#961/962 ‘UNDER 10.5’ Boston Red Sox (Rodriguez) at Cleveland Indians (Plesac) 6:10 PM CT
In his last 14 starts Eduardo Rodriguez is 9-2 with a 3.36 ERA, posting good strikeout numbers and pitching nearly as well on the road. Zach Plesac doesn’t have the strikeout potential of his rotation mates but he has been effective with a 3.13 ERA on the season. He pitched well against Boston in his MLB debut and while he has benefitted from weak opposition in many of his starts he has provided a capable path to the great Cleveland bullpen. Yesterday Cleveland won 7-3 but they were inches away from losing 4-3 and the game was 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. The Indians are on a 43-18 run since the start of June but few of those results came vs. quality teams with the Indians 21-25 vs. above .500 squads on the season. Cleveland owns a great record vs. left-handed starters but only a .736 team OPS vs. southpaws as they have benefitted from several Detroit and Kansas City left-handers to boost that win count, ultimately going 22-7 vs. those teams this season. Rodriguez is an above average starter and the Boston bullpen has steadied with a 3.60 ERA the past 10 games. Cleveland home games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season with a sharp lean to the ‘under’ in all Indians games and the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Cleveland home games with a total of 10.5 or higher.
Don’t miss a Nelly’s Baseball 2-for-1 offer for $15 Monday night!
#973 Pittsburgh Pirates (Taillon) +195 over Cleveland Indians (Bauer) 12:10 PM CT
The Pirates can’t be counted out of the NL Central race just yet, now winners of 11 in a row to sit four games above .500 and just six games behind the Cubs for the division lead while only three games out of a tie for the final wild card spot. Pittsburgh is 13-1 since July 8 led by great production at the plate and elite numbers in the bullpen. Pittsburgh has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of the last 15 games while scoring at least six runs in eight of the past nine games. Adding a DH in AL parks has helped immensely with Pittsburgh 12-2 in interleague play and over the past 10 games the Pirates have a .962 team OPS while batting .345 with 9.0 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching. Trevor Bauer is one of the best right-handers in baseball but the Pirates dominated Corey Kluber and Shane Bieber the past two nights. Bauer only has eight wins and his xFIP is almost a run higher than his ERA His first start after the All Star game was rocky with four runs allowed in four innings. The Indians have great offensive numbers overall but they have been a team of extremes with many all-or-nothing games. Jameson Taillon has dominated in his last two starts and he has gone 10 consecutive starts without allowing more than three runs, posting a 2.95 FIP in that span with a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being a better pitcher on the road this season. A couple reserves starting this game for the Pirates sends this line upward but the red hot Pirates may still be worth a look as Taillon hasn’t needed great support of late and the late inning bullpen edge is firmly with Pittsburgh.
Nelly’s has a NL Contender Clash pick today for just $15 on a 33-23 run. Bobby Dalton went 4-1 yesterday and he has a 10* Best Bet tonight for $24.99!
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#916 Kansas City Royals (Kennedy) + over Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) 1:15 PM CT
Ian Kennedy has endured an up-and-down season for the Royals with a great start to season before a mostly miserable stretch in late May into early June. Kennedy has rebounded with five straight strong outings for the Royals featuring a 2.96 ERA since June 21, posting 34 strikeouts in just over 27 innings of work. Four of those starts have been on the road including tough venues in his last two starts against Toronto and Detroit. The Royals are 30-14 in home games after shocking the Indians with a comeback win on Monday but losing behind an unproven starter last night. While the World Series champions have been somewhat underwhelming this season this is a huge series for the team and the host has completely dominated in the matchups between these squads this season. Kennedy has also been his best at Kauffman Stadium with a 2.11 ERA and the Royals 5-1 in his home starts. Carlos Carrasco is finally delivering on years of promise and expectations with a great season going to help the AL Central leading Indians. Carrasco has not had the same success against the Royals as in two starts this season he has surrendered 19 hits and five runs in 11 innings of work without picking up a win. The Cleveland bullpen has shown some recent vulnerability and that is still an area where the Royals have an edge in this matchup even with the recent late innings shuffling. This is a very favorable price on one of baseball’s best home teams and the recent form for Kennedy is especially enticing while Carrasco looks due for regression sporting a 4.10 FIP relative to his 2.49 ERA.
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