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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#638 Tennessee +1 over Florida 1:00 PM CT

With 10 losses Florida has been a disappointment this season with a roster many expected could compete for a national title. A big March run remains possible for the Gators but this valuation is a bit lofty for the Gators coming off a huge win over LSU with the current 6-2 run featuring mostly the worst teams in the SEC including a pair of wins over Vanderbilt. The only three road wins in SEC play for Florida came vs. foes that grade worse than Tennessee and after a run of back-to-back huge games vs. top conference contenders this could be a flat spot. Tennessee has had a challenging season coming off being a national force last year, with the loss of Lamonte Turner as season-changing blow. Tennessee has limped to a 7-8 SEC run but not without several competitive showings and still a formidable home court. Tennessee has won its last two home games and the team enter this game off a rare lopsided loss losing badly at Arkansas Wednesday after beating the Razorbacks soundly at home earlier in the month. Tennessee has not lost three consecutive SEC games all season and this game is critical given that a road trip to Lexington is up next Tuesday night. Florida has faced the 14th ranked SEC schedule for a favorable path that inflates the numbers and Tennessee has featured an outstanding interior defense this season that is among the best in the SEC. Tennessee allows less than 32 percent from 3-point range as well as the Gators aren’t likely to hit their season averages against a bigger Volunteers lineup. Tennessee has won four of the last five in this series with Florida last winning in Knoxville in 2014.

Nelly’s Basketball is 40-22 the past 39 days for an over 64% run heading into March Madness. Join us for all picks through April 6 for just $269 to build on a huge 34-18 run in the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons! Play today’s 2/3 as we look to add to a 5-0 NBA run while hitting each of our last two 2/3 offers in the last week!

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 Thursday night in basketball and he has three picks ready to go for Saturday in a $23 2/3 offer! He is also a perfect 6-0 in the XFL and has football releases for Saturday & Sunday!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#626 Kent State -7 over Ohio 12:00 PM CT

Ohio has a top 100 road win at St. Bonaventure but that win was back on November 5. In MAC play the Bobcats are 1-4 on the road with only a two-point win at Eastern Michigan in a game that featured a big comeback and a massive free throw edge. Ohio enters this game off back-to-back wins but both games were at home against lesser MAC foes. Now back on the road the Bobcats could struggle having gone 4-7 through one of the weakest schedules in the MAC so far. Kent State is only 6-5 in MAC play but grades as a far better offensive performer through a difficult conference schedule so far. The Flashes are coming off back-to-back narrow losses and all five MAC defeats have come by single-digit margins as this team could easily have a stronger record. Kent State is 10-2 at home this season and is one of the best shooting teams in the conference, particularly from long range connecting at nearly 37 percent from 3-point range. The Flashes are also the best 2-point defense in the MAC as there should be clear advantages for the home team in this contest. Kent State has a veteran roster that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and the Flashes won both meetings last season while winning nine of the past 12 in this series. Ohio last won at Kent State in 2014 and home court should hold again.

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The Big Dog Bobby Dalton has a huge day lined up with Early and Evening 3-game offers in college basketball. His early package includes a 10* Best Bet (10-1 run in basketball 10* picks since Jan. 22).

Dalton is also on an 11-0 football run in sides and totals including a 2-0 start in XFL – his first 10* Best Bet goes today!

Big E won 20* picks Wednesday and Thursday and is 11-5 in 15* and higher selections this season! Big E has a big play in the Big Ten scheduled for Saturday!

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#840 Texas A&M +6 over Florida 7:30 PM CT

Many pegged Florida for national contention this season but the Gators have lost nine games while going only 6-4 in SEC play. Florida did beat Auburn but that is the only top 45 win of the season. Florida is 2-5 on the road this season and this will be a second straight road test after losing badly at Ole Miss over the weekend. Texas A&M has struggled to just 11-11 this season but this is a .500 team in SEC play in a transition season under Buzz Williams. The home loss to LSU came in overtime and the defense has offered some promise for the Aggies, grading as the second best defensive efficiency team in the conference. The offense has problems but Aggies have good size leading to good offensive rebounding numbers. Florida also rates as one of the worst defensive teams in the conference as the opportunity to best the season averages will be there. The Aggies create turnovers at a high rate on defense and have had some bad luck with SEC foes connecting at nearly 78 percent on free throws against them.

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Nelly’s Free Saturday Pick

#786 Syracuse +7 over Duke 7:00 PM CT

The past five meetings with Duke for Syracuse have featured a win and three single-digit losses as the Orange have played the Blue Devils tough in recent years. Syracuse is coming off a one-point road loss on Tuesday at Clemson but will have an opportunity to bounce back in a big way on Saturday in this marquee home game. Syracuse has lost four home games this season but the past two defeats came by a combined total of five points. This team has great offensive efficiency numbers despite the low-scoring pace and has a clear size edge defensively in the starting fives, particularly with Wendell Moore injured. Duke also lost its last road game at Clemson and the only ACC road wins were at Virginia Tech, at Miami, and at Georgia Tech as this will be the toughest ACC road game the young Blue Devils have faced. Duke’s ACC path grades as the 15th toughest slate out of 15 teams at this point in the season yet statistically Syracuse in a 6-4 ACC start has compared favorably with Duke. Syracuse is a top 5 ACC team on offense and defense in the ACC and has a 13 percent edge in free throw shooting while featuring a lower turnover rate. Duke could continue to climb up the ladder as a top ACC and national threat but the Blue Devils haven’t proven much in conference play so far and could be overpriced as a popular road favorite in the prime time slot.

Nelly’s is 7-0 since Tuesday and 15-2 the past 11 days for a huge finish to January. We’ve won every month this season and have a winning record in 12 of the past 15 months of February. Join us for Saturday’s 2/3 offer for $25 or consider playing for all 29 days of February for only $199.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#702 San Francisco +4 over BYU 5:00 PM CT

14-7 San Francisco is 0-2 vs. Saint Mary’s in a 3-3 WCC start but both games vs. the Gaels were close while every non-conference loss came in a competitive game as well. All three home defeats have been top 100 caliber results and there is a lot to like about the offensive numbers for the Dons with strong shooting numbers all over the floor. Half of BYU’s losses this season have been overtime games but the only road win in the past two months came Thursday at Pacific. BYU is now drawing a third-consecutive road game on Saturday and a Cougars team reliant on 3-point shooting will face one of the top 3-point defenses in the WCC. San Francisco looks likely to dominate the rebounding in this game and have great interior scoring opportunities with some clear size advantages in this contest. Home wins over Yale, Southern Illinois, Sam Houston State, California, and Santa Clara provide support of a quality edge at War Memorial and the Dons won both meetings with BYU last season. A pair of huge home games are lined up next week for BYU making this a challenging spot on the schedule for the Cougars to be in top form, having scored 69 and 74 in the past two road games after scoring in the 90s in the past two home games for a clear contrast.  

Nelly’s has won five straight college basketball picks for a big late January gain! Don’t miss three big plays Saturday in our 2/3 offer for only $25!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#365 Appalachian State +2.5 over North Carolina 2:30 PM CT

The Tar Heels weren’t far from a third straight underdog comeback win as they rallied from a 21-0 deficit and had the ball late down six last week in prime time vs. Wake Forest. That was following stunning wins over South Carolina and Miami in the first two weeks. The Tar Heels could continue a run of competitive exciting games with a suspect defense and an erratic young offense but laying points may be discouraged with Mack Brown’s squad.

Appalachian State has impressed on offense with 98 points in two weeks as Eliah Drinkwitz is living up to his billing as a great offensive coach in the making. Getting a chance to face the Tar Heels for the first time in many years will be alluring, especially off a bye week. This was a circled game for us several weeks ago but the projected spread of +8.5 did not become reality and the oddsmakers clearly marked their ground on this game with an opener of only +4.5. Now down to only +2.5 the Mountaineers are still certainly the preference but not more than a Free Play recommendation.

Nelly’s had a huge weekend last week going 3-0-1 Saturday and 3-0 Sunday for huge gains. It has been a great September so far and this week we have our first 3* Top Play of the season plus college and pro 2/3 offers.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#929/930 ‘OVER 10’ New York Mets (Matz) at Minnesota Twins (Pineda) 7:10 PM CT

Michael Pineda has allowed just one run in four of his last five starts to best his season line that features a 4.56 ERA. His walk rate has been extremely low this season but he has been victim to 16 home runs in 17 starts. Pineda hasn’t shown a big preference for pitching at Target Field and right-handed hitters have pretty strong numbers against him. Steven Matz simply hasn’t developed into the quality starter the Mets thought they had when he broke into the league in 2015 and 2016. Matz is 12-24 the past three seasons with a 4.68 ERA and he was removed from the rotation in early July after a run of lousy outings, allowing 24 runs over his last five starts. He didn’t fare any better as a reliever allowing two runs in just over two innings and he now has to face a lineup with an .868 season OPS vs. left-handed pitchers while Matz owns a 7.07 road ERA on the season. Minnesota took two of three from Cleveland to start the second half in a huge series and while Minnesota hasn’t matched its amazing May pace in recent weeks the scoring remains strong, averaging 5.3 runs per game since June started and leading baseball in home runs. The ‘over’ is 28-17 in Mets road games and while Target Field has averaged only 9.1 runs per game, the summer weather is much more conducive to scoring after some cold weather games the first two months brought the average down. New York also owns a 5.55 bullpen ERA on the season. These teams split two games in April with a combined 37 runs despite better pitchers in both games on both sides. While the Mets have been a dysfunctional group that has slipped out of the NL wild card race, the offense has plenty of promise and has a steady .771 team OPS the past 20 games, hitting 31 home runs in that span. The Mets have scored at least three runs in 11 consecutive road games and Twins pitching has allowed four or more runs in 12 of the past 16 games. It is hot and humid in Minneapolis with the wind blowing a bit out to right and while at first glance a double-digit total at Target Field seems high, it can be justified with two shaky starters and struggling bullpens as well as home run power throughout both lineups.

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Free MLB Pick May 8

#972 Detroit Tigers (Boyd) -115 over Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) 6:10 PM CT

Matt Boyd has shown flashes of greatness in his MLB climb the past three years but this season he has put it all together to emerge as one of the AL’s top pitchers. Detroit lacks a great offense behind him but Boyd has posted a 3.05 ERA and actually a 2.10 FIP that is the strongest in the entire American League by a wide margin. His 11.6 K/9 is also among the best strikeout rates in the league and he had accomplished that rate with a very low walk rate. Boyd had had to pitch at Fenway and at Yankee Stadium this season as it has been a difficult path and he is riding six consecutive quality starts since a marginal first outing in late March.

The Angels have been competitive this season but the offensive numbers fall off a cliff vs. left-handers with a .631 team OPS vs. southpaws, the fifth worst mark in MLB compared to a very strong .774 team OPS vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly the Angels are 13-10 vs. right-handed starters but only 3-9 vs. left-handers. Detroit has been one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball but the Tigers are a winning team at Comerica Park where Boyd has posted even stronger numbers. The Tigers are also a much better hitting vs. left-handers with a jump of 28 points in team OPS.

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Tyler Skaggs looked like a breakout candidate in a shortened 2018 season but he hasn’t matched that pace this season even if his ERA is 3.12 in 26 innings this season. His strikeout rate has plummeted while his FIP of 4.22 is more indicative of his future path of mediocrity. In his five starts Skaggs has faced a bottom seven team in MLB in team OPS vs. left-handers four times as he has drawn a very favorable path and still has had marginal results. His road ERA is also nearly double his home ERA and the Angels are only 5-10 in road games on the season. Detroit’s bullpen has rough numbers of late but with decent starting efforts the past two games the unit should be in better shape for Wednesday night.

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#708 Brooklyn Nets +2 over Detroit Pistons 6:35 PM CT

Brooklyn is one of the more improved teams in the league and could eclipse last season’s win count by the end of the month. The Nets still check in with one of the lesser records in the league but they are a respectable 9-12 S/U at home and own an average scoring differential of only -2.2 per game.

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Only twice in the last 11 games have the Nets lost by more than four points and in the past three home games the Nets have played right with three of the league’s best teams, beating Minnesota by one, losing to Boston by two, and losing to Toronto by one.

Detroit is just 8-13 S/U on the road and while the Pistons are a playoff threat at 21-18 S/U on the season, the Pistons are 7-11 S/U since December 1. Brooklyn is one of the league’s best spread performers at 24-16 ATS on the season, going 20-11 ATS as an underdog, and 8-4 ATS as a home underdog. The Pistons are on a 15-26 ATS run in the road favorite role since February of 2014, going 2-7 in the last nine instances since last March.

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The Pistons are 2-9 ATS in this series since April of 2014 including losing ATS in all three meetings last season. This is a seventh straight game for Detroit requiring travel and a two-day break ahead of a big division game with the Bulls is next on the schedule for a team that has allowed triple-digit scoring in five straight road games.

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Nelly’s is 20-8 in the NBA season and 31-18 overall since December 3 including a 5-1 run since Saturday. Don’t miss Wednesday offers from Nelly’s and our featured handicappers. Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet in college basketball Wednesday, winning a 10* Tuesday to reach 6-1 on the season. Dalton is 16-8 overall in college basketball since December 1. Big E won a 20* last night in the MAC and is 13-5 in his last 18 picks