Posted on

Free MLB Pick Friday

#957/958 ‘UNDER 9’ Chicago Cubs (Lackey) at Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff) 6:35 PM CT

John Lackey hasn’t been nearly as successful as last season for the Cubs but he has shown some life down the stretch and he has delivered a pair of late season quality starts against the Brewers. Lackey owns a 4.62 ERA on the season but since the All Star break he is 6-2 with a 3.69 ERA and will be a strong candidate to start in the postseason for the Cubs.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The contrast in experience on the mound tonight is glaring as 24-year old Brandon Woodruff gets the call for the Brewers in a critically important game. Woodruff has made six starts for Milwaukee, pitching quite well with a 3.28 ERA and the Cubs haven’t faced him. His strikeout numbers are mediocre but he has allowed just 10 walks in more than 35 innings of work and he has been exceptionally tough on right-handed batters with those foes hitting just .151 against him.

It is hard to imagine a more crushing loss for the Brewers than Thursday’s opener in this huge four-game set. Milwaukee led 3-2 going into the ninth inning only to see the game tied and then taking the loss in the 10th. There were 24 hits last night despite modest scoring but both teams will continue to pull out all the stops for every matchup with 12 pitchers appearing last night and numerous position changes defensively.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” category=”bobby-dalton-baseball,nellys-baseball” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Milwaukee offense has cooled from its early season pace with a .746 team OPS the past 24 games while the Cubs have been erratic with the average scoring boosted with 39 runs in three games vs. the Mets last week even though the Cubs have been held to five or fewer runs in 12 of the last 17 games. With playoff intensity and extra wear last night a lower scoring grind again looks likely Friday.

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Friday

Most didn’t expect Mike Clevinger to last in the rotation all season long nor be a candidate for the postseason rotation but it is hard to argue with the results by the unconventional 26-year-old right-hander. Since mid-June his ERA is 3.21 with a 6-2 record and a 10.2 K/9. His walk rate has also climbed downward substantially in the last month and he has turned in back-to-back scoreless performances on the current 15-game winning streak for the Indians.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Despite that dominance the Indians are only a modest favorite tonight hosting Baltimore. Since the All Star break Cleveland is 21 games above .500 while outscoring foes by 125 runs. They have outscored Baltimore 28-10 in four games this season and Cleveland is crushing left-handed pitching with a .796 team OPS on the season with the Indians overall posting a .983 OPS the past 13 games.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Baltimore has been a lousy road team this season and while 3-4 the past seven games all three wins came in walk-off fashion. Baltimore is a worse hitting team vs. right-handed pitching and Clevinger pitched well in a win at Baltimore in June. Wade Miley owns a 4.91 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 5.19.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” category=”bobby-dalton-baseball,nellys-baseball” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Right-handed batters are hitting .290 vs. Miley on the season. It appears Miley is pitching well of late but he has failed top five innings in four of his last seven starts with the coaching staff often unwilling to leave him in a third time through the lineup. Cleveland is clearly one of baseball’s very best teams, a squad dominating on a long winning streak while posted as just a modest favorite tonight at home.

Nelly’s is on a 16-8 MLB run while Bobby Dalton is on a 12-5 MLB run for great late season results. Don’t miss Friday night guarantees on the diamond.

Posted on

Free MLB Pick – Friday, June 24

#906 Miami Marlins (Koehler) +150 over Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) 6:10 PM CT

There has been some recent erosion in the numbers for Kyle Hendricks who still owns a great 2.94 ERA and a nearly 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Cubs have lost four of his last seven starts and for the first time all season Chicago has lost four consecutive games. While the run differential for the Cubs is still remarkable, leading baseball by a mile at +162, the division lead is now just nine games over the Cardinals and the Rangers are actually just a game behind the Cubs for baseball’s best record. Hendricks featured a lot of groundball outs in the first two months of the season and there has been a sharp decline in those percentages over his last three starts. His strikeout numbers have been good in that run but he has allowed seven runs in his last three starts, including giving up three home runs. Incredibly the Cubs are only 6-7 behind Hendricks and 41-17 behind the other starters for the team and the home/road splits severely contrast for the right-hander with Hendricks 1-5 on the road with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The recent slide has mostly been due to the offense however as Chicago is batting just .229 in the last 10 games while scoring 3.8 runs per game, big drops from the season production. Chicago has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games and they face a hot pitcher in Tom Koehler. With rather average career numbers Koehler may be on track for a career year as he has been outstanding since early May. After allowing eight runs on May 1 Koehler owns a 2.58 ERA in nine starts since, posting seven quality starts in that run and allowing only one home run in over 55 innings of work. His season numbers are much stronger in Miami and this is a Marlins team that has quietly charged right into the playoff race including a recent 7-3 run the past 10 games. Miami’s bullpen owns a dominant 1.67 ERA in the past 10 games while the late innings have been a recent sore spot for the Cubs and Miami is batting .311 with 5.6 runs per game in that span vs. right-handed pitching. The host has won five of the last six in this series and despite his team playing in its worst stretch of the season Hendricks is a similarly priced road favorite today against a 39-34 Marlins team as he was at home vs. a 34-39 Pirates team in his last start.

[displayProduct type=”list” category=”nellys-baseball” perpage=”3″ list=image,title,price,button,excerpt]