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75% MLB start in 2020 + Free Pick

Nelly’s hit underdogs over the weekend to climb to 3-1 on the season for a great start in baseball’s return. Join us for a NL Contender Clash selection for only $15 on Monday night – or consider signing up for the whole season through the World Series for three months of updates for just $199!

Bobby Dalton also has a winning record in MLB to start the season including cashing his first 10* Best Bet of the season on Friday. The Big Dog looks to move to 2-0 on Best Bets with another great pick for Monday’s schedule just $19.99!

Dalton also turned in a nice weekend in horse racing with 16 first places out of 29 at Monmouth. Don’t miss his horse selections next week.

The NBA is set to return on Thursday as Nelly’s looks to build on three consecutive over 60% regular seasons in the NBA, taking an active 10-1 run into the restart. Join for all picks through the NBA Finals for $199.

Check out Monday’s Free Pick in MLB action below:

#910 Tampa Bay Rays (Glasnow) – over Atlanta Braves (Foltynewicz) 5:40 PM CT
Tyler Glasnow had impressive results over 12 starts in a season cut short in 2019 for the Rays. He took only one loss and posted a better than 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Even with those high strikeout marks he allowed only four home runs in over 60 innings of work and had an over 50 percent groundball rate. Glasnow is likely to be eased into the season and shouldn’t be counted on for a deep outing but he should leave the excellent Rays bullpen in a good position. After an opening day loss the Rays won back-to-back games vs. Toronto, getting the job done in extra-innings yesterday. The deep pitching staff has plenty of options and should have most top relievers available for Monday aside from Trevor Richards and Andrew Kittredge who both threw 40 pitches Sunday in relief. The Tampa Bay offense still lacks big names but so far has the third best walk rate in all of MLB to offset marginal production numbers as the Rays are 2-1 despite only hitting two home runs so far. After low-scoring games to start the season the formidable Braves offense exploded for 14 runs Sunday to take the opening series with the Mets. Atlanta had seven hits with runners in scoring position and six two-out RBI while hitting four home runs. They won’t get to face Rick Porcello today however and will face a travel turnaround for the first time this season after a big first series in Queens that featured tense games Friday and Saturday including the extra-innings escape on Saturday. Atlanta has been a very poor OBP team so far this season and has a 28 percent strikeout rate that is among the worst in baseball so far. Tampa Bay is among the best in baseball at exploiting those opportunities and a Rays team that was great at home last season and is one of the few true AL contenders is priced about as lightly as they should expect to be all season long at Tropicana with Glasnow on the mound.

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) +110 over Baltimore Orioles (Cobb) 5:35 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Rays out-hit the Orioles 15-10 last night but wound up losing by five runs in a game where they had three times as many at-bats as Baltimore with runners in scoring position. The Rays left five times as many runners on base and the Orioles turned two huge rally-killing double plays in the game with a two out grand slam from Manny Machado the key play in the result for the Orioles.

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The Rays are still 5.5 games and a 57 runs superior to the Orioles in the standings and Baltimore is just 8-11 at Camden Yards. Somehow winning three games in a row leaves the Orioles as the favorite tonight in Game 2 of today’s double-header. While there is some risk getting involved before knowing the Game 1 outcome, the Rays have Chris Archer on the mound in the afternoon game and while he has had mixed results he should be counted on for a sustained start. The Orioles are countering with the MLB debut of David Hess with far more potential variance in his outcome and the toll on the Baltimore bullpen.

Alex Cobb was picked up by a panicked Orioles team late in spring training and the move has not paid off with a 7.61 ERA and no wins in five starts for Cobb. Facing his former team could be a challenge as the Rays scored five runs and had 10 hits against him at Oriole Park in late April and Cobb has just a 4.2 K/9 this season despite being the favorite in this matchup. Matt Andriese has been a steady fill-in starter for the Rays in recent years and his numbers this season are excellent with a 10.5 K/9 while allowing just three walks in more than 20 innings of work. His FIP is only 2.04 and while he isn’t likely to go deep in this game he has had a few longer relief outings and his starting experience could push him to a longer start tonight. The winning streak for the Orioles isn’t likely a great sign of things to come especially with a very fortunate result last night and the underdog Rays are worth a shot in Game 2.

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Nelly’s has won in three of four MLB weeks this season – get tonight’s TOTAL for $15! Bobby Dalton is on a 51-35 Trips-2-Win MLB run – win 2/3 tonight with the Big Dog!

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913 Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) +120 over Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) 6:05 PM CT

Chris Archer’s first month of 2018 has mirrored a frustrating run the past two seasons with elite strikeout counts but a very poor strand rate and a high BABIP. Archer has an ERA of 6.59 but with a FIP of just 4.65 while still continuing to produce a lot of strikeouts but he has also allowed a home run in each of his five starts.

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This could be a breakthrough season for Dylan Bundy who fared respectably in 28 starts last season despite slightly worse numbers than in his rookie season of 2016. Bundy has an 11.4 K/9 but his 1.42 ERA isn’t deserved. Bundy has faced tough lineups this season but winning games has been a challenge with the Orioles 6-18 this season.

Tampa Bay has climbed back to relevance with five wins in a row and the Rays are 38 runs superior to Baltimore in net scoring differential. Baltimore is only 3-8 at home this season and the usually great bullpen owns a 4.57 ERA on the season with five blown saves. The Orioles are batting just .203 vs. right-handers this season compared to a steady .253 mark for the Rays and this battle of strikeout artists should favor the road underdog.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0  in NBA Playoff picks last night – don’t miss Thursday’s TOTAL for just $12. Nelly’s has won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs, hitting over 60% on the season – guaranteed Game 6 side tonight for $15!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) -105 over Texas Rangers (Griffin) 5:10 PM CT

Most assumed that Jake Odorizzi would finish the 2016 season on a contender and many likely wish they had dealt for the still only 26-year old right-hander given that he owns a 1.66 ERA while going 4-0 since the All Star break. He owns a nearly 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that run of six starts and he has faced several formidable AL lineups in that run. He has a daunting task Saturday with the AL-leading Rangers in town but Texas is just 14-13 vs. the AL East this season. The Rangers are also only 33-30 in road games heading into this series, going just 12-15 the past three road trips. A.J. Griffin had a strong start to the season for the Rangers but since the break he owns a 6.06 ERA with a 6.88 FIP. He has allowed 34 hits in 32 innings in those six starts with 10 home runs allowed. The Rangers had appeared to shore up their bullpen midseason but that has been an area of weakness of late and a two-inning start from Lucas Harrell on Tuesday set the team back with five relievers needed to finish that extra-innings game. Tampa Bay is 12-8 in the last 20 games as this is a team that can play spoiler down the stretch and there appears to be a big edge on the mound tonight for the hosts.

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Free MLB Pick – Wednesday, May 11

#919 Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) +110 over Seattle Mariners (Walker) 2:40 PM CT

In his first four starts of 2016 spanning not quite 20 innings of work Chris Archer allowed 30 hits and 18 runs. IN three starts since he has allowed 11 hits and two runs in nearly 19 innings of work as he appears to have his command back. Two of the recent excellent outings came in formidable matchups with Baltimore and Toronto and he is still posting 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed seven home runs and 41 hits but Archer appears poised to re-gain his form from last season when he was one of the top pitchers in the AL. Taijuan Walker owns a great 1-97 ERA this season as he looks to back up last season’s breakthrough season and with just three walks allowed the control for the still just 23-year old has been sharp. Walker left his last start early with neck spasms so there is some concern about his ability to deliver a long outing Wednesday afternoon. The road team has had a lot of recent success in this series and Archer was listed at -135 pitching in Seattle in a 3-1 win last June as his slow start has put some value on one of the AL’s most impressive pitchers.

 

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