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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#924 Oakland Athletics (Fiers) -115 over New York Yankees (Happ) 9:07 PM CT

Mike Fiers is 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 19 starts since May 1 as he has been the most reliable starter for the Athletics. He had a tough outing last week vs. Houston, the first time in that span of starts in which he had allowed more than three runs. Fiers has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of the past 12 starts and he has terrific home splits in 84 innings at home with a 2.89 ERA. Adding J.A. Happ was a great benefit last season for the Yankees but this year the left-hander has struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Happ has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts and the results have been getting worse with a 6.85 ERA in his last nine starts. Oakland is currently the odd team out in the AL Playoff picture despite a 72-53 record but the Athletics are 21-10 vs. left-handed starters this season and 41-22 at the Coliseum. New York has great potential vs. right-handers but the power numbers are likely to slip in this spacious ballpark. New York’s offense has been held in check in the last week and this is a dangerous series ahead of a highly anticipated interleague series at Dodger Stadium this coming weekend. Oakland’s offense has cooled in the last month but this team is 14-6 in the past 20 games including a big series win over Houston and a 10-3 mark the past 13 home dates.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#961/962 ‘UNDER 10.5’ Boston Red Sox (Rodriguez) at Cleveland Indians (Plesac) 6:10 PM CT

In his last 14 starts Eduardo Rodriguez is 9-2 with a 3.36 ERA, posting good strikeout numbers and pitching nearly as well on the road. Zach Plesac doesn’t have the strikeout potential of his rotation mates but he has been effective with a 3.13 ERA on the season. He pitched well against Boston in his MLB debut and while he has benefitted from weak opposition in many of his starts he has provided a capable path to the great Cleveland bullpen. Yesterday Cleveland won 7-3 but they were inches away from losing 4-3 and the game was 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. The Indians are on a 43-18 run since the start of June but few of those results came vs. quality teams with the Indians 21-25 vs. above .500 squads on the season. Cleveland owns a great record vs. left-handed starters but only a .736 team OPS vs. southpaws as they have benefitted from several Detroit and Kansas City left-handers to boost that win count, ultimately going 22-7 vs. those teams this season. Rodriguez is an above average starter and the Boston bullpen has steadied with a 3.60 ERA the past 10 games. Cleveland home games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season with a sharp lean to the ‘under’ in all Indians games and the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Cleveland home games with a total of 10.5 or higher.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#954 Miami Marlins (Smith) + over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly) 6:10 PM CT

There is a lot to like about Caleb Smith’s season line for the Marlins as the former Yankees draft pick has a 3.30 ERA in 90 innings. His 11.0 K/9 would be one of the top marks in the NL if he qualified and having a winning record pitching for the NL’s worst team is no small feat. Take away a disastrous start to the season the Marlins have been fairly competitive however, going 30-32 since mid-May and they enter this series finale having won four of the past five games, beating Arizona both Friday and Sunday. A big part of the turnaround has been consistent starting pitching with longer outings boosting the bullpen as the offense remains limited. Arizona prefers to face left-handers but facing a lefty of Smith’s caliber isn’t a routine assignment. At exactly .500 the Diamondbacks will be worth monitoring as the trade deadline approaches as this team was a buyer last season before a September crash and again going all-in for a shot a wild card game in a crowded NL picture isn’t likely. Arizona is 15-19 since mid-June and the lineup has been ice cold hitting .209 the past five games with a .633 OPS. 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has provided average results this season and he has struggled on the road with a 4.68 ERA. Kelly has zero wins in his past seven starts and can be vulnerable to the home run. Arizona has a 5.19 ERA in the bullpen the past 10 games as well as the Diamondbacks look like a risky favorite on the road Monday night.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

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Nelly’s has offered a 2/3 offer in MLB just twice this season – going 6-0 on those picks. Get three picks tonight as we try to do it again 2/3 for Friday for just $25!

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 9’ Cleveland Indians (Bieber) at Texas Rangers (Minor) 1:05 PM CT

After dazzling in several starts late last season Shane Bieber carried high expectations in 2019 and that weight has grown with the injuries in the rotation for the Indians. Bieber has a decent 3.92 ERA but with a 3.30 xFIP and an amazing 11.4 K/9 this is clearly one of the AL’s very best starting pitchers. Bieber has allowed five or more runs three times in his last seven starts but his home and road splits are similar and he has also had eight starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. Mike Minor has overachieved with a 2.63 ERA next to a 4.02 xFIP but the strikeout numbers are there and Minor continues to provide reliable outcomes for the surprising Rangers. In each of his last 10 starts he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed and he has allowed an average of barely over one home run per nine innings, no small feat in Arlington. Minor has thrived at home with a 2.18 ERA and he has equally impressive splits vs. right-handers and left-handers. Cleveland has put up big numbers the past two days in this series but they got 10 runs last night on only 12 hits, fortunate to earn seven two-out RBI. It will be warm in Arlington with conditions that can favor offense but these are two elite AL starters and on an early start getaway game the number could be kept in check.

Join Nelly’s for an AL side play Thursday night for $15 or play the rest of June for $99. We’ve struggled the first two months this season but with four straight profitable MLB seasons, odds are a big run is ahead this summer, don’t miss out!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Washington Nationals (Fedde) -100 over San Diego Padres (Margevicius) 9:10 PM CT

Nick Margevicius was a compelling early-season story making the jump from AA to the San Diego rotation. The early returns were promising but his ERA is 7.24 the past six starts and his last outing after getting sent down for a tune-up start was among his worst of the season. Washington has been a big disappointment but the Nationals have been very good against left-handed pitching with an .851 team OPS. The Nationals have averaged 6.0 runs per game the past two weeks and quietly this team has gone 9-3 the past 12 games, scoring at least three runs in 12 of the past 13 games. In a small sample Erick Fedde has suspicious numbers with a 2.55 ERA but a 5.23 xFIP. The strikeouts haven’t been there for Fedde but he is a high-end prospect as a 2014 1st rounder and he had a 8.2 K/9 in just over 50 innings last year with Washington while posting a 9.4 K/9 in AAA last season. Fedde has made just three starts but he has allowed only three earned runs in 14 innings as a starter. San Diego continues to compete well but the Padres remain one of baseball’s worst hitting teams with a season OPS of just .713. San Diego is just 4-7 the past 11 games, topping five runs in only two of those games. Despite being six games below .500 while San Diego is above .500 Washington has the superior scoring differential on the season and projects as the superior team in the long run, and San Diego has a losing record at Petco Park.

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Nelly’s hit an AL underdog last night and we have an AL 2-for-1 offer tonight for only $15. We also look to win in the NBA to build on a 3-0 start in the NBA Finals and huge profits in the 2018-19 basketball season.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#969/970 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Oakland Athletics (Mengden) at Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 3:10 PM CT

Pitching for the Tigers Matthew Boyd isn’t getting a lot of attention but he has had an All Star caliber run in his first nine starts with a 3.15 ERA and a 10.8 K/9. He has now allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and his 2.86 FIP suggests it is a sustainable pace for the 28-year-old who has shown potential but inconsistency in past seasons. Oakland is the last place team in the AL West a year after making the playoffs and while Oakland has hit significantly better vs. left-handers they are batting with a .712 team OPS the past 23 games for marginal production.

That production bests the Tigers potential with Detroit’s lineup among the league’s worst in most offensive categories. The Tigers have the second highest strikeout rate in baseball while offering a very low walk rate and the second fewest home runs in MLB. That bodes well for Daniel Mengden in his second start of the season after posting great AAA numbers. Mengden was a useful starter for Oakland last year and while he allowed four runs in his 2019 debut he surrendered only five hits.

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Detroit has not topped five runs in 10 straight games to average just 2.4 runs per game. Oakland has posted 24 runs in the first two games of this series but the 17-run showing on Thursday featured only 16 hits and five unearned runs while these teams scored nine runs on only 13 hits last night. The weather in Detroit this afternoon should also favor pitching with cooler temperatures and the wind blowing win fairly strong from left-center.

Bobby Dalton has a big 4-play card in MLB Saturday as he looks for a third straight winning week while 3-1 in his last four Best Bets. Nelly’s MLB is 6-3 since Monday and we have a guaranteed afternoon total.

Bobby Dalton is 4-1 in the Conference Finals and is featuring a Game 3 side & total package in the NBA Saturday. Nelly’s is 2-0 in the Conference Finals and 10-6 in our last 16 playoff sides – don’t miss our Game 3 pick.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#951 Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -115 over Cincinnati Reds (Roark) 5:40 PM CT

With a pessimistic Pecota projection and some off-season uncertainty the Cubs started slowly in 2019 but now halfway through May, Chicago has the NL’s best record at 24-14, going 21-6 since April 11. The Cubs have won seven of the past eight road games and the lineup is crushing right-handed pitching with an .807 season OPS. Tanner Roark has posted good numbers for the Reds with a 3.27 ERA but a 4.80 xFIP hovers over his season line. While he has an 8.1 K/9 he also had a 4.1 BB/9 and Roark has benefitted from facing some of the NL’s lesser offensive teams this season.

Kyle Hendricks might be on pace to have a season that resembles his great 2016 campaign. While he has just two wins so far, his ERA is 3.19 and he has walked just eight batters in over 42 innings of work. He has an elevated BABIP and only a 65 percent strand rate as he is poised to improve his numbers in the coming weeks. His road splits present a great contrast to his 0.62 Wrigley Field ERA but his road starts have been exclusively against NL contenders and two of those outings were his first two starts of the season. Cincinnati has hit left-handed pitching quite well this season but with a .667 team OPS, this is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB vs. right-handed pitching. The Reds have outscored foes by 20 runs so far in May but are just 6-6, underscoring the recent issues of the bullpen with Cincinnati 1-4 in extra-innings games and 6-13 in one-run games this season.

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20-runs in season scoring differential came exclusively in  sweeping a three-game set with the lowly Marlins however and against two other elite NL squads the Reds have gone 0-6 facing the Dodgers and Brewers. On the road this season the Cubs have scored 7.0 runs per game while batting .283 vs. right-handers while the Reds have hit just .218 vs. right-handers at home this season. Even if Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist remain out this is a reasonable price to support the NL’s top team and a pitcher that is capable of being one of the best in the league.

Nelly’s Baseball has a 2/3 offer for Tuesday MLB action for $25 – our biggest card of the season so far! Bobby Dalton has won six of his last eight interleague picks and is featuring a 10* Best Bet tonight in his Trips-2-Win 2/3 for $29.99.

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Free MLB Pick May 8

#972 Detroit Tigers (Boyd) -115 over Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) 6:10 PM CT

Matt Boyd has shown flashes of greatness in his MLB climb the past three years but this season he has put it all together to emerge as one of the AL’s top pitchers. Detroit lacks a great offense behind him but Boyd has posted a 3.05 ERA and actually a 2.10 FIP that is the strongest in the entire American League by a wide margin. His 11.6 K/9 is also among the best strikeout rates in the league and he had accomplished that rate with a very low walk rate. Boyd had had to pitch at Fenway and at Yankee Stadium this season as it has been a difficult path and he is riding six consecutive quality starts since a marginal first outing in late March.

The Angels have been competitive this season but the offensive numbers fall off a cliff vs. left-handers with a .631 team OPS vs. southpaws, the fifth worst mark in MLB compared to a very strong .774 team OPS vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly the Angels are 13-10 vs. right-handed starters but only 3-9 vs. left-handers. Detroit has been one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball but the Tigers are a winning team at Comerica Park where Boyd has posted even stronger numbers. The Tigers are also a much better hitting vs. left-handers with a jump of 28 points in team OPS.

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Tyler Skaggs looked like a breakout candidate in a shortened 2018 season but he hasn’t matched that pace this season even if his ERA is 3.12 in 26 innings this season. His strikeout rate has plummeted while his FIP of 4.22 is more indicative of his future path of mediocrity. In his five starts Skaggs has faced a bottom seven team in MLB in team OPS vs. left-handers four times as he has drawn a very favorable path and still has had marginal results. His road ERA is also nearly double his home ERA and the Angels are only 5-10 in road games on the season. Detroit’s bullpen has rough numbers of late but with decent starting efforts the past two games the unit should be in better shape for Wednesday night.

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