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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#508 Atlanta Hawks +8.5 over Miami Heat 6:35 PM CT

The Heat lead a three-way tie for the final three spots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, coming off narrowly defeating the Hawks last night. In a true home-and-home the Heat are in Atlanta tonight and this is a Miami team with one S/U win in the past 12 road games going back to late January. Miami has a great ATS road record for the season but those wins have come almost exclusively as an underdog, going 4-5 ATS on the season as a road favorite with this line set to be the biggest road favorite price of the season for the Heat.

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Atlanta has one of the NBA’s worst records but 16 of the team’s 22 wins have come at home. The host is 3-0 in this series this season and the Hawks were -1.5 when they won by six hosting the Heat earlier this season for a dramatic line swing. Atlanta has a limited roster right now with the loss of a few key players but it is a hungry group ready for the opportunity and playing hard for four quarters.

Miami is 6-14-1 ATS on the season when laying 5 or more points this season and the Hawks won the rebounding battle last night while keeping the turnover count close. Miami shot just 42 percent and only had 11 points at the line but they lost by just three points. The Heat is only playing nine right now as playing on back-to-back nights could be a challenge. Atlanta is 8-5-1 ATS this season playing on back-to-back nights and Miami has far more prominent games remaining in the season’s final three games after this contest.

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#508 Minnesota Timberwolves -12 over Atlanta Hawks 7:05 PM CT

After being embarrassed at home against Memphis on Monday the Wolves should be sharp on Wednesday night. Losing as a 13-point favorite Minnesota is now clinging to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference as a team that once looked like a serious Finals contender now is just 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers for the final spot. Minnesota is 27-10 S/U at home and Minnesota has lost three consecutive games just once all season.

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On Monday Minnesota scored 11 points in the fourth quarter and were outshot by six percent overall including by 15 percent from 3-point line as Wayne Selden had a career game with 23 points for the Grizzlies. The Wolves don’t have much depth and they were playing a third game in four days after a pair of prominent east coast games followed up a big home win over the Clippers last Tuesday.

Atlanta has lost nine of the last 10 games and six of those losses came by 12 or more points. The Hawks have the third worst record in the NBA in a race to the bottom and Atlanta has no margin for error with five teams within three games ‘ahead’ of them in the standings. Atlanta is 6-31 S/U on the road this season for the league’s worst road record and a dysfunctional Minnesota group knows it cannot afford to let this game get away.

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