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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#911/912 ‘OVER 9’ Arizona Diamondbacks (Godley) at Atlanta Braves (Gausman) 6:20 PM CT

Atlanta and Arizona have been middle-of-the-pack performers in the NL so far this season but both offenses have impressed sitting in MLB’s top 7 in team wOBA. Atlanta has drawn walks in 13 percent of its plate appearances for the top rate in baseball while these teams have combined to hit 50 home runs so far this season with Atlanta only 16 games into the season and Arizona just 17 games into the season.

In its second season Sun Trust Park has been a higher scoring field with 9.8 runs per game on average and batters collectively posting an .811 OPS. There have been 29 home runs in 10 Atlanta home games so far this season and on the current home stand several quality starters have struggled including last year’s NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.

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These teams combined for 15 runs last night even with several missed opportunities with a combined 17 men left on base. 10 relievers pitched last night and the bullpen has been a sore spot on both sides with Arizona posting a 6.04 bullpen ERA and the Braves only slightly better a 5.43. The number has climbed to 9 but neither Zack Godley or Kevin Gausman can be counted on for a high end outing with Gausman looking like an early overachiever so far and Godley not resembling the future star Arizona thought they had when he emerged in the 2017 season.

Nelly’s finished the regular season hitting over 66% in the NBA and we are already 3-1 in the playoffs. Don’t miss tonight’s selection for only $15. We are also riding four straight profitable MLB seasons and will officially start our season on Friday.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0 in baseball yesterday and 4-1 in 15* Best Bets last season on the diamond. His first 15* of the season is going tonight – $29.99 pay after you win.

Dalton has also hit 60% so far in the NBA playoffs and has a side & total package for Game 2 action tonight.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#976 Kansas City Royals (Keller) -130 over Chicago White Sox (Covey) 7:15 PM CT

Brad Keller has been a bright spot for the Royals with a 3.14 ERA and a winning record in 17 starts. He has pitched well in five of six appearance vs. the White Sox with none of his starts vs. Chicago at home where he owns a 3.11 ERA on the season. Since August started Keller owns a 2.64 ERA and the Royals have quietly been hitting well down the stretch.

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Kansas City has an .805 team OPS in the past 11 games, scoring 5.1 runs per contest. In contrast Chicago has a .679 team OPS the past two weeks and has now lost six games in a row without scoring more than three runs. Dylan Covey will be making his first start since mid-August after being relegated to the bullpen. In 17 starting efforts he had a 5.87 ERA with a 4.0 BB/9, going 4-10 in decisions. He has allowed 13 runs in three starts vs. Kansas City this season, taking the loss in all three games. The Royals have also gone 9-1 in the last 10 games as Kauffman.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#920 Texas Rangers (Minor) -120 Over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 7:05 PM CT

Mike Minor got a three-year contract from the Rangers ahead of this season despite limited success in recent years and the move has paid off for Texas with a 10-win campaign and a steady 4.33 ERA in 24 starts for the left-hander. Minor is well suited for the conditions in Arlington and he owns a 3.30 ERA at home this season with foes batting just .210 against him.

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The Angels continue to fade from a promising April start and Los Angeles is 18-25 vs. left-handed starters this season. The Angels have some big names in the lineup but have posted a .566 team OPS the past 11 games while scoring 3.2 runs per game and on the season the Angels own just a .660 team OPS vs. left-handers. Texas has posted solid offensive numbers with 5.1 runs per game over the past 23 games and while the Rangers are better vs. right-handers Texas should have an opportunity in this matchup.

Texas scored six runs with 10 hits against Andrew Heaney in mid-August in this ballpark and Heaney appears to be running out of gas with the former 1st round pick listing a solid season line but a 5.55 ERA in his last six starts. The Angels have been held to three or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games and Minor looks capable of another strong outing to keep Texas on a competitive late season run since early August.

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Nelly’s baseball is riding a 16-7 run since early August for a great late season run. We are also 33-20 on totals this season including going 9-1 in our last 10 over/under selections. Join Nelly’s for all picks for the rest of September for just $129 or play through the World Series for just $199!

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#909 Arizona Diamondbacks (Godley) -115 over San Francisco Giants (Rodriguez) 9:15 PM CT

Zack Godley has 13 wins but a 4.59 ERA for Arizona this season but his FIP is only 3.68 and with a 9.6 K/9 Godley remains a threat for a great outing most nights. His last two starting efforts have featured 14 strikeouts but 11 runs allowed after Godley had allowed just 13 runs over his previous seven starts combined with his ERA 3.79 with a 2.00 FIP over his last nine starts. Godley has had mixed results against the Giants this season but San Francisco has been ice cold at the plate in August.

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In the past 25 games San Francisco has hit .217 while posting a .589 team OPS with only 14 home runs and averaging 3.4 runs per game. Arizona has dropped four of the last five games including getting shutout in the first two games of this series. They now sit tied with the Rockies in the NL West with the Dodgers now within a game and the Diamondbacks have four games at Dodger Stadium this weekend.

Arizona has a .751 team OPS the past 23 games with steady production. Arizona has improved its numbers vs. right-handed pitching since the trade deadline and Dereck Rodriguez has suspicious numbers in 15 games as a rookie. Rodriguez is 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA but with a 4.07 xFIP, benefiting from a .247 BABIP on the season. Rodriguez has made only three starts in August and Arizona has faced him before which should help the cause Wednesday.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#970 Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) +120 over Oakland Athletics (Manaea) 7:10 PM CT

The Twins have been a disappointment this season but Minnesota has played respectable ball in the past two months even as one of the big trade deadline sellers. The Twins have a .784 team OPS in the past 12 games with 21 home runs and 5.5 runs per game on average. Minnesota won the season’s first meeting with Oakland last night and Minnesota could play spoiler with six more games remaining against the Athletics. Since early July Minnesota is 26-18 while scoring 5.1 runs per game and the Twins are 39-26 at Target Field on the season.

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The season numbers support a preference for facing right-handers for Minnesota but in the past 10 games the Twins have hit .260 with 7.6 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching. Sean Manaea has a nice season line with a 3.70 ERA but take out a brilliant month of April and he is a league-average pitcher with a 4.74 ERA just a 5.6 K/9. Manaea has allowed at least two runs in 18 of his last 20 starts as he has rarely been dominant and over his last three starts (all at home) he owns a 6.91 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi has been a solid starter for Minnesota and he owns a 3.88 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has a 9.9 K/9 in that span with two or fewer runs allowed in seven of those 10 starts. Despite the sell off the Twins have a 1.99 bullpen ERA the past 10 games and Oakland’s lineup has also been better vs. lefties of late as Odorizzi isn’t an ideal draw. Oakland is just 4-4 the past eight games and the team has failed to top four runs in six of the last nine games. With a 26-10 record in one-run games this has been a fortunate team and the deep bullpen has been worked hard the past two games with disappointing losses dropping the Athletics 1.5 games behind Houston. Oakland has one win in the last six visits to Minneapolis and the home underdog price is appealing on a Twins squad that is still playing hard.

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Nelly’s is 10-4 in our last 14 MLB picks – check out Friday’s MLB package. Big E and Bobby Dalton also have big football picks planned for preseason Week 3.

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#969 Houston Astros (Keuchel) +100 over Oakland Athletics (Cahill) 3:05 PM CT

Oakland won in impressive fashion last night in a huge AL West series with the Athletics incredibly just one game behind the Astros in the current standings. Houston is 135 runs superior to Oakland in scoring differential however and much of the success Oakland has had picking up ground in this race has come with Houston battling injuries in recent weeks. The Astros are getting closer to being back at full strength and are still 41-19 on the road this season.

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While Houston’s top starters have faded a bit from hot early season paces, Dallas Keuchel may be hitting his stride going 6-1 with a 2.19 ERA in his last 11 starts. Keuchel is a better pitcher on the road and Oakland and he allowed one run over eight innings in a win in his last start at the Coliseum. Oakland is only 25-19 vs. left-handed starters this season and Keuchel owns a 2.86 career ERA in this ballpark for the best numbers of any of the AL West venues he pitches in regularly.

Five Oakland relievers all pitched an inning last night to wear on the bullpen with Trevor Cahill a less proven option on the mound than Keuchel. Cahill has been a great surprise story this season with a 3.39 ERA as the top option in the Oakland rotation but he has been fortunate with a .279 BABIP. His home numbers are outstanding but he has not faced a single current playoff team at home this season. Houston has scored seven runs against him in just over nine innings this season as well.

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Houston has won nine of 14 meetings this season with 33 more runs scored in the series this season as a bounce-back for the Astros with rare near-even pricing is attractive Saturday afternoon.

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Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet Total on the diamond tonight with a 31-19 run in Best Bets! He also has a rare 10* in preseason NFL action lined up pay after you win! Nelly’s Baseball is on an 8-3 run in MLB action – get on board through the World Series.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#919/920 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy appeared to be on pace to becoming one of the top left-handers in the AL, used as a reliever in the 2014 and 2015 postseasons after being a capable back of the rotation starter. Duffy became a full-time starter in 2016 and delivered a great season. In down year for the Royals last season Duffy still made competitive starts but he has struggled in 2018 for an even worst performing Kansas City squad. His ERA is 4.59 with a 4.98 FIP and his BB/9 has climbed to 4.2. Duffy has a hefty contract through 2021 as he isn’t likely to be dealt even though he has looked the part of a very useful starter of late, allowing posting five starts with one or fewer allowed over his last seven outings. His ERA is actually just 2.73 over his last 10 starts and he has dominated the Twins twice in that stretch, allowing just one run over 12 innings.

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Minnesota owns a .699 team OPS vs. left-handers on the season and while a 9-2 run into the break has kept the Twins hanging on in the AL Central conversation this team is still a candidate to move some pieces at the deadline and the recent rise in production mostly came against the bottom of the AL. Minnesota has just 18 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances this season vs. left-handed pitching.

Jose Berrios represented the Twins in the All Star game but since late April Kyle Gibson has been the team’s top starter. In his last 15 starts his ERA is just 3.23 with solid strikeout marks and few home runs allowed. He posted seven shutout innings vs. the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in late May and Kansas City has a AL worst .666 team OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Both bullpens have been a mess to offer some concern in the late innings but off the long layoff the managers will be able to have all of their options at full strength.

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Bobby Dalton picked up +46.0* in June! He has a 20-11 run in Best Bests at the break and has a 10* Best Bet for Friday afternoon! 

Nelly’s has turned in a profit in 9 of 14 weeks this season. We finished the first half 11 games above .500 with nearly +9.0* of profit. Totals are red hot with a 17-7 run at the break while 32-19 (63%) overall since May 28!

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Free MLB Pick Sunday

#917/918 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 12:05 PM CT

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t had a lot of success since the first half of his first season with the Tigers in 2016. This season Zimmermann missed about six weeks on the DL but overall his campaign has provided steady returns for a Tigers team that offered some competitive results prior to the current 11-game slide. Zimmermann hasn’t taken a loss and he owns a 3.51 FIP on the season in over 41 innings of work. His K/9 is currently its highest since his rookie season in 2009 and he still possesses the great command that has kept him in the big leagues into his 30s.

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J.A. Happ is proving his great 2016 season wasn’t a fluke with strong returns in 2018. He has top 20 numbers in ERA, K/9, and FIP among AL starters and he certainly has a case to be on the AL All Star team for the Blue Jays. Just once in 16 starts has Happ allowed more than four runs. Detroit is able to post a righty-heavy lineup as they did yesterday but right-handers are batting just .222 vs. Happ this season.

Mired in the current losing streak the Tigers are batting .209 with a .582 team OPS the past 11 games, scoring an average of 2.6 runs per game. Detroit has been one of the AL’s top ‘under’ teams at 48-34-2 including 25-14-1 in road games. The Jays are batting just .238 with a 3.9 runs per game over the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching and while both bullpens have had some shaky recent moments this Sunday day game should mirror Saturday’s game, a contest with only 14 combined hits.

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Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday, now 16-4 our last 20 totals and on a 24-13 overall run since late May. Get Sunday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has won Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers the past two days and wrapped up a +46.0 unit gain in June. Don’t miss Sunday’s MLB Trips-2-Win 2/3 with Dalton on an 18-6 AL run!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) +110 over Baltimore Orioles (Cobb) 5:35 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Rays out-hit the Orioles 15-10 last night but wound up losing by five runs in a game where they had three times as many at-bats as Baltimore with runners in scoring position. The Rays left five times as many runners on base and the Orioles turned two huge rally-killing double plays in the game with a two out grand slam from Manny Machado the key play in the result for the Orioles.

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The Rays are still 5.5 games and a 57 runs superior to the Orioles in the standings and Baltimore is just 8-11 at Camden Yards. Somehow winning three games in a row leaves the Orioles as the favorite tonight in Game 2 of today’s double-header. While there is some risk getting involved before knowing the Game 1 outcome, the Rays have Chris Archer on the mound in the afternoon game and while he has had mixed results he should be counted on for a sustained start. The Orioles are countering with the MLB debut of David Hess with far more potential variance in his outcome and the toll on the Baltimore bullpen.

Alex Cobb was picked up by a panicked Orioles team late in spring training and the move has not paid off with a 7.61 ERA and no wins in five starts for Cobb. Facing his former team could be a challenge as the Rays scored five runs and had 10 hits against him at Oriole Park in late April and Cobb has just a 4.2 K/9 this season despite being the favorite in this matchup. Matt Andriese has been a steady fill-in starter for the Rays in recent years and his numbers this season are excellent with a 10.5 K/9 while allowing just three walks in more than 20 innings of work. His FIP is only 2.04 and while he isn’t likely to go deep in this game he has had a few longer relief outings and his starting experience could push him to a longer start tonight. The winning streak for the Orioles isn’t likely a great sign of things to come especially with a very fortunate result last night and the underdog Rays are worth a shot in Game 2.

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Nelly’s has won in three of four MLB weeks this season – get tonight’s TOTAL for $15! Bobby Dalton is on a 51-35 Trips-2-Win MLB run – win 2/3 tonight with the Big Dog!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#928 Seattle Mariners (Leake) +115 over Los Angeles Angels (Richards) 9:10 PM CT

Mike Leake has a 6.48 ERA but he has three wins and one terrible outing is skewing the numbers. His FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA and he has had some bad luck with a high BABIP and a low strand rate. His strikeout rate won’t impress anyone but he also rarely walks batters and he has been a far better pitcher at home. Leake had a 3.38 ERA at home last season and his career numbers at Safeco Field are very solid.

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Garrett Richards has been all over the place this season with a few dominant showings to help produce a 12.0 K/9 but his ERA is up to 4.88. Richards has completed six innings just once in six starts and he has allowed 19 walks in nearly 28 innings of work. Richards has generated a lot of ground balls which has been the norm in his career as things could get worse for Richards in his first sustained MLB action since 2015.

The Angels lead the AL West and have generated plenty of early season headlines but Seattle is just a half game behind at 18-12 despite far less fanfare. The offensive production for these teams has been similar and the 11-2 road mark for the Angels isn’t sustainable. Richards has just two career wins in Seattle and the Angels are just 6-9 the past 15 games after the great first few weeks of the season. Seattle has quietly won seven of the last nine including four straight series wins and the marginal home record is due to only facing Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland so far this season.

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Nelly’s Baseball went 2-0 Thursday night – don’t miss a side play opportunity Friday for just $15!

Bobby Dalton is on a roll in the NBA playoffs with a 10-3 run now 10-5 in postseason Best Bets. Get his 10* BEST BET TOTAL for Friday night at the sale price of just $19.99!