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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#655 North Dakota +6.5 over Milwaukee 7:00 PM CT

Milwaukee won just nine games last season including closing the season with 11 consecutive Horizon League defeats. That was a veteran team and only two starters have returned. Illinois transfer Te’Jon Lucas was a big addition for the program and the team has much more promise this season.

The 3-1 start has featured two non-division I wins however and also includes a home loss to Western Michigan. The only division I win came Friday vs. UMKC, a nine-point result despite a big rebounding and free throw shooting edge. North Dakota rates similarly to the two teams Milwaukee has split with but is 1-2 on the season having had to play road games with Gonzaga and Valparaiso.

The numbers are meaningless for the Fighting Hawks so far this season given the tough assignment with Gonzaga and this is a team in a coaching transition after a long run under Brian Jones as Paul Sather is leading the team this season. This squad has a mix of experience with two seniors and two freshmen in the starting five but this year’s team is less reliant on 3-point shooting and should have opportunities against the shaky defense for the Panthers.

The presence of Lucas has overvalued Milwaukee so far this season and he can’t do it all and the limited size and depth for the Panthers could be a problem in this matchup as another close game looks likely.

Nelly’s is already 9-5 this basketball season, following hot early season runs the past two years including 31-16 in November and December last season! Join us for a basketball subscription with nearly 90* of profit the past two seasons combined.

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#750 Florida Atlantic +8.5 over Georgia Southern 4:00 PM CT (@Bahamas) 

Florida Atlantic finished just 12-19 last season going only 6-12 in Conference USA though they did play most of the top teams in the conference tough. This was one of the worst shooting teams in the nation last season but the roster has turned over substantially for new head coach Dusty May. Two freshmen have earned starting roles but Mississippi State transfer Xavian Stapleton has been the big addition to key instant improvement for the Owls.

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Florida Atlantic is 2-0 this season and Sunday’s win over UCF was a notable result with an 80-79 win in Orlando. The offensive numbers are improved and this could be a team that makes a bit of noise in Conference USA and in this Bahamas tournament. Georgia Southern plays very quickly but has struggled defensively, allowing very strong outside shooting numbers in a 2-0 start to the season. The Eagles have been a bad free throw shooting team despite the many opportunities at the line and in Statesboro on Tuesday Georgia Southern struggled to pull away from George Mason in a high-scoring win.

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The turnaround to a Friday game in the Bahamas makes for a daunting scheduling spot as well to give an advantage to the Owls. The Eagles have three returning senior starters but also lost four senior contributors from last season’s 21-12 squad for Mark Byington. FAU should have a significant size edge in this game with three 6’7” starters vs. a Georgia Southern team that plays one of the smallest lineups in the country. The win over UCF doesn’t look like a fluke as Florida Atlantic should be considered an improved team that is a threat for an upset in this afternoon Showcase game.

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Free NCAA Pick Thursday

#517 Fresno State +10.5 over TCU 8:00 PM CT

Fresno State is one of the last programs to play a division I game, as they defeated Alaska-Anchorage on November 6 and this is the only game on the early season slate until November 22. The Bulldogs went 21-11 last season and only once all season did Fresno State lose by more than 12 points. Two senior starters are gone for Fresno State and new head coach Justin Hutson should have a lot to work with for another competitive season.

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TCU won 21 games under Jamie Dixon last season but the 12-0 start featured one top 50 win. Two frontcourt seniors are now gone including Vladimir Brodziansky who was one of the top players in the Big XII last season. Jaylen Fisher also had to have another knee surgery and will miss the early part of the season. TCU has struggled in a light early season schedule beating Cal-State Bakersfield by just five points and beating Oral Roberts by just 17.

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This is a very young group with TCU playing four freshmen in the early season eight-man rotation and turnovers have been a big issue for the offense. TCU has shot 66 percent from the line so far this season as points will be left off the board for the Frogs tonight laying a double-digit spread despite a big decline in offensive effectiveness so far this season. The Bulldogs have three senior starters for a big experience edge and a lot is going to be poured into this big opportunity for Fresno State and the first big game for Hutson leading the program.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#593 Oakland +20.5 over Michigan State 1:30 PM CT

9-1 Michigan State looks like an elite national contender already with wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame while sitting 2-0 in Big Ten play. This is dangerous stretch in the schedule as the Spartans will be a heavy favorite in every game until Big Ten play resumes in January. After cruising to a 25-point win over Southern Utah, the matchup with Oakland will be much more difficult while also playing away from home in this Detroit showcase setting.

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This will be one of the biggest games of the season for Oakland playing close to home against the state’s top basketball program. The Grizzlies took Michigan State to overtime two years ago and lost by just 12 last season. The Grizzlies play at a reckless fast pace but also shoot well from the line and take care of the ball reasonably well despite the high number of possessions. Michigan State’s only loss came in a high scoring game and the Spartans have had issues with turnovers and free throw shooting, areas of vulnerability that can add up more significantly in a high-possession game.

Michigan State has also surrendered over 36 percent 3-point shooting this season and an Oakland team unafraid to shoot from long range will have an opportunity if they catch some hot shooting. After lopsided November losses against Syracuse and Kansas the Grizzlies have shown some growth in recent weeks going 4-1 the last five games and even if former Illinois player Kendrick Nunn has to continue to sit out for Oakland this inflated line is adjusted for his absence. Oakland picked up wins against Georgia and Clemson last year and this is going to be a much bigger game for the underdog.

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Nelly’s is 12-5 our last 17 basketball picks while going 2-0 in our past two 2-for-1 offers. Get today’s 2-for-1 package for only $15. Big E is 6-3 his last nine – don’t miss a 10* Biggie in a ESPN2 game today for only $9.94. Bobby Dalton has his next Trips-2-Win 2/3 offer with a 35-20 run in 2/3 basketball packages while Maximum went 3-1 last Saturday and has a four-pack in college hoops today!