9-20 on the season vs. left-handed starters. On the season Los Angeles is batting .214 with a .647 team OPS vs. southpaws for some of the very worst splits in all of MLB.

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Andrew Heaney has good numbers on the season with a 3.66 ERA and steady strikeout counts but he isn’t a proven top of the rotation starter that should command this price against a playoff contender. Eight times in his last 12 starts has Heaney allowed three or more runs and while his ERA is solid at 3.53 in that span his xFIP is 4.27. The Mariners have defeated Heaney twice in that span as well with eight runs in 10 innings. Seattle is getting pushed by Oakland in the wild card race but the Mariners prefer to face left-handers batting .262 with a .738 team OPS vs. southpaws for a slight edge over the numbers vs. right-handers. The Mariners have been a losing team in July with a decline in offensive production but they have won seven of 12 games with the Angels while 27-22 on the road this season. Los Angeles has a 4.84 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and in that span the offense has hit .162 with 2.2 runs per nine vs. left-handers.

Nelly’s has a 2-for-1 offer for $15 Friday night while Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet total! Dalton is on a current 10-3 run with a 23-13 Best Bet run!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#978 Colorado Rockies (Gray) -150 over Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) 8:10 PM CT

Jon Gray was surprisingly sent to the minors for two starts despite being the team’s expected ace. Gray has a 11.6 K/9 on the season and his 2.82 xFIP suggests he has deserved much better than his 5.77 ERA. Pitching at Coor’s Field is a challenge however and Gray has slightly better home numbers while allowing four or fewer runs in five of his past six home starts.

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Wade LeBlanc owns a career 8.59 ERA at Coor’s Field and while he has been a nice story for the surprising Mariners the numbers don’t look sustainable. His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA and he has been fortunate to post a 5-0 record though it is worth noting that all five wins came at Safeco Field where LeBlanc owns a 2.88 ERA compared to a 4.11 road mark.

8-3 in July with 71 runs scored the Rockies are looking like a threat in the packed NL West as the Diamondbacks and Dodgers have not been able to pull away from the pack. Colorado has great offensive numbers vs. left-handers with a .269 season batting average and a .785 team OPS. Colorado has posted an .820 OPS the past 24 games while scoring 5.8 runs per game while Seattle’s season may be heading the wrong direction, outscored by 19 runs in a 5-6 start to July with luck running out for a squad that is 26-11 in one-run games.

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#925 Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) +130 over Tampa Bay Rays (Snell) 3:10 PM CT

The 2018 numbers for Felix Hernandez don’t fit in with the bulk of his great career but this is a ballpark he had success in with a 2.50 career ERA and he had one of his best starts of the season vs. this Rays lineup on Sunday, allowing one run over eight innings. Hernandez has won four of his last six decisions and still possesses adequate strikeout ability. His walk rate is elevated but he has allowed only four walks over his past three starts and one ugly early April road starts skews his away numbers.

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Blake Snell is probably an All Star for the Rays right now with a 2.36 ERA and seven wins in 13 starts. His K/9 is 10.4 and he has now allowed zero earned runs in three consecutive starts. Snell has pitched seven innings just twice in 13 outings however and he has been flat out lucky with a .229 BABIP and an 84 percent strand rate. Snell already has the most wins in a season of his career in 2018 but there is little about his results the past two seasons to suggest his 2018 breakout is sustainable. Snell has impressive numbers at home but the Mariners will get a second look at Snell in a week’s time.

A lot has gone right for the Mariners as the surprise AL West leaders but with a 24-12 record since May 1 this team continues to excel despite the negative early season headlines. Being 20-9 in one-run games and 6-0 in extra-innings games has helped but an elite bullpen deserved credit while the lineup has featured one of the league’s most consistently productive units. Tampa Bay has also hit well for average but the Mariners have more home run potential while also being much less strikeout-prone and this is a rare underdog price on one of baseball’s top performers given that Seattle is 13-8 vs. left-handed starters on the season while scoring more than 5.0 runs per nine vs. southpaws.

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Nelly’s has hit six of our last seven MLB Totals – get Saturday’s Daytime Delivery Total for just $15! Bobby Dalton is 8-3 in his last 11 MLB 10* Best Bets – get Saturday’s MLB card!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#915/916 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) at Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) 6:10 PM CT

Jake Odorizzi has a 3.18 ERA at Target Field this season as so far he has been a positive acquisition for the Twins who despite a disappointing record are still right in the AL Central race 1.5 games behind Cleveland. Minnesota is 8-3 in the past 11 games but the offense has struggled scoring just 15 runs in a split of four games in Anaheim with tonight’s contest a taxing first home game after a long road trip.

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Eddie Rosario has provided a boost of late but the lineup has struggled with Logan Morrison and Byron Buxton still below the Mendoza line and Eduardo Escobar and Joe Mauer cooling off. The turnaround for the Twins has been keyed by a 1.80 bullpen ERA the past 10 games and the good numbers for the Twins vs. left-handers have come through a very small sample.

The Mariners just lost Robinson Cano as the lineup and Seattle’s production has fallen of late, batting just .242 with 3.9 runs per nine over the past 10 games. Wade LeBlanc has a 3.18 ERA so far this season mostly as a reliever while pitching well in a pair of starts in May, going nine innings with just seven hits allowed and only one run scoring. LeBlanc has only allowed four walks in nearly 23 innings of work. These teams played a pair of games in early April in Minnesota with just 37 combined hits and rain is expected tonight in Minneapolis which could keep the numbers down in a matchup of teams that could show some fatigue.

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Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday with baseball and basketball winners – get possible Monday releases by 3:00 PM CT. Bobby Dalton is on a 29-13 NBA Playoff Side play run – win tonight in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals for just $12. Dalton has also won 41 of his last 72 May baseball updates.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#970 Toronto Blue Jays (Garica) -120 over Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) 6:05 PM CT

Wade LeBlanc has made only one start this season going four innings last week without allowing a run. LeBlanc has good season numbers but it has been a very small sample and this should be his most difficult road venue assignment this season. Toronto was no-hit yesterday against a tough left-hander but the season numbers are solid for the Blue Jays vs. southpaws and rebound from the lineup looks possible today.

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LeBlanc will not be allowed to go deep into this game in his second start of the season after mostly pitching out of the bullpen and that leaves a lot of outs for a Seattle bullpen that is well rested but has also struggled on the season. The Mariners have a 4.12 bullpen ERA on the season, up to 4.50 over the past 10 games. In contrast relief pitching has been a strength for Toronto with a 3.03 season ERA.

Jaime Garica has a 6.00 ERA in six starts for the Blue Jays but he has been very good at the Rogers Centre with a 3.94 ERA at home. Right-handers have struggled against Garcia this season and for his career Garcia has been an opposite splits pitcher. He owns a 9.6 K/9 on the season but has had bad luck with eight home runs allowed in 30 innings of work and the veteran should see his numbers climb down in the coming weeks. Despite last night’s result and a slight edge in record for the Mariners, Toronto has the stronger scoring numbers through a far more difficult schedule and the Jays are catching a nice price at home tonight.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#928 Seattle Mariners (Leake) +115 over Los Angeles Angels (Richards) 9:10 PM CT

Mike Leake has a 6.48 ERA but he has three wins and one terrible outing is skewing the numbers. His FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA and he has had some bad luck with a high BABIP and a low strand rate. His strikeout rate won’t impress anyone but he also rarely walks batters and he has been a far better pitcher at home. Leake had a 3.38 ERA at home last season and his career numbers at Safeco Field are very solid.

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Garrett Richards has been all over the place this season with a few dominant showings to help produce a 12.0 K/9 but his ERA is up to 4.88. Richards has completed six innings just once in six starts and he has allowed 19 walks in nearly 28 innings of work. Richards has generated a lot of ground balls which has been the norm in his career as things could get worse for Richards in his first sustained MLB action since 2015.

The Angels lead the AL West and have generated plenty of early season headlines but Seattle is just a half game behind at 18-12 despite far less fanfare. The offensive production for these teams has been similar and the 11-2 road mark for the Angels isn’t sustainable. Richards has just two career wins in Seattle and the Angels are just 6-9 the past 15 games after the great first few weeks of the season. Seattle has quietly won seven of the last nine including four straight series wins and the marginal home record is due to only facing Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland so far this season.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#978 Oakland Athletics (Mengden) +115 over Seattle Mariners (Paxton) 9:05 pM CT

James Paxton will finish the 2017 season with a nice season line, currently 12-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 10.2 K/9. His Mariners have been a big disappointment and coming off injuries the past two seasons Paxton won’t be pressed late in the season, having been removed in the second and fourth innings in his past two start, posting a 9.00 ERA in his two starts since returning from the DL in mid-September.

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Seattle is 10-18 down the stretch to fail in a wild card bid including going just 2-8 the past 10 games after winning last night in Oakland.

Daniel Mengden is offering real promise for the future Oakland rotation. His ERA is 3.30 in five starts this season including back-to-back scoreless outings. Oakland is 45-34 at home this season with a 14-4 record since September 6 despite home underdog pricing tonight.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#968 Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) -130 over Seattle Mariners (Ramirez) 6:05 PM CT

The Orioles are starting to look very much alive in the AL Wild Card picture and a turnaround for the pitching staff has been the primary reason. Wade Miley, Kevin Gausman, and Dylan Bundy have all bounced back from mid-season struggles and Bundy gives Baltimore a great chance to win tonight. In August Bundy is 3-0 with an 11.0 K/9 and a 2.67 ERA and he has been a solid pitcher at home all season long.

Bundy is very tough on right-handed batters and he should get great support with Baltimore 15-11 this month behind nearly 6.0 runs scored per game. Baltimore has won five straight games getting a narrow win last night to start this series and the formidable offense owns an .893 team OPS in that five-game run. Baltimore has hit 47 home runs in the past 25 games and the Orioles are 39-26 at home on the season.

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Seattle was aggressive in making some roster moves to stay in the wild card hunt despite being buried in the AL West race but injuries to the pitching staff have made it hard for the Mariners to keep up. Seattle is 23-19 since the All Star break but they have been outscored by 20 runs in that span and fatigue has shown up now in the fourth city on a long east coast road trip with the Mariners losing the past three games. The team has just a .736 team OPS the past 24 games with only 4.1 runs scored game.

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Erasmo Ramirez rejoined the Mariners in late July, starting the season with the Rays but he has had mediocre results all season with a 4.52 ERA and a 6.9 K/9. With Seattle his ERA is 3.76 but with a 4.91 FIP and just a 6.1 K/9. As usual the Orioles still have an elite bullpen including a 1.70 relief ERA the past 10 games and Bundy clearly has a higher ceiling on the mound tonight.

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Nelly’s Baseball is rocking three straight winning weeks with a 12-5, +7.35* run since August 11 – join us for our next guaranteed pick on the diamond for Tuesday night. Bobby Dalton is also having success with his August baseball picks going 8-3 his last 11 including a 6-1 run in 10* Best Bets. Join him for an interleague Best Bet Tuesday!

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Free MLB Pick – Friday, July 15

#978 Seattle Mariners (Paxton) -120 over Houston Astros (Fister) 9:10 PM CT

Houston has charged back to playoff contention but the Astros are just 12-16 vs. left-handed starters on the season. On the year an Astros squad with a great reputation on offense is batting just .241 and that includes a .222 mark vs. left-handed pitching. In contrast the Mariners have hit .260 as a team with even better hitting and scoring numbers vs. right-handed pitching. Houston swept Seattle in three tight early July games the last time these squads met and this is a big series for the Mariners to stay within striking distance. The ceiling for James Paxton is very high and his strikeout rate is very impressive even with a small decline in strikeouts over his past two starts. Paxton owns a 2.99 FIP and his numbers are very respectable despite a .390 BABIP that is certain to fall in the coming weeks. Doug Fister has solid conventional numbers but with a 4.87 FIP he looks like a bit of an overachiever, benefitting from a .254 BABIP in the first half. He has allowed 20 hits and 11 runs in his last three starts with eight walks allowed and four home runs surrendered and that could be the direction the season heads for the veteran right-hander after he put together a great run in May and early June. Houston has much more star power in the lineup but Seattle has been the more consistent offensive team and the Astros are a losing road team with a shaky starter on the mound tonight in a nearly even-priced game.

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Free MLB Pick – Tuesday, June 21

#959 Seattle Mariners (Paxton) + over Detroit Tigers (Verlander) 6:10 PM CT

After showing some promise in a brief call-up in 2014 James Paxton proved not ready for primetime struggling at the big league level last season. At nearly age 28, patience may be wearing thin for the left-hander with a big-time arm but in four starts so far this season Paxton may be finally realizing his potential. His strikeout rate in the small sample is nearly 11.9 K/9 and he owns a 2.86 ERA. Paxton has taken two losses in his four starts but seven unearned runs have been factored in with some tough breaks in his first two starts back with the Mariners. Paxton owns a very low ERA and FIP despite a .403 BABIP that is sure to come down and with his swing-and-miss rate the ceiling is very high for Paxton to help the Mariners chase down a playoff spot. Opposing Paxton will be one of the American League’s best and most well known starters with Justin Verlander in the midst of a resurgent season. Verlander has been a big part of keeping the Tigers afloat at .500 so far this season but there is reason to be a little suspicious of the numbers for the former MVP and Cy Young winner. His BABIP is .271 as he has caught some breaks and his groundball rate is very similar to last season when the right-hander greatly struggled and well off the pace of his best seasons. Detroit has not been the strong hitting team vs. left-handed pitching that they generally have been in recent seasons, going just 8-10 this year vs. left-handed starters and batting 20 points worse as a team in those matchups. In contrast the Mariners are one of the league’s best scoring teams vs. right-handed pitching posting 5.3 runs per game. Seattle is in a bit of a slide having lost seven of the last nine games on this long road trip but in last night’s lengthy game the Mariners out-hit the Tigers 19-14 despite the loss and Seattle’s bullpen was preserved better than Detroit’s with the Tigers having five relievers pitch at least an inning. Verlander is capable of another good outing but Seattle looks promising in a bounce-back spot with underdog pricing.

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