This selection is taken from Issue #12 of Nelly’s Green Sheet Newsletter.
#352 Louisiana Tech -14.5 over UTEP 6:30 PM CT
LAST MEETING: 2019 Louisiana Tech (-17½) 42 UTEP 21
SERIES HISTORY: Louisiana Tech is 11-1 S/U & 5-6 ATS since 1991
This is the first conference game for UTEP with the Miners holding a 3-1 record, besting the combined wins for the program over the previous three seasons combined. Two wins came narrowly vs. FCS competition and this figures to be quite a step up. Louisiana Tech hasn’t impressed however as the 2-1 start includes a one-point win and allowing 38 points in a FCS win. In primetime with a big opportunity last Friday the Bulldogs were blown out by BYU. UTEP got its only win in this series back in 2004 in the Miners last season in the WAC. UTEP has scored at least 21 points in the past three defeats in this series however for relatively competitive performances, though last season UTEP had two touchdowns and nearly half of the team’s yardage for the game in the final 10 minutes after falling behind 42-7. The offensive numbers look promising for Louisiana Tech with 10 touchdown throws already for Luke Anthony but the defense seems likely to keep most teams in every game. The ‘over’ might have some appeal as these are two of the five worst teams in the nation in the current small sample size in yards per play defense at 7.1 and 7.2 respectively, joined in the bottom five by major conference powers TCU, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. LA TECH BY 17
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Maximum Sports looks to build on a 12-5 NFL Record including 7-0 in 5* picks with his Sunday 6-Pack for $30
Point Train went 3-0 Saturday and will look to do it again Sunday with a 3-Game Package!
SUNDAY NFL FREE PICK
#261 Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over Houston Texans 12:00 PM CT
The Texans were in command at Pittsburgh with three first half touchdowns but then were shutout in the second half to fall to 0-3. Houston has faced arguably the best three teams in the AFC and shouldn’t be ruled out as a team that can put together a decent season.
A winless Vikings team provides a better opportunity, but Minnesota certainly could have won last week. Justin Jefferson’s breakout game was wasted as Minnesota posted 7.5 yards per play on offense but still did not win. The Vikings rushed for 226 yards on 6.8 yards per rush but struggled on third downs and had a costly missed field goal. Minnesota’s once feared defense only is ahead of Atlanta in defensive scoring this season.
The Vikings are a top five offensive team posting 6.5 yards per play this season however as the Vikings have hopes for a turnaround as well. The shutdown of Minnesota facilities provided a scare early in the week but the Vikings should be at full strength while still catching more than a field goal in this game.
As worked out on Thursday night, in Game 4 matchups of winless teams, the road team is the preference with a 10-4-1 ATS mark going back to 1983. Mike Zimmer has a brilliant record off a loss in his career and the Vikings did enough to cover last week vs. Houston’s superior division rival.
Playoff Baseball continues while the NBA Finals resume tonight. There is college football to start off October while the big weekend football schedule awaits.
Bobby Dalton has a NBA FINALS selection for only $10 Friday while Nelly’s is involved in Playoff Baseball tonight $15.
The Friday night college game isn’t much more appealing than last night’s NFL contest but here is our analysis from Green Sheet Issue #11. Our Rating 5 Key Selections are 3-0 in the newsletter this season!
Free Pick from the Green Sheet: #103 Louisiana Tech +24.5 over BYU 8:00 PM CT
BYU has outscored foes 103-10 and both games were against FBS teams that were at least expected to be reasonably competitive. The defense has dominated an option rushing attack and an up-tempo spread passing attack to show great versatility. Zach Wilson has completed 78 percent of his passes as well. Louisiana Tech’s 2-0 start has been much less impressive, squeaking by Southern Miss while allowing 38 points vs. FCS competition last week. Since his second season in 2014, Skip Holtz is 20-8 ATS as an underdog at Louisiana Tech and this will be the largest spread in that time since playing at Auburn and at Oklahoma in 2014, both ATS wins. Luke Anthony is a first year starter at LT but started the past two seasons at Abilene Christian and has been productive for the Bulldogs. Given the massive blowout wins in highly visible time slots for BYU and now playing in a standalone spot Friday night, this spread will climb too high. BYU was 0-2 ATS as a heavy favorite last season and this spread is similar to recent Cougars prices vs. McNeese State and New Mexico State. Louisiana Tech won 10 games last season and will again contend in C-USA.
Several football packages are available already for the weekend including Big E’s next 20* Conference Game of the Year – this week in the Big XII. He won his 20* in the ACC earlier this season and is 2-0 in 15* & higher picks this season. Big E also has 10* Biggies for Saturday & Sunday, plus his Top 5 Ticket which is 10-5 this season!
Maximum Sports is 14-8 this football season with huge returns in the NFL at 12-5 including 7-0 in his higher rated 5* picks. Maximum likes the Week 4 schedule so much he has SIX PICKS in his NFL 6-PACK for $30 for Sunday!
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Point Train has posted a 3-Pack for college football including a 5-unit!
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Point Train also won Thursday night to start week 3 and has a 3-Pack of picks with two totals for Sunday!
The Big E is featuring his first 15* of the NFL Season with his September Game of the Month for $15.94!
Maximum Sports is 9-3 in the NFL with back-to-back 4-1 Sundays and a 2-0 record on Monday Nights. Get his 60% Guarantee for Sunday with five selections, looking to add to a 5-0 record in his higher rated 5* picks!
FREE PICK FROM THE GREEN SHEET NEWSLETTER:
#463 LA Rams +2 over Buffalo Bills 12:00 PM CT
One of these squads will leave week 3 with a 3-0 record. Many saw big things ahead for Buffalo but the path for the Bills in the first two weeks was certainly favorable. The Rams have been one of the NFC’s top teams the past three years but were a bit of an afterthought in the loaded NFC West for most. The wins for the Rams have come against high profile foes but both were also NFC East teams that struggled last season. Philadelphia took a depleted roster into last week’s game and turnovers helped the cause. Opponents have rushed successfully against the Rams but so far the Bills have allowed Josh Allen to throw, the current surprise leader in passing yards league-wide so far. The Rams will have to make the trip east in back-to-back weeks as the Covid situation didn’t allow the team to stay on the East coast following last week’s game in Philadelphia. The Rams have some injuries to work around this week but so far have been one of the most impressive performers of the season.
Below is a Free College Pick from this week’s Green Sheet Newsletter, get the issue plus five phone picks in our Half-Price Weekend Offer as we look to build on a terrific start to the season, 11-2 overall in our recommendations.
419 Florida -14 over Ole Miss 11 AM CT
LAST MEETING: 2015 @Florida (+7½) 38 Mississippi 10
SERIES HISTORY: Florida is 7-4 S/U & 5-6 ATS since 1980
A 38-10 Florida win in the last meeting isn’t a surprise but one does a double take seeing a home underdog price for the Gators. That was a matchup of 4-0 teams and Ole Miss was #3 in the nation. Despite being in the same conference, that is the only meeting between these schools since 2008. Lane Kiffin will be making his Oxford debut and he hasn’t announced how the snaps will be split between returning QBs Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee. Kyle Trask is back for the Gators filling in admirably last season and boosting the Florida offense. Florida also has several promising options to throw to and they will face a Ole Miss defense that was at the bottom of the SEC last season. Florida has some pieces to replace on defense but Dan Mullen has added a few transfers to complete the roster as it should be an above average even if not likely to match last season’s 14.4 points per game allowed pace. Florida should have an edge in the opener.
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FREE NFL PICK SUNDAY FROM THIS WEEK’s GREEN SHEET:
#280 Tennessee Titans -7.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 PM CT
The Jaguars dealt several stars in the weeks before the season but wound up victors in Week 1. Gardner Minshew had just one incomplete pass while throwing three touchdowns to lead a comeback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville was outgained 445-241 as it was a fortunate result but catching an extra day on the turnaround while the Titans are in Denver late Monday night is a favorable set-up. Tennessee barely won that game with four missed kicks from veteran Stephen Gostkowski to leave 10 points on the field. Derrick Henry compiled solid numbers as Tennessee moved the ball conservatively, posting only 4.8 yards per play. This is a rare favorite price for the Titans but Tennessee did produce several lopsided wins after Ryan Tannehill took over last season. Posting 26 first downs against a top tier defense last week was a solid result and the Titans will be less dependent on the passing game than the Colts had to be last week.
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#127 Texas State -3 over UL-Monroe 6:30 PM CT
Texas State went just 3-9 last season in a major transition season for Jake Spatival. The Bobcats are 0-2 already this season and the roster has faced challenges, needing to use two different quarterbacks already while also getting several players ruled out each week. Texas State is playing a third game in three weeks and this is the first road game of the season for the Bobcats who have impressed with improvement on offense despite still being winless. Losing by just seven vs. SMU Texas State put up 416 yards and were in a tight one-score game almost the entire way vs. a top AAC threat with a veteran quarterback. The Bobcats posted nearly 500 yards last week but lost in overtime with a 2-0 turnover deficit.
Either Tyler Vitt or Brady McBride is capable of leading this offense and Brock Sturges and Calvin Hill have offered early promise in the backfield. UL-Monroe lost 37-7 last week and it could have been worse with only one scoring drive allowed in the fourth quarter vs. Army. The defense was expected to struggle but the offense provided minimal production posting 1.9 yards per rush and completing only 16 passes. The Warhawks won by 10 in San Marcos last season but it was a three-point game until the final two minutes and Monroe no longer can lean on long-time starter Caleb Evans at QB.
In three seasons Colby Suits has a combined total of only 28 completions as he has limited live game experience in this offense. Texas State was a significant favorite last week and will again be laying points this week at a similar number, this time on the road. The Bobcats are actually 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 road games despite few S/U wins while Matt Viator’s team has nine S/U home losses in his four seasons with Monroe, going 5-16 ATS since taking over in 2016.
Nelly’s Football is off to a perfect start to the season with our rated picks at 5-0. Don’t miss our NFL 2/3 Offer for $25, a 3-0 sweep in Week 1 with three underdogs that each won outright. You can join Nelly’s for the next seven weeks of football service for $279.
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The Big Dog Bobby Dalton will be ready for another big week in the NFL this weekend having gone 3-0 in NFL Week 1. Dalton has posted a 7star for college football Saturday night!
UNDER 9 Texas Rangers (Minor) at Oakland Athletics (Fiers) 2:40 PM CT
Minor has lost both of his starts this season but his FIP of 3.36 sits well
below his 5.91 ERA, he has simply had terrible luck with nearly half of his
base runners coming around to score. Minor has been a reliable option for the
Rangers the past two seasons but he has struggled vs. Oakland allowing 17 runs
in three starts last season. The Athletics crushed left-handed pitching with an
.811 OPS in 2019 but the splits have gone the other way so far this season.
With five straight wins and 28 runs so far in August, Oakland is emerging as a
serious AL contender but the Coliseum remains a favorable pitching park. Mike Fiers
also had a FIP much lower than his 5.40 ERA and should have better luck with base
runners in upcoming starts. Fiers actually pitched quite well in his last three
starts of 2019 vs. the Rangers and last night’s 10-run output was quite
misleading. There were only 14 hits in the game and a combined seven at-bats
with runners in scoring position. Even with the loss the Rangers preserved its
bullpen last night while Burch Smith gave an extended relief outing to keep
Oakland with most top options available today. Last night’s total was just 8
and there isn’t significant reason to move today’s number a full run given a
pitching matchup that is of similar caliber, albeit with much less strikeout potential.
Both teams are outside MLB’s top 18 in team wOBA and strong walk rates for both
lineups aren’t likely to be a big factor in this pitching matchup.
Nelly’s Baseball has hit 60% in 2020 including three straight wins the past three days including a nice underdog win on the Blue Jays last night. Join us for a TOTAL for Thursday night for only $15!
Nelly’s has also hit 60% in the NBA Restart to build on great gains in the
2019-20 regular season. Check out tonight’s Basketball Pick as well or join for
Bobby Dalton has offers in MLB, NBA, and NHL action today – also check back for Horse Racing this weekend with the Big Dog!
Nelly’s was on a 10-1-1 NBA run at the Covid Break and we have restarted with a 3-1 record in our picks and opinions so far in Orlando action to close the regular season. We have a pick for DAYTIME NBA ACTION Monday with our next guaranteed selection! We are on pace for a third straight NBA Regular season hitting over 63%!
Nelly’s had a 60% July in MLB and we expect to deliver Monday night on the diamond with a $15 rated selection.
Bobby Dalton is stepping up with a big play on the diamond with a 10* MLB BEST BET tonight! He is 4-0 in 10* picks in the 2020 MLB season! Pay after you win with the Big Dog in a big division game on Monday!
Bobby Dalton also has NHL and NBA Picks for Monday as well!
Free NBA Pick for Monday:
#744 Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Denver Nuggets 3:00 PM CT
With a statement win over Utah to open the restart the Thunder are a team that is being overlooked in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is now relatively safe from falling to the #7 spot sitting three games ahead of Dallas and ultimately the quartet of Denver, Houston, Utah, and Oklahoma City are all likely to wind up in the 3/6 and 4/5 matchups. With no home court advantage to speak of there isn’t great urgency in the coming weeks for these teams. Denver is at risk to slide from its current #3 spot but the priority for the Nuggets is to get healthy for the playoffs, currently without Will Barton, Gary Harris, and likely still Jamal Murray, or in other words, without 45 points per game from three significant contributors. Andre Roberson is the only Thunder player on the injury report and his role has been diminished this season anyhow. The Thunder actually have a stronger season scoring differential than the Nuggets despite the gap in the standings and Oklahoma City at 20-11 has the second-best road record in the entire Western Conference behind only the Lakers. Denver meanwhile has had its success built on a favorable home court edge at altitude and is just 18-14 on the road this season. Already short-handed the Nuggets are facing a second game in three days after allowing 125 points to Miami on Saturday while for Oklahoma City this is a critical game knowing they have a very tough test ahead on Wednesday vs. the West leaders. The Nuggets and Thunder have split two meetings this season and while the injuries have pushed this line to an elevated favorite spread for a Thunder team that was just -1 in Oklahoma City in February, the unheralded Thunder have more at stake and clear personnel edges in the current formations of these teams.
Bobby Dalton has you covered for a HUGE sports Saturday – after a long layoff sports are back and this is the first big Saturday on the schedule. Dalton has offers in the NBA, MLB, NHL, and Horse Racing!
Check our his HORSE RACING selections at Monmouth, his home track. His first selection was in the money in 27 of 31 races last weekend!
Dalton is 2-0 in MLB 10* Best Bets this season – get his SATURDAY 10* PAY AFTER YOU WIN!
Nelly’s wrapped up a 60% July in MLB with an underdog winner Friday night – we are perfect on totals this season and have an over/under pick ready to go for Saturday night!
We have split our first two NBA restart picks with a brutal miss yesterday on the Celtics +5, a tie game into the final minutes before a controversial finish. We feel locked in even with the tough miss looking to build on an active 11-2-1 run and three straight regular seasons over 60%! Get Saturday’s Side Play for $15!
Free Pick Saturday:
#961 Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) + over Minnesota Twins (Maeda) 6:10 PM CT
This series for the top spot in the AL Central could continue to zig-zag with these teams splitting the first two games of the series. Scoring has been at a premium and more quality pitching should be on its way Saturday. Carlos Carrasco’s promising career was sidetracked last season but he looked like his peak self in his 2020 debut with 10 strikeouts in six innings as the pitching-rich Indians should be in a great position to take back the lead in the Central today. Carrasco was unfortunate in that start with a .385 BABIP but still effectively got the win. Yesterday’s 4-1 loss was a bit misleading as the Indians had plenty of men on base but faltered in some big at-bats while also getting some tough breaks with well hit balls being caught for huge outs. Minnesota used its top four options in the bullpen last night and two of those pitchers threw at least 19 pitches as there could be some wear if either is called on tonight. Kenta Maeda made a successful Twins debut in Chicago but there were some red flags in his numbers last season, including a .243 BABIP to help produce a still mediocre 4.04 ERA in 153+ innings. That was pitching with the Dodgers in a very favorable ballpark with plenty of support. Maeda gave up 22 home runs last season and isn’t the same caliber of strikeout pitcher that Carrasco can be. Even so this line has shifted back to the Twins as a slight favorite after Cleveland was favored on Friday and it will again make sense to take the favorable price with the adjustment. As was the case Thursday, Cleveland has the much higher ceiling starter on the mound yet is the underdog in what may continue to be a back-and-forth series. As formidable as Minnesota’s lineup is, Josh Donaldson will likely sit today and after the big first series, the Twins have scored only seven runs the past three games.