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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#841 Miami, FL +4.5 over Virginia Tech 8:00 PM CT

It has not been a strong season for the ACC and Jim Larranaga is on his way to another disappointing season at Miami. The Hurricanes have as many conference wins as last season already however and have played its best in the past week with consecutive wins. Miami does have an ACC road win and has had to play mostly heavyweights on the road taking losses at Louisville, Duke, and Florida State in ACC road games. Miami won by 10 hosting Virginia Tech with a big edge in rebounding and interior scoring and those advantages should again show up with a massive frontcourt size edge for the Hurricanes. A transition season for Virginia Tech was expected but the team picked up a big November win for Mike Young beating Michigan State. A respectable 5-3 start in ACC play followed but the Hokies have now lost five of the past six while losing four times at home in ACC play. Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh last weekend to snap a five-game slide but offensive rebounding was a clear problem with the Hokies the worst in the conference on the offensive glass. Virginia Tech takes care of the ball but is a lousy 3-point shooting team despite being more reliant on shots beyond the arc than any team in the ACC. Virginia Tech has also struggled despite opposing teams shooting only 66 percent at the free throw line against them. Miami has played the most difficult ACC schedule at this point in the season and is only one win short of the Hokies who have had one of the lightest conference paths. Another win for the Hurricanes won’t be a surprise in this series.

Nelly’s basketball is on a 29-16 64% run the past 29 days since Jan. 21. Don’t miss tonight’s 2/3 offer or join for the remaining 11 days of February for only $89!

Bobby Dalton is 8-2 the past seven days in basketball – get a 7* tonight in the Pac-12 for $19!

Big E has won three straight 20* picks – get his SoCon GOY Wednesday for $20.94!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#626 Kent State -7 over Ohio 12:00 PM CT

Ohio has a top 100 road win at St. Bonaventure but that win was back on November 5. In MAC play the Bobcats are 1-4 on the road with only a two-point win at Eastern Michigan in a game that featured a big comeback and a massive free throw edge. Ohio enters this game off back-to-back wins but both games were at home against lesser MAC foes. Now back on the road the Bobcats could struggle having gone 4-7 through one of the weakest schedules in the MAC so far. Kent State is only 6-5 in MAC play but grades as a far better offensive performer through a difficult conference schedule so far. The Flashes are coming off back-to-back narrow losses and all five MAC defeats have come by single-digit margins as this team could easily have a stronger record. Kent State is 10-2 at home this season and is one of the best shooting teams in the conference, particularly from long range connecting at nearly 37 percent from 3-point range. The Flashes are also the best 2-point defense in the MAC as there should be clear advantages for the home team in this contest. Kent State has a veteran roster that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and the Flashes won both meetings last season while winning nine of the past 12 in this series. Ohio last won at Kent State in 2014 and home court should hold again.

Nelly’s is on a 26-13, 66.7% run the past 25 days in basketball – join us for 2/3 on Saturday for only $25 or consider signing up for another big March Madness run with a recently reduced package price!

The Big Dog Bobby Dalton has a huge day lined up with Early and Evening 3-game offers in college basketball. His early package includes a 10* Best Bet (10-1 run in basketball 10* picks since Jan. 22).

Dalton is also on an 11-0 football run in sides and totals including a 2-0 start in XFL – his first 10* Best Bet goes today!

Big E won 20* picks Wednesday and Thursday and is 11-5 in 15* and higher selections this season! Big E has a big play in the Big Ten scheduled for Saturday!

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#877 Illinois-Chicago +11 over Wright State 8:00 PM CT

Illinois-Chicago owns an ugly 12-14 overall record but the Flames have found some rhythm in Horizon play with a 6-2 run with one of those losses coming by just a single point. On the run of solid play Illinois-Chicago has been on the road a lot with five consecutive road games at one point but as it stands the Flames have won four of seven road games in league play with only one loss coming by more than two points with that being the first conference road game of the season. Illinois-Chicago stunned Wright State at home in mid-January with a 76-72 win despite a sloppy effort with 19 turnovers and a deficit at the free throw line. Illinois-Chicago scored inside with ease with a front court with three starters 6’8” or taller as Michael Diggins, Jordan Blount, and Braelen Bridges combined to make 19 of 28 shots. Wright State shot just 36 percent in that game as the interior points were very difficult to find. The small Raiders lineup is likely to have problems again in this matchup and this is a hefty home favorite price in Dayton. Wright State has lost two home games this season and while the team is 7-0 at home in conference play there have been some close calls along the way with six of those games decided by 13 or fewer points. Scott Nagy’s team has drawn the second weakest schedule in the league so far and Illinois-Chicago grades as the second best defense in the conference though a tougher schedule despite sitting in the middle of the pack. Turnovers are a concern for UIC in this matchup but the Flames look likely to hold their own on the boards while scoring inside with success against a lineup that is the worst in the conference defending 2-point shots. Illinois-Chicago has won three in a row in this series and Wright State has just one win in by more than seven points in the past seven meetings.

Nelly’s is on a 26-13 run for 66.7% the past 24 days. Don’t miss Saturday’s selections or consider joining for March Madness or the rest of February. Nelly’s is on a 178-123 6-year run in March and April college picks including three straight huge March runs. We are 34-18 in the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons including 13-5 in the Round of 64!

Bobby Dalton is 2-0 in XFL action and his first 10* of the season is ahead for Saturday! Counting the NFL, Dalton is on an 11-0 football streak in sides and totals after a big finish to the playoffs. Dalton has also gone 10-1 in his basketball 10* Best Bets since January 22!

Big E is back on track posting 20* winners Wednesday and Thursday, now 11-5 on the season in 15* and higher picks. Don’t miss a 20* in the Big Ten on Saturday or check out Friday’s 10* Biggie!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#673 Virginia +7.5 over Louisville 3:00 PM CT

At 11-1 Louisville appears to have control of the ACC but the path has been one of the lightest in a down year for the conference. The Cardinals are balanced but there are few things in ACC play that the team has been the best at among the 15 teams. The one exception is an outrageous 45 percent 3-point shooting rate that won’t be sustainable. That is five percent better than the 40 percent season average for Louisville that checks in at fourth nationally.

Louisville has played many of the worst teams in the ACC already and still is mostly playing close games with five of the past eight games decided by 10 or fewer points including a big comeback on Wednesday night at home vs. Wake Forest. Virginia has won three in a row to climb back into the NCAA Tournament discussion while still a viable threat to finish in a top tier spot in the ACC. As usual this is one of the nation’s best defensive teams holding foes to 29 percent 3-point shooting. Virginia has five wins away from home this season including three ACC road wins while the team’s four ACC defeats are by 7, 8, 4, and 2 points respectively.

Virginia is 14-3 all-time vs. Louisville with nine straight wins in this series including four straight wins on the road. Only once all-time has Louisville defeated Virginia by more than three points and that was back in 1990. The offensive numbers for Virginia are problematic but the Cavaliers will slow the pace of this game to a crawl to minimize the possession count. Louisville has had trouble scoring inside this season and the 3-point shooting rate for the Cardinals looks certain to go down in this contest as the points will be appealing.

Nelly’s Basketball is on a 20-8 run the past 17 days – join us for our college 2/3 offer today!

Big E has his next 20* in the Big West tonight to build on a 6-3-1 run in those big picks.

Don’t miss the XFL opener from Bobby Dalton as well as a great offer in basketball!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#630 Texas Tech -9 over Oklahoma 8:00 PM CT

Beating Oklahoma State isn’t overly consequential this season but the Sooner bested their rival 82-69 on Saturday for an impressive home result, leading wire-to-wire and leading by 20 at one point in the second half. A lot went right with 12 3-point makes and a 50 percent shooting game overall against a Cowboys team that has slide to 0-8 in the Big XII. Oklahoma is 4-4 in league play but the wins have all come against the bottom half of the league. The Sooners have lost three straight road games and are 2-6 in true road games this season with the last road win nearly a month ago.

After last season’s near national title, Chris Beard had significant work to do this season at Texas Tech, needing to replace a number of key players. The Red Raiders have eight losses already but five of those defeats against top 20 caliber teams. The two home losses came by five points vs. now #1 Baylor and in overtime by two points vs. Kentucky. Last Saturday Texas Tech lost by only three in Lawrence vs. highly-ranked Kansas and in the last home game the Red Raiders blasted a highly ranked West Virginia team with 89 points.

The line on this game has been adjusted a bit too high but the Red Raiders have won by a combined margin of 63 points in three Big XII home wins and while these teams are both 4-4 in the conference the records and numbers suggest dramatically different teams. Texas Tech is a top four team in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite a much more difficult schedule so far and the Red Raiders are #1 in the Big XII on offense and defense in 3-point shooting percentage. That will be critical against a Sooners team that is second in the conference in 3-point attempts. The Red Raiders are five percent better at the free throw line and much better at creating turnovers as well. Some evening buy-back looks possible with this line jumping from 7.5 to 9 and if it slips back downward the Red Raiders may be play-able at more than a free pick level.

Nelly’s Basketball is 17-5 since January 21 for a huge run in the heart of the season. We won our first top play of the season last week and have another great college 2* opportunity ahead Tuesday night. Pay after you win for $25 or join us for the rest of February for $199. We’ve won in all three months this season and have a winning record in 12 of the past 15 months of February historically.

Bobby Dalton also had a big January and has won six consecutive 10* Best Bets – get a 10* as part of a Trips-2-Win offer for Tuesday night.

The Big E is on a big basketball run the past seven weeks, winning again last night. A 10* Biggie will be up for Tuesday before huge games Wednesday and Thursday. His 15* Game of the Month is scheduled for Wednesday (3-0 in 15* picks) and his 20* Big Sky Game of the Year is scheduled for Thursday (6-2-1 in 20* picks).

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Nelly’s Free Saturday Pick

#786 Syracuse +7 over Duke 7:00 PM CT

The past five meetings with Duke for Syracuse have featured a win and three single-digit losses as the Orange have played the Blue Devils tough in recent years. Syracuse is coming off a one-point road loss on Tuesday at Clemson but will have an opportunity to bounce back in a big way on Saturday in this marquee home game. Syracuse has lost four home games this season but the past two defeats came by a combined total of five points. This team has great offensive efficiency numbers despite the low-scoring pace and has a clear size edge defensively in the starting fives, particularly with Wendell Moore injured. Duke also lost its last road game at Clemson and the only ACC road wins were at Virginia Tech, at Miami, and at Georgia Tech as this will be the toughest ACC road game the young Blue Devils have faced. Duke’s ACC path grades as the 15th toughest slate out of 15 teams at this point in the season yet statistically Syracuse in a 6-4 ACC start has compared favorably with Duke. Syracuse is a top 5 ACC team on offense and defense in the ACC and has a 13 percent edge in free throw shooting while featuring a lower turnover rate. Duke could continue to climb up the ladder as a top ACC and national threat but the Blue Devils haven’t proven much in conference play so far and could be overpriced as a popular road favorite in the prime time slot.

Nelly’s is 7-0 since Tuesday and 15-2 the past 11 days for a huge finish to January. We’ve won every month this season and have a winning record in 12 of the past 15 months of February. Join us for Saturday’s 2/3 offer for $25 or consider playing for all 29 days of February for only $199.

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#809 Alabama +5.5 over LSU 6:00 PM CT

LSU has certainly had some good fortune on its way to a 15-4 mark, rebounding nicely amidst lower expectations after a Sweet 16 season a year ago that was marred by controversy surrounding Will Wade. After a mediocre 7-4 start to the season the Tigers have won eight in a row including a perfect 6-0 start in SEC play. The noteworthy wins over Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Florida all came at home and all came by a grand total of five points combined. LSU has now won six straight games by no more than four points including an overtime win but will lay at least five tonight hosting Alabama.

Alabama is 12-7 behind new head coach Nate Oats who led Buffalo to NCAA Tournament wins the past two seasons. Alabama has won four straight games and has six top 100 wins in the last month for a nice run that puts the Tide into the NCAA Tournament conversation. Only the season opening loss came outside the nation’s top 100 and the Tide have four wins away from home this season. Alabama defeated Auburn and lost close games with Florida and Kentucky in matchups vs. top SEC contenders.

An Alabama offense that pushes the pace will go up against a LSU team that ranks 11th in the SEC in defensive efficiency despite the perfect record while Alabama is actually second in the conference. No team has been better in the SEC against 2-point shots while no SEC defense has been worse than LSU in defending the 3-point shot allowing over 27 percent. Alabama takes a great deal of 3-point shots and should have favorable looks in this matchup.

LSU’s ability to close out close games makes the Tigers a worthy favorite but given the slim recent margins vs. similar or lesser caliber teams the points are appealing in this rivalry that is usually much more consequential on the football field.

Nelly’s is on a 10-2 run since January 21 and we had a pair of underdogs that both won outright last night. We went 3-0 in Wednesday’s 2/3 offer last week and we hit 83% on top plays last season. Join us for a big play tonight or sign up for all picks through Feb. 29 for $199 with Nelly’s posting a winning record in 12 of the past 15 months of February including a 53-33 combined record the past two years.

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#796 Indiana -12.5 over Northwestern 6:00 PM CT

Indiana is just 1-2 in Big Ten play and is in a critical spot knowing this weekend’s game with Ohio State is a very difficult draw. The Hoosiers needed overtime to beat Nebraska in its only conference win and in the past six games has not won by more than six points with a 3-3 run erasing an 8-0 start to the season for Archie Miller. All eight of those wins came at home but all also came by double-digits including impressive results vs. Louisiana Tech and Florida State as this hefty spread is attainable for the Hoosiers in what remains a great home court. The Hoosiers are a great interior scoring team with a huge jump in the offensive numbers from last season even without Romeo Langford. This team has great size and depth that should test a shorthanded Northwestern squad Wednesday night. The Wildcats have had unimaginable injury luck so far and will again be shorthanded having now lost four straight games and six of the past eight. The Big Ten losses have come by 14, 5, and 9 but Sunday’s closer finish at Minnesota was misleading, trailing by 23 at one point before incredibly scoring 34 points in the final 10 minutes. Northwestern is a poor scoring team and isn’t likely to get to the line often in this matchup to take advantage of good foul shooting numbers for one of the only strong suits for the offense. Northwestern won only four Big Ten games last season but one of those games was vs. Indiana and this should be a game that has the attention of the Hoosiers, especially coming off an ugly loss on Saturday by 16 points.

Nelly’s is on a 16-7 run in college basketball and we expect a multi-game offer for Wednesday night – join us for that offer or sign up for rest of January for only $149 with a recently discounted monthly rate!


Big E is expecting a 15* Game of the Month in college hoops tonight as well for $15.94, having gone 2-0 on those selections this season while on a current 11-6 run overall in basketball.


Bobby Dalton has also had a red hot start in 2020 including a 10-1 record so far in conference play in college basketball!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#618 Rutgers +1.5 over Penn State 6:00 PM CT

Rutgers needs to be taken seriously in the Big Ten race. The Scarlet Knights are already 2-1 in league play with the only defeat in East Lansing while this team also has a non-conference win over Seton Hall. The overall schedule hasn’t been overly difficult but Rutgers won a Big Ten road game last week and is 10-0 at home this season with seven of those wins coming by double-digits. Losing Geo Baker to a thumb injury is a big blow for the long term hopes for the Knights but Rutgers won convincingly at Nebraska Friday and could still remain a competitive team against the middle tier teams in the conference. The interior scoring should remain strong and Steve Pikiell’s team has delivered nationally elite defensive numbers so far in his fourth season. Penn State has seven top 100 wins this season but only two would counts as high of quality as Rutgers and both of those games were in favorable close-to-home or home venues. Saturday’s three-point win in Philadelphia over Iowa featured great fortune as they trailed nearly the entire second half before watching the Hawkeyes falter at the line. Penn State only has one true road win all season and that game was nearly two months ago as this is a dangerous spot on the schedule for a team that has had several narrow wins on the season to boost the record. Penn State lost at home in this series last season while winning by only one in the road meeting and while both teams are clearly improved the Lions haven’t proven they can win Big Ten road games yet.

Nelly’s has turned in back-to-back college winners the past two days including an underdog that won by double-digits last night. We’ve hit over 60% this season and are on a 16-6 run in college basketball while plus nearly 100 stars the past three basketball regular seasons combined!

Bobby Dalton is on an 8-0 run with a perfect start in 2020 while 10-0 conference game picks so far this basketball season!

Big E is riding an 11-5 run in basketball Biggies and has 15* and 20* picks planned this week:

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Fiesta Bowl Preview

Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal – Dec. 28

Clemson and Ohio State meet in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl in a pairing of undefeated teams for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both teams are far from home in Glendale but both programs have College Football Playoff Championships in the five years of the existence of the playoff format and this is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the bowl season as dominant 13-0 programs face off.

Match-up: Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Venue: At State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 8:00 PM ET ESPN

Line: Clemson -2, Over/Under 63

Last Meeting: 12/31/2016 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinals Clemson (+1) 31, Ohio State 0    

Three seasons ago these teams met in this same stadium in the 2/3 matchup of College Football Playoffs. The spread was nearly even and Clemson delivered a blowout win 31-0 with a huge production edge of 470-215. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett had a pair of interceptions each but the Clemson running game had a clear edge while the Tigers were able to hit a few big plays in the air. Clemson would go on to beat Alabama in the championship game for the first of now two titles for Dabo Swinney.

Clemson also beat Ohio State in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl a year before the playoff format and Clemson enters this game on a 29-game winning streak, completing a perfect 15-0 championship season last year and this year again unblemished with only one close call back in late September in Chapel Hill with a one-point escape.

The Tigers didn’t look like a dominant team early in the season as coming off brilliant championship performance last season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled interceptions early in the season. The Tigers closed the season on a dominant run with Lawrence combining for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in the final five games of the season. 1,500-yard rusher Travis Etienne has often been overlooked despite an amazing 8.2 yards per carry average this season as the Tigers scored 605 points this season for more than 46 points per game.

Clemson is the #3 seed however having played through a light ACC schedule and high-quality wins are absent from the schedule with the best results coming over 7-5 Texas A&M, 9-4 Virginia, 8-4 Wake Forest, 7-5 Louisville, and 6-6 North Carolina. The Tigers did technically beat seven bowl teams when you add Charlotte and Boston College to the mix but behind Clemson it was a clear down year for the ACC. The Tigers beat two SEC teams but Texas A&M and South Carolina both had disappointing seasons and like many ACC teams, Clemson also played a FCS foe to pad the numbers.

Swinney is 9-5 S/U and 10-4 ATS in his bowl and playoff games but after starting 1-3 S/U and ATS the Tigers have been on a roll in the postseason under his watch with the only ATS loss in that span being the 2017-18 Sugar Bowl vs. the eventual national champion Alabama. Clemson has actually been an underdog in nine of the past 10 postseason games with the lone exception last season’s 30-3 win over undefeated Notre Dame in the semifinals.

In contrast to Swinney’s amazing resume, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be a head coach for the first time in a postseason game. Day filled in for Urban Meyer for three wins early last season and is now 16-0 as a head coach for the Buckeyes for an amazing start to his career. Day has only been with the program since 2017 as an assistant with past experience in the NFL as well as with Temple and Boston College. Despite his success, his first season will ultimately be judged on this game alone with the Buckeyes back into the playoffs after narrowly missing out as Big Ten champions the past two seasons.

Controversially Ohio State was flipped from the #1 seed in the playoff rankings to the #2 seed, passed up by LSU following the respective Big Ten and SEC championship wins. LSU was more impressive vs. a higher rated foe on championship Saturday but Ohio State’s overall resume bested LSU’s in many of the counts that the selection committee values.

On championship Saturday four teams that Ohio State defeated in the regular season were playing in championship games as the Buckeyes wound up with nine wins over bowl teams. Ohio State was penalized for a poor first half vs. Wisconsin in Indianapolis as well as not getting as much credit for beating a highly regarded Wisconsin team twice compared to if they defeated two distinct similarly highly rated teams. Ultimately Ohio State has five wins over teams rated higher in the playoff rankings than Clemson’s best win over #24 Virginia, including four wins vs. the top 14.

Day was not the only new piece for the Buckeyes, led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields left Georgia last season after not getting a great opportunity behind Jake Fromm. In his first season as a starting quarterback he delivered an incredible campaign finishing third in the Heisman voting with an amazing line of 40 touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. J.K. Dobbins eclipsed 1,800 yards rushing and along with star defensive end Chase Young, that trio comprised half of the top six in the Heisman voting. Ohio State outscored foes 633-163 on the season with dominant numbers, though the defense allowed 17 or more points in each of the final four games following seven straight games allowing 14 or fewer points.

Ohio State has not been an underdog in the postseason since winning the initial College Football Playoff championship game 42-20 vs. Oregon in January 2015. The Buckeyes have been the Rose Bowl champion the past two seasons and this is the first playoff trip since the ugly loss in Glendale vs. Clemson.

Ohio State has been an underdog six times since the start of the 2012 season going 6-0 S/U and ATS including winning 62-39 vs. Michigan last season in the only instance getting points since the 2014-15 national championship. Clemson has rarely been in the small favorite role under Swinney going 4-5 S/U and 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 or fewer points, though all but one of those games was a regular season contest.

Clemson wound up 10-3 ATS this season including 10-2 ATS in FBS games, going 7-0 ATS in FBS games since October started for an incredible run, as a lot of folks fared well supporting the Tigers even at inflated prices including a 30-point spread in the ACC Championship. Ohio State wound up 9-4 ATS this season but lost ATS in three of the final four games including missing the spread in big games vs. Penn State and in the Big Ten championship after an 8-0 ATS run September to early November, with the Buckeyes also faring extremely well in first half numbers.

The victor of this game will head to New Orleans for the national championship in what could be a very hostile environment depending on the Peach Bowl outcome but either team will be a serious threat for the title as this semifinal figures to live up to the billing and hype as one of the best playoff pairings in the history of the format.