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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) 6:05 PM CT

Vince Velasquez has posted a 1.99 ERA in four starts and a relief inning for the Phillies, helping the rotation greatly with the early season struggles of Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola. There are some big red flags for Velasquez however with his worst start his only home outing and an xFIP of 4.22. He has left 96 percent of his baserunners on base while posting a .228 BABIP. He has also made starts in Miami and at Citi Field for very favorable opportunities. Some light rain in possible in Philadelphia Tuesday but conditions shouldn’t be detrimental to offense and Philadelphia has scored 5.2 runs per game this season.

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The Phillies have struggled pitching however with 4.7 runs per game allowed and Citizens Bank Park has averaged 10.5 runs per game this season with the Phillies averaging 6.1 runs per game at home. This is the third city on the current road trip for the Tigers who are the AL’s lowest scoring team with only 91 runs. Detroit has averaged 4.9 runs per game over the past 10 contests, posting at least four runs in six of the past nine games and averaging 5.0 runs per game on this road trip.

Tyson Ross was scratched from this start but while Spencer Turnbull might look like a better option with a 2.77 ERA a 4.46 xFIP is a more realistic account. Turnbull hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts but he has also faced a light crop of opposing lineups this season. His 3.8 BB/9 is a concern and little in his career numbers suggests that his current pace is sustainable with Turnbull posting one career win and a 4.04 ERA in now just over 42 innings at the MLB level. Surrendering flyballs at a high rate against the Phillies in this ballpark can be problematic and the Detroit bullpen owns a 4.81 ERA on the season while Philadelphia hasn’t been much better as both bullpens feature a WHIP above 1.40. Over the past 10 games Detroit has a 8.37 bullpen ERA and with a double-header a week ago and several short starting efforts over the weekend the Tigers haven’t had much chance to recover even with an off day Monday.

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Bobby Dalton has gone 3-0 each of the past two days on the diamond – win again with his next TRIPS-2-WIN 2/3 offer for Tuesday night. Nelly’s MLB has had a forgettable April in a small sample but we expect to get an over/under winner in tonight and have turned in a profit in four consecutive MLB seasons.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Minnesota Twins (Stewart) 7:10 PM CT

Spencer Turnbull is a former first round pick and he is getting a look at the MLB level this September. He faced Minnesota last week and allowed six runs but on just six hits and his FIP is only 2.55 in his five MLB innings despite the high ERA. He hasn’t allowed a home run and has allowed just one walk.

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The Twins have a team OPS of just .718 over the past 24 games, down to .670 over the past four games. The Twins and Tigers have averaged just 8.5 runs per game in 16 meetings and cold Autumn conditions are expected in Minneapolis tonight. In 10 of the last 14 games Detroit has scored four or fewer runs and the Tigers have a .670 team OPS the past two weeks, averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

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Kohl Stewart has offered great promise for the Twins down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA in seven appearances, never allowing more than three runs. He pitched six innings with only one unearned run and three hits allowed vs. the Tigers last week and the team’s top pick in the 2013 draft has great potential. In favorable pitching conditions both young arms should have success against marginal lineups Tuesday night.

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Don’t miss Bobby Dalton’s 15* Best Bet Tuesday night in the final week of the MLB regular season! Dalton has won three 10* picks in a row and is 3-1 on 15* picks this baseball season! Get the pick on its own ($39.99) or as part of a guaranteed profit HIGH FIVE offer ($49.99).

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Free MLB Pick Sunday

#961/962 ‘OVER 8’ Pittsburgh Pirates (Musgrove) at San Francisco Giants (Rodriguez) 3:05 PM CT

Joe Musgrove has a 3.41 ERA in 12 starts looking like a viable piece of a promising Pittsburgh rotation for years to come. His xFIP is 4.41 and his K/9 is just 6.8 however as Musgrove may not be able to keep this pace up. He has pitched extremely well on the road this season but it is a very small sample of only 27 innings and the Pittsburgh bullpen has struggled in recent weeks while needing a substantial workload already in this series.

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Dereck Rodriguez has provided a very promising start for the Giants, 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 11 outings. He also has a high xFIP casting some doubt on the figures however at 4.00. His strikeout rate isn’t a lot higher at 7.5 K/9 and his numbers seem likely to rise over time. The Giants have had several short starting efforts in the last week and both teams have been significantly more productive vs. right-handers this season.

In six meetings between these teams on the season there has been 71 combined runs scored and AT&T Park has not fit its reputation this season with 8.9 runs per game and a sharp lean ‘over’. Five of the past seven day games in San Francisco have also featured at least eight runs.

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Nelly’s Baseball is perfect this week, 5-0 since Monday get Sunday’s side play for just $15. Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet for Sunday MLB riding a 29-17 Best Bet run!

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#953/954 ‘OVER 9.5’ Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Colorado Rockies (Marquez) 2:10 PM CT

German Marquez has been a steady pitcher in the rotation for the Rockies but at home he owns a 6.63 ERA in over 55 innings of work. Foes have batted .303 against him at Coor’s Field with a .913 OPS. Marquez is on a nice six-start run since late June but four of six games came on the road including pitching in a few favorable ballparks. In six of his last 11 starts he has still allowed four or more runs and Pittsburgh has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball in the last month.

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In the past 22 games the Pirates have an .809 team OPS with 5.3 runs scored per game. Pittsburgh has scored at least five runs 13 times in the past 19 games Colorado has allowed 5.1 runs per game so far in August after the pitching staff had a great month of July to climb back in the NL race. In home games the Rockies own a 5.62 bullpen ERA and Marquez has been a high risk pitcher in Denver.

Pittsburgh has a 5.00 bullpen ERA on the road this season and the Pittsburgh debut for Chris Archer was similar to how he has pitched all season, allowing five runs in just over four innings of work. Archer can generate strikeouts but his season ERA is 4.40 and he hasn’t been much more than a league-average pitcher the past three seasons. Left-handers have hit Archer hard this season and Colorado had quality lefties in four of the top seven spots in the lineup last night. Archer also only has pitched at Coor’s Field once, a ballpark averaging 10.6 runs per game on the season.

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Nelly’s Baseball had a winner in interleague action last night – don’t miss Wednesday’s evening selection. Bobby Dalton won his 3/5 offer Tuesday and is featuring a 10* Best Bet for Wednesday night.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#919/920 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy appeared to be on pace to becoming one of the top left-handers in the AL, used as a reliever in the 2014 and 2015 postseasons after being a capable back of the rotation starter. Duffy became a full-time starter in 2016 and delivered a great season. In down year for the Royals last season Duffy still made competitive starts but he has struggled in 2018 for an even worst performing Kansas City squad. His ERA is 4.59 with a 4.98 FIP and his BB/9 has climbed to 4.2. Duffy has a hefty contract through 2021 as he isn’t likely to be dealt even though he has looked the part of a very useful starter of late, allowing posting five starts with one or fewer allowed over his last seven outings. His ERA is actually just 2.73 over his last 10 starts and he has dominated the Twins twice in that stretch, allowing just one run over 12 innings.

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Minnesota owns a .699 team OPS vs. left-handers on the season and while a 9-2 run into the break has kept the Twins hanging on in the AL Central conversation this team is still a candidate to move some pieces at the deadline and the recent rise in production mostly came against the bottom of the AL. Minnesota has just 18 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances this season vs. left-handed pitching.

Jose Berrios represented the Twins in the All Star game but since late April Kyle Gibson has been the team’s top starter. In his last 15 starts his ERA is just 3.23 with solid strikeout marks and few home runs allowed. He posted seven shutout innings vs. the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in late May and Kansas City has a AL worst .666 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens have been a mess to offer some concern in the late innings but off the long layoff the managers will be able to have all of their options at full strength.

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Bobby Dalton picked up +46.0* in June! He has a 20-11 run in Best Bests at the break and has a 10* Best Bet for Friday afternoon! 

Nelly’s has turned in a profit in 9 of 14 weeks this season. We finished the first half 11 games above .500 with nearly +9.0* of profit. Totals are red hot with a 17-7 run at the break while 32-19 (63%) overall since May 28!

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Free MLB Pick Sunday

#917/918 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 12:05 PM CT

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t had a lot of success since the first half of his first season with the Tigers in 2016. This season Zimmermann missed about six weeks on the DL but overall his campaign has provided steady returns for a Tigers team that offered some competitive results prior to the current 11-game slide. Zimmermann hasn’t taken a loss and he owns a 3.51 FIP on the season in over 41 innings of work. His K/9 is currently its highest since his rookie season in 2009 and he still possesses the great command that has kept him in the big leagues into his 30s.

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J.A. Happ is proving his great 2016 season wasn’t a fluke with strong returns in 2018. He has top 20 numbers in ERA, K/9, and FIP among AL starters and he certainly has a case to be on the AL All Star team for the Blue Jays. Just once in 16 starts has Happ allowed more than four runs. Detroit is able to post a righty-heavy lineup as they did yesterday but right-handers are batting just .222 vs. Happ this season.

Mired in the current losing streak the Tigers are batting .209 with a .582 team OPS the past 11 games, scoring an average of 2.6 runs per game. Detroit has been one of the AL’s top ‘under’ teams at 48-34-2 including 25-14-1 in road games. The Jays are batting just .238 with a 3.9 runs per game over the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching and while both bullpens have had some shaky recent moments this Sunday day game should mirror Saturday’s game, a contest with only 14 combined hits.

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Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday, now 16-4 our last 20 totals and on a 24-13 overall run since late May. Get Sunday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has won Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers the past two days and wrapped up a +46.0 unit gain in June. Don’t miss Sunday’s MLB Trips-2-Win 2/3 with Dalton on an 18-6 AL run!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#917/918 ‘UNDER 9’ Oakland Athletics (Mengden) at Chicago White Sox (Covey) 1:10 PM CT

After playing a double-header on Friday fatigue could be in play in Chicago as the Athletics and White Sox compete. There were 23 runs yesterday in a split but quality starting pitching is on the mound Saturday.

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Dylan Covey is nearly 27 and after flaming out last season with a 0-7 record and a 7.71 ERA in his first MLB action he has been better prepared for this season’s opportunity, living up to the potential that made him a quality prospect ironically in the Oakland organization for years. In seven starts this season Covey owns a 2.90 ERA with a corresponding 2.95 FIP. He has solid strikeout potential and has surrendered just one home run in 40 innings despite facing Cleveland three times while also facing Boston and Milwaukee in his starting efforts this season.

Daniel Mengden was also a fourth round pick from the AL West with the Astros product joining the Athletics organization in 2015. After rocky run of starts in 2016 Mengden was effective last season in seven starts and has been a reliable starter for the competitive A’s this season. His ERA is 4.06 and Mengden doesn’t have big strikeout counts but he owns a very low walk rate and two rocky outings are skewing the numbers. Mengden threw eight strong innings vs. the White Sox earlier this season and he should be in position for another solid start today.

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These teams have had high scoring games this season with the ‘over’ 5-0 but despite a clear upgrade on the mound the total Saturday is the same as both games on Friday. The bullpens have better numbers than expected for teams out of contention and the matchup favors the pitchers with Oakland batting just .234 the past 10 games and the White Sox batting just .217 the past 10 games with Chicago in particular less successful vs. right-handed pitching of late. Expect this game to break the season trends in this series this season.

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Nelly’s Baseball has won three in a row with a 19-8 run in our last 27 picks, heading towards another winning week going 4-1 since Monday! Join us for a 2-for-1 TOTALS offer for Saturday afternoon – just $15 with a guarantee to at least split!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#965/966 ‘OVER 9’ Chicago White Sox (Lopez) at Detroit Tigers (Fiers) 6:10 PM CT

Despite only one win, 24-year-old Reynaldo Lopez has delivered on the mound for the White Sox this season with a 2.98 ERA. Expectations for Lopez moving forward should be grounded however with a marginal strikeout rate and an xFIP that is nearly twice as high as his ERA at 5.44. Lopez is coming off an eight-inning shutout effort in his last start but that game was at home and in his past two road starts he surrendered 17 hits and 10 runs.

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Mike Fiers won eight games for the eventual World Series champions last season but wasn’t involved in the postseason run for the Astros. He already has four wins in eight starts for the Tigers but a 5.44 FIP suggests he could be heading towards another season of struggles as he looks to stay in the big leagues as a barely above replacement level starter. Fiers has only pitched slightly better at Comerica Park this season and left-handed batters have a robust .279 average against him with Chicago set to place five left-handed bats in the lineup tonight.

Even with some improved recent returns on Chicago’s side the bullpen numbers are rough for both teams and the ‘over’ is 20-8 in the past 28 meetings between these teams in the Motor City. A few big names are sidelined tonight but unseasonably warm conditions should play favorably for both offenses in matchup of marginal starting pitchers.

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Bobby Dalton has won five in a row in the NL while riding a 45-26 interleague run – don’t miss Friday’s Trips-2-Win 2/3 guarantee!

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Free NBA Pick Sunday

#505/506 ‘OVER 217’ Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards 5:05 PM CT

All three games in this series have flown ‘over’ the total and the oddsmakers can’t make a major adjustment on the number, though this total is a few points higher than Game 1 and 2 in Toronto. These teams have averaged more than 231 points per game so far in this series and while both teams have shot 50 percent through 12 quarter the numbers haven’t been outrageous outliers.

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Washington’s defense deteriorated down the stretch and now in nine April games the Wizards have allowed triple-digits in every single game. Toronto’s very weak schedule is showing up a bit in the postseason as despite the 2-1 edge the Raptors haven’t been dominant in this series as the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors have a severe disparity in the home and road numbers this season with the defense allowing over 46 percent shooting on the road and nearly 107 points per game on the road. Washington’s defensive numbers don’t improve dramatically at home and in a chippy series in a critical Game 4 there could be extra free throws and this total should once again get ‘over’.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#265/266 ‘OVER 43’ Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars 3:05 PM CT

The Jacksonville defense grabbed headlines last week holding Pittsburgh to nine points. Five turnovers created the success as a struggling Steelers offense still had 371 yards. In week 4 the Jets had 471 yards against Jacksonville while in the lone home game Tennessee had 37 points and 390 yards vs. the Jags as while the defense has created big plays but still have been .

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The Rams were held to 10 points last week but with 375 yards against Seattle as this remains a top offense. Jacksonville actually has the worst per carry run defense in the NFL allowing 5.4 yards per attempt as Todd Gurley could be in line for a big game on the ground against the Jaguars.

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The Rams are fifth in the NFL in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense as this is still one of the most productive teams in the league. The Rams could be vulnerable against Jacksonville’s strong rushing attack led by rookie Leonard Fournette. Los Angeles has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 134 yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns surrendered.

Wade Phillips has gone a good job against the pass leading the Rams on defense this season but with 27 or more points allowed in three of the past four games there is still work to be done. While the ground game may lead the way on both sides this week that doesn’t necessarily mean lower scoring and with a total below key numbers of 44 and 45 the ‘over’ opportunity is there on Sunday.

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