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Free MLB Pick Monday

#904 Miami Marlins (Alcantara) +125 over St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) 6:10 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has dropped his ERA down to 3.80 on the season and while his 5.14 xFIP is alarming as are his very low strikeout rate and high walk rates, he has been getting the job done of late. His ERA is just 3.19 over his last eight starts and he has allowed only five earned runs over his past 27 innings. St. Louis prefers to face right-handed pitching but over the past two weeks the Cardinals have the worst OPS in all of MLB. In the past seven games the Cardinals have scored a total of 12 runs and having to play Sunday night won’t be helpful for the morale or fatigue of the squad facing long travel to Miami to start this series Monday night. Michael Wacha is still just 27 but his numbers have been challenging this season with a 6.30 ERA this season. With a 5.06 xFIP Wacha should have better numbers but a 5.8 BB/9 isn’t a path to success. Wacha hasn’t had a quality start since April 17 and his ERA is 7.99 since May started spanning four starts and his last two relief outings. The Marlins are 13-9 the past 22 games even with a current four-game slide and with a .756 team OPS the past two weeks the Marlins have been far more productive than the Cardinals who have posted a .641 team OPS in that span. Both bullpens have struggled of late but the Marlins have shown a slight improvement in the relief numbers in recent weeks and have received at least five innings from its starter in nine of the past 10 games to manage the workload while the Cardinals have had a starter clear five innings once in the past five games. St. Louis is just 11-19 on the road this season as this type of favoritism is hard to justify with Wacha’s struggles and with the Cardinals ice cold at the plate of late.

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Nelly’s Baseball has turned in four consecutive profitable seasons – we’ve got work to do this summer with a slow start but June was one of our best months last season and we have been profitable over the past four weeks after a tough start to the season. Now is a great time to get on board to maximize your potential profits with a proven winner on the diamond and with a service that is plus nearly 100* the past two calendar years overall. Join Nelly’s for the rest of June Baseball for just $99!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 8’ Colorado Rockies (Gray) at Los Angeles Angels (Despaigne) 9:05 PM CT

Odrisamer Despaigne has a 6.35 ERA but a 3.47 FIP this season mainly as a reliever with the Marlins before joining the rotation for the Angels in August. He faced a pair of tough road venues in those outings and this could be his best opportunity for a lengthy outing all season. Despaigne has pitched in 100 games at the big league level with average results and he’ll face a Rockies team with just a .727 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching and a .723 team mark overall the past 25 games.

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Colorado might not need many runs Monday with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray still owns an elevated ERA at 4.67 but his xFIP is 3.12 this season for one of the better marks in the NL. Since a minor league stint Gray has returned from the All Star break with great numbers posting a 2.83 ERA in six starts and yet to take a loss in that span. He has relied less on the strikeout and has found much better results while going deeper into games.

The Angels have been ice cold at the plate with a .578 team OPS in the past five games, scoring a combined 12 runs in those five games and over the past two weeks the team OPS is only up to .694. The ‘under’ has had a 34-29-3 mark in Anaheim this season and both bullpens are capable. Just as Mike Trout has returned Justin Upton is out of the lineup for the Angels with any long shot hopes up in flames this week with six consecutive defeats for Los Angeles. Expect tired teams that both endured disappointing results Sunday and a pair of capable right-handed options to succeed on the mound.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#951 St. Louis Cardinals (Weaver) -145 over Miami Marlins (Chen) 6:10 PM CT

With a managerial change and trading or releasing a few prominent players the Cardinals appeared to be content to play for next season but St. Louis is only four games out of the second wild card spot in the National League. Luke Weaver is 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA to fail to meet high expectations that grew after great numbers in 10 starts last season. Weaver has a much lower FIP than his ERA however he possesses steady strikeout and walk counts. Since a brutal start hosting the Braves in late June Weaver has put together a good recent run of outings with a 3.38 ERA in his last five starts. Weaver has pitched better in his road starts and Miami has some of the worst offensive numbers in baseball.

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After a nice mid-summer stretch the Marlins are back in the NL East basement with losses in six straight games and 10 of the past 13. Miami has a .619 team OPS in the past 20 games, averaging just over 3.6 runs per game. The Cardinals meanwhile have a solid .758 team OPS the past 23 games, averaging more than 4.8 runs per contest. St. Louis has also been a dramatically superior hitting team vs. left-handed pitching this season. Wei-Yin Chen has been erratic in 17 starts this season but he ultimately owns a 5.86 ERA with a low strikeout rate and an above average walk rate. He had a marginal four-inning start against the Cardinals earlier this season and while his home numbers are good, a win in his most recent home start was his first since April in Miami.

The Marlins have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and over the past 10 games St. Louis has a 1.58 ERA for relievers compared to a 7.24 bullpen ERA for the Marlins. In that span St. Louis is batting .354 vs. left-handed pitching as the road favorite price looks worth the risk fading the slumping Marlins tonight.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#903 Arizona Diamondbacks (Miller) -125 over Miami Marlins (Straily) 6:10 PM CT

Dan Straily has a 4.89 ERA in six starts for capable results but a 6.35 FIP is lurking over those numbers. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is below 2:1 with a 4.9 BB/9 that is among the highest of NL starters. Straily hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any of his starts but he just hasn’t had the opportunity, averaging just four and two thirds innings per outing and completing six innings just twice.

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Miami has the worst record in the NL at 31-47 and they have been outscored by 113 runs this season. Miami has won eight of the last 13 games for better recent returns but they have also faced mostly losing teams since early June and the offensive numbers were boosted playing the past three games in Colorado. Miami was swept in Arizona less than a month ago, outscored 21-4 in that series and Miami is only 14-21 at home this season.

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Shelby Miller is a wild card on the mound coming off surgery for his first MLB start since April 2017. Miller posted huge strikeout numbers in his minor league tune-ups and he has the potential to get back to his solid from from a few years ago when he was an above average NL starter. Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in baseball and also features one of the NL’s top bullpens to help his cause as well.

After a rough month of May that opened the door for the Dodgers to climb back in the NL West race, Arizona has turned in a huge run in June going 16-6 and scoring 6.1 runs per game. This is a third stop on a road trip for the Diamondbacks but the team has momentum with four runs in a row and Miller is worth the risk at a small favorite price against one of baseball’s worst hitting teams.  

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Bobby Dalton is on a 12-6 run in MLB 10* Best Bets – get his next Best Bet for Monday night pay after you win! Dalton is on a 50-33 historical run in interleague picks as well. Nelly’s baseball is on a roll with a 20-9 record since late May, posting back-to-back 5-2 weeks, posting profits in 7 out of 11 weeks this season, don’t miss Monday’s MLB selection to start another big week.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#958 Colorado Rockies (Anderson) +110 over New York Mets (deGrom) 7:40 PM CT

Tyler Anderson has taken just one loss in 14 starts this season posting very respectable numbers overall despite pitching his home games in an offense-friendly park. Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher with only average strikeout potential but he has been able to weather the storm in most outings with a consistent track record this season featuring 10 outings with three or fewer earned runs allowed.

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Jacob deGrom is one of the game’s best pitchers with an incredible 1.55 ERA in over 87 innings of work. He has just four wins however and has been fortunate with only 13 percent of his base runners scoring. He has only pitched at Coor’s Field once posting a 4.26 ERA in just over six innings of work for a no decision and New York’s bullpen has been a mess with a season ERA of 4.54.

A good start from deGrom might not matter however as the Mets are batting .175 in the past 10 games while averaging 2.0 runs per game over the past 13 contests. This is a third stop with long travel on the current road trip and while Colorado is shockingly just 11-19 at home this season they are 3-0 vs. the Mets this season and the offense has produced in the past two weeks with more than five runs per game scored on average. More late-inning heroics from the Mets is possible with a shaky Rockies bullpen but this is an attractive price to fade a team that is 13-29 since May started.

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Bobby Dalton has turned in three straight profitable MLB weeks including going 10-4, +35.0* the past seven days. Nelly’s missed our Sunday pick but we are 15-7 overall the past three weeks in MLB picks!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#901 Pittsburgh Pirates (Taillon) +105 over Washington Nationals (Roark) 6:05 PM CT

Jameson Taillon has some of the best numbers in baseball through three starts as the Pirates had a hot start out of the gate. After allowing just nine hits and two runs in more than 20 innings to start the season a correction has come swiftly with Taillon allowing 12 runs in his past two starts. Taillon will fall somewhere in the middle of those stretches by season’s end and his FIP is still substantially lower than his ERA. His BABIP has been low but his strand rate has also been extraordinarily low with 32 percent of his base runners scoring. His strikeout-to-walk ratio remains impressive and Taillon is still a candidate to put together an All Star caliber season, now catching underdog pricing.

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Washington knocked off Arizona Sunday but they caught a huge break with tough left-hander Robbie Ray leaving in the second inning due to injury. The Nationals have still been a disappointing team at 12-16 and Washington is incredibly just 4-9 in home games. Pittsburgh is 17-11 on the season and +21 in scoring differential as they continue to look like a team that plans to hang around in the playoff race while going 14-9 vs. right-handed starters.

After a tough-luck 2017 campaign Tanner Roark is a bounce-back candidate in the Washington rotation this season but so far he has overachieved despite picking up only one win. He has been far from dominant with at least two runs allowed in each of his last four starts and his FIP is nearly a full run higher than his respectable 3.77 ERA. Roark has benefitted from a .192 BABIP in 31 innings which is .114 lower than his career mark. Pittsburgh scored nine runs in six innings against Roark last season as this could be again a favorable matchup for the Pirates.

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Nelly’s has won three of our last four on the diamond and seven of our last nine in the NBA – get side plays for $15 each Monday night to close down April! Bobby Dalton is on a 24-12 Eastern Conference NBA run – don’t miss a Side & Total offer for Monday night’s Game 1 action!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#910 Arizona Diamondbacks (Walker) +105 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Ryu) 8:40 PM CT

Arizona finished 25-17 against left-handed starters last season and the Diamondbacks will be up for the first meeting with the Dodgers this season, finishing 11 games behind Los Angeles in NL West standings last season. The Dodgers are just 2-2 on the young season after splitting four games with the Giants at home and the road opener will be a challenging matchup with Arizona getting an off day Sunday while the Dodgers had a late night contest.

Hyun-Jin Ryu made just 24 starts last season with up-and-down results. He had a 3.77 ERA but was just 5-9 despite pitching for the team with the best record in baseball. Ryu had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA and he had worse numbers on the road while allowing six runs in four innings at Arizona.

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Taijuan Walker was a steady pitcher for Arizona last season with good strikeout numbers and only six runs allowed in three starts vs. the Dodgers spanning nearly 17 innings of work. The Dodgers had five left-handers in the lineup last night against a right-handed starter and Walker held left-handed batters to just a .225 batting average last season.

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Bobby Dalton is 16-6 in the NCAA Tournament including going 2-0 in the Final Four Saturday. Dalton has a side & total package with a 10* guaranteed ($24.99) for Monday’s Championship. Dalton is also 2-0 in baseball this season – get tonight’s pick on the diamond ($12).

Nelly’s is 10-5 in the NCAA Tournament and 62-33 in basketball picks since February 1 as we wrap up a huge season tonight. We’ve also hit nearly 65% in the NBA on the season – join Nelly’s for all picks through the NBA Finals for just $179.

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Free NBA Pick Monday

#714 Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 over Portland Trail Blazers 9:35 PM CT

Portland has taken advantage of a volatile Western Conference playoff picture with six straight wins to jump up to the #3 seed behind the Rockets and Warriors. Portland is incredibly only 2.5 games ahead of the Clippers who are the last season out of the field for the moment as there is no time to soak in the winning streak that has featured wins over the Warriors, Jazz, Timberwolves, and Thunder. Four of the six wins on the streak came at home and Portland is just 17-15 in road games this season while only +1.8 in average scoring differential on the season.

It will be too little too late for the Lakers but this team has shown a lot of promise with a young roster, even going through a major shake-up at the trade deadline. Since January 7 the Lakers are quietly 17-7 S/U with nine consecutive Staples Center victories. The Lakers have lost twice to Portland this season but both results came by only three points. Los Angeles has just -1.6 average scoring differential on the season as the gap between these teams isn’t all that significant statistically.

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The Lakers are 20-13 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 10-5 ATS at home in those matchup, rising to the occasion with the brightest lights as this will be a national TV NBA Network game. Los Angeles has scored 121 points per game in the last five contests as this has become an elite offensive squad that will push the pace against the Blazers. Riding a long losing streak in this series the Lakers will be up for this opportunity.

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Join Bobby Dalton for a 10* Best Bet Monday night in conference tournament action. Dalton is 10-1 the past three days for a huge March Madness start building on a 97-64 run in conference tournament Best Bets the past 14 years. Nelly’s is 7-2 in March after winning our College GOY over the weekend. The start to March Madness follows a 31-12-1 February and we are 37 games above .500 with a 63.5% run the past two months since December 3. Don’t miss Monday’s Tournament Pick for $15. Big E won a pair of 20* picks Saturday & Sunday and will have Biggies all week for just $9.94. Maximum is also getting hot at the right time with a 24-8 run – score Monday’s WCC pick for only $10.

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Free NBA Pick Monday

#706 Boston Celtics -12 over Memphis Grizzlies 6:35 PM CT

Memphis has had a miserable season now 18-40 despite only being -4.4 in average scoring differential. The Grizzlies lost badly in both games out of the break and have now dropped nine in a row. Memphis has played mostly top competition on the recent run but many games have featured lopsided results.

Laying a big number with Boston feels like a risk but the past two wins have come by 12 and nine on the road for the Celtics to wipe away a slide before the All Star break. The Celtics have an average scoring differential of only +3.7 on the season but they are 21-11 at home and this has looked like a focused group since the break knowing that the competition in the East has stiffened since the trade deadline.

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A Grizzlies team in tank mode has underperformed of late relative to the more respectable season numbers with the last seven losses coming by 26, 23, 7, 18, 4, 26, and 15. This is the NBA’s worst scoring team and one of the worst rebounding teams and Boston has excelled in lower scoring games this season. Look for a rout from the Celtics on Monday despite the inflated price.

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Nelly’s is 9-1 the past seven days as an epic month of February continues, with Nelly’s is 30-9-1 in February, we expect a NBA pick for Monday for just $15 – now 30-14 on the NBA season. Maximum Sports went 6-1 on Saturday and has released Monday night picks! Bobby Dalton is 7-2 the past four days and has a TV Total for Monday for only $12!

 

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Free NCAA Pick Monday

#704 Notre Dame -4.5 over Miami, FL 6:00 PM CT

Miami appears to be a NCAA Tournament team right now but the Hurricanes have dropped three in a row to put that prospect in question, heading into a critical road game. Miami is 18-8 overall and 7-7 in ACC play but the profile isn’t obviously stronger than Notre Dame’s despite the Irish clearly being on the outside of the March Madness picture right now. While Notre Dame has three top 100 wins outside of ACC play Miami has just one and that is a win vs. mid-major Middle Tennessee State.

Miami has seven ACC wins compared to six for Notre Dame but two of those wins came against lowly Pittsburgh, a team Notre Dame is yet to play. Injuries were a big factor in Notre Dame losing seven games in a row in the middle of the ACC season but Matt Farrell missed four of those losses while the Irish also had to adjust to losing Bonzie Colson and D.J. Harvey to injury. Notre Dame has won the past two home games and is 4-3 at home in ACC play. The losses came by one against North Carolina, in double-OT vs. Louisville and by five against Virginia Tech, all respectable defeats against teams that rate stronger than Miami and Farrell missed two of those games. Notre Dame should be favored in the next three games as the Irish has a chance to make a late case for the tournament and they will have a crack at a major upset in the finale playing at Virginia ahead of the ACC Tournament as this team hasn’t given up hope yet.

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Miami has played one of the weaker ACC schedule and is the much lesser offensive team in this matchup while the defensive numbers are closer than one would expect. Miami is one of the worst 3-point shooting and free throw shooting teams in the ACC as they won’t be in position to take advantage of the defensive liabilities for the Irish. Every Miami loss has been a game decided by 10 or fewer points as the Hurricanes are often an appealing underdog but Notre Dame is in position to peak late in the season and this is a favorable opportunity for a team with a much higher ceiling than the season numbers suggest.

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Nelly’s was just 2-2 over the weekend but it has been an incredible February for our basketball service with three straight winning weeks. Our overall record since February 1 is 21-7-1 with an 18-5 record in college basketball. Join us for the rest of the month for just $99 or through March Madness (April 2) for just $249. We hit 65% last season in the NCAA Tournament picking up 15.9* in college hoops from February 23 through a winning pick in the NCAA Tournament Championship.

Big E has won 8 of his last 12 and has gone 47-28/+1630 over the last seven weeks, a stretch that now includes NINE 20* WINNERS! His 25* College GOY is coming up next weekend plus two additional 20* picks go this week – get his GOY Weekly Package for $99.94 or play for the entire rest of the college basketball season for $249.94.

Bobby Dalton won a 15* Best Bet on Saturday and he has won 8 of his last 10 Best Bet picks 10* and higher. Join the Big Dog for his Conference Tournament package for just $149 with Dalton 94-63 in Conference Tournament picks the last 14 years (including 60% last season). A big 15* Best Bet is expected this Thursday as well from Bobby Dalton!

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