Posted on

Free MLB Pick Saturday

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) +110 over Baltimore Orioles (Cobb) 5:35 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Rays out-hit the Orioles 15-10 last night but wound up losing by five runs in a game where they had three times as many at-bats as Baltimore with runners in scoring position. The Rays left five times as many runners on base and the Orioles turned two huge rally-killing double plays in the game with a two out grand slam from Manny Machado the key play in the result for the Orioles.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Rays are still 5.5 games and a 57 runs superior to the Orioles in the standings and Baltimore is just 8-11 at Camden Yards. Somehow winning three games in a row leaves the Orioles as the favorite tonight in Game 2 of today’s double-header. While there is some risk getting involved before knowing the Game 1 outcome, the Rays have Chris Archer on the mound in the afternoon game and while he has had mixed results he should be counted on for a sustained start. The Orioles are countering with the MLB debut of David Hess with far more potential variance in his outcome and the toll on the Baltimore bullpen.

Alex Cobb was picked up by a panicked Orioles team late in spring training and the move has not paid off with a 7.61 ERA and no wins in five starts for Cobb. Facing his former team could be a challenge as the Rays scored five runs and had 10 hits against him at Oriole Park in late April and Cobb has just a 4.2 K/9 this season despite being the favorite in this matchup. Matt Andriese has been a steady fill-in starter for the Rays in recent years and his numbers this season are excellent with a 10.5 K/9 while allowing just three walks in more than 20 innings of work. His FIP is only 2.04 and while he isn’t likely to go deep in this game he has had a few longer relief outings and his starting experience could push him to a longer start tonight. The winning streak for the Orioles isn’t likely a great sign of things to come especially with a very fortunate result last night and the underdog Rays are worth a shot in Game 2.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s has won in three of four MLB weeks this season – get tonight’s TOTAL for $15! Bobby Dalton is on a 51-35 Trips-2-Win MLB run – win 2/3 tonight with the Big Dog!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#925 Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) +140 over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 9:05 PM CT

The Orioles have been a disaster this season at 8-21 but the offense has posted four or more runs in five of the past six games and the lineup has hit about 20 points higher vs. left-handed pitching this season. After a hot start the Angeles have cooled off losing four of the past five and the offense has failed to top three runs in seven of the last eight games as this looks like an overvalued team.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Dylan Bundy may be 1-3 but the other numbers make it clear he is one of the AL’s top pitchers. His ERA of 2.97 coincides with an even low 2.81 FIP and his K/9 of 10.9 is an elite figure. Bundy allowed seven earned runs in his last start after allowing a total of just five earned runs in his first five starts and a bounce-back outing should be in store in Anaheim with Bundy featuring a 1.54 ERA on the road this season.

Andrew Heaney has struggled in three starts for the Angels despite facing the struggling offenses of the Royals and Giants in two of his outings. His ERA is 6.91 and while his .429 BABIP is sure to go down he has received few groundballs and isn’t likely to keep up his current strikeout pace. Heaney hasn’t had sustained MLB success since a brief window in the 2015 season and he looks like a high risk favorite at this price with a lineup batting just .193 in the past 10 games behind him.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913 Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) +120 over Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) 6:05 PM CT

Chris Archer’s first month of 2018 has mirrored a frustrating run the past two seasons with elite strikeout counts but a very poor strand rate and a high BABIP. Archer has an ERA of 6.59 but with a FIP of just 4.65 while still continuing to produce a lot of strikeouts but he has also allowed a home run in each of his five starts.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

This could be a breakthrough season for Dylan Bundy who fared respectably in 28 starts last season despite slightly worse numbers than in his rookie season of 2016. Bundy has an 11.4 K/9 but his 1.42 ERA isn’t deserved. Bundy has faced tough lineups this season but winning games has been a challenge with the Orioles 6-18 this season.

Tampa Bay has climbed back to relevance with five wins in a row and the Rays are 38 runs superior to Baltimore in net scoring differential. Baltimore is only 3-8 at home this season and the usually great bullpen owns a 4.57 ERA on the season with five blown saves. The Orioles are batting just .203 vs. right-handers this season compared to a steady .253 mark for the Rays and this battle of strikeout artists should favor the road underdog.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Bobby Dalton went 2-0  in NBA Playoff picks last night – don’t miss Thursday’s TOTAL for just $12. Nelly’s has won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs, hitting over 60% on the season – guaranteed Game 6 side tonight for $15!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#923 Washington Nationals (Lopez) +145 over Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) 6:05 PM CT

Reynaldo Lopez might be a wild card for the Nationals down the stretch as the 22-year old has impressed through four starts with a 10.3 K/9 rate and a 3.32 FIP. He has benefitted from facing Atlanta twice but he is facing an Orioles team that has been erratic offensively of late and the once owners of the best home record in baseball are just 2-5 on the current home stand even after last night’s 4-3 win. Kevin Gausman couldn’t buy a win early in the season despite very effective numbers but he has been less effective down the stretch. Since mid-June his ERA is 4.70 with a corresponding 4.42 FIP and while he is generating strikeouts he has allowed 74 hits in 67 innings in that span including 13 home runs allowed. Gausman has far better numbers at home where the Orioles are 6-3 in his starts but a Washington lineup coming off back-to-back one-run losses will be ready for this matchup. The Nationals have an eight-game lead in the NL East as there is not great urgency but on the season Washington is 125 runs superior to Baltimore in run differential even with the Orioles staying in the playoff chase. Washington is 26-13 this season in the second game of a series and over the last 10 games the Nationals are batting .281 with 7.5 runs per game vs. right-handed pitching. Washington is 5-4 in the last nine games as an underdog and this is a favorable price on a talented young pitcher that should be well supported.

[displayProduct type=”box” sort=”lowhigh” perpage=”6″ productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” box=image,title,price,button,excerpt]