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Saturday Hoops & Hockey

Nelly’s Basketball is on a 15-7 NCAA run since January 12 and we have three college picks for the big Saturday schedule! Our last two 2/3 offers have both gone 3-0, Wednesday and last Saturday! We are approaching February where we own an 82-53 record in basketball the past three years and have won 13 of the past 16 seasons. Consider joining for the monthly subscription and get today’s picks included!

The Big E cashed his 20* last night and his next big play is a big one in the A-10 with his next conference game of the year ready to go. Don’t miss his 20* A-10 Conference Game of the Year Saturday for $20.94!

The Big Dog is 16-7 in hockey picks since January 21 and he has a $10 afternoon offer and a 10* Best Bet in the evening schedule in NHL action. College Basketball options will be coming on Saturday as well!

Check back for Super Bowl offers later next week!

FREE PICK SATURDAY: #626 West Virginia -4 over Florida 1:00 PM CT

Florida will be an easy team to root for this season as the team has rallied after the scary situation with Keyontae Johnson’s health. With three straight wins the Gators are now 6-3 in SEC play but only the home win over Tennessee stands out and the Volunteers are clearly sliding from their hot start to the season. Florida has faced the 13th rated SEC schedule and now leaves conference play for a very difficult road test. West Virginia is only 4-3 in the Big XII but the three losses have been vs. top 20 caliber squads with two of those games on the road. The only home loss all season came by two points to Texas in a wild finish of a game the Mountaineers led most of the second half. Bob Huggins is leading a team that likely can wind up as a top 30 offensive and defensive efficiency team by season’s end and this is as usual a team with great numbers in the rebounding and turnover departments. Florida has been a strong outside shooting team but this isn’t a group that takes a high volume of 3-point shots and the current lineup is young and small as handling this as handling the furthest road venue of the season so far will be a challenge. Three of Florida’s four losses have come by double-digits and against top 15 caliber teams the Gators are 0-2 with losses by 12 and 15. Despite one of the most favorite schedules in the SEC Florida grades as the 10th best defense in the conference and Michael White’s team has lost the past two years in this annual contest with the Big XII.

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Free Pick Sunday

NFL Week 16 features a big Sunday schedule with several notable playoff scenarios.

Big E has a 15* Game of the Month today while Bobby Dalton has lined up FIVE selections in a High Five 3/5 offer.

Trios are available from Point Train and Maximum, while Nelly’s has a 2-for-1 offer Sunday.

Don’t miss basketball opportunities with Nelly’s starting our NBA season 1-0 yesterday while Big E and Bobby Dalton have been off to steady starts in college action.

FREE PICK SUNDAY #473 Atlanta Falcons +11 over Kansas City Chiefs 12:00 PM CT

The Chiefs have won nine in a row but it was another unconvincing final score last week. That was a tough matchup in New Orleans and a fourth road game in the past five games. This home game might provide a better opportunity with the Falcons pouring a lot into last week’s home date with Tampa Bay, only to find a familiar fate. Atlanta is 4-10 but +2 in net scoring this season. Three of the past four Atlanta losses and five losses this season have come vs. elite teams and the Falcons have allowed just 21 points per game over the past four road games. The Chiefs have struggled to pull away from losing teams in the past two home games with single-score wins in now six consecutive games on the 9-0 run since Week 6. The Chiefs have not technically clinched the #1 seed in the AFC yet but the scenarios that would need to align have such a low probability that there is not going to be any urgency to push things this week. For Atlanta in a lost season this is an opportunity to face the champions and this squad has had several commendable showings vs. top teams this season and the numbers and personnel of a much better team than its record.

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Christmas Day Offerings

The Christmas Day schedule is a busy one this year with NFL, Bowl, NCAA, and NBA action. Bobby Dalton has picks out early for Friday including a bowl Best Bet looking to add to a strong start to the postseason while building on a great recent NFL run, going 18-8 the past 5 weeks in NFL action!

Big E has Biggie plays for NFL, NCAA Football, and NCAA Basketball Friday as well – just $9.94 each! Big E enters the bowl season on a 9-1 run in College Football Biggie plays!

Nelly’s has turned in back-to-back winning weeks in basketball and we have a pick for Friday’s daytime schedule. We also have our first bowl 2* lined up for Saturday, after completing a nearly 60% regular season including a 14-5 run heading into the bowls.

Point Train has also released bowl & NFL picks for Friday as well – with a 3-game package including two Christmas Day picks!

Check out all offers from Nelly’s and our handicappers and don’t miss Green Sheet Issue #23 – Rating 4 and 5 Keys went 3-0 last week!

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Bowl Season is Here – NBA opens!

Many weren’t ready for the bowl season to start yesterday without the typical break after championship weekend but Bobby Dalton pounced on the opening game and delivered a convincing winner on the OVER, clearing the total by 17 points in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Don’t miss his next picks!

Nelly’s has picks in both bowl games Tuesday looking to produce our fifth winning bowl season in the past six years! We finished the regular season at nearly 60% in college football including a 14-5 run since early November.

Basketball is also in full effect with Nelly’s riding back-to-back winning weeks to start the season 8-4 through Dec. 21. The NBA season is starting today and we’ll look to start our fourth straight over 60% NBA season in the coming days.

The Big E, Maximum Sports, and Point Train will have upcoming releases in bowl and NFL action as well with Big E also delivering excellent results in his college basketball Biggies!

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HUGE DECEMBER NFL START FOR THE BIG DOG!

Bobby Dalton turned in an outrageous Week 13 in the NFL going 7-1 for 88% winners with a huge Sunday plus winners Monday & Tuesday! It was a third straight profitable NFL week for the Big Dog with a combined 15-5 run in Weeks 11, 12 and 13 including going 2-0 on Thursdays!

Week 14 starts with a huge game in a rematch of Super Bowl LIII between prominent teams and coaches. Get Bobby Dalton’s 7* TOTAL guaranteed to win in Thursday’s Pats/Rams game for $19!

Or join Bobby Dalton for the entire weekend Thursday to Monday for a $79 flat fee with all updates in college and pro football.

The 2020-21 College Basketball season is underway, Big E and Bobby Dalton have had several releases already this season and Nelly’s just started this week. We turned in a winner Wednesday night as Boise State upset BYU and we are PLUS over 100* the past three basketball seasons for huge gains. We went 17-8 in college hoops and 9-6 in the NBA in December 2020 for a big month and while this December looks a bit different in the basketball schedule we still expect to have some great opportunities.

The Big E has a huge week planned with his 25* NFL Game of the Year set for Week 14. Big E won his NCAA 25* Game of the Year earlier this season and he turned in a big week last week cashing in all four of his Biggie plays including his 20* Pac-12 Game of the Year. Join the B.E.S.T. for his weekly package or check out daily Biggie plays in football and basketball.

Point Train went 5-1 in football picks last weekend including a win in the highest rated 5-unit pick and a 3-0 sweep on Sunday. Don’t miss the next big play from Point Train Football.

Check out Green Sheet Issue #21 for an early look at every football game and a jump start on the football weekend. NFL Keys are 7-3 the past two weeks and our Rating 5 Keys are 13-9 on the season.

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NFL Wednesday? Green Sheet #20

NFL is having a game today – we aren’t getting involved and none of our handicappers have picks but it is a unique set-up with Week 12 finally coming to a close. Week 12 was a big week for the Green Sheet with four of five NFL Key Selections winning!

Green Sheet Issue #20 will be sent out on Wednesday afternoon – get it for just $12!

There is not a NFL game on Thursday this week but the college week will start with a few games on the map Thursday and Friday before a big December Saturday.

College Basketball is also live with Big E releasing daily selections including a big Jimmy V Classic pick Wednesday night. Dalton won a 7* total yesterday and is also having occasional early season updates. Expect Nelly’s to start basketball next week sometime coming off three straight huge seasons.

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Big Dog 2-0 Playoff Start

Bobby Dalton is 2-0 in the NBA Playoffs with a pair of Game 1 winners, including last night’s big upset with Portland.

Join Dalton for his first 10* Best Bet Top Play of the restart (66.7% in regular season 10* picks) with an afternoon 10* Best Bet Top Play Total for Game 2 action – pay only after you win!

Nelly’s Baseball had an ‘OVER’ that cashed in the 2nd inning last night, we have another great Total Domination play for Wednesday night – $15 pay after you win! We hit over 63% in the NBA regular season and we are ready to get on a roll in the playoffs as well with an afternoon selection.

Free Pick Wednesday – 971/972 UNDER 12.5 Houston Astros (Valdez) at Colorado Rockies (Castellani) 7:40 PM CT

Coor’s Field brings very high totals but Framber Valdez has been an appealing option on the mound for the Astros. He filled a vital role for Houston last season as a spot starter and long reliever and so far in 2020 has a 1.90 ERA in nearly 24 innings. His strikeout-to-walk numbers are excellent and he has kept the ball in the ballpark while featuring a great groundball rate. The Rockies have cooled off from a hot start to the season with losses in five of the last six games and have scored just 18 runs over the past five games combined. In two games in Houston Colorado managed only two combined runs and over 20 innings these teams combined for just six total runs the past two days. Colorado has positive splits vs. left-handers but overall the Rockies have just a .677 team OPS in the past six games. After a slow start the Astros have climbed back to AL contention but it has been with pitching, not with the star-studded offense. Houston has won six straight games, including the past four by a single run. The Astros have allowed only seven runs combined in those six games, winning each of the past four games despite only scoring a total of nine runs. On the season Houston has a team OPS of only .657 vs. right-handers and they have hit more home runs vs. lefties this season despite 279 fewer at bats. Ryan Castellani is making his third MLB start and he is an unlikely candidate to be in the rotation after a rough season at AAA in 2019. That was a short injury-riddled campaign however and the 2014 2nd round pick has high-ceiling stuff. So far in 2020 his ERA is 1.04 with a 10.4 K/9. He has been very fortunate so far as that isn’t a sustainable pace but he could still provide an effective start against a Houston lineup that shockingly has a worse team wOBA than the Royals and Giants. The ‘under’ is 13-9-1 in Rockies games this season and the move to Denver has brought a four-run swing from yesterday’s game that finished 2-1 in 11 innings with no runs scored until the 10th inning. Both teams have great bullpen numbers in the past handful of games including a 0.59 ERA for Houston and the great starting efforts so far in this series leaves most top relief options available today.

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Big Dog Best Bet Tonight

Bobby Dalton is 6-2 in MLB 10* Best Bets this season! He won his Trips-2-Win offer last night and he has a big TOTAL play for Wednesday’s schedule in his next guaranteed offer. Add to that 75% Best Bet run with tonight’s selection for $19!

Nelly’s Baseball has added back-to-back winning nights on the diamond and we’ll aim to win in Interleague action Wednesday with a side selection for only $15!

Dalton also has picks in NHL and NBA action for Wednesday!

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NBA Restart in 48 Hours!

On Thursday, July 30 the NBA will return with the start of an eight-game conclusion to the regular season to finalize the seeding for the playoffs. We discussed each team with notes and standings in our NBA Restart Preview Guide a few weeks ago.

While the new format with a possible play-in round for the #8 spot is alluring, ultimately the positioning changes won’t be of critical importance to most of the contenders. Most teams will simply be looking to stay healthy and get back in sync for a playoff run. That will still mean some great opportunities, particularly for certain underdog situations in games that may only carry meaning on one side.

Once the playoffs begin, it could be wild run of closely contested series. The long layoff and the lack of a home court advantage will certainly penalize the favorites that built great records before the break, and certainly this could be a second straight season with a surprise NBA champion. The NBA playoffs are notoriously chalky but that may not be the case in this unusual shortened season run where every team will be at risk to have juggle its roster in key stretches.

Here are the top contenders and the adjusted NBA title prices, some of which have changed from the numbers in our NBA Restart Preview Guide which was put together several weeks ago:

Los Angeles Lakers (+250): Everyone will be expecting a LA/LA Western Conference Finals but the Lakers are moving forward without Avery Bradley who started 44 games and was a great defensive asset. Rajon Rondo is also likely out until September. Anthony Davis may open up the restart on the shelf along with Dwight Howard, though the Lakers have very little risk of losing the #1 seed in the West.

Milwaukee Bucks (+250): The Bucks are a massive favorite to win the Eastern Conference and almost certainly will be the #1 seed in the playoffs. A franchise and city in a long title drought will have a harder path than they deserved in these circumstances as no team was likely hurt more (in terms of championship probability) than the Bucks. Milwaukee had rested Giannis Antetokounmpo consistently to prepare for this run. Adding to the challenge has been the opportunity for several quality East teams that underachieved to get healthy.

Los Angeles Clippers (+333): The Clippers have pulled a slightly easier schedule than the Lakers in the 8 games to finalize the seeding but 5.5 games is an overwhelming hurdle even if the Clippers take the opener with their rival. This group isn’t a lock to hold on to the #2 seed as Denver or Utah will try to make a run at passing them up. That is of particular importance with Houston lurking as the likely #5 or #6 seed though many seeding scenarios are still in play in the middle of the West playoff standings. The Clippers have roster issues as well with Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrel, and Lou Williams all leaving the team for various situations as this team could be vulnerable.

Given the unusual nature of this playoff season the variance figures to be higher and we’ll be looking to take a shot with some of the sleepers listed deeper in the odds. Be sure to join us for our NBA Restart Package for only $199.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton have both had winning starts through the first five days of the MLB season, check out daily picks or join for the rest of the MLB season!

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NBA Restart July 30

The NBA will restart on July 30 with an eight-game finish to the regular season to finalize the seeding for the playoffs, with a new possible twist in play for the final spot in each conference.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Join us for the entire duration from July through October,  featuring nearly three months of daily updates for just $199. 

We will be posting a short preview guide for the restart this week – email us at nelly@nellysports.com to receive a copy when it is sent out (likely by July 17), including a look at each remaining team and several win total predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS (Odds to Win Conference):

Milwaukee Bucks (-185): The Bucks are a massive favorite to win the Eastern Conference and almost certainly will be the #1 seed in the playoffs. There is no home court advantage ahead however and the Bucks were ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals last season in six games against Toronto despite being the #1 seed. A franchise and city in a long title drought will have a harder path than they deserved in these circumstances.

Toronto Raptors (+600): No one expected the Raptors to be in same position they were last season without Kawhi Leonard but Toronto is on pace to again be the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. At +600 to win the East few are banking on another long postseason run but the restart does provide an opportunity for a team that has proven many wrong before.

Boston Celtics (+550): The Celtics are +550 to win the Eat despite being closer to falling to the #4 spot than moving up to the #2 spot at the restart. Gordon Hayward is also expected to leave the bubble in September for the birth of a child in the middle of possibly the conference finals if the Celtics get that far. Respect for Brad Stevens in these unusual circumstances is carrying some weight.

Miami Heat (+1100): The Heat are a surprise top four team and will be saddled with a tough schedule out of the restart with four difficult games including facing the three teams above them in the standings. Indiana and Philadelphia are just two games behind Miami, though the urgency in playing for seeding may be less significant in this format… this content continues in our NBA Restart preview guide.