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13-4 MLB RUN

Nelly’s had winning months of July and August in the 2020 MLB season and we are already 4-1 in September, riding a 13-4 overall run since August 18.

Don’t miss a Daytime Delivery Total on the diamond Sunday or consider joining through the World Series with nearly two full months of the season remaining.

Bobby Dalton also cashed a 7star in MLB action last night – he also was a winner in the NBA Playoffs with a 7star total!

Nelly’s is 5-2 in the 2nd Round of the NBA Playoffs so far looking to build on an over 63% NBA regular season in 2019-20. We’ll play a side in one of today’s Playoff Matchups – just $15 pay after you win!

Big E has released two football picks and both were winners with 1-0 results in college football Thursday & Saturday!

The next issue of the Green Sheet covering NFL Week 1 will be out by Wednesday, Sep. 9!

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NBA Playoffs start today!

Win Early with Bobby Dalton and late with Nelly’s in Day 1 of the NBA Playoffs Monday! With every team sharing the same few venues the action will be incredible in the first round with day and night games throughout.

Bobby Dalton closed the restart with wins in three of his last four picks and he is ready to deliver in postseason action with a daytime pick for only $10!

Nelly’s closed down a huge NBA regular season with a great run in the restart games to finish over 63% for the 2019-20 NBA regular season, our third straight NBA regular season over 63%! Join us for a playoff pick for Monday night for only $15 or join for our entire playoff package for only $129, that’s about $15 a week!

Dalton also has picks in NHL and MLB action for Monday as well!

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

905/906 UNDER 9 Texas Rangers (Minor) at Oakland Athletics (Fiers) 2:40 PM CT

Mike Minor has lost both of his starts this season but his FIP of 3.36 sits well below his 5.91 ERA, he has simply had terrible luck with nearly half of his base runners coming around to score. Minor has been a reliable option for the Rangers the past two seasons but he has struggled vs. Oakland allowing 17 runs in three starts last season. The Athletics crushed left-handed pitching with an .811 OPS in 2019 but the splits have gone the other way so far this season. With five straight wins and 28 runs so far in August, Oakland is emerging as a serious AL contender but the Coliseum remains a favorable pitching park. Mike Fiers also had a FIP much lower than his 5.40 ERA and should have better luck with base runners in upcoming starts. Fiers actually pitched quite well in his last three starts of 2019 vs. the Rangers and last night’s 10-run output was quite misleading. There were only 14 hits in the game and a combined seven at-bats with runners in scoring position. Even with the loss the Rangers preserved its bullpen last night while Burch Smith gave an extended relief outing to keep Oakland with most top options available today. Last night’s total was just 8 and there isn’t significant reason to move today’s number a full run given a pitching matchup that is of similar caliber, albeit with much less strikeout potential. Both teams are outside MLB’s top 18 in team wOBA and strong walk rates for both lineups aren’t likely to be a big factor in this pitching matchup.

Nelly’s Baseball has hit 60% in 2020 including three straight wins the past three days including a nice underdog win on the Blue Jays last night. Join us for a TOTAL for Thursday night for only $15!


Nelly’s has also hit 60% in the NBA Restart to build on great gains in the 2019-20 regular season. Check out tonight’s Basketball Pick as well or join for the Playoffs!

Bobby Dalton has offers in MLB, NBA, and NHL action today – also check back for Horse Racing this weekend with the Big Dog!

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MLB Season Opens July 23

Baseball is finally ready to start its season on Thursday night!

We posted our usual MLB Preview Guide a few weeks ago with the below win total predictions for the abbreviated MLB season. We are ready to go and could have our first pick on opening night!

Daily updates via email and/or text are included with our 2020 MLB Season Subscription available for only $199 – with the season from late July to the end of October that is just ~$60 a month!

Bobby Dalton also expects to post regular MLB updates and has his season package available with a great history of success on the diamond.

Here are the win totals we posted in early July:

NL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Philadelphia Phillies: A third of the games for the Phillies will be against the Nats and the Braves, clear NL contenders. Add in 10 more games with a formidable Mets rotation and wins will be tough to come by for a limited offensive team. The Marlins pitching staff even offers some promise while the AL East draw won’t do the Phillies any favors. New acquisition Zack Wheeler has already questioned being able to finish the season with his first child on the way while putting the DH in the NL isn’t likely to benefit the Philadelphia lineup as much as other teams in the division with better offensive depth. Aaron Nola regressed last season and returning to his 2018 form isn’t likely in a short season as he has been a very slow starter with a 5.68 ERA in March/April in his career. Rookie Spencer Howard is likely the leading candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation with Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin at best average options after Nola. The Philadelphia bullpen is already littered with injuries for a unit that had limited promise to start with. 31½ doesn’t sound like an overwhelming figure, but the Phillies were just a .500 team in 2019 and haven’t topped .500 in a season since the 2011 campaign.  

NL CENTRAL

BEST BET: OVER 30½ Wins – Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers don’t have many household names in the rotation following rising star Brandon Woodruff but the Brewers should be well-suited for a short campaign as they can lean on the deep and versatile bullpen. Milwaukee is 55 games above .500 the past three years combined and last season made its great late season run without Christian Yelich. The Cubs and Pirates are surely candidates to decline in 2020 compared to last season while drawing a third of the schedule against the AL Central while completely avoiding the NL East and NL West teams is a huge plus for Milwaukee’s chances at returning to the playoffs for a third straight season. While Craig Counsell’s creativity may take a hit with the implementation of the DH in the NL this season, the Brewers have viable DH candidates in an aging Ryan Braun and defensively challenged Keston Hiura, while sluggers Ryon Healy and Logan Morrison are also in camp looking to possibly earn a spot behind new addition Justin Smoak. Another newcomer Avisail Garcia also could reemerge as a major contributor after battling injuries the past two seasons in Chicago and Tampa Bay.

NL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 31 – Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dodgers are certainly the favorites in the West but Arizona held its own in that series last season and went 39-32 after the All Star break in 2019 despite falling out of the playoff race with a mid-September slide. Madison Bumgarner is the high-profile addition to lead the staff but Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, and Luke Weaver give the Diamondbacks a solid rotation top-to-bottom. The schedule will also work out well for Arizona with 30 games ahead vs. the Rockies, Padres, and Giants, division foes that Arizona could have done much better against last season. Houston and Oakland will be difficult draws from the AL but that division crossover will also bring four games with Seattle and will mean much lesser travel than the team is accustomed to. Arizona has had three consecutive winning seasons, even in years dealing with a historically great Dodgers team and a more formidable Colorado team than is expected this season. The Rockies have a bit of rebound potential this season but the Giants aren’t as likely to hang around as long this season, while San Diego remains a team with many question marks. The Dodgers will also lean on three ultra-young starters behind Clayton Kershaw which could mean some inconsistency and more work for the bullpen.

AL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Boston Red Sox: The 2018 Red Sox were a historically great team with 108 wins and a World Series title. Last season Boston dropped to just 84 wins and the climb downward could continue in the abbreviated 2020 season. New York and Tampa Bay look like perhaps the top two AL contenders and those two teams will fill a third of Boston’s schedule, teams the Red Sox combined to go 12-26 against last season. Last season’s #5 starter for the Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez is now the staff ace by default while Nathan Eovaldi and Collin McHugh back from injuries and an aging Martin Perez off a season overachievement will need to fill out the rotation. Subtracting Mookie Betts isn’t going to spell improvement as the lineup is much less intimidating and will also draw 20 games against the pitching-rich NL East as well, with Boston only 10-10 in interleague play last season. Boston went 21-11 vs. the AL Central last season and had a winning record against four of five AL West teams and now has all of those opponents erased. 31½ sounds low for a popular Red Sox team accustomed to being in contention but winning 32 games means a 53.3% winning percentage for at team that won at a 51.9% clip last season. 

AL CENTRAL

BEST BET: UNDER 34 – Minnesota Twins: Given that the Twins will play the Royals and Tigers 20 times and capable but not overly formidable Cleveland and Chicago squads 20 times, many will call for a great season in Minnesota. The Twins were clear overachievers last season with 101 wins however in a historically great home run season. Minnesota got unexpected starting pitching last season and now is turning to three veterans that have battled injuries and inconsistency in recent years to replace much of that success. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi also are regression candidates at the top of the rotation and the short summer camp will likely mean more reliance on a bullpen that lacked quality depth last season. The NL Central draw is a tricky one with likely four quality teams in that group and the Twins were just 8-12 in interleague games last season. Minnesota still lost its season series with the Indians last year and was a fortunate team in one-run games with a 23-12 record. A huge 21-8 May buoyed the season with Minnesota a more average performer in the mid-summer months before another embarrassing playoff sweep. Josh Donaldson is a high profile addition but several returnees might struggle to match their 2019 pace.

AL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 28½ – Texas Rangers: The new ballpark will be an unknown factor but there remains a lot to like about the Texas lineup. Adding Corey Kluber gives the Rangers a potential ace to match with the quality results Lance Lynn and Mike Minor have provided while Kyle Gibson remains a pitcher with a tantalizing upside. The rotation is high on experience which could help to offset some of the uncertainty in the bullpen. The case for the Rangers also hinges on clear paths to decline from Houston and Oakland. The Astros will remain formidable but two expected starters in the rotation haven’t even reported yet and everyone will be looking to spoil Houston’s season. Oakland also has some regression potential after back-to-back 97-win seasons. The five projected starters for Oakland won a combined 30 games last season and while the bullpen can carry the team it may be a tougher path. Seattle looks like one of the worst teams in baseball this season as Texas could produce a much better record in that series this season. The NL West interleague draw also offers some matchup and travel benefits to the Rangers as this team that was 48-42 at the All Star break last season has the potential to be a sleeper in the AL playoff race. Texas should at least have a good shot for a .500 campaign following three straight losing seasons.

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NBA Restart July 30

The NBA will restart on July 30 with an eight-game finish to the regular season to finalize the seeding for the playoffs, with a new possible twist in play for the final spot in each conference.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Join us for the entire duration from July through October,  featuring nearly three months of daily updates for just $199. 

We will be posting a short preview guide for the restart this week – email us at nelly@nellysports.com to receive a copy when it is sent out (likely by July 17), including a look at each remaining team and several win total predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS (Odds to Win Conference):

Milwaukee Bucks (-185): The Bucks are a massive favorite to win the Eastern Conference and almost certainly will be the #1 seed in the playoffs. There is no home court advantage ahead however and the Bucks were ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals last season in six games against Toronto despite being the #1 seed. A franchise and city in a long title drought will have a harder path than they deserved in these circumstances.

Toronto Raptors (+600): No one expected the Raptors to be in same position they were last season without Kawhi Leonard but Toronto is on pace to again be the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. At +600 to win the East few are banking on another long postseason run but the restart does provide an opportunity for a team that has proven many wrong before.

Boston Celtics (+550): The Celtics are +550 to win the Eat despite being closer to falling to the #4 spot than moving up to the #2 spot at the restart. Gordon Hayward is also expected to leave the bubble in September for the birth of a child in the middle of possibly the conference finals if the Celtics get that far. Respect for Brad Stevens in these unusual circumstances is carrying some weight.

Miami Heat (+1100): The Heat are a surprise top four team and will be saddled with a tough schedule out of the restart with four difficult games including facing the three teams above them in the standings. Indiana and Philadelphia are just two games behind Miami, though the urgency in playing for seeding may be less significant in this format… this content continues in our NBA Restart preview guide.

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Green Sheet Issue #5 in the SEC

This week’s Green Sheet release is all about the SEC. LSU delivered a historically great championship season last year to keep the conference on top of college football. The Tigers will return minimal experience in 2020 as there is likely to be a change at the top. 

Find out which three programs return top five experience ratings on both sides of the ball for 2020, one of which rates as a clear surprise candidate given its schedule with a 10-0 start very possible. We also have seven pages of coaching stats and team history, along with the 2020 schedules in this week’s issue. 
Find out which coach is a nearly 79% ATS proposition in his career as a road favorite, including going 4-0 last season in that role. What role has Nick Saban only covered at a 20% ATS rate in his tenure at Alabama? It is the same role that Gus Malzahn has covered at an 80% clip in his time at Auburn.

Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin are well-traveled high-profile additions to the SEC this season and we have all of their past results broken down in Green Sheet issue #5, available now for just $12, or you can still sign up for the full season subscription for only $99, this rate will be going up to $149 soon, so don’t delay! 

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Sports will be returning soon!

The NBA is set to return on July 31, MLB is continuing its discussions, the NFL remains on schedule. It also appears that college football is looking promising as well, our first college football content for the Green Sheet will be out in Issue #4 around June 24.

Get the full season subscription to the 2020-21 Green Sheet football newsletter for just $99 until June 30, the subscription price goes up to $149 after that!

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Green Sheet Early Look

Check our a short preview of our first off-season issue of the 2020-21 Green Sheet.

Click Here for a Green Sheet Early Look

The Green Sheet for the 2020-21 season and that will be an online only subscription released in the middle of each week. The subscription will start with several off-season issues in early to mid-April. We’ll have a $99.00 season subscription rate available until the first issue comes out in April.

Support us in this lean period of the calendar by signing up in advance for next season at a greatly discounted rate.

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March Update

We wish we had NCAA Tournament picks to post for you this week but the sports world is on hold and unfortunately our successful 2019-2020 basketball season has been cut short. We’ll hope the NBA playoffs will return at some point this summer and we’ll be preparing for an abbreviated MLB season and hope that football can stay on schedule this fall.

It is a difficult time for everyone right now and our business will certainly be greatly impacted by the absence of a sports schedule. We have parked our Free Pick Phone line and PIN system lines for the time being and will plan to activate those lines when the action returns.

We do plan to move forward with a Green Sheet for the 2020-21 season and that will be an online only subscription that will start with several off-season issues in mid-April. We’ll have a $99.00 season subscription rate available until the first issue comes out in April. Support us in this lean period of the calendar by signing up in advance for next season at a greatly discounted rate.

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#622 Virginia Tech +7.5 over Duke 6:00 PM CT

As usual Duke looks like one of the most talented teams in the nation and the 8-1 record through nine games features a pair of very impressive wins at the bookends, beating Kansas in the opener and besting Michigan State on Tuesday with both of those games away from home. Going from Tuesday’s huge win in East Lansing vs. the preseason #1 to facing the ACC opener on the road will be a difficult turnaround for the young Blue Devils who have struggled with turnovers and free throw shooting. Virginia Tech also beat Michigan State and is already 1-0 in ACC play for new head coach Mike Young who took over after Buzz Williams left for Texas A&M. The longtime Wofford coach won 30 games last season including a NCAA Tournament win over Seton Hall last March. A 6-0 start with the Hokies has spoiled to 6-2 but the team has had a long layoff of more than a week to prepare for one of the biggest games of the season. The Hokies lost only twice at home last season including beating Duke 77-72 before ultimately ending its season with a two-point Sweet 16 loss to the Blue Devils as there will be no shortage of motivation even if the roster has turned over considerably. The Hokies are starting three freshman but Young’s impact has been instant with some of the best numbers in the nation shooting and taking care of the ball, including an over 43 percent 3-point shooting clip so far. Cassius Stanley is out of action for Duke to take out a possible matchup edge against a smaller Hokies team and at +7 one of the best shooting teams in the country is worth a look at home with Duke coming off a huge win on the national stage.

Nelly’s hit 62% in November basketball and we cashed with Furman in college hoops last night, nearly upsetting Auburn in overtime as a massive underdog. We’ve hit 64 percent in the NBA this season already – join us for a Friday night side play or consider signing up for an extended subscription as we are well on our way to a third huge season in basketball in a row.