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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) 6:05 PM CT

Vince Velasquez has posted a 1.99 ERA in four starts and a relief inning for the Phillies, helping the rotation greatly with the early season struggles of Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola. There are some big red flags for Velasquez however with his worst start his only home outing and an xFIP of 4.22. He has left 96 percent of his baserunners on base while posting a .228 BABIP. He has also made starts in Miami and at Citi Field for very favorable opportunities. Some light rain in possible in Philadelphia Tuesday but conditions shouldn’t be detrimental to offense and Philadelphia has scored 5.2 runs per game this season.

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The Phillies have struggled pitching however with 4.7 runs per game allowed and Citizens Bank Park has averaged 10.5 runs per game this season with the Phillies averaging 6.1 runs per game at home. This is the third city on the current road trip for the Tigers who are the AL’s lowest scoring team with only 91 runs. Detroit has averaged 4.9 runs per game over the past 10 contests, posting at least four runs in six of the past nine games and averaging 5.0 runs per game on this road trip.

Tyson Ross was scratched from this start but while Spencer Turnbull might look like a better option with a 2.77 ERA a 4.46 xFIP is a more realistic account. Turnbull hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts but he has also faced a light crop of opposing lineups this season. His 3.8 BB/9 is a concern and little in his career numbers suggests that his current pace is sustainable with Turnbull posting one career win and a 4.04 ERA in now just over 42 innings at the MLB level. Surrendering flyballs at a high rate against the Phillies in this ballpark can be problematic and the Detroit bullpen owns a 4.81 ERA on the season while Philadelphia hasn’t been much better as both bullpens feature a WHIP above 1.40. Over the past 10 games Detroit has a 8.37 bullpen ERA and with a double-header a week ago and several short starting efforts over the weekend the Tigers haven’t had much chance to recover even with an off day Monday.

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Bobby Dalton has gone 3-0 each of the past two days on the diamond – win again with his next TRIPS-2-WIN 2/3 offer for Tuesday night. Nelly’s MLB has had a forgettable April in a small sample but we expect to get an over/under winner in tonight and have turned in a profit in four consecutive MLB seasons.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Minnesota Twins (Stewart) 7:10 PM CT

Spencer Turnbull is a former first round pick and he is getting a look at the MLB level this September. He faced Minnesota last week and allowed six runs but on just six hits and his FIP is only 2.55 in his five MLB innings despite the high ERA. He hasn’t allowed a home run and has allowed just one walk.

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The Twins have a team OPS of just .718 over the past 24 games, down to .670 over the past four games. The Twins and Tigers have averaged just 8.5 runs per game in 16 meetings and cold Autumn conditions are expected in Minneapolis tonight. In 10 of the last 14 games Detroit has scored four or fewer runs and the Tigers have a .670 team OPS the past two weeks, averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

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Kohl Stewart has offered great promise for the Twins down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA in seven appearances, never allowing more than three runs. He pitched six innings with only one unearned run and three hits allowed vs. the Tigers last week and the team’s top pick in the 2013 draft has great potential. In favorable pitching conditions both young arms should have success against marginal lineups Tuesday night.

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Don’t miss Bobby Dalton’s 15* Best Bet Tuesday night in the final week of the MLB regular season! Dalton has won three 10* picks in a row and is 3-1 on 15* picks this baseball season! Get the pick on its own ($39.99) or as part of a guaranteed profit HIGH FIVE offer ($49.99).

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#953/954 ‘OVER 9.5’ Pittsburgh Pirates (Archer) at Colorado Rockies (Marquez) 2:10 PM CT

German Marquez has been a steady pitcher in the rotation for the Rockies but at home he owns a 6.63 ERA in over 55 innings of work. Foes have batted .303 against him at Coor’s Field with a .913 OPS. Marquez is on a nice six-start run since late June but four of six games came on the road including pitching in a few favorable ballparks. In six of his last 11 starts he has still allowed four or more runs and Pittsburgh has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball in the last month.

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In the past 22 games the Pirates have an .809 team OPS with 5.3 runs scored per game. Pittsburgh has scored at least five runs 13 times in the past 19 games Colorado has allowed 5.1 runs per game so far in August after the pitching staff had a great month of July to climb back in the NL race. In home games the Rockies own a 5.62 bullpen ERA and Marquez has been a high risk pitcher in Denver.

Pittsburgh has a 5.00 bullpen ERA on the road this season and the Pittsburgh debut for Chris Archer was similar to how he has pitched all season, allowing five runs in just over four innings of work. Archer can generate strikeouts but his season ERA is 4.40 and he hasn’t been much more than a league-average pitcher the past three seasons. Left-handers have hit Archer hard this season and Colorado had quality lefties in four of the top seven spots in the lineup last night. Archer also only has pitched at Coor’s Field once, a ballpark averaging 10.6 runs per game on the season.

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Nelly’s Baseball had a winner in interleague action last night – don’t miss Wednesday’s evening selection. Bobby Dalton won his 3/5 offer Tuesday and is featuring a 10* Best Bet for Wednesday night.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#973 Pittsburgh Pirates (Taillon) +195 over Cleveland Indians (Bauer) 12:10 PM CT

The Pirates can’t be counted out of the NL Central race just yet, now winners of 11 in a row to sit four games above .500 and just six games behind the Cubs for the division lead while only three games out of a tie for the final wild card spot. Pittsburgh is 13-1 since July 8 led by great production at the plate and elite numbers in the bullpen. Pittsburgh has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of the last 15 games while scoring at least six runs in eight of the past nine games. Adding a DH in AL parks has helped immensely with Pittsburgh 12-2 in interleague play and over the past 10 games the Pirates have a .962 team OPS while batting .345 with 9.0 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching. Trevor Bauer is one of the best right-handers in baseball but the Pirates dominated Corey Kluber and Shane Bieber the past two nights. Bauer only has eight wins and his xFIP is almost a run higher than his ERA His first start after the All Star game was rocky with four runs allowed in four innings. The Indians have great offensive numbers overall but they have been a team of extremes with many all-or-nothing games. Jameson Taillon has dominated in his last two starts and he has gone 10 consecutive starts without allowing more than three runs, posting a 2.95 FIP in that span with a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being a better pitcher on the road this season. A couple reserves starting this game for the Pirates sends this line upward but the red hot Pirates may still be worth a look as Taillon hasn’t needed great support of late and the late inning bullpen edge is firmly with Pittsburgh.

Nelly’s has a NL Contender Clash pick today for just $15 on a 33-23 run. Bobby Dalton went 4-1 yesterday and he has a 10* Best Bet tonight for $24.99!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 7.5’ Oakland Athletics (Manaea) at Houston Astros (Verlander) 7:10 PM CT

Justin Verlander’s Cy Young pace has certainly eroded in recent starts. While his 2.15 ERA is still an impressive mark with over 125 innings under his belt his xFIP is 3.51 as more regression could be coming. Verlander has allowed three or more runs in four of his last six starts and while his strikeout and walk rates remain among the AL’s best he has been victim to seven home runs allowed in those last six starts. Oakland hit two home runs against Verlander less than a month ago and the Houston right-hander has slightly worse numbers at Minute Maid Park this season.

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Sean Manaea had a dominant April with a no-hitter and while it has been a steady season for the left-hander leading the surprisingly competitive Athletics he has mostly had average results. His 3.33 ERA is overshadowed by a 4.35 FIP and his 6.2 K/9 isn’t threatening. Take out six excellent starts in April and his ERA is 4.76 with a 5.08 FIP and just a 5.3 K/9. The Astros beat Manaea in May and Oakland’s bullpen has displayed some recent wear with a 4.50 ERA the past 10 games.

There are red hot offensive teams with Oak;land 22-12 since June started while averaging more than 5.1 runs per game. On the season Oakland has shown a great preference for facing right-handed pitching and over the past 24 games the Athletics have a solid .789 team OPS with 1.7 home runs per game and 5.3 runs per game. Houston has scored 5.7 runs per nine vs. left-handers the past 10 games while posting a .812 team OPS the past 25 games, averaging 5.3 runs per game.

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Minute Maid Park has been surprisingly low scoring this season but with two quality starters on the mound this is a low number particularly with last night’s 2-0 result. Top relievers were burned yesterday in a game that featured just one hit with runners in scoring position. In 10 games between these teams there has been 100 combined runs as a bounce back for both offenses looks likely Tuesday.

Nelly’s hit an underdog last night now 28-17 since May 28 – get Tuesday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has a 10* side and a 5* total tonight for just $19.99 – Dalton is on a 17-10 Best Bet run while on a 54-36 interleague run!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#903 Arizona Diamondbacks (Miller) -125 over Miami Marlins (Straily) 6:10 PM CT

Dan Straily has a 4.89 ERA in six starts for capable results but a 6.35 FIP is lurking over those numbers. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is below 2:1 with a 4.9 BB/9 that is among the highest of NL starters. Straily hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any of his starts but he just hasn’t had the opportunity, averaging just four and two thirds innings per outing and completing six innings just twice.

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Miami has the worst record in the NL at 31-47 and they have been outscored by 113 runs this season. Miami has won eight of the last 13 games for better recent returns but they have also faced mostly losing teams since early June and the offensive numbers were boosted playing the past three games in Colorado. Miami was swept in Arizona less than a month ago, outscored 21-4 in that series and Miami is only 14-21 at home this season.

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Shelby Miller is a wild card on the mound coming off surgery for his first MLB start since April 2017. Miller posted huge strikeout numbers in his minor league tune-ups and he has the potential to get back to his solid from from a few years ago when he was an above average NL starter. Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in baseball and also features one of the NL’s top bullpens to help his cause as well.

After a rough month of May that opened the door for the Dodgers to climb back in the NL West race, Arizona has turned in a huge run in June going 16-6 and scoring 6.1 runs per game. This is a third stop on a road trip for the Diamondbacks but the team has momentum with four runs in a row and Miller is worth the risk at a small favorite price against one of baseball’s worst hitting teams.  

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Bobby Dalton is on a 12-6 run in MLB 10* Best Bets – get his next Best Bet for Monday night pay after you win! Dalton is on a 50-33 historical run in interleague picks as well. Nelly’s baseball is on a roll with a 20-9 record since late May, posting back-to-back 5-2 weeks, posting profits in 7 out of 11 weeks this season, don’t miss Monday’s MLB selection to start another big week.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#917 Oakland Athletics (Manaea) -125 over Texas Rangers (Moore) 7:05 PM CT

The Rangers are just 7-13 vs. left-handed starters this season and Texas has the AL’s worst team batting average at just .228. Texas has 68 home runs on the season but that is seven fewer than Oakland’s count with the Athletics also seven games ahead in the standings and 82 runs better in net scoring differential. Oakland is a winning team at 16-14 on the road while the Rangers are just 11-19 in Arlington this season.

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Matt Moore is only 28-years-old but the left-hander has seen his career trajectory fall off a cliff the past two seasons, now 7-20 in his last 27 decisions with a 6.02 ERA. His strikeout numbers continue to fall, on pace for a career low at just 7.4 K/9 in 11 appearances this season while his 4.4 BB/9 is difficult to overcome. Moore has a .396 BABIP right now which is sure to go down but even with a major adjustment he remains a below average AL starter and so far he has posted disastrous numbers in his home starts where batters are hitting .340 against him with a .934 OPS.

Sean Manaea hasn’t lived up to his brilliant April numbers but he has allowed four or fewer runs in all but one start this season and he remains a viable option on the mound. His season ERA is just 3.60 while he has allowed only 14 walks in 75 innings of work this season. Manaea has a lower ERA on the road and June has often been his best month in his career so far and he has strong career numbers vs. the Rangers. Oakland isn’t a great hitting team vs. left-handers but Manaea is the more reliable option backed by the stronger lineup and bullpen with the Rangers in a potential flat spot in the first game back at home after a west coast trip.

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Nelly’s Baseball is 7-1 the past eight days with a perfect start to June – don’t miss Tuesday’s 2-for-1 MLB offer! Bobby Dalton has a 10* and a 5* for Tuesday night with a guaranteed Best Bet having won five of his past seven 10* picks and riding a 48-31 historical interleague run.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#974 Kansas City Royals (Duffy) +120 over Minnesota Twins (Gibson) 7:15 PM CT

The Royals are heading for a very rough season but the lineup has shown some life with a .270 team average the past month, towering over a .237 mark for the Twins. Minnesota held on for an 8-5 win Monday night to open this series despite the Royals having more hits. Three runs came on a blooper double in the eighth inning that proved to be the difference with Kansas City going 4-19 with runners in scoring position.

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Kyle Gibson has strong road numbers this season but he has been consistently mediocre of late and hasn’t won a game since his first start of the season in late March. He has allowed 15 runs in his last five starts and his BB/9 of 4.3 is a concern.

Danny Duffy looked like one of the AL’s better pitchers going 12-3 in 2016 and he was solid last season for the Royals. His 2018 numbers have been disastrous with a 6.14 ERA so far but Duffy still has the pedigree of a much better starter. He has been burned by 14 home runs this season which is much less of risk against this Minnesota lineup and he has made only two of his last eight starts at home as he hasn’t been able to find a great rhythm with his only home start in May coming against the Yankees. Duffy has a career ERA of just 2.49 vs. the Twins with only one career loss in 13 starts vs. Minnesota.

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The Twins have a bullpen edge but the Royals continue to produce at the plate with an average of five runs per game the past seven contests while the Twins have scored five or more runs twice in the past 17 games.

The NBA Finals commence on Thursday – Nelly’s enters the Finals having won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs. Bobby Dalton won a Game 7 10* on Monday and is on a 33-17 run in playoff side plays!

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Nelly’s hit a solid underdog on the diamond Monday night plus in 4 of 7 weeks this season. Bobby Dalton has won 8 of his last 9 National League picks – check out daily MLB offers!

 

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#979 St. Louis Cardinals (Flaherty) +105 over Minnesota Twins (Berrios) 7:10 PM CT

Jack Flaherty didn’t look MLB ready in six appearances last season but the 22-year-old 2014 1st round pick has pitched well in two starts this season. His ERA is just 3.60 with a 9.9 K/9 making a pair of road starts vs. winning teams in April. His AAA numbers are magnificent this season and this is his opportunity to make a strong case to remain in the rotation.

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The Twins are just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central but the offense continues to disappoint. Minnesota has won eight of the last 12 games including beating the Cardinals twice in St. Louis last week but the late night and extra-innings series in Anaheim last week may be taking a toll. The Twins didn’t score last night and have scored just 17 runs in the past five games. Byron Buxton continues to struggle while Jason Castro has hit the DL to join Miguel Sano. Right now only Eddie Rosario has held his weight in the lineup with hot starts from Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar fading away.

Jose Berrios turns 24 in a few weeks and after a solid 2017 season for the Twins over 25 starts expectations are high in 2018. A complete game shutout in his first start answered that call but over his past four starts his ERA is 8.84 with a 5.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Something has been off with the talented young right-hander and underdog pricing for the Cardinals is appealing. St. Louis has won seven of the past 11 quietly six games above .500 despite a few big injuries. The Cardinals are 39 runs better in scoring differential and a winning road team as well.

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Multi-game MLB offers are available from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton for Tuesday night – also don’t miss Game 2 picks in the Eastern Conference Finals!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#978 Oakland Athletics (Mengden) +115 over Seattle Mariners (Paxton) 9:05 pM CT

James Paxton will finish the 2017 season with a nice season line, currently 12-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 10.2 K/9. His Mariners have been a big disappointment and coming off injuries the past two seasons Paxton won’t be pressed late in the season, having been removed in the second and fourth innings in his past two start, posting a 9.00 ERA in his two starts since returning from the DL in mid-September.

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Seattle is 10-18 down the stretch to fail in a wild card bid including going just 2-8 the past 10 games after winning last night in Oakland.

Daniel Mengden is offering real promise for the future Oakland rotation. His ERA is 3.30 in five starts this season including back-to-back scoreless outings. Oakland is 45-34 at home this season with a 14-4 record since September 6 despite home underdog pricing tonight.

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