Tag: Free NFL Pick

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Free NFL Pick

#454 Buffalo Bills -10 over Washington Redskins 12:00 PM CT

In an opportunity to affirm itself as a playoff team the Bills failed miserably hosting the Eagles last week. The schedule remains very favorable as a double-digit win season still looks likely in Buffalo with this week’s game another great opportunity. Washington is off an extended week and the defense has played respectably the past two weeks holding San Francisco and Minnesota to only 28 combined points. Washington is adequate against the run and the Bills seem likely to be kicking field goals often as well. Turning to Dwayne Haskins to start could be a problem as Case Keenum avoided big mistakes against elite defenses to keep Washington in those games and Haskins hasn’t proven that capability. Against Buffalo’s quality defense a big play the other direction seems more than likely. Buffalo isn’t accustomed to this type of pricing but the number is sure to climb even further by kickoff.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#124 San Francisco 49ers +3 over Denver Broncos 3:05 PM CT

Denver has faced a difficult schedule this season while looking the part against some of the league’s top teams including wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Denver also lost to the Jets however and is is a challenging scheduling spot this week facing a third road game in four weeks and a second straight road contest after winning in Cincinnati last week. The Broncos caught a break on the schedule last week vs. the sinking Bengals drawing the first start from Jeff Driskel.

Denver won 24-10 but Cincinnati had three turnovers and 12 penalties. The Broncos had a solid edge on the ground but fewer first downs while losing the time of possession battle as well. 10 Denver points came on drives of just 33 and 7 yards as there was good fortune for the Broncos. This could be a dangerous game in San Francisco with the Broncos back in the playoff race and now a healthy road favorite for the second straight week. 2-10 San Francisco has a top 10 run defense and the 49ers have had some misleading results this season thanks to a NFL worst -20 turnover margin juggling three different quarterbacks and numerous injuries on offense.

The 49ers are also a top 10 rushing team as Denver isn’t likely to enjoy a big rushing edge in this matchup. San Francisco has out-rushed six of the past eight foes while out-gaining three of the last four foes by at least 97 yards. The 49ers are the more productive passing team with Denver posting only 6.8 yards per attempt and Denver actually allows a higher completion rate and more yards per attempt on defense than San Francisco despite the perception of these defenses. Emmanuel Sanders is also out of action to greatly limit Denver’s passing potential. Denver is on a 5-11 ATS run in road games and this could be the biggest road favorite spread since 2015 for the Broncos.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#267 Arizona Cardinals +15.5 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CT

This is the type of game where it will be dangerous to support a massive favorite with an 8-1 ATS record. The Chiefs continue to amaze but the defense gives up big yardage every week and this will be the biggest Chiefs favorite spread as far as our records go back to 1980.

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While there isn’t a lot to like about a 2-6 Cardinals team with a rookie quarterback on the road given the 23-point difference in scoring per game, the Cardinals have had two weeks to prepare for the matchup. Arizona has held most foes to lower scoring games and Josh Rosen has been arguably the most promising of the rookie quarterback class so far this season.

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Kansas City has a huge game next week in Mexico against the Rams ahead of a late Week 12 bye week as the scheduling spot has to produce some strain this week with next week’s international game certainly being dubbed a potential Super Bowl preview. NFL underdogs of 15 or more points are on a 29-23-1 ATS run since 2005 as well.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#461 Buffalo Bills +7 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM

Normally the drop-off between a rookie quarterback throwing for 139 yards per game and a veteran back-up wouldn’t be significant but Nathan Peterman has simply had disastrous results as a NFL quarterback. That has caused the Bills to bring in veteran Derek Anderson to start this week with the team having a hard time getting behind Peterman.

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Anderson was in Bills camp this summer and was with Carolina when Sean McDermott was an assistant for the Panthers as he should have a good comfort level in the system and will be able to have a productive outing while avoiding the major mistakes Peterman has been susceptible to. The Colts have a former pro bowl quarterback but the running game has been limited and the Colts are allowing 30 points per game in a 1-5 start. Indianapolis has played a tough schedule and is only -28 in scoring differential but the past four weeks the Bills have allowed just 60 points through a difficult schedule and the secondary has created a lot of turnovers.

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Indianapolis is playing up-tempo this season but without the offensive talent to avoid numerous mistakes, already with 13 turnovers on the season. The Colts haven’t been this big of a favorite since 2014 and this year’s 1-5 with a -28 scoring differential and a 0-2 record at home doesn’t look worthy of the price. Take out the first two weeks and the Bills are 2-2 with a nearly even scoring differential despite facing quality teams as Buffalo has not faced a team with a current losing record at this point in the season and the Bills have covered in two of the last three road games.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#260 Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over Detroit Lions 12:00 PM CT

Most expected Dallas to be a team back in the NFC race and a contender in the East against the Super Bowl champion Eagles. Injuries have taken a toll as the offensive line isn’t the force it has been the past two seasons while Dak Prescott hasn’t matched his results from the past two seasons. Dallas has drawn three quality defensive teams however and last week’s great performance notwithstanding, Detroit should be the worst defensive team on the Cowboys schedule in the first month.

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Detroit dominating New England Sunday night in a desperation spot and a mammoth contest for Matt Patricia has pushed the Cowboys to below a field goal as a home favorite in Week 4. The Lions are on a 20-34 S/U and a 21-32-1 ATS run in road games. Dallas is a slight home favorite despite the #3 total defense in the NFL through three weeks and the Cowboys have an elite pass defense which is critical against a Lions team that routinely struggles to run the ball.

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Dallas has surrendered only 6.6 yards per pass on the season while tied for second in the NFL with 11 sacks even though they haven’t picked up an interception yet. Dallas has also allowed only 3.4 yards per rush on the season as while the Cowboys may be limited on offense they likely don’t need a big number to win this game. Detroit has scored 70 points in three games and seven of those points came on defense while another 14 came late in the fourth quarter of a game that was already decided.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#260 Atlanta Falcons -10 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12:00 PM CT

Atlanta still looks like a serious NFC threat despite the marginal record as one of the top statistical teams in the NFL and delivering Monday night for a narrow win in Seattle that could wind up as a critical tiebreaker.

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Tampa Bay has been fortunate to win the past two weeks with limited production behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. The two quality teams Tampa Bay has faced on the road beat them by 17 and 20 respectively and backing one of the league’s worst rushing teams on the road is tough even if Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay won in Atlanta last season to add to the importance of this game for the Falcons and Tampa Bay has been out-gained by 339 yards in the last three games despite somehow winning two of those games vs. marginal AFC East teams.

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Atlanta is 1.4 yards superior in net yards per play in this matchup and the favorite has covered nine of the last 14 meetings between these division rivals. Given that the NFC South looks likely to down to the wire division wins will be critical and Atlanta is yet to pick up a NFC South win this season as they will not overlook the Buccaneers.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#263/264 ‘OVER 43’ Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM ET

Both offenses struggled last week but they were going up against elite defensive teams in the Steelers and Jaguars. The Colts allow 8.9 yards per pass attempt as the Bengals should be due for one of their best scoring opportunities of the season with the offense showing some recent life until last week’s effort in Pittsburgh.

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The Colts didn’t score last week but actually moved the ball reasonably well against a top passing defense playing from behind the whole game, botching a few second half scoring chances to get back in the game. Indianapolis has allowed 31.7 points per game on average and while it will be cold in Cincinnati early forecasts of rain have missed the mark with clear conditions Sunday.

After scoring just nine points in the first two weeks the Bengals have posted over 22 points per game the past four games and that is with facing above average defenses in the past three games. Indianapolis had scored more than 24 points per game in a four-week run prior to last week as well as both offenses should have better opportunities this week. The Bengals in particular should have some matchup edges with recent injuries in the Indianapolis secondary.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#471 Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over New York Giants 3:25 PM 

The banged up and winless Giants showed a lot of resolve last week with a huge win in Denver but big breaks went their way with a 3-0 turnover edge including a defensive score as New York managed just 266 yards of offense. Seattle remains an elite pass defense and the Week 6 bye might help the Seahawks navigate cross country travel a bit easier than in a normal scheduling situation.

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The run defense for Seattle is vulnerable but the Giants aren’t likely to repeat the big Sunday night performance as even with some modest success the past two weeks the Giants are gaining just 4.1 yards per carry. Much of the production last week came playing with the lead last week which hasn’t been the norm for the Giants.

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Seattle isn’t the elite NFC team of years past but turnovers look very possible for the Giants this week and one big play would likely be enough to put Seattle in a position to cover especially now with a deflated price. We’ll fade the line move and back the Seahawks favored by 10 fewer points than Denver was last week against this 1-5 Giants outfit.

The Giants have lost S/U in both home games this season and a defense that was very good last season has allowed 24 or more points in four of the past five games. Seattle isn’t the same team on the road but the Seahawks have faced a tough road schedule this season while still allowing only 20 points per game despite facing three excellent offensive teams.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#265/266 ‘OVER 43’ Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars 3:05 PM CT

The Jacksonville defense grabbed headlines last week holding Pittsburgh to nine points. Five turnovers created the success as a struggling Steelers offense still had 371 yards. In week 4 the Jets had 471 yards against Jacksonville while in the lone home game Tennessee had 37 points and 390 yards vs. the Jags as while the defense has created big plays but still have been .

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The Rams were held to 10 points last week but with 375 yards against Seattle as this remains a top offense. Jacksonville actually has the worst per carry run defense in the NFL allowing 5.4 yards per attempt as Todd Gurley could be in line for a big game on the ground against the Jaguars.

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The Rams are fifth in the NFL in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense as this is still one of the most productive teams in the league. The Rams could be vulnerable against Jacksonville’s strong rushing attack led by rookie Leonard Fournette. Los Angeles has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 134 yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns surrendered.

Wade Phillips has gone a good job against the pass leading the Rams on defense this season but with 27 or more points allowed in three of the past four games there is still work to be done. While the ground game may lead the way on both sides this week that doesn’t necessarily mean lower scoring and with a total below key numbers of 44 and 45 the ‘over’ opportunity is there on Sunday.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#264 Cleveland Browns +3 over Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CT

It isn’t a big surprise to see Cleveland as one of the 0-3 squads through three weeks but the Bengals had plenty of signs pointing towards a bounce-back season. Cincinnati was in position to deliver a great win in Green Bay last week but it melted away and hopes to get back to being a playoff threat are now limited.

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Andy Dalton is taking some heat but the running game has been very limited with rookie Joe Mixon a disappointment so far. After a very promising debut Deshone Kizer has struggled with turnovers the past two weeks. The ground game should favor Cleveland however with the Browns a very stout run defense, allowing just 3.1 yards per rush.

Kizer actually rates above Dalton in Total QBR with Cincinnati the second worst team in the NFL in total offense right now. Last week’s game was critical for the Bengals losing in demoralizing fashion could mean the writing is quite visible on the wall for the end of an era in Cincinnati.

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If Cleveland can clean up the turnovers this would look like a very competitive team while the Bengals are also -5 in turnovers but without the quality production potential.

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