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System of the Week

With all the schedule changes and edits we need to get the Green Sheet out this week we didn’t include a system play of the week in Green Sheet Issue #19. Here is a college System play for Saturday:

PLAY AGAINST Any NCAA double-digit road favorite that won S/U as a home underdog in the previous game.

62-41-3 ATS since 1983, 60.2%

PLAY AGAINST: Northwestern

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Thursday Football

A huge AFC game kicks off Week 10 Thursday night. Bobby Dalton has a side play and Point Train has a total play to build on great recent runs. Dalton had a 4-1 Sunday last week in the NFL while also winning Thursday, Friday, and Saturday in football picks. Point Train is on a 16-8 NFL run since Week 3.

Green Sheet Issue #17 was sent out on Wednesday, Key Selections are 14-7 the past two weeks and Rating 5 Keys are 11-3 on the season.

Big E is expecting his 25* NCAA Game of the Year this weekend – he started off the week 1-0 with a MAC winner last night.

Look for more releases later today and Friday for a big mid-November weekend in pro and college football:

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Green Sheet Issue #6 is posted

Don’t miss this week’s issue of the Green Sheet with an in-depth look at the 2020-21 football season in the Big XII.

Can Oklahoma continue its reign in the conference or can a team like Texas or Oklahoma State rise to the top. Four head coaches will be looking to take a step forward in their second seasons while Dave Aranda joins the conference as one of the most accomplished first time head coaches in recent memory.

Get this week’s issue for only $12 or join for the entire season subscription for only $99!

That season price includes all five past issues and works out to just over $3 per issue for the season! That rate goes up to $149 soon, don’t wait any longer!

Baseball and Basketball are just around the corner – email us at nelly@nellysports.com if you’d like our MLB Preview or our NBA Restart Guide!

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Green Sheet Issue #5 in the SEC

This week’s Green Sheet release is all about the SEC. LSU delivered a historically great championship season last year to keep the conference on top of college football. The Tigers will return minimal experience in 2020 as there is likely to be a change at the top. 

Find out which three programs return top five experience ratings on both sides of the ball for 2020, one of which rates as a clear surprise candidate given its schedule with a 10-0 start very possible. We also have seven pages of coaching stats and team history, along with the 2020 schedules in this week’s issue. 
Find out which coach is a nearly 79% ATS proposition in his career as a road favorite, including going 4-0 last season in that role. What role has Nick Saban only covered at a 20% ATS rate in his tenure at Alabama? It is the same role that Gus Malzahn has covered at an 80% clip in his time at Auburn.

Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin are well-traveled high-profile additions to the SEC this season and we have all of their past results broken down in Green Sheet issue #5, available now for just $12, or you can still sign up for the full season subscription for only $99, this rate will be going up to $149 soon, so don’t delay! 

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NFL 2020 Travel

This week’s Issue #3 of the Green Sheet newsletter will be all about the 2020 NFL schedule which was released in early May.

One aspect we always like to consider is the travel mileage for each team. While this total can be overstated at times, it is useful when comparing teams and the wear they could accumulate at certain points in the season.

This 2020 NFL Travel Chart doesn’t provide a perfect picture as often teams are able to combine back-to-back road games and airport mileage isn’t always precise, but it does give you a snapshot of which teams have the most time in the air ahead and which teams could have more potential disruptions to their week-to-week plans.

Football is looking more and more likely this fall and the 2020 Green Sheet subscription will cover the entire campaign from now through the Super Bowl in the NFL and college football. Don’t miss this week’s NFL schedule issue and all past and future issues this season!

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NFL Draft Props

The NFL Draft starts tonight and a welcome look back into the sports schedule.

We’ll have some NFL Draft grades in Green Sheet Issue #2 next week, along with our NFC Coaching Reference Guide. Get the AFC Coaching Reference Guide in Green Sheet Issue #1, sent out in mid-April to our subscribers.

The $99 Green Sheet season subscription rate will expire at the end of April, sign up now for the best price for the 2020-21 football season.

Total Wide Receivers Drafted in Round 1

Under 6.5 (-240)

The depth of this year’s Wide Receiver group has been well publicized and while there may be seven or more players with the potential to be a 1st Round pick, there aren’t likely to be seven actually picked. Six teams don’t have a first round pick while several others have multiple first rounders so the amount of viable spots for a top wide receiver to land is diminished. There appears to be four clear 1st round wide receivers while the grouping of the receivers that most generally grade 5th through 9th is tightly packed and teams will likely be patient to wait on a run of receivers to start. Several teams in the market for a receiver also have early second round options and seem likely to see if they can get away with waiting. 

Total Alabama Players to be Drafted in the First Round

Under 5.5 (-130)

Jedrick Wills, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, and Terrell Lewis seem likely to be mid-to-late 1st round selections while most assume Tua Tagovailoa will be an early 1st round pick. Coming off an injury Tagovailoa looks like one of the more polarizing projections in the draft and could be a candidate for a major slide, even to round 2 as he is likely only a clear fit for a few teams. Finding a sixth Alabama first rounder is difficult as while Trevon Diggs is a highly rated player, he grades 5th or 6th among cornerbacks in a deep draft at the position while likewise safety Xavier McKinney will likely slip as no safety was picked in the 1st round last season. 

Total ACC Players Drafted in the First Round

Under 3.5 (-230)

As loaded as Clemson has been the Tigers only have two clear 1st round picks ahead in this draft with defensive stars Isaiah Simmons and A.J. Terrell, with only Simmons a lock to be an early pick. Louisville offensive lineman Mekhi Becton looks like the only other obvious 1st round option for the ACC and he could slide after acknowledging a failed drug test. In a normal year Tee Higgins could be a first round pick but the wide receiver block is so deep this year, there isn’t room for him in round 1 as the third Clemson player to be drafted. Cam Akers from Florida State could be next from the ACC but it is questionable whether any running back will be taken in round 1 and Akers isn’t at the top of that position list. 

More first round picks, the SEC vs the Field

All other conferences (-120)

LSU and Alabama could combine to reach double-digits for players taken in the first round while Auburn, South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia all have a single player to contribute among those nearly universally projected in round 1. A lot of mock drafts call for a big run of SEC players late in the first round but those picks are also frequently traded as teams scramble to land a coveted player that has slipped from the predicted chart. The depth from Alabama and LSU isn’t coming from scarce positions as teams aren’t likely to send a lot of draft capital to move into the back of round 1 to grab a wide receiver or defensive back. Most of the fringe first rounders that could be chased with those late 1st round picks will be edge rushers and offensive linemen, or even a quarterback that slides, and most of those candidates in that range of the draft are coming from outside the SEC. 

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Green Sheet Early Look

Check our a short preview of our first off-season issue of the 2020-21 Green Sheet.

Click Here for a Green Sheet Early Look

The Green Sheet for the 2020-21 season and that will be an online only subscription released in the middle of each week. The subscription will start with several off-season issues in early to mid-April. We’ll have a $99.00 season subscription rate available until the first issue comes out in April.

Support us in this lean period of the calendar by signing up in advance for next season at a greatly discounted rate.

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Green Sheet Issue #2

Our second Green Sheet issue dives into the 2019 NFL schedule with nearly 3,000 words of analysis plus schedule numbers and rankings in seven categories for all 32 NFL teams.

Find out great nuggets from the schedule analysis: One team has a 30-44 S/U since 2000 scenario on the schedule and that squad is likely to be a favorite in that game. Three teams fall into a win total valuation situation that is 4-1 the past two years including pegging major collapses from the Jaguars and 49ers last season – teams that fell short of the summer win total numbers by 4.5 games! There is one team that fits a scheduling role that has produced teams combining to go 56-39-1 the past two years. Another simple schedule formula has produced the ‘over’ in five of six win totals the past two seasons and four squads apply in 2019. Find out those teams and more in Green Sheet Issue #2.

This is just a four-page issue and as such is only $6 instead of the regular $12 price – sign up right here!

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2019-20 Green Sheet #1

We have released a short off-season issue of the Green Sheet that includes the 2019 NFL Schedule Grid plus a coaching reference sheet to hang on to for the upcoming NFL season.

If you are not already signed up for the Green Sheet now is a great time to get on board as we plan to have several more off-season issues before the weekly subscription begins in late July.

Check out the first issue here – and save $10 on the full season subscription if you sign-up by May 10 using the COUPON CODE: MAY10

A $150 savings on the Nelly’s Full Season Phone Service for the 2019-20 football season expires on May 1 and a $100 discount will expire on June 1 – the phone service includes the full Green Sheet subscription as well.

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Eliminator Contest Standings

The Big E Sports Ticket had a close call last week but with a push he remains with ZERO points four weeks into the contest, leading the way at 7-0-1.

Don’t miss his next Eliminator Picks on Thursday afternoon or consider his service plays with his TOP 5 TICKET and his full weekend package released for an early start on this week’s action. Big E has won four consecutive 20* picks the past four Saturday and this week’s Conference Game of the Year will be in the MAC.

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Close behind in the contest is long-time participant Billy Coleman at 7-1 with only two points, taking his first loss last week with a NFL total. Tied in second place is James Patrick Sports, the 2016 contest champion also with just two points. Eight contestants are still with four or fewer points and moving up to fourth place this week is BB Documented Plays, a new entrant this season that is making some noise with a 4-0 Double Play record.

The Week 5 Contest Picks will be posted Thursday afternoon – check here for the COMPLETE STANDINGS.

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