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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

Bobby Dalton has a guaranteed 10* total for Friday night – $19.99 pay after you win with a bonus 5* included.

Nelly’s has offered a 2/3 offer in MLB just twice this season – going 6-0 on those picks. Get three picks tonight as we try to do it again 2/3 for Friday for just $25!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

Don’t miss a huge 15* Best Bet Game of the Month Total from Bobby Dalton for Friday Night Baseball. Dalton won his April 15* and he guarantees to win tonight with a 15* for $29.99. Get three additional picks from Bobby Dalton tonight in a Trips-2-Win offer as well!

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#797 Wichita State +2 over Temple 8:30 PM CT

Regarded as one of the top coaches in the country Gregg Marshall has endured a disappointing season at Wichita State and barring a great run in Memphis the Shockers will be out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011, when they won the NIT. This year’s team started 1-6 in AAC play but has rallied to win nine of the final 11 conference games and took out East Carolina in tournament action yesterday. The draw with Temple is a difficult one and the Owls won in Wichita in an 85-81 overtime result in early January. Temple is a definitive NCAA Tournament bubble team with a high-end win over Houston but not much else and four overtime wins boost the win count for the 23-8 Owls but only five wins this season have been top 100 results. Wichita State beat Providence and Baylor early in the season taking on a very difficult non-conference slate and the Shockers are still capable of clamping down defensively. Wichita State takes great care of the ball as Temple won’t get its usual filling of turnovers and the Owls can struggle on the glass at times. Temple is 8-2 in the past 10 games but they didn’t face either of the top two AAC teams in that stretch and the big regular season finale win over UCF came in a favorable spot after the Knights had defeated Houston and Cincinnati in consecutive games.

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Nelly’s went 3-1 Thursday for an 18-9 start to March – we have hit 64% and are 40 games above .500 since early December. Join for all of March Madness for $199 through April 8 – and don’t miss tonight’s 2* Top Play – hitting 75% on 2* picks this season.

Bobby Dalton has a huge card for Friday night with a HIGH FIVE 3/5 guarantee for $39.99 – Dalton headed into Friday 26-13 in March selections this season so far!

Big E is 6-2 in conference tournament picks and has his next Biggie play for $9.94 Friday night!

Point Train has also released a rare 7-unit for his Conference Tournament GOY!

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Friday Night ACC Football

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia

Contribution from Brooks Brazeau of Point Train

 

Friday Night in Charlottesville, Virginia will be electric as the Cavaliers welcome the Panthers of Pittsburgh to town in a battle for division supremacy.

Virginia finds themselves in a way better position right now than most of the fanbase thought they would be to begin the year as the “Hoos” find themselves with a record of 6-2 overall and atop the ACC Coastal. The 25th ranked Cavaliers have had lots of success this season, stemming from the terrific play of junior quarterback Bryce Perkins. Earlier this season the former junior college transfer became the second player in Virginia football history to throw for more than 200 yards and rush for more than 100 in the same game. On the season, Perkins has thrown for 1.623 yards with a touchdown to interception ratio of 15:8. Perkins has also rushed for over 500 yards as well as six touchdowns. Perkins dual-threat ability will be on full display Friday night and could cause some major issues for the Panthers defense.

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The Panthers head down Charlottesville looking to bring back with them a share of the ACC Coastal division lead. Pittsburgh is trending upwards. Last weekend against Duke, the Panthers registered their best offensive game of the season racking up 634 yards, 484 of which were on the ground. This plays very well for the Panthers as Virginia’s rush defense is not the best, giving up an average of 113 yards on the ground per game.

The major storyline is this one is the play on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. As well as the Pitt offense played last week, the defense played horribly against a bad Duke team allowing 45 points on 619 yards. Will be tough for the Panthers to stop the elusive Bryce Perkins as he can run and throw the ball over the field. On the flip side, it will be almost equally as tough for the Cavaliers to stop the Pitt rushing attack as the Hoos defense against the run is far from the best.

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Point Train has a huge weekend lined up with 7 BETS Friday to Sunday for $77 with a guaranteed Profit! Point Train went 5-1 last weekend and has turned in two different 7-0 weekends this season while +43.4 units in NCAA action and +18.4 units overall through Nov. 1 this season.

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Free NBA Pick Friday

#703 New York Knicks +4 over Brooklyn Nets 6:30 PM CT

Beating the Hawks at home isn’t likely to be a great performance by season’s end but the Knicks dominated with a 23-point halftime lead before coasting to a 126-107 win on Wednesday. The Knicks pushed the pace and feature a formidable backcourt with multiple scoring options and the three starting guards combined for only three turnovers in a combined 84 minutes on the court. Kevin Knox had a productive debut even with a lot of missed shots but the overlooked frontcourt of Noah Vonleh, Enes Kanter, and Lance Thomas was very efficient.

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This is the home opener for the Nets after a 103-100 loss at Detroit Wednesday. The Nets won the final preseason game between these teams but Brooklyn had very poor outside shooting in Detroit to lose despite shooting 49 percent overall. The frontcourt struggled mightily defensively and the Nets had 19 turnovers while also missing seven free throws. This is a big series for the Knicks who won and covered in all four meetings last season and have gone 14-7 ATS in the past 21 meetings going back to 2012.

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Basketball service plays will start in early November – check out football & MLB offers from Nelly’s and the featured handicappers for this weekend’s action! Point Train went 7-0 last weekend and hit Thursday night to start the week – don’t miss his 8-unit play Saturday! Maximum is on a red hot run with profits in 5 of the last 6 college weeks and five straight NFL weeks – get his 7* Game of the Week!

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Friday NCAA Preview WSU vs. USC

Washington State at USC

Friday, Sep. 21 – preview courtesy of Point Train

Friday Night the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum will play host to Friday night football for the first time since the start of the new millennium as the upstart Cougars of Washington State travel into town to face a dejected USC Trojans squad looking to get back on track.

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Washington State will open conference play Friday night in the City of Angels at 7:30pm local time as they look to take down the Trojans of the University of Southern California. Mike Leach’s Cougars have started off the year strong, 3-0 entering a tough road test in week four. In order for the Cougars to return to Pullman with a double U they will need a plethora of things to go their way. For starters, East Carolina transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew will have to play well on the road. Minshew has played well in the first three weeks, passing for 1203 yards, as well as eight touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. Minshew, coupled with a lethal wide receiving core featuring Davontavean Martin who already has 290 yards receiving and three touchdowns, can cause major problems for a battered and bruised USC secondary.

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USC plays it’s second Pac-12 conference game of the season this Friday night as they play host the Washington State. The Men of Troy have not started out the season very well to say the least. Struggling offensively with true freshman quarterback JT Daniels, the Trojans have failed to break 20 points in two of their first three games to start the season. Clay Helton’s squad hopes to get back to their winning ways of week one and in order to accomplish this feat the Trojans will need better play from Daniels as well as everyone else really. Pac-12 conference football is a different animal than your week one non-conference UNLV, and the Trojans need to step it up this Friday or they will find them in a tough 0-2 hole in the Pac-12 South. It’s gut check time whether the Trojans like it or not, and they better figure something out quick.

Point Train has a special Guaranteed Profit Weekend going this week – already 1-0 with the Thursday night winner Point Train has been profitable so far this season in BOTH NCAA & NFL picks. Get all picks through Monday with a net profit or the fee is waived!

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Friday Night NCAA: TCU at SMU

TCU at SMU: Preview courtesy of POINT TRAIN

For 364 days of the year, the Dallas-Fort Worth area is for the most part very friendly when it comes to college football. The one day it is not is the day the football teams of Texas Christian University and Southern Methodist University meet on the field and battle for the Iron Skillet. This year’s edition comes to us from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas on Friday, September 7th.

The start of the season for TCU and SMU could not have been more different. TCU opened the season last Saturday by absolutely shellacking Southern 55-7. Horned Frogs quarterback Shawn Robinson lead the way by scoring five touchdowns (three in the air, two on the ground) in the first half while also throwing for 182 yards on 24 attempts. SMU kicked off Saturday night against the Mean Green of North Texas at Apogee Stadium. The Mustangs didn’t look great as they came out of Denton with their tails between their legs in a loss 46-23. Quarterback Ben Hicks completed 12/24 passes and finished with a quarterback rating of 1.3. SMU running backs had a big night combining for a grand total of 4 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Defensively the Mustangs gave up 444 yards and three touchdowns on fifty attempts to North Texas starting quarterback Mason Fine.

A far from ideal debut for new Mustangs head coach Sonny Dykes.

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Sonny Dykes looks to end the six-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs this Friday night. To do so he’ll need significantly better play from his secondary. The Mustangs return four starters in the secondary, yet are statistically the second worst FBS school against the pass. One silver lining SMU can look at is that they only allowed 68 yards on the ground last weekend to North Texas. Stopping the run game from TCU as well as stopping Shawn Robinson’s ability to make plays with his feet will be a tall task, but if done well can have the potential to flip the script in the direction of the Mustangs.

Gary Patterson looks to improve upon his team’s current six game winning streak over the Mustangs Friday night in Dallas. TCU fans should feel pretty good about its chances having absolutely walloped Southern last week. To be successful against SMU Friday night the Frogs need to A.) continue to balance out the attack offensively and B.) not look too far ahead to their game against Ohio State on the 15th.

In reference to point “A”: In TCU’s win over Southern they were incredibly balanced yardage wise as they threw for 264 yards and rushed for 235. If the Horned Frogs can continue to keep such an attack going this Friday in Dallas and keep the Mustangs defense on their toes and their heels at the same time they will be very successful.

In regards to “B”: The Horned Frogs have a massive game next Saturday at AT&T Stadium against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but it won’t mean nearly as much if TCU falters this week. A rivalry game such as the battle for the Iron Skillet doesn’t necessarily fit the criteria for a trap game, however, it definitely is. TCU is the favorite, there’s no secret there, however SMU can play and if TCU isn’t focused and ready to play this can and will be a lot closer than people think.

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Point Train is 4-2 so far this college football season winning in last week’s biggest pick with a 5-unit winner on Cincinnati’s upset over UCLA! This week’s first 6-unit Top Play is lined up as the Non-Conference Game of the Year for Saturday! Point Train also started the NFL season 1-0 with a Thursday night ‘under’ play on Philadelphia’s 18-12 win over the Falcons.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#970 Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) +120 over Oakland Athletics (Manaea) 7:10 PM CT

The Twins have been a disappointment this season but Minnesota has played respectable ball in the past two months even as one of the big trade deadline sellers. The Twins have a .784 team OPS in the past 12 games with 21 home runs and 5.5 runs per game on average. Minnesota won the season’s first meeting with Oakland last night and Minnesota could play spoiler with six more games remaining against the Athletics. Since early July Minnesota is 26-18 while scoring 5.1 runs per game and the Twins are 39-26 at Target Field on the season.

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The season numbers support a preference for facing right-handers for Minnesota but in the past 10 games the Twins have hit .260 with 7.6 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching. Sean Manaea has a nice season line with a 3.70 ERA but take out a brilliant month of April and he is a league-average pitcher with a 4.74 ERA just a 5.6 K/9. Manaea has allowed at least two runs in 18 of his last 20 starts as he has rarely been dominant and over his last three starts (all at home) he owns a 6.91 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi has been a solid starter for Minnesota and he owns a 3.88 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has a 9.9 K/9 in that span with two or fewer runs allowed in seven of those 10 starts. Despite the sell off the Twins have a 1.99 bullpen ERA the past 10 games and Oakland’s lineup has also been better vs. lefties of late as Odorizzi isn’t an ideal draw. Oakland is just 4-4 the past eight games and the team has failed to top four runs in six of the last nine games. With a 26-10 record in one-run games this has been a fortunate team and the deep bullpen has been worked hard the past two games with disappointing losses dropping the Athletics 1.5 games behind Houston. Oakland has one win in the last six visits to Minneapolis and the home underdog price is appealing on a Twins squad that is still playing hard.

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Nelly’s is 10-4 in our last 14 MLB picks – check out Friday’s MLB package. Big E and Bobby Dalton also have big football picks planned for preseason Week 3.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#977 Seattle Mariners (LeBlanc) +130 over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 9:05 pM CT

Journeyman Wade LeBlanc has been a nice story for the Mariners at 6-1 with a 3.44 ERA. An xFIP of 4.35 lurks beyond the conventional line however and LeBlanc has allowed six home runs in his last five starts. LeBlanc has only allowed 19 walks in over 96 innings and he has pitched fantastic in two starts vs. the Angels with only seven hits and three runs allowed over 12 innings, with a win in both starts. The Angels are a .500 team that is 9-20 on the season vs. left-handed starters. On the season Los Angeles is batting .214 with a .647 team OPS vs. southpaws for some of the very worst splits in all of MLB.

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Andrew Heaney has good numbers on the season with a 3.66 ERA and steady strikeout counts but he isn’t a proven top of the rotation starter that should command this price against a playoff contender. Eight times in his last 12 starts has Heaney allowed three or more runs and while his ERA is solid at 3.53 in that span his xFIP is 4.27. The Mariners have defeated Heaney twice in that span as well with eight runs in 10 innings. Seattle is getting pushed by Oakland in the wild card race but the Mariners prefer to face left-handers batting .262 with a .738 team OPS vs. southpaws for a slight edge over the numbers vs. right-handers. The Mariners have been a losing team in July with a decline in offensive production but they have won seven of 12 games with the Angels while 27-22 on the road this season. Los Angeles has a 4.84 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and in that span the offense has hit .162 with 2.2 runs per nine vs. left-handers.

Nelly’s has a 2-for-1 offer for $15 Friday night while Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet total! Dalton is on a current 10-3 run with a 23-13 Best Bet run!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#919/920 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy appeared to be on pace to becoming one of the top left-handers in the AL, used as a reliever in the 2014 and 2015 postseasons after being a capable back of the rotation starter. Duffy became a full-time starter in 2016 and delivered a great season. In down year for the Royals last season Duffy still made competitive starts but he has struggled in 2018 for an even worst performing Kansas City squad. His ERA is 4.59 with a 4.98 FIP and his BB/9 has climbed to 4.2. Duffy has a hefty contract through 2021 as he isn’t likely to be dealt even though he has looked the part of a very useful starter of late, allowing posting five starts with one or fewer allowed over his last seven outings. His ERA is actually just 2.73 over his last 10 starts and he has dominated the Twins twice in that stretch, allowing just one run over 12 innings.

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Minnesota owns a .699 team OPS vs. left-handers on the season and while a 9-2 run into the break has kept the Twins hanging on in the AL Central conversation this team is still a candidate to move some pieces at the deadline and the recent rise in production mostly came against the bottom of the AL. Minnesota has just 18 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances this season vs. left-handed pitching.

Jose Berrios represented the Twins in the All Star game but since late April Kyle Gibson has been the team’s top starter. In his last 15 starts his ERA is just 3.23 with solid strikeout marks and few home runs allowed. He posted seven shutout innings vs. the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in late May and Kansas City has a AL worst .666 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens have been a mess to offer some concern in the late innings but off the long layoff the managers will be able to have all of their options at full strength.

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Bobby Dalton picked up +46.0* in June! He has a 20-11 run in Best Bests at the break and has a 10* Best Bet for Friday afternoon! 

Nelly’s has turned in a profit in 9 of 14 weeks this season. We finished the first half 11 games above .500 with nearly +9.0* of profit. Totals are red hot with a 17-7 run at the break while 32-19 (63%) overall since May 28!