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Free MLB Pick Thursday

905/906 UNDER 9 Texas Rangers (Minor) at Oakland Athletics (Fiers) 2:40 PM CT

Mike Minor has lost both of his starts this season but his FIP of 3.36 sits well below his 5.91 ERA, he has simply had terrible luck with nearly half of his base runners coming around to score. Minor has been a reliable option for the Rangers the past two seasons but he has struggled vs. Oakland allowing 17 runs in three starts last season. The Athletics crushed left-handed pitching with an .811 OPS in 2019 but the splits have gone the other way so far this season. With five straight wins and 28 runs so far in August, Oakland is emerging as a serious AL contender but the Coliseum remains a favorable pitching park. Mike Fiers also had a FIP much lower than his 5.40 ERA and should have better luck with base runners in upcoming starts. Fiers actually pitched quite well in his last three starts of 2019 vs. the Rangers and last night’s 10-run output was quite misleading. There were only 14 hits in the game and a combined seven at-bats with runners in scoring position. Even with the loss the Rangers preserved its bullpen last night while Burch Smith gave an extended relief outing to keep Oakland with most top options available today. Last night’s total was just 8 and there isn’t significant reason to move today’s number a full run given a pitching matchup that is of similar caliber, albeit with much less strikeout potential. Both teams are outside MLB’s top 18 in team wOBA and strong walk rates for both lineups aren’t likely to be a big factor in this pitching matchup.

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1-0 MLB Starts – Free Pick Friday

Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton both won last night for 1-0 starts to the 2020 MLB season last night!

Get offers for Friday night with a single play from Nelly’s for $15 and a 2-for-1 offer from Bobby Dalton for $19.99!
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A Free Pick for Friday night is posted below. Our Free Pick phone line is no longer active but we’ll be posting picks regularly on the site. 

Friday MLB Free Pick:

#965 Colorado Rockies (Marquez) + over Texas Rangers (Lynn) 7:05 PM CT

The Rockies were a huge disappointment in 2019 dropping 20 wins from its 2018 playoff season. German Marquez was a bright spot however with steady numbers for the Rockies, compiling a third consecutive double-digit win season. Marquez is still only 25 and could climb higher in stature with a K/9 that was north of 9.0 last season and great improvement in his walk rate. Pitching at Coor’s Field his ERA soared to 4.76 but an xFIP of 3.54 was much more impressive and he also significantly gained on his groundball rate last season. Bullpen depth won’t be a strength for the Rockies but Wade Davis is an elite option while Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez can generate strikeouts as Colorado will be in position to close out games even while Scott Oberg is on the IL. Marquez also owns a 3.72 ERA away from Coor’s as he should be in position to have success Friday night. The new ballpark in Texas opens tonight to offer some unknowns but obviously it won’t be the celebratory debut the Rangers hoped for. Texas is an intriguing team in the AL with some quality veteran starters but Lance Lynn is a candidate to slide backwards this season. Lynn won 16 games and posted a career high K/9 last season, somewhat out of the blue after an uneven 2018 season. He transformed into much more of a strikeout/fly ball pitcher last season but also benefited from a light path as nine of his quality starts came vs. the Royals, Mariners, and Angels, accounting for nearly a third of his season statistics. The first month of the season is historically Lynn’s worst with a 3.94 ERA in March and April. Texas has six possible contributors likely ruled out for tonight with a lengthy IL report as while the Rangers may be a viable AL playoff threat in the expanded format, the opening night matchup looks problematic.

Don’t miss our rated pick tonight for only $15! We started the season 1-0 on Thursday!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#965/966 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) at Houston Astros (Peacock) 7:10 PM CT

There were 21 runs scored in Houston’s 11-10 loss to the Rangers but there were only 21 hits in that game for a bizarre scoring barrage led by seven home runs. Houston only had one hit with runners in scoring position in that game despite posting 10 runs and they only had five at-bats with runners in scoring position as the game proved to be an extreme outlier in scoring efficiency.

While Collin McHugh had a disastrous start Sunday he managed to record 10 outs and allowed Houston to only use three relievers with Will Harris and Ryan Pressly pitching minimally enough that they should still be available today with both of those relievers still clocking 0.00 ERAs on the season. The Houston bullpen has been outstanding this season but Brad Peacock has been very sharp in 16 innings of work for the Astros with a 3.40 FIP and a very low walk rate.

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Minnesota has great offensive numbers this season but they are coming off facing the Orioles to inflate the numbers over the weekend. With three games the past two days this could be a fatigued team in Houston but Jake Odorizzi has looked good so far this season with a 3.15 FIP and a 11.1 K/9. His walk rate has been high but he has also faced a tough set of four opponents.

This looks like an offensive showcase but Jose Altuve and Max Kepler could again be sitting out after both missed Sunday’s games and the oddsmakers have pushed this total to match the highest total in Houston this season despite the Athletics and Yankees visiting this season. Saturday’s 16-run outburst inflates the season numbers for the Twins who have scored four or fewer runs in nine of 19 games while Houston has scored four or fewer runs 13 times this season.

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Nelly’s has turned in four straight profitable MLB seasons – we just started our 2019 season and will have daily updates through the World Series. The Full Season subscription is $595.

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Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton have been featuring regular NBA Playoff updates as well. The 1st round has been a mild disappointment after huge gains for both in the regular season but there are plenty of winners ahead with two months remaining in the playoffs. Dalton is back with a 10* for one of the big Game 4 matchups Monday.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#926 Cincinnati Reds (Romano) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 6:10 PM CT

24-year-old Sal Romano is an imposing figure on the mound as one of the largest in stature players in the game. He showed some promise in 16 starts on a bad Reds team last season but he hasn’t taken a step forward this season, struggling through 14 starts with a 5.67 ERA for a last place team. Romano has better numbers at home and he has been very effective against right-handed batters with a .225 batting average against and his season xFIP is a bit more respectable at 4.82. He delivered a fine start at Kansas City in his last outing and in six of his last eleven outings he has allowed two or fewer runs.

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Left-hander Matt Boyd has posted a 3.23 ERA this season but his xFIP is actually higher than Romano’s at 4.98. Boyd has benefitted from a .232 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are marginal with a 7.0 K/9. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher and pitching in Cincinnati that could be a problem compared with his spacious home park in Detroit. Not surprisingly Boyd has much worse numbers on the road with the Tigers just 13-20 in road games this season despite being a surprise team in the AL so far this season.

The Reds have a bullpen edge in this matchup with a 2.92 ERA over the past 10 games in relief innings and overall this season both teams have fared better vs. left-handed pitching to give Cincinnati the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup. Since starting the season 8-27 the Reds have played exactly .500 ball since May 8 including winning four of the past six games ahead of this home stand. Detroit has quietly won five in a row but they did so with light scoring as the Tigers have been held to four or fewer runs in 12 of the past 15 games. Trust the oddmakers and support the small favorite tonight despite the contrasting records for these squads.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night to make it a 12-4 run the past eight days as part of a great start to June, profitable in 13 of 17 updates this month. Join the Big Dog through the All Star break for just $169!

Nelly’s was a winner on the diamond last night as well as we are 16-7 the past 22 days in baseball picks. Get daily updates with our All Star Break subscription through July 15 for only $149!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#903 Milwaukee Brewers (Anderson) -115 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) 6:05 PM CT

Chase Anderson has been Mr. Reliable for the Brewers as in 21 of 22 starts this season he has allowed four or fewer runs, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 18 of 22 outings. Since returning from the DL for the stretch run Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six starts including beating the Pirates last Wednesday.

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Trevor Williams has held a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation with average numbers this season, though he was skipped last week to keep his inning count down. Williams also has been struggling with one win in his last six starts and a 4.54 ERA with a 4.81 BB/9 rate in that span. There isn’t a big advantage for Williams at home and left-handed batters are hitting .294 against him with the Brewers batting seven lefties last night against right-handed Jameson Taillon and a similar deployment will be possible tonight.

Milwaukee’s playoff odds are getting steeper but it is of no fault of the team’s recent results with an 8-2 run to notch win #80 last night. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up with a .771 team OPS the past 11 games for 5.5 runs per game and the bullpen has been outstanding in recent weeks.

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After showing some life mid-season the Pirates have called the season with a 5-15 run the past 20 games. Pittsburgh offense has failed top  three runs in 11 of the last 12 games as the Pirates could finish with league worst offensive numbers as a season OPS of just .703 id down to .595 over the past 12 games, averaging 1.8 runs per game.

Bobby Dalton has been red hot on the diamond – don’t miss Tuesday’s Trips-2-Win 2/3 Guarantee! Bobby Dalton has had profits in 18 of his last 22 programs, plus a 15-3 in his 10* Best Bet selections. He is already 9-4 in September and on a 19-7 overall run on the diamond. Three picks are featured in Tuesday’s evening Trips-2-Win 2/3 Guarantee with a 10* Best Bet Total (8-3 O/U run) plus two 5* side plays including an interleague pick (35-20 interleague run) as Dalton looks to build on a 49-33 run in Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers! No charge unless you win at least two out of three on the diamond Tuesday night with the Big Dog!

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#920 Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) -110 over Boston Red Sox (Porcello) 6:05 PM CT

J.A. Happ hasn’t matched last season’s success but he has been throwing better than his season line suggests. Happ has a 4.04 ERA over his last six starts to remain on his season pace but his FIP in that run is just 1.98. Impressively he has a 10.9 K/9 in that run and he has not allowed a home runs.

Boston is 60-42 vs. right-handed starters this season but just 15-15 vs. left-handers and while the Red Sox are 17-8 this August, they are just 2-4 the past six games with only 19 runs scored.

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Rick Porcello has endured the opposite fate of fortune compared with last season’s Cy Young campaign, going from 22-4 to just 8-15 so far this season despite pitching on one of baseball’s best teams. Porcello has had tough luck but he isn’t pitching well, with a 4.57 season ERA and he has allowed three or more runs in 13 of his past 16 starts.

Toronto’s offense still features several quality threats and the Blue Jays are a .500 squad vs. right-handers while going just 11-21 vs. left-handers this season. The Blue Jays are still a winning team at home and Toronto is only 7.5 games out of the second wild card spot as the team is still playing hard.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#923 Washington Nationals (Lopez) +145 over Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) 6:05 PM CT

Reynaldo Lopez might be a wild card for the Nationals down the stretch as the 22-year old has impressed through four starts with a 10.3 K/9 rate and a 3.32 FIP. He has benefitted from facing Atlanta twice but he is facing an Orioles team that has been erratic offensively of late and the once owners of the best home record in baseball are just 2-5 on the current home stand even after last night’s 4-3 win. Kevin Gausman couldn’t buy a win early in the season despite very effective numbers but he has been less effective down the stretch. Since mid-June his ERA is 4.70 with a corresponding 4.42 FIP and while he is generating strikeouts he has allowed 74 hits in 67 innings in that span including 13 home runs allowed. Gausman has far better numbers at home where the Orioles are 6-3 in his starts but a Washington lineup coming off back-to-back one-run losses will be ready for this matchup. The Nationals have an eight-game lead in the NL East as there is not great urgency but on the season Washington is 125 runs superior to Baltimore in run differential even with the Orioles staying in the playoff chase. Washington is 26-13 this season in the second game of a series and over the last 10 games the Nationals are batting .281 with 7.5 runs per game vs. right-handed pitching. Washington is 5-4 in the last nine games as an underdog and this is a favorable price on a talented young pitcher that should be well supported.

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