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Green Sheet Issue #5 in the SEC

This week’s Green Sheet release is all about the SEC. LSU delivered a historically great championship season last year to keep the conference on top of college football. The Tigers will return minimal experience in 2020 as there is likely to be a change at the top. 

Find out which three programs return top five experience ratings on both sides of the ball for 2020, one of which rates as a clear surprise candidate given its schedule with a 10-0 start very possible. We also have seven pages of coaching stats and team history, along with the 2020 schedules in this week’s issue. 
Find out which coach is a nearly 79% ATS proposition in his career as a road favorite, including going 4-0 last season in that role. What role has Nick Saban only covered at a 20% ATS rate in his tenure at Alabama? It is the same role that Gus Malzahn has covered at an 80% clip in his time at Auburn.

Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin are well-traveled high-profile additions to the SEC this season and we have all of their past results broken down in Green Sheet issue #5, available now for just $12, or you can still sign up for the full season subscription for only $99, this rate will be going up to $149 soon, so don’t delay! 

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Green Sheet Early Look

Check our a short preview of our first off-season issue of the 2020-21 Green Sheet.

Click Here for a Green Sheet Early Look

The Green Sheet for the 2020-21 season and that will be an online only subscription released in the middle of each week. The subscription will start with several off-season issues in early to mid-April. We’ll have a $99.00 season subscription rate available until the first issue comes out in April.

Support us in this lean period of the calendar by signing up in advance for next season at a greatly discounted rate.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#638 Tennessee +1 over Florida 1:00 PM CT

With 10 losses Florida has been a disappointment this season with a roster many expected could compete for a national title. A big March run remains possible for the Gators but this valuation is a bit lofty for the Gators coming off a huge win over LSU with the current 6-2 run featuring mostly the worst teams in the SEC including a pair of wins over Vanderbilt. The only three road wins in SEC play for Florida came vs. foes that grade worse than Tennessee and after a run of back-to-back huge games vs. top conference contenders this could be a flat spot. Tennessee has had a challenging season coming off being a national force last year, with the loss of Lamonte Turner as season-changing blow. Tennessee has limped to a 7-8 SEC run but not without several competitive showings and still a formidable home court. Tennessee has won its last two home games and the team enter this game off a rare lopsided loss losing badly at Arkansas Wednesday after beating the Razorbacks soundly at home earlier in the month. Tennessee has not lost three consecutive SEC games all season and this game is critical given that a road trip to Lexington is up next Tuesday night. Florida has faced the 14th ranked SEC schedule for a favorable path that inflates the numbers and Tennessee has featured an outstanding interior defense this season that is among the best in the SEC. Tennessee allows less than 32 percent from 3-point range as well as the Gators aren’t likely to hit their season averages against a bigger Volunteers lineup. Tennessee has won four of the last five in this series with Florida last winning in Knoxville in 2014.

Nelly’s Basketball is 40-22 the past 39 days for an over 64% run heading into March Madness. Join us for all picks through April 6 for just $269 to build on a huge 34-18 run in the NCAA Tournament the past three seasons! Play today’s 2/3 as we look to add to a 5-0 NBA run while hitting each of our last two 2/3 offers in the last week!

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 Thursday night in basketball and he has three picks ready to go for Saturday in a $23 2/3 offer! He is also a perfect 6-0 in the XFL and has football releases for Saturday & Sunday!

Big E has won six of his last eight 20* Conference GOY picks while 12-6 on the season in 20* picks and 15-7 in 15* and higher picks. Join the B.E.S.T. for March Madness for $199.94 and check out today’s 20* in the Summit League!

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Bobby Dalton wins Eliminator

The 2019 Eliminator Contest is complete!

Each handicapper submits two selections each week, a single 1-point play and a double 2-point play. Each contestant is awarded points for losses and eliminated at 10 points.

The 2019 ELIMINATOR CONTEST IS COMPLETED – Congratulations to Bobby Dalton!

CLICK HERE for the 2019 Eliminator Final Standings

The Double Plays can be purchased for just $9 each week, or for $50 for the duration of the contest! 

Bobby Dalton takes the title going 16-6, to beat Weekly Wizard in Week 11! Dalton won his single play last week with the Buffalo Bills and that was enough for this year’s title in the final week. Weekly Wizard had another great showing with a runner-up finish after winning the title last season. Rocketman Sports also had a great campaign lasting 10 weeks to finish third.

Thank you to all the handicappers for participating and thanks for following along this season!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#147 Kansas +25 over Iowa State 11:00 AM CT

The midseason momentum Kansas gained from the close loss to Texas and the upset over Texas Tech has been erased with lopsided losses the past two weeks. While the offense has struggled and the initial glow of new OC Brent Dearmon has worn off, the defense has kept the scoring in check. The Jayhawks will also be a significantly higher underdog in Ames than they were in Forth Worth, Austin, or Stillwater even with a pretty-even grouping among those teams in the second tier of the Big XII. Kansas was only out-gained by 62 yards in this matchup last season and Iowa State is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three games as a Big XII favorite. The Cyclones are an average rushing team and can be overly reliant on the passing game which is not an ideal heavy favorite criterion, while Kansas has posted very respectable pass defense numbers and has out-thrown three straight Big XII foes. Iowa State may have a tough time matching the intensity of the past few games facing Oklahoma and Texas in succession with tense finishes in both games. Even with clear improvement for Kansas this season under Les Miles this will be the biggest favorite spread for Matt Campbell vs. a FBS foe since he took over at Iowa State in 2016 and in our data back to 1980 the Cyclones have never been this big of a favorite vs. a FBS foe with this year’s 6-4 squad not exactly looking deserving of a historic price. Kansas is on a 9-2 ATS run at +24 or higher and the points make sense in this situation with a possible letdown for Iowa State.

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Eliminator Update

The 2019 contest continues – Bobby Dalton won with the Chiefs Monday night to stay alive.

Bobby Dalton now leads the contest with a 15-5 record and 8 points. The Weekly Wizard is 13-7 with 8 points.

Week 11 contest picks will be posted on Thursday, Nov. 21.

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Free NFL Pick

#460 Minnesota Vikings -10 over Denver Broncos 12:00 PM CT

After surviving a dramatic finish for a prime time road win the Vikings could be at risk this week facing a rested Broncos team. Outside of the Thursday loss to the Chiefs, every Denver loss has been a competitive game and Brandon Allen’s debut was a success. Minnesota’s run defense figures to put more pressure on him this week and Mike Zimmer’s home record will be difficult to test even with lesser results priced this high. The Broncos have allowed fewer than 19 points per game this season as it won’t take a huge performance from the offense to hang within this number but ultimately Allen isn’t worth the risk vs. this defense. The Broncos have merit as a popular underdog at 10 or fewer points, Minnesota is the lean.

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Eliminator Final 3

The 2019 Eliminator Contest is down to the FINAL 3 contestants!

Will Weekly Wizard claim his record 4th title with a back-to-back title run? Can long-time Nelly’s featured handicapper Bobby Dalton deliver the championship? Will Rocketman claim his first title? Don’t miss this week’s picks!

Each handicapper submits two selections each week, a single 1-point play and a double 2-point play. Each contestant is awarded points for losses and eliminated at 10 points.

The 2019 ELIMINATOR CONTEST IS UNDERWAY WITH WEEK 10 SELECTIONS FOR GAMES NOV. 16-18

CLICK HERE for the Week 10 Contest Single Plays

The Double Plays can be purchased for just $9 each week, or for $50 for the duration of the contest

DOWN TO THE FINAL 3 CONTESTANTS!

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NFL Close Calls Wk10

NFL Close Calls – Week 10

11/12/2019

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 10 of the NFL regular season including the epic Monday night affair in San Francisco.  

Oakland Raiders (+1) 26, Los Angeles Chargers 24 (49): The Raiders led 20-17 through three quarters after the Chargers settled for a 27-yard field goal late in the third quarter. The next Los Angeles drive started with a sack but eventually finished in the end zone while taking more than eight minutes off the clock. Down four, Oakland would need a touchdown and Derek Carr led the offense down the field without facing a 3rd down until 3rd-and-1 from the 18-yard-line with just over a minute remaining. Josh Jacobs would break through and go the distance to put Oakland up by two and incredibly Daniel Carlson missed the PAT to leave the Chargers a chance to win with a field goal. That touchdown also put the total just ‘over’ hovering from 47½ to 49 during the week. The Chargers could only pick up five yards before Philip Rivers wound up intercepted with 20 seconds to go on 4th-and-10, his third pick of the day for a 3-0 turnover edge for the Raiders in a two-point win.

Tennessee Titans (+5) 35, Kansas City Chiefs 32 (48½): Patrick Mahomes likely returning was already baked into this spread opening at -3 but Kansas City climbed all the way to -6 in Nashville with the confirmation of last season’s MVP returning. Mahomes did not disappoint with huge numbers and a 63-yard touchdown put the Chiefs up by nine in the fourth quarter. Tennessee answered with a five-minute drive to get within two and then held the Chiefs to a field goal, with Kansas City incredibly leading by five on a closing line of five despite that being a rather uncommon football margin. The Titans had to go for it on 4th-and-17 from their own 32 and failed but the Chiefs weren’t able to close out the game, taking a sack on 3rd-and-short. A bad snap botched a field goal attempt to keep the margin at five and gave the Titans great field goal position with still more than a minute to go. Ryan Tannehill delivered the go-ahead score for the Titans in just four plays and the two-point conversion put the Titans up three. Handed only 23 seconds Mahomes got the Chiefs 28 yards but a 52-yard kick to force overtime was then blocked by Joshua Kalu, with either perfect or uncalled early timing depending on your perspective.

Cleveland Browns (-3) 19, Buffalo Bills 16 (42): Cleveland led 9-7 at halftime after being unable to punch in several attempts near the goal line to prevent a larger lead, though Buffalo also missed a 34-yard field goal before the break. A safety tied the game in the third quarter but Cleveland got a field goal to lead by three on a spread of -3, though -2½ was available early in the week. A holding call for the Bills cost them a first down late in the third quarter and Buffalo went for it on 4th-and-4 and came up short on the final play of the third quarter. The Bills got a solid punt return a few minutes later to land near midfield and was able to get in the end zone after some close calls with a recovered fumble and then a touchdown brought back on review. Down four the Browns gave up a defensive touchdown but on a review Baker Mayfield’s fumble was overturned to an incomplete shovel pass. Shortly after the two-minute warning Cleveland connected for the go-ahead score to leave the margin at three. Buffalo got in position to force overtime but Stephen Hauschka missed left from 53 yards for a costly Bills defeat and a push for most on the spread.

New York Jets (+3) 34, New York Giants 27 (43): There were big scoring swings in this contest with a 14-0 lead for the Jets but the Giants scoring twice before the break. The Jets got a defensive score in the third quarter but the Giants put back-to-back touchdowns together and led 27-24 heading into the fourth, right even with the closing spread with a big move on this game from the Jets opening as a slight favorite. The Jets closed the game on a 13-0 run as a productive overall day from Daniel Jones and the Giants offense finished with four punts and a fumble for 25 net yards on its final five possessions combined.

Green Bay Packers (-4½) 24, Carolina Panthers 16 (49): The Panthers scored first in this game but the Packers took over in the second half to lead 24-10 heading into the third quarter with two scores around an interception in the end zone from Kyle Allen. The Panthers scored with about 12 minutes to go and went for two unsuccessfully to trail by eight. The defense did its part forcing two Green Bay punts and Allen led an 18-play drive going 88 yards in the final three minutes. The Panthers needed 89 however as after getting new life after a defensive penalty on 4th down, the Panthers wound up with an incomplete pass and then one final chance. Christian McCaffrey went up the middle and may have crossed the plane narrowly but amidst bodies and a snow covered field, the clear video evidence of the ball crossing the chalk wasn’t there as the Green Bay escaped and Panthers backers were left a few points short.

Chicago Bears (-6½) 20, Detroit Lions 13 (38): Matthew Stafford was ruled out Sunday morning as this line shot from as low as -2½ up to -7 before settling at -6½ with Jeff Driskel starting. It was 7-6 at halftime but Mitchell Trubisky led two scoring drives in the third quarter for a 14-point edge. The Lions were productive with a big yardage edge and scored with six minutes to go on a big play to climb within seven. The Lions failed on 4th-and-11 near midfield ahead of the two-minute warning but the Bears only could run off 32 seconds. Down at their own 10, the Lions were able to make Bears and ‘under’ backers quite nervous reaching the Chicago 25 in the final seconds but the defense held up.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) 17, Los Angeles Rams 12 (43½): The Rams had two interceptions to start the second half but held defensively both times. A field goal put Los Angeles within four and Aaron Donald added a safety early in the fourth quarter, sitting down two to leave the Rams with a path to cover the road favorite number with a touchdown. The Steelers converted a 4th-and-1 from their own 34 in a huge play in this outcome and then recovered their own fumble on the very next play for another close call. Eventually the Steelers were able to add a 33-yard field goal to lead by five with fewer than three minutes remaining to seal the underdog cover in most scenarios. The Rams had two late possessions but the first ended with a 4th down incomplete pass while Jared Goff had another interception on the final drive. The most impactful play of the game ultimately came just before halftime with Jared Goff ruled to have fumbled and Pittsburgh returning it 43 yards for a touchdown when an incomplete pass has often been called on similar throwing motions.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) 28, Dallas Cowboys 24 (48): A 14-0 first quarter lead for the Vikings was erased in the second quarter but Minnesota added field goals on both sides of halftime. Amari Cooper got a touchdown midway through the third to put Dallas up one but the Vikings answered with eight, going for it on 4th-and-goal and also hitting the two-point conversion. Dallas was not as aggressive in its answer kicking a field goal with 10 minutes remaining to trail by four. In the final minute of the game Dallas would again face 4th-and-5 and could not find the end zone. Minnesota didn’t do enough to run much clock off and Dallas had the ball back near midfield. A few quick gains made for a reasonable Hail Mary try that was ultimately intercepted.

Seattle Seahawks (+6½) 27, San Francisco 49ers 24 (47): Week 10 saved the best for last with a thrilling showcase game in the NFC West Monday night. The undefeated 49ers looked the part as the league’s top team with a 10-0 first quarter lead. The game turned late in the second quarter with a defensive touchdown for Seattle to climb within three despite the offense struggling. Seattle held to get the ball back before halftime in great field position and DK Metclalf nearly took the Seahawks into the end zone with a long run after contact but he was incredibly stripped of the ball for a San Francisco touchback. Seattle also fumbled on its first drive out of the break but San Francisco stalled on the edge of field goal range and fell incomplete on 4th-and-2. Back-to-back turnovers led to two quick Seattle touchdowns but the momentum shifted back quickly as the 49ers had their own defensive score to make it 21-18 early in the fourth. San Francisco tied the game with a field goal at about the six-minute mark before matching field goals sent the game to overtime, with San Francisco’s late tying field goal securing the ‘over’ as well. The Seahawks hit a huge play on 3rd-and-16 and were in field goal range going first on overtime but Russell Wilson threw his second interception of the season. San Francisco looked poised to win but fill-in kicker Chase McLaughlin missed badly from 47, the same distance he hit from to force overtime. Punts followed as a tie looked possible but Wilson had a big scramble and hit a few short gains to allow Jason Myers to deliver from 42 yards as time expired for the upset.

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Eliminator Final 5

Each handicapper submits two selections each week, a single 1-point play and a double 2-point play. Each contestant is awarded points for losses and eliminated at 10 points.

The 2019 ELIMINATOR CONTEST IS UNDERWAY WITH WEEK 9 SELECTIONS FOR GAMES NOV. 9-11

CLICK HERE for the Week 9 Contest Single Plays

The Double Plays can be purchased for just $9 each week, or for $50 for the duration of the contest

DOWN TO THE FINAL 5 CONTESTANTS!