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Early Mountain West Preview

Early Mountain West Preview:

With six bowl teams and three bowls wins the Mountain West is coming off a solid season although the league has failed to provide a New Year’s six representative since Boise State won the Fiesta Bowl in the first season of the College Football Playoff system four years ago.

Expectations are high for Boise State to be a team that could run the table to be in that conversation this season but this is a conference that has offered some surprises in recent years, including Fresno State’s rise to the West title last season after failing to win a FBS game the previous season. Here is an early summer look at the 12 Mountain West teams and the season ahead in 2018-19.

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MOUNTAIN OUTLOOK:

Boise State: Bryan Harsin is 42-12 at Boise State including posting an 11-3 record last season after defeating Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Harsin’s name certainly has come up in consideration for major conference openings and that isn’t likely to change with another double-digit win season expected. Boise State takes on a few difficult non-conference games and will face a difficult draw from the West though the toughest conference games will be home games. Brett Rypien returns as one of the top passers in Broncos history but last year’s team took a big step back on offense and was led by a sound defense that was very tough against the run. That defensive success should continue with 10 defensive starters back in 2018 as the Broncos are the clear favorite in the division with the potential to emerge in the national conversation if they can win at Oklahoma State in September.

Utah State: In what felt like a critical season for Matt Wells, Utah State rebounded with a steady season getting back to a bowl game and ultimately finishing 6-7 with an Arizona Bowl loss in overtime. The Aggies possess a veteran offensive line and sophomore quarterback Jordan Love showed some potential last season. The Aggies have an ideal scheduling draw in conference play missing the top contenders on the west side but they are one the road for the key Mountain division games which makes a rise to the top unlikely. Another bowl-eligible season looks possible with a pair of favorable non-conference tests and favoritism likely in all six home dates. Wells has seen his defense get worse each of the past two years and returning to the strong results from his first three seasons in Logan will determine whether or not the Aggies take a leap forward in 2018.

Wyoming: Despite having a NFL draft pick at quarterback Wyoming had terrible offensive production last season, averaging only 288 yards per game in conference play. The Cowboys were outstanding defensively allowing only 17.5 points per game on the season and that unit keyed a second straight bowl bid and the program’s first bowl win since 2009. This year’s team should again dominate defensively with stars at every level of the defense. The offense could actually improve as well with a more stable offensive line helping the running game back to the success the Cowboys had as division champions in 2016-17. Wyoming has a pair of power five non-conference games plus drawing last year’s West champion on the road as there are some hurdles ahead in trying to match or surpass the eight-win count from last season. Boise State and Utah State will both have to head to Laramie for a potential edge as Wyoming is a threat in the Mountain race.

Colorado State: Mike Bobo’s squad doesn’t return a great deal of experience for his fourth season in Fort Collins but a few notable transfers will put major conference talent in his offense. The Rams have made but lost bowl games every season under Bobo with three consecutive 7-6 campaigns. While expectations for a breakthrough are growing it will be a tough act to deliver in 2018. Colorado State does have a preferable draw of the West teams missing the top two threats but a very tough non-conference schedule with three power five dates will leave little margin for error in Mountain West play regarding bowl eligibility. Ultimately a Colorado State defense that surrendered 436 yards per game while going 5-3 in league games last season doesn’t look likely to be greatly improved.

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Air Force: After winning 10 games in 2016, that count was cut in half for Air Force last season, missing a bowl game for the first time since 2013. The Falcons lack proven depth on the offensive line which is always the key component of the option attack but top rusher and passer Arion Worthman returns. The pull from the West features three difficult games with two road tests vs. quality teams and the non-conference schedule is a bit tougher than expected with Army and Florida Atlantic coming off strong seasons. Air Force is 20-4 S/U at home the past four seasons and the Falcons will need to maintain an edge in Colorado Springs to have a successful season with most of the pivotal swing games coming at home.

New Mexico: A great rebuilding run for Bob Davie collapsed last season as the Lobos fell to 3-9. Davie wound up suspended for a month in the winter surrounding misconduct allegations as New Mexico isn’t well positioned for a great season. There is some returning experience and this team lost a couple of very tight games last season to fall from 9-4 to 3-9. The schedule in 2018 is daunting with perhaps the three best West teams on the path and four very difficult home games in conference play. The Lobos have a talented young quarterback and the top rusher from last season back but the defense could slide backwards after two respectable seasons with capable defensive numbers. Ultimately a lot is adding up for potential problems for New Mexico to have a successful season and it won’t be a shock if the program looks to go another direction at some point.

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WEST OUTLOOK:

San Diego State: The Aztecs went 2-0 vs. the Pac-12 last season with a pair of early season upsets but after a 6-0 start, a pair of home losses ended a two-year run on top of the MWC. San Diego State also missed in bowl action losing to Army but Rocky Long has guided this team to a 32-9 record the past three years combined. Christian Chapman is back at quarterback but replacing record setting running back Rashaad Penny could be a challenge. The defense also loses a few contributors but this year’s squad is a threat to get back to the MWC title game. An opening game at Stanford could determine whether or not San Diego State could have more at stake this season. The quartet of road games in league play is daunting as another runner-up finish in the West is realistic as well.

Fresno State: The Bulldogs delivered one of the most impressive turnarounds in college football history as veteran head coach Jeff Tedford turned in a 10-4 season at his Alma Mater after inheriting a team that went 1-11 the previous year. The Bulldogs improved dramatically on both sides of the ball and turned around a lot of close game fortune, winding up falling just short in the MWC Championship but winning the Hawai’i Bowl. Matching last season’s success will be difficult but much of last season’s roster is intact. The schedule is difficult outside of the conference with three perilous non-conference games plus having to play two of the top Mountain squads including making a trip to Boise. A lot went right for Fresno State last season and while the Bulldogs are still a threat in 2018 a slight slide back to the pack looks possible on the 2018 schedule.

UNLV: The Rebels have improved in win-count by one each season under Tony Sanchez and a continuation of that pattern would get the Rebels in a bowl game for the first time since 2013. The schedule ahead features two non-conference road games that will be difficult to win as at least a 4-4 league campaign looks necessary which is the mark the Rebels hit last season. UNLV faces two of the lesser Mountain foes in its path and has a pair of winnable road games in the division. Returning talent on both offense and defense should lead a solid squad with quality in the backfield and a defense with veteran linebackers. The numbers need to get better defensively with 5.4 yards per rush allowed last season while the offense only scored 29 points per game despite posting 427 yards per game as more efficiency will be needed to complete the rise for a breakthrough campaign.

Nevada: Jay Norvell had a disappointing first season at Nevada with the Wolf Pack dipping to 3-9 for the worst season for the program in more than a decade. Nevada allowed at least 30 points in all but three games as the defense has regressed in back-to-back seasons. The offense has capable numbers with Ty Gangi ultimately taking over and delivering a productive season but a program built on running the ball successfully needs more consistent results on the ground. Nevada has a fairly difficult MWC slate as the four home games will all be difficult and winning on the road has been a challenge with Nevada 0-6 in road games last season. The non-conference schedule also features two power five schools and a tough road game at Toledo as a season of improvement isn’t assured even with a low bar to reach and a decent group of returning players.

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San Jose State: Brent Brennan stepped into a tough situation but his first season in San Jose was a challenge with the Spartans outscored by 26 points per game on average with only a three-point win in the season finale a FBS victory for the team. Road games at Pac-12 powers will make September difficult and San Jose State isn’t likely to be competitive in four difficult road games in MWC play. The home dates offer some potential however and matching or topping last season’s win count is realistic even with the rebuilding still clearly a work in progress. Goals will need to be modest for the Spartans this season but several teams have been able to regroup quickly for a major turnaround in this conference in recent years.

 

Hawai’i: The Warriors were a surprise bowl team in 2016 but fell to just 3-9 last season as Nick Rolovich enters his third season with growing unrest. His squad has lost several contributors due to transfers as this will be a very inexperienced team. John Ursua will be the leader in the receiving corps but there isn’t a lot of depth behind him in a system that relies on multiple receiver sets and efficient quarterback play remains a question mark. Defense was the weaker side of the ball last season as well and the three wins came vs. UMass, FCS Western Carolina, and San Jose State last season as competing with the top MWC teams looks unlikely. There are winnable games on the schedule and the Warriors avoid Boise State from the Mountain side while drawing preferable matchups at home.

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#591 Air Force +9.5 over UNLV 1:00 PM CT

This game is on UNLV’s home court but the Rebels closed the regular season dropping five games in a row including back-to-back home games. Their last win came against Air Force with a tight 8-point victory on Valentine’s Day with the Falcons fighting back into the game after a bad start, climbing to within a point in the final minutes. Air Force only had two fewer MWC wins than UNLV and most losses were competitive this season.

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As a heavy underdog Air Force is appealing with a very slow pace of play that will disrupt the up-tempo Rebels. Air Force has a very high rate of creating turnovers on defense and while the offense isn’t a strong shooting team they Falcons get to the line often and hit over 74 percent. UNLV is a poor outside shooting team and a squad vulnerable to turnovers and both regular season meetings were very tight in this series.

The advantage of playing at home in the conference tournament is likely negated on day one with an 11:00 AM Las Vegas time start as a sparse crowd is likely on hand for the opening game of the tournament. Only one time in 18 MWC conference games did UNLV win by more than 10 points as this is an appealing price for the Falcons to hang around.

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Nelly’s is 9-2 in March, now 40-14 since February 1 – don’t miss our update for Wednesday evening. Bobby Dalton is hot in March as well with a 13-2 record the past five days – get a daytime 10* as part of a Trips-2-Win 2/3 today. Maximum Sports is on a 25-10 run and has a 2/3 offer for Wednesday with an afternoon selection included. Big E has posted a Biggie play for tournament action tonight as well.

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#781 Air Force +13.5 over UNLV 9:00 PM CT

UNLV is 18-7 on the season for a year of great improvement after winning just 11 games last season. After going 11-2 in a mostly light non-conference campaign the Rebels are just 7-5 in Mountain West play. One of those wins came in overtime and six of those wins came by 10 or fewer points with only Saturday 85-70 win hosting Wyoming coming by more than tonight’s spread.

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UNLV won by just five at Air Force a month ago despite shooting over 60 percent as the Falcons dominated the offensive glass and turnover counts. UNLV is an efficient scoring team in the paint but the numbers have headed downward in league play as the schedule has stiffened. UNLV is a marginal free throw shooting team and the worst 3-point shooting team in the Mountain West as the marginal 3-point defense for the Falcons isn’t likely to be a factor tonight.

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Air Force will slow this game down the and the Falcons are coming off back-to-back wins over Colorado State and New Mexico as they have been able to win high scoring results as well. Only two of the last 11 games for Air Force have ended in losses by more than this spread as in contrast to UNLV this is a veteran team with great depth. The Rebels also have a huge game with San Diego State up next this weekend and Air Force has covered in the past five meetings in this series and UNLV is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight lined home games.

Nelly’s is 15-4-1 in 20 February basketball picks – don’t miss a 2/3 offer tonight or sign up for the rest of February at a recently reduced price of just $99. Maximum Sports has a guaranteed 6-Pack offer in college basketball tonight. Bobby Dalton has a Trips-2-Win 2/3 offer having won in 19 of his last 29 updates while winning seven 10* picks in a row. Big E has his next 20* Conference Game of the Year tonight in the Mountain West for just $20.94. Get the next week of picks with the B.E.S.T. for $79.94 or play for 30 days for $159.94.

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MWC Championship Notes

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos

Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho

Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 7:45 PM ET, ESPN

Line: Boise State -9, Over/Under 49

Last Meeting: November 25, 2017 at Fresno State (+6½) 28-17

Boise State won eight WAC titles from 2002 to 2010 but the program has won the Mountain West championship just twice and just once since the championship game format started. That title came by virtue of beating Fresno State in 2014 in Boise 28-14, though falling well short of an over three-touchdown spread. The Broncos have won 10 or more games in 14 of the last 18 seasons and they will hit that mark with a win this weekend (or with a bowl win).

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The Broncos have several notable upsets vs. power five schools in recent years but they missed in both opportunities in September. This year’s team drew one of the tougher schedules in the conference having to play San Diego State and Colorado State on the road with those teams generally considered the preseason division favorites. Quarterback Brett Rypien didn’t match the numbers he posted last season and wound up splitting a lot of time with Montell Cozart as the Broncos had some inconsistency on offense but were one of the top defensive teams in the conference.

Jeff Tedford had success in 11 seasons at California before he was let go after the 2012 season. He coached in the NFL in 2014 and the CFL in 2015 before returning to college football as an assistant at Washington last season. This season has led one of the great turnarounds in college football with the Bulldogs going from 1-11 to 9-3 and playing for a conference championship at his Alma Mater. Always known as a quarterback developer he has turned Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion to one of the top players in the conference. The Fresno State defense is also 12th nationally in scoring defense allowing just 17.3 points per game for a dramatic improvement from last season.

2017 Meeting: These teams played last week in Fresno knowing that they would play again in this championship game this week. Fresno State prevailed 28-17 to pull away after Boise State closed to within two points in the fourth quarter. There were no turnovers and the yardage was nearly even with third down success the biggest difference in the box score.

Series History: Boise State is 13-4 S/U in this series since 1996 with a 12-4 ATS record however Fresno State has covered in the past three meetings. Prior to last week’s 28-17 win for Fresno State at home these teams last met in the MWC Championship in 2014 with Boise State winning 28-14 but falling short of a -23 spread at home. None of the S/U wins for Fresno State in this series have come in Boise.

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#314 New Mexico +8 over Colorado State 9:15 PM CT

The Lobos were embarrassed at Fresno State last week and the quarterback situation remains jumbled with freshman Tevaka Tuioti taking most of the snaps in the shutout loss. New Mexico has had success this season behind three different quarterbacks and ultimately that makes the defensive prep work more difficult for Colorado State.

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At 3-3 two of the toughest league games are ahead the next two weeks for a critical stretch for Bob Davie’s team, looking to recapture last season’s success. Colorado State is the lone 3-0 MWC team but there is company in the division race with Wyoming and Boise State getting big road wins last week. The Rams won 49-31 at home last season in this matchup and the offensive production has been strong behind Nick Stevens as one of the top passers in the country.

The defense displayed red flags last week however with 42 points allowed against a struggling Nevada team. The Rams did play Alabama this season but the rest of the schedule has been very weak and this will be a third road game in four weeks, on a short week as well with the Friday night contest in Albuquerque.

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New Mexico rushed for 285 yards in last season’s loss in this matchup and the Lobos are gaining 5.4 yards per carry this season as a potential home underdog with a rushing edge. The Rams are on a 10-16 ATS run as a road favorite and this is the largest road favorite spread for Colorado State in this series since 1999 even through some very lean years for the Lobos. The big opening win over Oregon State is no longer relevant while New Mexico has played a quality schedule with several teams that have surpassed expectations already.

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Big plays lined up Saturday – Maximum’s first 10* Top Play is posted (5-2 last Saturday), Big E has his next 20* in the MAC (5-2 in 20* & higher picks this season), Point Train has his first 9-unit play (6-3 top play run), plus Bobby Dalton has an early release in the ACC Saturday.

Nelly’s has gone 9-3-1 in our 2/3 offers this season with the individual picks 26-12-1! We also have our first NFL Top Play this week with a 14-4 start in the NFL through Week 6 and a 12-4 overall record in October!

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Free Saturday NCAA Pick

#167 UNLV +8.5 over Air Force 1:00 PM CT

UNLV gave a spirited effort last week hosting San Diego State in what was a competitive game into the second half. 1-4 Air Force rallied to make things interesting late at Navy but can no longer match last season’s success. These are two of the more productive rushing teams in the nation and an Air Force defense surrendering 6.1 yards per rush will be difficult to support as a substantial favorite following losing narrowly in one of the biggest games of the season.

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The Rebels might be worth a look for another sound effort even though most of the Air Force losses have been in close games against quality teams with three of four on the road. Air Force has allowed over 40 points per game since a 62-0 FCS win over VMI to start the season and the emotional toll of last week’s wild finish could be a factor.

Air Force is on a 13-20 ATS run as a home favorite while UNLV is 11-3 ATS the past 14 instances in the road underdog role. Lopsided losses to top 20 teams skew the numbers for the Rebels and Lexington Thomas should be the top big play threat on the field incredibly gaining 7.6 yards per attempts this season with nine touchdowns. A back and forth battle on the ground looks likely in a favorable spot for the underdog.

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Nelly’s Phone Service went 7-0 last weekend – we are 8-2-1 in our 2/3 offers with the picks 22-10-1! Don’t miss 2/3 offers Saturday & Sunday this week – just $25 each! Also don’t miss the Big E’s Mountain West 20* Game of the Year!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#195 Air Force -2.5 over New Mexico 6:00 PM CT

In jeopardy of a potential four-game slide with this tough matchup ahead, New Mexico delivered a narrow road upset last week at Tulsa. The Lobos have received decent play from their backup quarterback Coltin Gerhart but he has had turnovers and provides much less potential in the passing game.

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New Mexico has had great success in this series with five ATS wins in a row and S/U wins each of the last two seasons as a double-digit underdog. Air Force still doesn’t have a FBS win this season but the Falcons have competed well against elite defensive teams the past two games hanging tough at Michigan and losing a tight game with San Diego State last week.

Air Force has great special teams play and catching the Lobos off a huge win should help the Falcons get back on track in this series as the Falcons look to recover from a disappointing defeat. Despite a big disparity in the quality of the defenses faced the rushing numbers are very similar and New Mexico’s defense has fared well against the pass this season but that won’t come into play in this matchup.

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This will also be the smallest favorite spread for Air Force in this series the past three years with the line over a touchdown each of the past three seasons.

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Thursday Night College Football

Thursday Night College Football – New Mexico at Boise State

The Mountain West has the Thursday Night spotlight this week in a matchup of two of the three teams that finished tied on top of the Mountain division last season. New Mexico and Boise State both enter Thursday night coming off disappointing losses last Saturday with this being a critical game to keep the season’s goals on track.

Match-up: New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos

Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho

Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 14, 7:00 PM ET ESPN

Line: Boise State -15, Over/Under 58½

Last Meeting: 2016, at New Mexico, Boise State (-18) 49, New Mexico 21

Productive veteran quarterbacks entered the 2017 season leading Boise State and New Mexico with both teams hoping to build on successful 2016-17 seasons though with two of the least experienced teams in the conference. Wyoming went to the MWC title game last season but Boise State and New Mexico finished with respectable 10 and 9 win seasons going 6-2 in league play for a three-way tie on top of the division. After opening week wins both teams lost last week in tight games and there are questions at the quarterback position this week on both sides.

2016 Mountain West 1st team quarterback Brett Rypien played sparingly in last week’s loss to Washington State. Commentators speculated he was benched but later it was announced he suffered an undisclosed injury after taking a sack. Senior backup Montell Cozart provided a spark for the Broncos with a rushing and passing presence and the Broncos would take a 31-10 lead early in the fourth quarter vs. the nationally ranked Cougars. The lead melted away with a Cozart interception returned for a touchdown with about six minutes to go being a critical play. Rypien’s status will likely be unclear until game day and it could change the Broncos offensive look and game plan.

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While Rypien will be the starter if healthy, the situation for New Mexico under center might be less firm. Senior Lamar Jordan started four games last season and rushed for over 800 yards while passing for nearly 700 yards for the Lobos. With the team falling behind last week against New Mexico State freshman Tevaka Tuioti was given a chance and he led the Lobos to 23 fourth quarter points with the team failing on a two-point conversion that would have tied the game late in a 30-28 home loss to rival New Mexico State. Bob Davie has announced that Jordan will continue to start but the temptation to give Tuioti another opportunity could be there if there are more struggles with difficult games ahead the next three weeks.

New Mexico rushed for 350 yards per game last season on 6.6 yards per carry but this season the numbers are down significantly through two weeks despite what should have been two of the easier games on the schedule, averaging 217 yards on 5.6 yards per carry vs. FCS Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. With road games still remaining after this game at Tulsa, at Wyoming, at Texas A&M, and at San Diego State it looks very unlikely that the Lobos will be able to improve in wins for a fourth straight season and the opportunity to get to a third straight bowl game will be in the balance the next few weeks.

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In eight of the last 10 seasons Boise State has won at least 10 games and the program has often been in the conversation about being a top team outside of the power 5 conferences. The Broncos have been surpassed by San Diego State as the Mountain West leaders the past two years however and the opportunity for a New Year’s Day bowl game looks slim with difficult games remaining with Virginia, at BYU, at San Diego State, and at Colorado State. Bryan Harsin figures to be mentioned as a candidate for potential openings with a strong track record in three seasons in Boise State as well as a strong season at Arkansas State in 2013 but the program is not in as strong of a position as it was a few years ago.

While it didn’t matter last season New Mexico figures to have a strong rushing edge in this matchup again. Even with Cozart adding over 100 yards on the ground from the quarterback position the Broncos have gained just 3.5 yards per rush this season. An offensive line with three new starters appears likely to have a second straight disappointing season as the rushing averages for the Broncos have dropped each of the last two years. Senior Cedrick Wilson is on pace to be one of the top receivers in the conference with 13 catches and 212 yards this season as a big play threat for the Broncos.

Ultimately this game could come down to which team can handle the emotions of a difficult defeat on a short week. The Broncos always are a threat for an undefeated season and taking an early September loss could be a challenge though the Broncos have actually lost one of their first two games in now five of the last six seasons. For a New Mexico squad with a lot of key players missing from the best team the program has had in a nearly decade, losing twice in a row to a rival will sting. This could be a critical juncture in the season as the Lobos figure to be dogged in each of the next three games as a 1-4 start might become a reality for a program that has made great positive strides the last two years.

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Last Season: A 4-0 nationally ranked Broncos squad that many pegged for a possible undefeated season went to Albuquerque on an early October Friday night and won with ease. After trading scores in the first quarter the Broncos scored five consecutive touchdowns to take a 42-7 halftime lead. New Mexico added two scores in the final eight minutes to make the final score a bit more respectable and make for a bit of a deceptive box score with the Broncos only posting a 456-421 yardage edge, but with about half of that total for the Lobos coming on their final three possessions with the game out of reach. Brett Rypien had a huge game with nearly 400 yards passing and five touchdowns as the Broncos won and covered easily despite a 382-65 rushing edge for New Mexico with the only turnover of the game not leading to any points on a Hail Mary interception just before halftime.

Historical Trends: These teams have met eight times since 1999 and in each of the last six seasons with Boise State winning seven of eight meetings but going just 3-5 ATS. The last game in Boise featured a monumental upset for the Lobos, winning 31-24 as a +30½-point underdog and the Lobos had covered in every Mountain West meeting going back to 2011 until last season. Boise State owns a 137-27 S/U mark at home since 1999 but a once amazing ATS record has deteriorated in recent years with the Broncos 13-29-1 ATS at home since 2010, including entering this game on a 0-9-1 ATS run the past 10 home games. Since 2011 Boise State is on a 7-24-1 ATS run as a double-digit home favorite despite only losing S/U in four of those games. Since Bob Davie took over 2012 New Mexico is 28-37 S/U and 31-31-2 ATS heading into this game. In that span the Lobos are 16-11-2 ATS on the road and 21-18-2 ATS as an underdog, including 14-8-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.