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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#926 Cincinnati Reds (Romano) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 6:10 PM CT

24-year-old Sal Romano is an imposing figure on the mound as one of the largest in stature players in the game. He showed some promise in 16 starts on a bad Reds team last season but he hasn’t taken a step forward this season, struggling through 14 starts with a 5.67 ERA for a last place team. Romano has better numbers at home and he has been very effective against right-handed batters with a .225 batting average against and his season xFIP is a bit more respectable at 4.82. He delivered a fine start at Kansas City in his last outing and in six of his last eleven outings he has allowed two or fewer runs.

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Left-hander Matt Boyd has posted a 3.23 ERA this season but his xFIP is actually higher than Romano’s at 4.98. Boyd has benefitted from a .232 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are marginal with a 7.0 K/9. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher and pitching in Cincinnati that could be a problem compared with his spacious home park in Detroit. Not surprisingly Boyd has much worse numbers on the road with the Tigers just 13-20 in road games this season despite being a surprise team in the AL so far this season.

The Reds have a bullpen edge in this matchup with a 2.92 ERA over the past 10 games in relief innings and overall this season both teams have fared better vs. left-handed pitching to give Cincinnati the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup. Since starting the season 8-27 the Reds have played exactly .500 ball since May 8 including winning four of the past six games ahead of this home stand. Detroit has quietly won five in a row but they did so with light scoring as the Tigers have been held to four or fewer runs in 12 of the past 15 games. Trust the oddmakers and support the small favorite tonight despite the contrasting records for these squads.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night to make it a 12-4 run the past eight days as part of a great start to June, profitable in 13 of 17 updates this month. Join the Big Dog through the All Star break for just $169!

Nelly’s was a winner on the diamond last night as well as we are 16-7 the past 22 days in baseball picks. Get daily updates with our All Star Break subscription through July 15 for only $149!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#906 Cincinnati Reds (Castillo) -125 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Cole) 5:40 PM CT

Luis Castillo is 2-6 through 12 starts for the struggling Reds but his ERA is 3.45 and he has an impressive 9.5 K/9. This will be Pittsburgh’s first look at the 24-year-old. The Reds can hit, with a .782 team OPS vs. right-handers on the season and an .829 overall team OPS the past 25 games, scoring 5.7 runs per game. Cincinnati has a 13-11 record heading into this series in August as they are a threat if they can even get competent pitching.

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Former #1 pick Gerrit Cole is a much bigger name on the mound but he has had a marginal year for the Pirates with a 4.16 ERA in 26 starts. He hasn’t been sharp of late with 12 runs allowed in his last three starts and he hasn’t been close to his strikeout and walk rates from his breakout 2015 season. Cole has a 4.30 FIP as there isn’t anything hiding in the numbers and run support has been a problem with the Pirates posting a .691 team OPS in the past 25 games.

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Pittsburgh has been outscored by 27 runs so far in August and the pitching staff has allowed five or more runs in 11 of the last 16 games. Cincinnati is also 9-2 vs. the Pirates this season outscoring Pittsburgh by 25 runs in the first 11 meetings this season and Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500 on the road this season.

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Nelly’s baseball turned in another winner last night for a current 9-5 run in late August MLB action. Join us for our first official pick of the football season with a college play today for only. Bobby Dalton and the Big E are both featuring huge NFL preseason selections in guaranteed offers today as well!