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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

This selection is taken from Issue #12 of Nelly’s Green Sheet Newsletter.

#352 Louisiana Tech -14.5 over UTEP 6:30 PM CT

LAST MEETING: 2019 Louisiana Tech (-17½) 42 UTEP 21

SERIES HISTORY: Louisiana Tech is 11-1 S/U & 5-6 ATS since 1991

This is the first conference game for UTEP with the Miners holding a 3-1 record, besting the combined wins for the program over the previous three seasons combined. Two wins came narrowly vs. FCS competition and this figures to be quite a step up. Louisiana Tech hasn’t impressed however as the 2-1 start includes a one-point win and allowing 38 points in a FCS win. In primetime with a big opportunity last Friday the Bulldogs were blown out by BYU. UTEP got its only win in this series back in 2004 in the Miners last season in the WAC. UTEP has scored at least 21 points in the past three defeats in this series however for relatively competitive performances, though last season UTEP had two touchdowns and nearly half of the team’s yardage for the game in the final 10 minutes after falling behind 42-7. The offensive numbers look promising for Louisiana Tech with 10 touchdown throws already for Luke Anthony but the defense seems likely to keep most teams in every game. The ‘over’ might have some appeal as these are two of the five worst teams in the nation in the current small sample size in yards per play defense at 7.1 and 7.2 respectively, joined in the bottom five by major conference powers TCU, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. LA TECH BY 17

Don’t miss great Saturday offers in college football from Nelly’s and our featured handicappers:

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Huge Sports Weekend

A lot of action is ahead this weekend, starting Friday night with a pair of huge Game 5s, in the NBA Finals as well as the ALDS! Get selections from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton tonight!

Dalton is perfect so far in the NBA Finals and is on a 69-41 run in MLB games involving the Yankees!

Nelly’s started the football week with a winner Thursday night and we are now 17-8-1 in football releases this season with great success in college and pro games. Our first NCAA 2/3 Guarantee is posted for Saturday and we have two NFL picks for Sunday:

Maximum Sports has released picks for Saturday and Sunday including a pick in this huge ACC clash between Miami and Clemson. Maximum is 7-2 in higher rated 5* NFL picks this season as well.

Point Train had a huge 6-1 week last week in football including a 3-0 sweep in college football Saturday. The first 6-unit play of the season is ahead for an EARLY GAME on Saturday – $29.97 pay after you win!

Big E has his next 20* Conference Game of the Year up for football this Saturday – with a NON-CONFERENCE 20*! The Top 5 Ticket is also off to a great start this season, 3-2 or better every single week!

Check back Saturday morning for a FREE PICK from Issue #12 of the Green Sheet!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

Below is a Free College Pick from this week’s Green Sheet Newsletter, get the issue plus five phone picks in our Half-Price Weekend Offer as we look to build on a terrific start to the season, 11-2 overall in our recommendations.

419 Florida -14 over Ole Miss 11 AM CT

LAST MEETING: 2015 @Florida (+7½) 38 Mississippi 10

SERIES HISTORY: Florida is 7-4 S/U & 5-6 ATS since 1980

A 38-10 Florida win in the last meeting isn’t a surprise but one does a double take seeing a home underdog price for the Gators. That was a matchup of 4-0 teams and Ole Miss was #3 in the nation. Despite being in the same conference, that is the only meeting between these schools since 2008. Lane Kiffin will be making his Oxford debut and he hasn’t announced how the snaps will be split between returning QBs Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee. Kyle Trask is back for the Gators filling in admirably last season and boosting the Florida offense. Florida also has several promising options to throw to and they will face a Ole Miss defense that was at the bottom of the SEC last season. Florida has some pieces to replace on defense but Dan Mullen has added a few transfers to complete the roster as it should be an above average even if not likely to match last season’s 14.4 points per game allowed pace. Florida should have an edge in the opener.

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton has released his first 15* BEST BET of the season for EARLY SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL – join the Big Dog as he looked to add to an 11-3 15* NCAA run in September since 2005!

Check out other great offers for the football weekend from our featured handicappers as well:

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Half-Price Weekend Offer

Nelly’s had turned in a great start to the football season, 11-2 overall including 7-2 in rated picks. We’ve been perfect in college football and we have an EARLY PICK SATURDAY plus a higher rated 2* SHOWCASE GAME Saturday Night in guaranteed offers. We also have our famous NFL 2/3 GUARANTEE going for NFL Week 3, already posting a 3-0 sweep once this season.

As a special offer this week we’ve got our Weekend Package for Half Price this week – only $30 getting you those five rated picks, a copy of this week’s Green Sheet and a possible pick or opinion to come for Monday’s big AFC game.

Nelly’s has also enjoyed excellent recent runs in MLB and the NBA with picks set for Friday!

Keep posted for a FREE PICK later today!

Check out Bobby Dalton’s Stanley Cup Finals Offer and don’t miss a BEST BET in MLB action. Dalton won in the NFL last night with the Dolphins and is expecting a college football 15* BEST BET Saturday, riding an 11-3 run in September 15* picks.

Point Train won Thursday night as well and is featuring a LATE NIGHT PICK for Saturday college football!

Big E won his first big play of the season last week with a 20* in the ACC – he has his first 15* NFL Pick set for Week 3.

Maximum Sports has been red hot in the NFL at 9-3, don’t miss his 60% Guarantee this week!

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ACC Spotlight – Miami at Louisville

Saturday College Football – Miami, FL at Louisville

After getting a taste of college football the past two weeks, things will heat up in conference play in the final two weeks of September. One of the biggest games of the weekend is a contest in the ACC between Miami and Louisville. Both teams had some positives in their first seasons under new coaches last year and the victor of this game could emerge as a sleeper in the ACC race.

Match-up: Miami, FL Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals

Venue: At Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky ~30% Capacity Open ~18,000)

Time/TV: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 PM ET ABC

Line: Louisville -2½ Over/Under 64½

Last Meeting: November 2019 @Miami (-7) 52, Louisville 27

Miami and Louisville both are 1-0 with wins vs. Conference USA teams ahead of this ACC opener with the Hurricanes winning against UAB last Thursday and Louisville pulling away from Western Kentucky. Miami won convincingly in this series last season, which was the first meeting since 2014. These teams are both former Big East programs though their time in the league did not coincide.

Manny Diaz was born in Miami but attended Florida State, where he also started his coaching career. He has bounced around several schools in the past two decades before landing at Miami as Mark Richt’s defensive coordinator for three seasons starting in 2016. He accepted the Temple head coaching job following Miami’s 2018 season but after Richt retired he returned to the Hurricanes. His first season was an inconsistent journey to 6-7; delivering quality wins over Virginia, Pittsburgh, and in this matchup but also suffering losses to Georgia Tech, Florida International, and a shutout bowl loss to Louisiana Tech.

Diaz lured two high profile transfers to Miami this off-season with former Houston quarterback D’Eriq King and Temple DE Quincy Roche though the headlines were negative on that front this week as CB Christian Williams announced his departure out of Miami after last week’s win. Quarterback play was quite erratic for Miami last season and King was productive in the opener in the air and on the ground while Roche also made several impact plays for a defensive front that expects to be highly regarded in the ACC.

Miami led just 14-7 at halftime in the opener but pulled away with three touchdowns in the third quarter for a 31-14 win, posting a yardage edge of 495-285. Miami ran the ball effectively with 83 yards from King but also 134 on just 17 carries from Cam’Ron Harris with Miami compiling 337 rushing yards against one of the better Conference USA defenses. The Miami defense also played well against the run after a few sloppy plays early in the game, holding UAB to 3.1 yards per rush. There were some holes in the pass defense however and UAB likely would have had better numbers if not for an injury to their veteran quarterback.  

Playing on Thursday offers Miami a longer turnaround ahead of the ACC opener as Louisville’s opening win came last Saturday night. Hosting Western Kentucky as a nearly two-touchdown favorite, the Cardinals lost an early fumble and were down 7-0 not even three minutes into the game. Four unanswered touchdowns on mostly long drives put Louisville up 28-7 by halftime and the production edges were more substantial than the 35-21 final score with Louisville not adding points in the final 23 minutes of the game while comfortably ahead.

Scott Satterfield went 51-24 at Appalachian State leading the team in a successful move up to the FBS level while claiming three Sun Belt titles. He wasn’t the first choice with the opening at Louisville, but he turned in a solid season of improvement going 8-5 last season with a Music City Bowl win. Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, though a 45-10 home loss to the Tigers painted a significant gap in the standings.

Micale Cunningham had an efficient season in 2019 with only five interceptions and over 2,000 yards passing as the Louisville quarterback. He did throw an interception in the opener but also had a career high of 343 passing yards as Western Kentucky’s defense is effective stopping the run. Satterfield’s offenses usually are run-heavy but being held to 3.8 yards per rush, Louisville took some shots downfield in the opener and hit a few big plays.

Louisville also had a good defensive showing after an inconsistent campaign in 2019. Louisville was among the worst run defenses in the nation last season allowing 5.6 yards per carry and eight times last season the Cardinals allowed 34 or more points. All five Louisville losses came by double-digits last season and the Cardinals didn’t deliver many quality wins with the best results at Wake Forest, home vs. Virginia, and in bowl action vs. Mississippi State.

The result Saturday will likely boil down to who performs better among the two star quarterbacks with both King and Cunningham deserving mention as Heisman candidates. King opened as low as 30/1 while Cunningham was around 100/1 this spring. King is now down to 9/1 at some outlets while Cunningham’s price has hit as low as 20/1. Both teams have a shot to produce a strong enough record to keep either in the conversation with a possible edge to Cunningham as Louisville doesn’t have to play Clemson in this season’s ACC free-for-all race.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING:

Louisville is 5-2 S/U and ATS at home under Satterfield though the program is 23-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2007, only fitting that role three times last season coming off a 2-win 2018 campaign. Miami is just 9-14 ATS as an underdog since 2013 though going 3-0 ATS with two S/U wins last season under Diaz. Miami is 10-3-1 S/U all-time in this series since 1933 but just 1-6 ATS in this series with spread data back to 1984. Louisville had won and covered in three straight meetings before last season’s 52-27 win for Miami.

LAST SEASON:

Louisville played Clemson and Virginia in back-to-back weeks in late October, splitting those games before a bye week and the road trip to Miami. That situation seemed to favor the rested Cardinals as Miami was riding back-to-back road wins including defeating rival Florida State the previous week. Both teams had long scoring drives early in the game but Miami kept its offense going with a 35-14 lead by halftime. The final yardage favored Louisville 496-449 but the Cardinals lost three turnovers. Miami QB Jarren Williams threw six touchdowns while Miami rushed for 6.2 yards per carry in a convincing result. After scoring 52 vs. Louisville in what was the home finale, the Hurricanes would score only 41 points in the next three games combined, all losses to lesser teams than the Cardinals.

UP NEXT:

Miami has Florida State at home next Saturday in another Saturday night ABC game. Louisville’s next three games are spaced out over four weeks but will all be road games, at Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, and then at Notre Dame.

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Huge Sports Saturday + Free Pick

Bobby Dalton has you covered for a HUGE sports Saturday – after a long layoff sports are back and this is the first big Saturday on the schedule. Dalton has offers in the NBA, MLB, NHL, and Horse Racing!

Check our his HORSE RACING selections at Monmouth, his home track. His first selection was in the money in 27 of 31 races last weekend!

Dalton is 2-0 in MLB 10* Best Bets this season – get his SATURDAY 10* PAY AFTER YOU WIN!

Nelly’s wrapped up a 60% July in MLB with an underdog winner Friday night – we are perfect on totals this season and have an over/under pick ready to go for Saturday night!

We have split our first two NBA restart picks with a brutal miss yesterday on the Celtics +5, a tie game into the final minutes before a controversial finish. We feel locked in even with the tough miss looking to build on an active 11-2-1 run and three straight regular seasons over 60%! Get Saturday’s Side Play for $15!

Free Pick Saturday:

#961 Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) + over Minnesota Twins (Maeda) 6:10 PM CT

This series for the top spot in the AL Central could continue to zig-zag with these teams splitting the first two games of the series. Scoring has been at a premium and more quality pitching should be on its way Saturday. Carlos Carrasco’s promising career was sidetracked last season but he looked like his peak self in his 2020 debut with 10 strikeouts in six innings as the pitching-rich Indians should be in a great position to take back the lead in the Central today. Carrasco was unfortunate in that start with a .385 BABIP but still effectively got the win. Yesterday’s 4-1 loss was a bit misleading as the Indians had plenty of men on base but faltered in some big at-bats while also getting some tough breaks with well hit balls being caught for huge outs. Minnesota used its top four options in the bullpen last night and two of those pitchers threw at least 19 pitches as there could be some wear if either is called on tonight. Kenta Maeda made a successful Twins debut in Chicago but there were some red flags in his numbers last season, including a .243 BABIP to help produce a still mediocre 4.04 ERA in 153+ innings. That was pitching with the Dodgers in a very favorable ballpark with plenty of support. Maeda gave up 22 home runs last season and isn’t the same caliber of strikeout pitcher that Carrasco can be. Even so this line has shifted back to the Twins as a slight favorite after Cleveland was favored on Friday and it will again make sense to take the favorable price with the adjustment. As was the case Thursday, Cleveland has the much higher ceiling starter on the mound yet is the underdog in what may continue to be a back-and-forth series. As formidable as Minnesota’s lineup is, Josh Donaldson will likely sit today and after the big first series, the Twins have scored only seven runs the past three games.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#638 Tennessee +1 over Florida 1:00 PM CT

With 10 losses Florida has been a disappointment this season with a roster many expected could compete for a national title. A big March run remains possible for the Gators but this valuation is a bit lofty for the Gators coming off a huge win over LSU with the current 6-2 run featuring mostly the worst teams in the SEC including a pair of wins over Vanderbilt. The only three road wins in SEC play for Florida came vs. foes that grade worse than Tennessee and after a run of back-to-back huge games vs. top conference contenders this could be a flat spot. Tennessee has had a challenging season coming off being a national force last year, with the loss of Lamonte Turner as season-changing blow. Tennessee has limped to a 7-8 SEC run but not without several competitive showings and still a formidable home court. Tennessee has won its last two home games and the team enter this game off a rare lopsided loss losing badly at Arkansas Wednesday after beating the Razorbacks soundly at home earlier in the month. Tennessee has not lost three consecutive SEC games all season and this game is critical given that a road trip to Lexington is up next Tuesday night. Florida has faced the 14th ranked SEC schedule for a favorable path that inflates the numbers and Tennessee has featured an outstanding interior defense this season that is among the best in the SEC. Tennessee allows less than 32 percent from 3-point range as well as the Gators aren’t likely to hit their season averages against a bigger Volunteers lineup. Tennessee has won four of the last five in this series with Florida last winning in Knoxville in 2014.

Nelly’s Basketball is 40-22 the past 39 days for an over 64% run heading into March Madness. Join us for all picks through April 6 for just $269 to build on a huge 34-18 run in the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons! Play today’s 2/3 as we look to add to a 5-0 NBA run while hitting each of our last two 2/3 offers in the last week!

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 Thursday night in basketball and he has three picks ready to go for Saturday in a $23 2/3 offer! He is also a perfect 6-0 in the XFL and has football releases for Saturday & Sunday!

Big E has won six of his last eight 20* Conference GOY picks while 12-6 on the season in 20* picks and 15-7 in 15* and higher picks. Join the B.E.S.T. for March Madness for $199.94 and check out today’s 20* in the Summit League!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#702 San Francisco +4 over BYU 5:00 PM CT

14-7 San Francisco is 0-2 vs. Saint Mary’s in a 3-3 WCC start but both games vs. the Gaels were close while every non-conference loss came in a competitive game as well. All three home defeats have been top 100 caliber results and there is a lot to like about the offensive numbers for the Dons with strong shooting numbers all over the floor. Half of BYU’s losses this season have been overtime games but the only road win in the past two months came Thursday at Pacific. BYU is now drawing a third-consecutive road game on Saturday and a Cougars team reliant on 3-point shooting will face one of the top 3-point defenses in the WCC. San Francisco looks likely to dominate the rebounding in this game and have great interior scoring opportunities with some clear size advantages in this contest. Home wins over Yale, Southern Illinois, Sam Houston State, California, and Santa Clara provide support of a quality edge at War Memorial and the Dons won both meetings with BYU last season. A pair of huge home games are lined up next week for BYU making this a challenging spot on the schedule for the Cougars to be in top form, having scored 69 and 74 in the past two road games after scoring in the 90s in the past two home games for a clear contrast.  

Nelly’s has won five straight college basketball picks for a big late January gain! Don’t miss three big plays Saturday in our 2/3 offer for only $25!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#147 Kansas +25 over Iowa State 11:00 AM CT

The midseason momentum Kansas gained from the close loss to Texas and the upset over Texas Tech has been erased with lopsided losses the past two weeks. While the offense has struggled and the initial glow of new OC Brent Dearmon has worn off, the defense has kept the scoring in check. The Jayhawks will also be a significantly higher underdog in Ames than they were in Forth Worth, Austin, or Stillwater even with a pretty-even grouping among those teams in the second tier of the Big XII. Kansas was only out-gained by 62 yards in this matchup last season and Iowa State is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three games as a Big XII favorite. The Cyclones are an average rushing team and can be overly reliant on the passing game which is not an ideal heavy favorite criterion, while Kansas has posted very respectable pass defense numbers and has out-thrown three straight Big XII foes. Iowa State may have a tough time matching the intensity of the past few games facing Oklahoma and Texas in succession with tense finishes in both games. Even with clear improvement for Kansas this season under Les Miles this will be the biggest favorite spread for Matt Campbell vs. a FBS foe since he took over at Iowa State in 2016 and in our data back to 1980 the Cyclones have never been this big of a favorite vs. a FBS foe with this year’s 6-4 squad not exactly looking deserving of a historic price. Kansas is on a 9-2 ATS run at +24 or higher and the points make sense in this situation with a possible letdown for Iowa State.

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Free Pick Saturday

#360 Oregon State +2.5 over Arizona State 6:30 PM CT

Oregon State has covered in six of the past eight in this series but has lost by double-digits each of the past two seasons. Jayden Daniels wound up not playing last week with a knee injury but after falling behind early the Sun Devils made a late charge behind Joey Yellen. Oregon State’s rise to respectability this season took a hit hosting Friday night TV action with a loss to Washington that was a far worse showing than the score revealed with the Beavers held to 119 yards. This is still the team second place in the Pac-12 North and winning this game is a must for a bowl bid with a finale at Oregon still ahead for the upstart Beavers. This line camping out at +2.5 to attract action on the road favorite looks favorable and the Beavers are worth a shot to get the job done today for a fourth Pac-12 win for the first time since 2013.