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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#924 Oakland Athletics (Fiers) -115 over New York Yankees (Happ) 9:07 PM CT

Mike Fiers is 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 19 starts since May 1 as he has been the most reliable starter for the Athletics. He had a tough outing last week vs. Houston, the first time in that span of starts in which he had allowed more than three runs. Fiers has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of the past 12 starts and he has terrific home splits in 84 innings at home with a 2.89 ERA. Adding J.A. Happ was a great benefit last season for the Yankees but this year the left-hander has struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Happ has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts and the results have been getting worse with a 6.85 ERA in his last nine starts. Oakland is currently the odd team out in the AL Playoff picture despite a 72-53 record but the Athletics are 21-10 vs. left-handed starters this season and 41-22 at the Coliseum. New York has great potential vs. right-handers but the power numbers are likely to slip in this spacious ballpark. New York’s offense has been held in check in the last week and this is a dangerous series ahead of a highly anticipated interleague series at Dodger Stadium this coming weekend. Oakland’s offense has cooled in the last month but this team is 14-6 in the past 20 games including a big series win over Houston and a 10-3 mark the past 13 home dates.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#954 Miami Marlins (Smith) + over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly) 6:10 PM CT

There is a lot to like about Caleb Smith’s season line for the Marlins as the former Yankees draft pick has a 3.30 ERA in 90 innings. His 11.0 K/9 would be one of the top marks in the NL if he qualified and having a winning record pitching for the NL’s worst team is no small feat. Take away a disastrous start to the season the Marlins have been fairly competitive however, going 30-32 since mid-May and they enter this series finale having won four of the past five games, beating Arizona both Friday and Sunday. A big part of the turnaround has been consistent starting pitching with longer outings boosting the bullpen as the offense remains limited. Arizona prefers to face left-handers but facing a lefty of Smith’s caliber isn’t a routine assignment. At exactly .500 the Diamondbacks will be worth monitoring as the trade deadline approaches as this team was a buyer last season before a September crash and again going all-in for a shot a wild card game in a crowded NL picture isn’t likely. Arizona is 15-19 since mid-June and the lineup has been ice cold hitting .209 the past five games with a .633 OPS. 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has provided average results this season and he has struggled on the road with a 4.68 ERA. Kelly has zero wins in his past seven starts and can be vulnerable to the home run. Arizona has a 5.19 ERA in the bullpen the past 10 games as well as the Diamondbacks look like a risky favorite on the road Monday night.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#929/930 ‘OVER 10’ New York Mets (Matz) at Minnesota Twins (Pineda) 7:10 PM CT

Michael Pineda has allowed just one run in four of his last five starts to best his season line that features a 4.56 ERA. His walk rate has been extremely low this season but he has been victim to 16 home runs in 17 starts. Pineda hasn’t shown a big preference for pitching at Target Field and right-handed hitters have pretty strong numbers against him. Steven Matz simply hasn’t developed into the quality starter the Mets thought they had when he broke into the league in 2015 and 2016. Matz is 12-24 the past three seasons with a 4.68 ERA and he was removed from the rotation in early July after a run of lousy outings, allowing 24 runs over his last five starts. He didn’t fare any better as a reliever allowing two runs in just over two innings and he now has to face a lineup with an .868 season OPS vs. left-handed pitchers while Matz owns a 7.07 road ERA on the season. Minnesota took two of three from Cleveland to start the second half in a huge series and while Minnesota hasn’t matched its amazing May pace in recent weeks the scoring remains strong, averaging 5.3 runs per game since June started and leading baseball in home runs. The ‘over’ is 28-17 in Mets road games and while Target Field has averaged only 9.1 runs per game, the summer weather is much more conducive to scoring after some cold weather games the first two months brought the average down. New York also owns a 5.55 bullpen ERA on the season. These teams split two games in April with a combined 37 runs despite better pitchers in both games on both sides. While the Mets have been a dysfunctional group that has slipped out of the NL wild card race, the offense has plenty of promise and has a steady .771 team OPS the past 20 games, hitting 31 home runs in that span. The Mets have scored at least three runs in 11 consecutive road games and Twins pitching has allowed four or more runs in 12 of the past 16 games. It is hot and humid in Minneapolis with the wind blowing a bit out to right and while at first glance a double-digit total at Target Field seems high, it can be justified with two shaky starters and struggling bullpens as well as home run power throughout both lineups.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 9’ Cleveland Indians (Bieber) at Texas Rangers (Minor) 1:05 PM CT

After dazzling in several starts late last season Shane Bieber carried high expectations in 2019 and that weight has grown with the injuries in the rotation for the Indians. Bieber has a decent 3.92 ERA but with a 3.30 xFIP and an amazing 11.4 K/9 this is clearly one of the AL’s very best starting pitchers. Bieber has allowed five or more runs three times in his last seven starts but his home and road splits are similar and he has also had eight starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. Mike Minor has overachieved with a 2.63 ERA next to a 4.02 xFIP but the strikeout numbers are there and Minor continues to provide reliable outcomes for the surprising Rangers. In each of his last 10 starts he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed and he has allowed an average of barely over one home run per nine innings, no small feat in Arlington. Minor has thrived at home with a 2.18 ERA and he has equally impressive splits vs. right-handers and left-handers. Cleveland has put up big numbers the past two days in this series but they got 10 runs last night on only 12 hits, fortunate to earn seven two-out RBI. It will be warm in Arlington with conditions that can favor offense but these are two elite AL starters and on an early start getaway game the number could be kept in check.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#904 Miami Marlins (Alcantara) +125 over St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) 6:10 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has dropped his ERA down to 3.80 on the season and while his 5.14 xFIP is alarming as are his very low strikeout rate and high walk rates, he has been getting the job done of late. His ERA is just 3.19 over his last eight starts and he has allowed only five earned runs over his past 27 innings. St. Louis prefers to face right-handed pitching but over the past two weeks the Cardinals have the worst OPS in all of MLB. In the past seven games the Cardinals have scored a total of 12 runs and having to play Sunday night won’t be helpful for the morale or fatigue of the squad facing long travel to Miami to start this series Monday night. Michael Wacha is still just 27 but his numbers have been challenging this season with a 6.30 ERA this season. With a 5.06 xFIP Wacha should have better numbers but a 5.8 BB/9 isn’t a path to success. Wacha hasn’t had a quality start since April 17 and his ERA is 7.99 since May started spanning four starts and his last two relief outings. The Marlins are 13-9 the past 22 games even with a current four-game slide and with a .756 team OPS the past two weeks the Marlins have been far more productive than the Cardinals who have posted a .641 team OPS in that span. Both bullpens have struggled of late but the Marlins have shown a slight improvement in the relief numbers in recent weeks and have received at least five innings from its starter in nine of the past 10 games to manage the workload while the Cardinals have had a starter clear five innings once in the past five games. St. Louis is just 11-19 on the road this season as this type of favoritism is hard to justify with Wacha’s struggles and with the Cardinals ice cold at the plate of late.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#969/970 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Oakland Athletics (Mengden) at Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 3:10 PM CT

Pitching for the Tigers Matthew Boyd isn’t getting a lot of attention but he has had an All Star caliber run in his first nine starts with a 3.15 ERA and a 10.8 K/9. He has now allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and his 2.86 FIP suggests it is a sustainable pace for the 28-year-old who has shown potential but inconsistency in past seasons. Oakland is the last place team in the AL West a year after making the playoffs and while Oakland has hit significantly better vs. left-handers they are batting with a .712 team OPS the past 23 games for marginal production.

That production bests the Tigers potential with Detroit’s lineup among the league’s worst in most offensive categories. The Tigers have the second highest strikeout rate in baseball while offering a very low walk rate and the second fewest home runs in MLB. That bodes well for Daniel Mengden in his second start of the season after posting great AAA numbers. Mengden was a useful starter for Oakland last year and while he allowed four runs in his 2019 debut he surrendered only five hits.

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Detroit has not topped five runs in 10 straight games to average just 2.4 runs per game. Oakland has posted 24 runs in the first two games of this series but the 17-run showing on Thursday featured only 16 hits and five unearned runs while these teams scored nine runs on only 13 hits last night. The weather in Detroit this afternoon should also favor pitching with cooler temperatures and the wind blowing win fairly strong from left-center.

Bobby Dalton has a big 4-play card in MLB Saturday as he looks for a third straight winning week while 3-1 in his last four Best Bets. Nelly’s MLB is 6-3 since Monday and we have a guaranteed afternoon total.

Bobby Dalton is 4-1 in the Conference Finals and is featuring a Game 3 side & total package in the NBA Saturday. Nelly’s is 2-0 in the Conference Finals and 10-6 in our last 16 playoff sides – don’t miss our Game 3 pick.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#956 St. Louis Cardinals (Wainwright) -140 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) 7:15 PM CT

Adam Wainwright owns a 4.71 ERA on the season but one bad start at Wrigley Field skews the numbers as Wainwright had posted four quality starts in his previous five starts before running into trouble in Chicago last Sunday. At home Wainwright owns a 3.00 ERA and he gets to face a struggling Pirates lineup with a .675 team OPS on the season.

Trevor Williams was a clear-cut regression candidate this spring after a strong 2018 season that saw his ERA finish 1.5 runs lower than his xFIP. His strikeout rate is again among the worst of eligible NL starters at just 6.6 K/9 and his xFIP is 4.35 this season despite a respectable 3.74 ERA. Williams has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in his last two starts and hasn’t allowed fewer than two runs in any of his last six starts.

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The offensive splits for the Cardinals are very clear with a .794 team OPS vs. right-handers and a .674 team OPS vs. left-handers. Against a righty last night the Cardinals had a big night and eventually torched the Pittsburgh pitching staff for 17 runs. Despite the big output the Cardinals still failed in 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position and didn’t hit a single home run in the game while having only one two-out RBI as the damage could have been even worse. Pittsburgh has a 5.98 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and St. Louis is 14-4 in the last 18 home games.

Check out a 10* Best Bet on the diamond from Bobby Dalton Friday or look for a MLB total from Nelly’s tonight.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#965/966 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) at Houston Astros (Peacock) 7:10 PM CT

There were 21 runs scored in Houston’s 11-10 loss to the Rangers but there were only 21 hits in that game for a bizarre scoring barrage led by seven home runs. Houston only had one hit with runners in scoring position in that game despite posting 10 runs and they only had five at-bats with runners in scoring position as the game proved to be an extreme outlier in scoring efficiency.

While Collin McHugh had a disastrous start Sunday he managed to record 10 outs and allowed Houston to only use three relievers with Will Harris and Ryan Pressly pitching minimally enough that they should still be available today with both of those relievers still clocking 0.00 ERAs on the season. The Houston bullpen has been outstanding this season but Brad Peacock has been very sharp in 16 innings of work for the Astros with a 3.40 FIP and a very low walk rate.

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Minnesota has great offensive numbers this season but they are coming off facing the Orioles to inflate the numbers over the weekend. With three games the past two days this could be a fatigued team in Houston but Jake Odorizzi has looked good so far this season with a 3.15 FIP and a 11.1 K/9. His walk rate has been high but he has also faced a tough set of four opponents.

This looks like an offensive showcase but Jose Altuve and Max Kepler could again be sitting out after both missed Sunday’s games and the oddsmakers have pushed this total to match the highest total in Houston this season despite the Athletics and Yankees visiting this season. Saturday’s 16-run outburst inflates the season numbers for the Twins who have scored four or fewer runs in nine of 19 games while Houston has scored four or fewer runs 13 times this season.

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Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton have been featuring regular NBA Playoff updates as well. The 1st round has been a mild disappointment after huge gains for both in the regular season but there are plenty of winners ahead with two months remaining in the playoffs. Dalton is back with a 10* for one of the big Game 4 matchups Monday.