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Free Pick Saturday

#368 Washington +3 over Oregon 2:30 PM CT

Oregon won a thriller last season at home in this matchup, getting six in overtime for an upset of then #7 Washington. At 5-1 the Ducks looked headed for the Pac-12 title last season but they lost three of the next four. Washington only has two S/U wins and three ATS wins in the past 15 meetings since 2004 but the Huskies are a very serious threat this week to spoil any remaining national hopes for Oregon, while potentially opening back up the Pac-12 North race. Both teams won convincingly last week ahead of this big matchup that could again play a major role in the Pac-12 North race. Oregon had a closer game with Colorado than it looked Friday with a couple of a huge swing plays before halftime while Washington caught some turnover breaks to pull away in Tucson, but still is one of the best two-loss teams there is. The Ducks are often good for an occasional blowout to pad the stats but in closely-lined games Oregon is on a 5-13-1 ATS run since 2016 in games with a spread between +7 and -7. Mario Cristobal doesn’t have nearly the credentials of Chris Petersen who hasn’t been a home underdog since his first season at Washington in 2014 while the Huskies are 22-2 S/U at home since 2016. Had this line pushed to +3.5 it likely would have made our card but Washington is still worth a look as Saturday’s Free Play.

Nelly’s has a rare 3* top play today (53-35 run), Bobby Dalton has a 15* Best Bet, Point Train an early 6-unit Total, Big E has his next 20* Conference GOY, while Maximum has a big 8pack today!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#347 Oregon State +6 over UCLA 8:00 PM CT

Oregon State has clearly made a lot of progress to close the gap in the Pac-12 but ultimately three competitive losses vs. quality teams still add up to 1-3. The Beavers made a great late rally hosting Stanford last week and this game will be another winnable opportunity vs. a struggling UCLA game off back-to-back close finishes to start the conference season. Surprisingly Oregon State has won two of the past four visits to the Rose Bowl while UCLA is on an 8-16 ATS run as a home favorite since 2014.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson was injured last week late in a productive showing after a leg injury, replaced by sophomore Austin Burton who did give the Bruins a chance at tying field goal on the final drive. A big edge in the rushing potential certainly looks possible for the road underdog, averaging 5.3 yards per carry compared to only 2.7 for UCLA, 119th nationally. This line immediately fell from an opener of +8.5 to take it off our radar as a rated pick but the Beavers are still worth a look as Saturday’s free pick with another competitive effort in store.

Nelly’s has 2/3 offers in both NCAA & NFL action for this weekend – $25 each. We’ve won our NFL 2/3 three consecutive weeks, hitting 67% on the season in pro football while 7-1 in NFL 2* side plays!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#365 Appalachian State +2.5 over North Carolina 2:30 PM CT

The Tar Heels weren’t far from a third straight underdog comeback win as they rallied from a 21-0 deficit and had the ball late down six last week in prime time vs. Wake Forest. That was following stunning wins over South Carolina and Miami in the first two weeks. The Tar Heels could continue a run of competitive exciting games with a suspect defense and an erratic young offense but laying points may be discouraged with Mack Brown’s squad.

Appalachian State has impressed on offense with 98 points in two weeks as Eliah Drinkwitz is living up to his billing as a great offensive coach in the making. Getting a chance to face the Tar Heels for the first time in many years will be alluring, especially off a bye week. This was a circled game for us several weeks ago but the projected spread of +8.5 did not become reality and the oddsmakers clearly marked their ground on this game with an opener of only +4.5. Now down to only +2.5 the Mountaineers are still certainly the preference but not more than a Free Play recommendation.

Nelly’s had a huge weekend last week going 3-0-1 Saturday and 3-0 Sunday for huge gains. It has been a great September so far and this week we have our first 3* Top Play of the season plus college and pro 2/3 offers.

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Point Train Free Pick

#317 Syracuse +1.5 over Maryland 11:00 AM CT

This is rare game with both teams coming off shutout wins. While Maryland scored more than three times as many points as Syracuse in its shutout win last week, they did so vs. FCS Howard, a team that won four games last season and also lost by 40 to Kent State last year. Shutting out Liberty might not sound impressive, but the Flames won six games last season and are an FBS squad that has quickly risen to a respectable level, bringing back a veteran quarterback with great experience on both sides of the ball. Liberty is playing an independent schedule but will be a threat to make the program’s first bowl game by season’s end. Tommy DeVito has big shoes to fill replacing Eric Dungey but he played in six games last season including leading wins over North Carolina and Florida State when he was a freshman. DeVito didn’t play well in the opener but the Orange running game provided three touchdowns and nearly 200 yards and Syracuse is poised to have its best defense in many years. The Orange held Liberty to negative rushing yards and held senior quarterback Steven Calvert to one of his worst career games. Syracuse has a season-making game with Clemson up next, a team they beat two years ago in the Carrier Dome and had on the ropes last season. That has led many to flock to Maryland this week but in six years as an ACC team Syracuse is 5-1 S/U in the game prior to facing Clemson. Mike Locksley is 1-0 at Maryland but his career 4-31 record as a head coach Is hard to ignore, even with this spread flipping after Syracuse opened as a slight favorite. Josh Jackson is two years removed form his fine 2017 season at Virginia Tech and Maryland lost three home games last season while allowing 29 points per game overall. Last week’s shutout was certainly looks likely to be the only zero that the Maryland defense will put up this season returning the fifth least experience in the Big Ten. Syracuse was unquestionably the second best team in the ACC last season yet the team is getting minimal respect coming off a 10-win season and with Dino Babers 56-35 in his career, quickly providing success at three programs.

Point Train was a winner with the UNDER last night in the NFL opener, an convincing 10-3 result! Another TOTAL is lined up on the Friday college football schedule for $19.97 – pay after you win!

Point Train’s first 5-unit pick of the season is also on its way for Saturday night in a big prime time TV game!

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Free Point Train Pick

Saturday #211 New Mexico State +31.5 @ Washington State 10:00 PM Eastern

If you’ve dealt with us in the past you know we prefer ‘ugly’ teams over the media darlings. With that said, we like New Mexico State plus the points over Washington State. Last season the Cougars were 11-2 ATS and have a two-year record of 18-8 ATS at the betting window. That success doesn’t go un-noticed by the oddsmakers so there is an immediate correction in the opening numbers this season. Conversely, the Aggies were a dismal 2-9-1 ATS last season and cost anyone that bet them on a regular basis a lot of money last season. WSU had the best spread record in college football last year, but fifteen teams had a better average margin of victory than the Cougs. Washington State had a decent average margin of victory of +14.2PPG last year, but it came against the 50th ranked schedule.

Washington State had just two wins last year that were by more than the spread on their opener this season. New Mexico State struggled last season with a 2-9-1 spread record, but their average loss margin was 16.1PPG and they only lost by 34 or more points three times. New Mexico State returns 30 letter winners with 8 starters on offense back and 6 defensive starters. Two years ago, this team was 7-6 SU with a Bowl Win to end their season. The Aggies had a negative point differential of just -.4PPG and an offense that was 45th in the nation in yards per play at +5.7, while averaging 29.3PPG. With experience back at quarterback, a solid O-line along with plenty of depth defensively this Doug Martin coached team will be much better than they were a season ago. Washington State does return a bevy of talent from last year’s team with 39 lettermen, 7 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters but they are clearly over-priced here. Our computer analytics on this game have the Cougars favored by 26.9-points. We take the pooch and the points! Bet on New Mexico State!

2018 Best ATS teams in college football: Washington State 11-2, Utah State 10-3, Florida International 10-3, Syracuse 9-3-1, Troy 9-3-1, Fresno State 10-4, UAB 10-4

2018 Worst ATS teams in college football: Michigan St 4-9, Wisconsin 4-9, North Texas 4-9, W Michigan 4-9, S Florida 4-9, Mississippi 3-9, San Diego St 3-10, Georgia State 2-9-1, N Mexico St 2-9-1, UConn 2-9-1, Louisville 1-11

Point Train is off to a 3-1 start to the football season and has two big plays ready to go for Saturday’s schedule!

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Free Pick Thursday

1st Half: #139 Texas State +20.5 over Texas A&M 7:30 PM CT

Jimbo Fisher will be looking to get to 1-0 without a major exertion this week knowing that a season-making game with Clemson is on deck. Texas State was 3-9 in 2018 but actually only allowed six first quarter offensive touchdowns all season. This the most experienced team in the Sun Belt and Jake Spatival will bring a more aggressive approach to the offense, going back to a campus where he was an assistant for three years earlier in his career.

Expect the potential for a big play or two from the Bobcats early in this contest while Texas A&M will hope to offer conventional looks and play-calling to leave the top ranked Tigers will little meaningful film to dissect this week. The halftime spread priced just below the three touchdown threshold is certainly intentional and presumably enticing for many in a matchup where the Bobcats aren’t likely to draw a lot of support.

While at Florida State Jimbo Fisher beat Texas State 59-16 to open the 2015 season but it was only 21-10 at halftime and Fisher is just 2-4 ATS in home openers the past six years with last year’s win coming against FCS competition.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#961/962 ‘UNDER 10.5’ Boston Red Sox (Rodriguez) at Cleveland Indians (Plesac) 6:10 PM CT

In his last 14 starts Eduardo Rodriguez is 9-2 with a 3.36 ERA, posting good strikeout numbers and pitching nearly as well on the road. Zach Plesac doesn’t have the strikeout potential of his rotation mates but he has been effective with a 3.13 ERA on the season. He pitched well against Boston in his MLB debut and while he has benefitted from weak opposition in many of his starts he has provided a capable path to the great Cleveland bullpen. Yesterday Cleveland won 7-3 but they were inches away from losing 4-3 and the game was 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. The Indians are on a 43-18 run since the start of June but few of those results came vs. quality teams with the Indians 21-25 vs. above .500 squads on the season. Cleveland owns a great record vs. left-handed starters but only a .736 team OPS vs. southpaws as they have benefitted from several Detroit and Kansas City left-handers to boost that win count, ultimately going 22-7 vs. those teams this season. Rodriguez is an above average starter and the Boston bullpen has steadied with a 3.60 ERA the past 10 games. Cleveland home games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season with a sharp lean to the ‘under’ in all Indians games and the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Cleveland home games with a total of 10.5 or higher.

Don’t miss a Nelly’s Baseball 2-for-1 offer for $15 Monday night!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#954 Miami Marlins (Smith) + over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly) 6:10 PM CT

There is a lot to like about Caleb Smith’s season line for the Marlins as the former Yankees draft pick has a 3.30 ERA in 90 innings. His 11.0 K/9 would be one of the top marks in the NL if he qualified and having a winning record pitching for the NL’s worst team is no small feat. Take away a disastrous start to the season the Marlins have been fairly competitive however, going 30-32 since mid-May and they enter this series finale having won four of the past five games, beating Arizona both Friday and Sunday. A big part of the turnaround has been consistent starting pitching with longer outings boosting the bullpen as the offense remains limited. Arizona prefers to face left-handers but facing a lefty of Smith’s caliber isn’t a routine assignment. At exactly .500 the Diamondbacks will be worth monitoring as the trade deadline approaches as this team was a buyer last season before a September crash and again going all-in for a shot a wild card game in a crowded NL picture isn’t likely. Arizona is 15-19 since mid-June and the lineup has been ice cold hitting .209 the past five games with a .633 OPS. 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has provided average results this season and he has struggled on the road with a 4.68 ERA. Kelly has zero wins in his past seven starts and can be vulnerable to the home run. Arizona has a 5.19 ERA in the bullpen the past 10 games as well as the Diamondbacks look like a risky favorite on the road Monday night.

Nelly’s has a guaranteed NL side play tonight for just $15. Consider joining up for all of August baseball!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

Bobby Dalton has a guaranteed 10* total for Friday night – $19.99 pay after you win with a bonus 5* included.

Nelly’s has offered a 2/3 offer in MLB just twice this season – going 6-0 on those picks. Get three picks tonight as we try to do it again 2/3 for Friday for just $25!

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 9’ Cleveland Indians (Bieber) at Texas Rangers (Minor) 1:05 PM CT

After dazzling in several starts late last season Shane Bieber carried high expectations in 2019 and that weight has grown with the injuries in the rotation for the Indians. Bieber has a decent 3.92 ERA but with a 3.30 xFIP and an amazing 11.4 K/9 this is clearly one of the AL’s very best starting pitchers. Bieber has allowed five or more runs three times in his last seven starts but his home and road splits are similar and he has also had eight starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. Mike Minor has overachieved with a 2.63 ERA next to a 4.02 xFIP but the strikeout numbers are there and Minor continues to provide reliable outcomes for the surprising Rangers. In each of his last 10 starts he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed and he has allowed an average of barely over one home run per nine innings, no small feat in Arlington. Minor has thrived at home with a 2.18 ERA and he has equally impressive splits vs. right-handers and left-handers. Cleveland has put up big numbers the past two days in this series but they got 10 runs last night on only 12 hits, fortunate to earn seven two-out RBI. It will be warm in Arlington with conditions that can favor offense but these are two elite AL starters and on an early start getaway game the number could be kept in check.

Join Nelly’s for an AL side play Thursday night for $15 or play the rest of June for $99. We’ve struggled the first two months this season but with four straight profitable MLB seasons, odds are a big run is ahead this summer, don’t miss out!

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night and he guarantees to deliver a TOTAL winner for Thursday night – just $12 pay after you win!