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Free NBA Pick Thursday

#528 Detroit Pistons +7 over Dallas Mavericks 8:05 PM CT @Mexico City

Detroit is 10-14 but currently the Pistons are the first team out of the Eastern Conference playoff field and just a game back of the Magic. The Pistons also have a positive scoring differential despite the losing record. Detroit has quietly won four of the last five while also winning six of the past 10 for a solid stretch of play in recent weeks with two of the losses in that timeframe to the East leading Bucks. Detroit has clearly turned a corner in recent weeks and the Pistons are 5-6 S/U against the league’s top 16 teams, competing well against quality competition. The Pistons are finally healthy and this team is playing with some confidence with a narrow win in the last game via a Derrick Rose game-winner. Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway have taken huge strides this season to make the Pistons a more complete group behind Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Markieff Morris in the formidable frontcourt. Griffin missed much of the slow start for the Pistons and has been a big boost to a roster that is currently stronger than the record suggests. This is a big stage for a Dallas team that suddenly has transformed into a serious contender. Dallas is 16-7 on the season with great offensive numbers but this Mexico City spotlight game is not something the team is used to. Dallas has played the NBA’s weakest schedule to produce the great results and is barely .500 vs. quality teams this season. Detroit has just as many top 16 wins as Dallas has and the Pistons were a seven-point favorite the last time these teams met last January in Detroit. Drummond is listed as questionable tonight to keep this game at Free Pick level as his defensive presence will be important in this contest.

Nelly’s went 2-0 in basketball last night as we have delivered another strong start to the season! Join us for an extended subscription and don’t miss tonight’s NBA pick!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#969/970 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Oakland Athletics (Mengden) at Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 3:10 PM CT

Pitching for the Tigers Matthew Boyd isn’t getting a lot of attention but he has had an All Star caliber run in his first nine starts with a 3.15 ERA and a 10.8 K/9. He has now allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and his 2.86 FIP suggests it is a sustainable pace for the 28-year-old who has shown potential but inconsistency in past seasons. Oakland is the last place team in the AL West a year after making the playoffs and while Oakland has hit significantly better vs. left-handers they are batting with a .712 team OPS the past 23 games for marginal production.

That production bests the Tigers potential with Detroit’s lineup among the league’s worst in most offensive categories. The Tigers have the second highest strikeout rate in baseball while offering a very low walk rate and the second fewest home runs in MLB. That bodes well for Daniel Mengden in his second start of the season after posting great AAA numbers. Mengden was a useful starter for Oakland last year and while he allowed four runs in his 2019 debut he surrendered only five hits.

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Detroit has not topped five runs in 10 straight games to average just 2.4 runs per game. Oakland has posted 24 runs in the first two games of this series but the 17-run showing on Thursday featured only 16 hits and five unearned runs while these teams scored nine runs on only 13 hits last night. The weather in Detroit this afternoon should also favor pitching with cooler temperatures and the wind blowing win fairly strong from left-center.

Bobby Dalton has a big 4-play card in MLB Saturday as he looks for a third straight winning week while 3-1 in his last four Best Bets. Nelly’s MLB is 6-3 since Monday and we have a guaranteed afternoon total.

Bobby Dalton is 4-1 in the Conference Finals and is featuring a Game 3 side & total package in the NBA Saturday. Nelly’s is 2-0 in the Conference Finals and 10-6 in our last 16 playoff sides – don’t miss our Game 3 pick.

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#519/520 ‘OVER 220.5’ Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs 7:05 PM CT

Detroit has been on an offensive surge on the current 7-1 streak since early February, posting an average of 118 points per game on that span even with recent games against good defensive teams including Boston, Miami, and Indiana. The ‘over’ has collected in seven of those eight games and while today’s total is several points higher than the home meeting with the Spurs in early January, the elevated number is more than justified.

The ‘over’ is 12-2 in the last 14 Spurs games as a San Antonio franchise known for defense has been struggling mightily. On that ‘over’ run the totals in Spurs games have been at least 219.5 in 13 of the past 14 games but hit an over inflated with a 233.5 number in Brooklyn on Monday. That was the final game of a lengthy road trip for San Antonio spanning both sides of the All Star break.

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San Antonio has allowed at least 107 points in 13 of the past 14 games however and opponents have scored 120 or more in six of the past eight games with an average allowance of more than 122 points per game. San Antonio has been one of the league’s best ‘over’ teams at 38-24 on the season and both of these teams have allowed 48 percent shooting over the past five games.

The January meeting between these teams featured 226 points even with Detroit getting only 14 points at the line at home and connecting at just 28 percent from 3-point range. The Spurs shot well for the game but not from beyond the arc and there were few turnovers and only 221 fast break points in the contest as there was certainly room for more scoring.

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Nelly’s is 4-0 the past three days and we have hit over 63% since early December in basketball. Don’t miss a great opportunity Wednesday night.

Bobby Dalton is on a 12-5 Best Bet run in college basketball and he has posted a 10* Missouri Valley pick for Wednesday – pay after you win.

Big E won last night in college basketball – get daily 10* Biggies for $9.94!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#260 Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over Detroit Lions 12:00 PM CT

Most expected Dallas to be a team back in the NFC race and a contender in the East against the Super Bowl champion Eagles. Injuries have taken a toll as the offensive line isn’t the force it has been the past two seasons while Dak Prescott hasn’t matched his results from the past two seasons. Dallas has drawn three quality defensive teams however and last week’s great performance notwithstanding, Detroit should be the worst defensive team on the Cowboys schedule in the first month.

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Detroit dominating New England Sunday night in a desperation spot and a mammoth contest for Matt Patricia has pushed the Cowboys to below a field goal as a home favorite in Week 4. The Lions are on a 20-34 S/U and a 21-32-1 ATS run in road games. Dallas is a slight home favorite despite the #3 total defense in the NFL through three weeks and the Cowboys have an elite pass defense which is critical against a Lions team that routinely struggles to run the ball.

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Dallas has surrendered only 6.6 yards per pass on the season while tied for second in the NFL with 11 sacks even though they haven’t picked up an interception yet. Dallas has also allowed only 3.4 yards per rush on the season as while the Cowboys may be limited on offense they likely don’t need a big number to win this game. Detroit has scored 70 points in three games and seven of those points came on defense while another 14 came late in the fourth quarter of a game that was already decided.

Nelly’s won Saturday’s NCAA 2/3 offer – get Sunday’s NFL 2/3 for only $25! Big E won his 20* on Saturday for a third straight week – don’t miss today’s 10* Biggie for $9.94! Point Train went 4-0 yesterday and is on a 7-1 NFL run – get today’s AFC Game of the Month for $34.97! Bobby Dalton is 10-6 in the NFL this season with a 86-55 September run the past seven years – he has posted a 15* Best Bet Total for Sunday for $39.99! Maximum went 6-2 yesterday – don’t miss a big 5-game offer Sunday!

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NFC North Staff Changes



Over/Under Win Total: 6½

Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

Staff Change: The Bears hired former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to take over as head coach. Former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich is Nagy’s OC with no NFL experience on his resume. Vic Fangio will stay on as DC through the coaching change, with the team in that role since 2015 and serving as DC with four other NFL teams in his career.

Probable QB Rotation:

Mitch Trubisky

Chase Daniel

Tyler Bray

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Over/Under Win Total: 7½

Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1

Staff Change: The Lions fired Jim Caldwell despite back-to-back 9-7 seasons and a 36-28 record in four seasons while responsible for three of the team’s four winning seasons in the past 17 years. Matt Patricia is the new head coach after 14 years as an assistant at New England the past six as DC. Jim Bob Cooter was retained as the OC while Paul Pasqualoni was hired as DC after a well traveled run in the college and NFL ranks with Patricia an assistant when Pasqualoni was the head coach as Syracuse.

Probable QB Rotation:

Matthew Stafford

Matt Cassel

Jake Rudock

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Over/Under Win Total: 10

Odds to win Super Bowl: 14/1

Staff Change: Mike Pettine is returning to the NFL as the new Green Bay defensive coordinator following a long and mixed run under Dom Capers. Pettine was a successful DC for the Jets and Bills before a failed HC stop in Cleveland in 2014-15. Former Packers OC Joe Philbin is back with the team after being HC in Miami and more recently an assistant in Indianapolis. Edgar Bennett (OC) and Alex Van Pelt (QBs) were fired after last season.

Probable QB Rotation:

Aaron Rodgers

DeShone Kizer

Brett Hundley

Tim Boyle


Over/Under Win Total: 10

Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1

Staff Change: Pat Shurmur leaves as OC to take over in New York while John DeFilippo takes over as OC after being QB coach in Philadelphia. He has an entirely new QB staff to work with.

Probable QB Rotation:

Kirk Cousins

Trevor Siemian

Kyle Sloter

Peter Pujals

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#708 Brooklyn Nets +2 over Detroit Pistons 6:35 PM CT

Brooklyn is one of the more improved teams in the league and could eclipse last season’s win count by the end of the month. The Nets still check in with one of the lesser records in the league but they are a respectable 9-12 S/U at home and own an average scoring differential of only -2.2 per game.

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Only twice in the last 11 games have the Nets lost by more than four points and in the past three home games the Nets have played right with three of the league’s best teams, beating Minnesota by one, losing to Boston by two, and losing to Toronto by one.

Detroit is just 8-13 S/U on the road and while the Pistons are a playoff threat at 21-18 S/U on the season, the Pistons are 7-11 S/U since December 1. Brooklyn is one of the league’s best spread performers at 24-16 ATS on the season, going 20-11 ATS as an underdog, and 8-4 ATS as a home underdog. The Pistons are on a 15-26 ATS run in the road favorite role since February of 2014, going 2-7 in the last nine instances since last March.

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The Pistons are 2-9 ATS in this series since April of 2014 including losing ATS in all three meetings last season. This is a seventh straight game for Detroit requiring travel and a two-day break ahead of a big division game with the Bulls is next on the schedule for a team that has allowed triple-digit scoring in five straight road games.

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Nelly’s is 20-8 in the NBA season and 31-18 overall since December 3 including a 5-1 run since Saturday. Don’t miss Wednesday offers from Nelly’s and our featured handicappers. Bobby Dalton has a 10* Best Bet in college basketball Wednesday, winning a 10* Tuesday to reach 6-1 on the season. Dalton is 16-8 overall in college basketball since December 1. Big E won a 20* last night in the MAC and is 13-5 in his last 18 picks