Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Minnesota Twins (Stewart) 7:10 PM CT

Spencer Turnbull is a former first round pick and he is getting a look at the MLB level this September. He faced Minnesota last week and allowed six runs but on just six hits and his FIP is only 2.55 in his five MLB innings despite the high ERA. He hasn’t allowed a home run and has allowed just one walk.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Twins have a team OPS of just .718 over the past 24 games, down to .670 over the past four games. The Twins and Tigers have averaged just 8.5 runs per game in 16 meetings and cold Autumn conditions are expected in Minneapolis tonight. In 10 of the last 14 games Detroit has scored four or fewer runs and the Tigers have a .670 team OPS the past two weeks, averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” category=”bobby-dalton-baseball” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Kohl Stewart has offered great promise for the Twins down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA in seven appearances, never allowing more than three runs. He pitched six innings with only one unearned run and three hits allowed vs. the Tigers last week and the team’s top pick in the 2013 draft has great potential. In favorable pitching conditions both young arms should have success against marginal lineups Tuesday night.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Don’t miss Bobby Dalton’s 15* Best Bet Tuesday night in the final week of the MLB regular season! Dalton has won three 10* picks in a row and is 3-1 on 15* picks this baseball season! Get the pick on its own ($39.99) or as part of a guaranteed profit HIGH FIVE offer ($49.99).

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Sunday

#917/918 ‘UNDER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann) at Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) 12:05 PM CT

Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t had a lot of success since the first half of his first season with the Tigers in 2016. This season Zimmermann missed about six weeks on the DL but overall his campaign has provided steady returns for a Tigers team that offered some competitive results prior to the current 11-game slide. Zimmermann hasn’t taken a loss and he owns a 3.51 FIP on the season in over 41 innings of work. His K/9 is currently its highest since his rookie season in 2009 and he still possesses the great command that has kept him in the big leagues into his 30s.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

J.A. Happ is proving his great 2016 season wasn’t a fluke with strong returns in 2018. He has top 20 numbers in ERA, K/9, and FIP among AL starters and he certainly has a case to be on the AL All Star team for the Blue Jays. Just once in 16 starts has Happ allowed more than four runs. Detroit is able to post a righty-heavy lineup as they did yesterday but right-handers are batting just .222 vs. Happ this season.

Mired in the current losing streak the Tigers are batting .209 with a .582 team OPS the past 11 games, scoring an average of 2.6 runs per game. Detroit has been one of the AL’s top ‘under’ teams at 48-34-2 including 25-14-1 in road games. The Jays are batting just .238 with a 3.9 runs per game over the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching and while both bullpens have had some shaky recent moments this Sunday day game should mirror Saturday’s game, a contest with only 14 combined hits.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Nelly’s went 2-0 yesterday, now 16-4 our last 20 totals and on a 24-13 overall run since late May. Get Sunday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has won Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers the past two days and wrapped up a +46.0 unit gain in June. Don’t miss Sunday’s MLB Trips-2-Win 2/3 with Dalton on an 18-6 AL run!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#926 Cincinnati Reds (Romano) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 6:10 PM CT

24-year-old Sal Romano is an imposing figure on the mound as one of the largest in stature players in the game. He showed some promise in 16 starts on a bad Reds team last season but he hasn’t taken a step forward this season, struggling through 14 starts with a 5.67 ERA for a last place team. Romano has better numbers at home and he has been very effective against right-handed batters with a .225 batting average against and his season xFIP is a bit more respectable at 4.82. He delivered a fine start at Kansas City in his last outing and in six of his last eleven outings he has allowed two or fewer runs.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Left-hander Matt Boyd has posted a 3.23 ERA this season but his xFIP is actually higher than Romano’s at 4.98. Boyd has benefitted from a .232 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are marginal with a 7.0 K/9. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher and pitching in Cincinnati that could be a problem compared with his spacious home park in Detroit. Not surprisingly Boyd has much worse numbers on the road with the Tigers just 13-20 in road games this season despite being a surprise team in the AL so far this season.

The Reds have a bullpen edge in this matchup with a 2.92 ERA over the past 10 games in relief innings and overall this season both teams have fared better vs. left-handed pitching to give Cincinnati the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup. Since starting the season 8-27 the Reds have played exactly .500 ball since May 8 including winning four of the past six games ahead of this home stand. Detroit has quietly won five in a row but they did so with light scoring as the Tigers have been held to four or fewer runs in 12 of the past 15 games. Trust the oddmakers and support the small favorite tonight despite the contrasting records for these squads.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night to make it a 12-4 run the past eight days as part of a great start to June, profitable in 13 of 17 updates this month. Join the Big Dog through the All Star break for just $169!

Nelly’s was a winner on the diamond last night as well as we are 16-7 the past 22 days in baseball picks. Get daily updates with our All Star Break subscription through July 15 for only $149!

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#921 Kansas City Royals (Vargas) -125 over Detroit Tigers (Sanchez) 6:10 PM CT

Jason Vargas has fallen off his brilliant early season pace but he has still delivered a great season and is a candidate for a good outing tonight with the Royals still in AL Wild Card contention. Vargas had dramatic home and road splits early in the season but those numbers are almost identical now as he has allowed just 11 runs in his last four road starts spanning 22 innings. Facing Cleveland in two of his last three starts has worn on his numbers but tonight he gets to face a depleted Detroit lineup.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”newness” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Tigers are 7-22 since early August riding a current five-game slide with just 11 runs scored. Detroit has a .727 team OPS the past 13 games with just 3.5 runs scored per game. Kansas City picked up a big series win over the weekend in Minnesota and won Monday to start this series. A four-game home stand with the Twins starts Thursday as a golden opportunity is ahead for Kansas City.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”nameaz” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

The Royals have outscored the Tigers by 15 runs in 14 games this season and the offense has picked up the pace with a .751 team OPS the past 24 games. Anibal Sanchez owns a 6.95 season ERA and after some mild midseason success he has been a disaster of late with a 9.55 ERA his last five starts, allowing 38 hits in 21 innings. The Royals knocked him out in the fourth inning a few weeks ago and Detroit has had brutal bullpen results all season.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”random” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Join us for Tuesday Night Baseball with a guaranteed 10* from Bobby Dalton for $24.99. Dalton is on a 10-4 MLB run hitting six of his last seven 10* Best Bets. Nelly’s Baseball has turned in four straight winning weeks with nearly 12* of profit with a 16-6 run on the diamond and we have a guaranteed underdog play lined up tonight.

Posted on

Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#916 Detroit Tigers (Fulmer) -135 over Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 6:10 PM CT

Michael Fulmer has delivered a stellar sophomore season for the Tigers who still are lurking in AL Central race. Fulmer had his worst start of the season last week vs. this same Royals lineup and he’ll get the opportunity for redemption at home Tuesday night. The Royals are a marginal offensive team even with a recent uptick in production and the season road numbers are ugly with a .240 team batting average and a .703 OPS. Danny Duffy beat the Tigers in the matchup against Fulmer last week but he didn’t pitch particularly well allowing nine hits and four runs in five innings of work. Detroit is one of MLB’s very best hitting teams vs. left-handed pitching with an .849 OPS and the Tigers have taken six of 11 meetings in this series.

The Tigers are a winning team in July while 25-22 at home on the season. The Royals have struggled on the road and while Kansas City is closer to the top of the AL Central than Detroit the Tigers have the superior scoring differential on the season. Duffy has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts and he is just 4-6 with a 4.68 ERA over his last 11 starts despite the Royals having more success in that span than in the first month of the season when Duffy excelled. Fulmer should bounce back as he has been the far more reliable starter this season despite last Thursday’s result. The Royals also had to use seven relievers last night to win in extra-innings to negate the bullpen edge Kansas City might normally have.

[displayProduct type=”carousel” sort=”lowhigh” productnamecolor=”#ffffff” pricecolor=”#ffffff” textcolor=”#ffffff” carousel=image,title,price,button,excerpt]

Posted on

Free MLB Pick – Tuesday, June 21

#959 Seattle Mariners (Paxton) + over Detroit Tigers (Verlander) 6:10 PM CT

After showing some promise in a brief call-up in 2014 James Paxton proved not ready for primetime struggling at the big league level last season. At nearly age 28, patience may be wearing thin for the left-hander with a big-time arm but in four starts so far this season Paxton may be finally realizing his potential. His strikeout rate in the small sample is nearly 11.9 K/9 and he owns a 2.86 ERA. Paxton has taken two losses in his four starts but seven unearned runs have been factored in with some tough breaks in his first two starts back with the Mariners. Paxton owns a very low ERA and FIP despite a .403 BABIP that is sure to come down and with his swing-and-miss rate the ceiling is very high for Paxton to help the Mariners chase down a playoff spot. Opposing Paxton will be one of the American League’s best and most well known starters with Justin Verlander in the midst of a resurgent season. Verlander has been a big part of keeping the Tigers afloat at .500 so far this season but there is reason to be a little suspicious of the numbers for the former MVP and Cy Young winner. His BABIP is .271 as he has caught some breaks and his groundball rate is very similar to last season when the right-hander greatly struggled and well off the pace of his best seasons. Detroit has not been the strong hitting team vs. left-handed pitching that they generally have been in recent seasons, going just 8-10 this year vs. left-handed starters and batting 20 points worse as a team in those matchups. In contrast the Mariners are one of the league’s best scoring teams vs. right-handed pitching posting 5.3 runs per game. Seattle is in a bit of a slide having lost seven of the last nine games on this long road trip but in last night’s lengthy game the Mariners out-hit the Tigers 19-14 despite the loss and Seattle’s bullpen was preserved better than Detroit’s with the Tigers having five relievers pitch at least an inning. Verlander is capable of another good outing but Seattle looks promising in a bounce-back spot with underdog pricing.

[displayProduct type=”list” category=”nellys-football” perpage=”3″ list=image,title,price,button,excerpt]