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NBA is back + Free MLB Pick

The NBA is back – Nelly’s has hit 62.9% in the 2019-20 NBA season, going for our third straight NBA regular season at over 60%. We have a live 10-1-1 NBA run active as we were on a roll when things halted in March. Watch us get right back on track with a pick in the opening double-header for Thursday – $15 pay after you win! Consider joining for the entire NBA season for just $199!

Nelly’s MLB missed last night with a lead blown by one of the top MLB bullpens but we are ready to release our first MLB total of the season tonight. Win with that guaranteed pick for only $15 pay after you win, or join through the World Series for just $199.

Bobby Dalton is 2-0 in MLB 10* picks after a 2-0 night yesterday that included a 10* win and a sizable underdog cash! Join the Big Dog for Thursday Baseball and keep posted for his first NBA selection of the restart. Dalton also put together a strong horse racing card last weekend hitting 16 of 29 winners Friday-Sunday at Monmouth. He will be posting picks for the track Friday night with a six-race slate.

Here is a free pick for Thursday MLB:

#951 Chicago Cubs (Darvish) + over Cincinnati Reds (Castillo) 5:10 PM CT

The Reds lineup got a jolt last night as Nick Senzel and Mike Moustakas returned to action after it was feared that they would be out for weeks. A 9-0 lead was threatened however as Chicago made a run late in the eventual 12-7 defeat. Cincinnati scored 12 runs on only 10 hits and only had three at-bats with runners in scoring position, fewer than the Cubs had last night. Chicago’s bullpen has displayed some problems in the season’s first week but the late innings for the Reds have fared no better and Cincinnati has needed significant relief innings already in this series. Luis Castillo emerged as the Cincinnati ace last season and he pitched well in his 2020 debut with six strong innings, posting 11 strikeouts and allowing only one run. That outing came vs. the lowly Tigers however and Castillo allowed nine runs over four starts vs. Chicago last season including six runs allowed in his most recent two starts vs. the Cubs. Yu Darvish has the best strikeout rate of any active MLB starter and that was on display in his season debut despite a tough luck loss vs. Milwaukee last weekend. He struck out 45 Reds over five starts last season and remains a high ceiling option on the mound, while rarely generating this type of an underdog price since joining the popular Cubs.

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MLB Season Opens July 23

Baseball is finally ready to start its season on Thursday night!

We posted our usual MLB Preview Guide a few weeks ago with the below win total predictions for the abbreviated MLB season. We are ready to go and could have our first pick on opening night!

Daily updates via email and/or text are included with our 2020 MLB Season Subscription available for only $199 – with the season from late July to the end of October that is just ~$60 a month!

Bobby Dalton also expects to post regular MLB updates and has his season package available with a great history of success on the diamond.

Here are the win totals we posted in early July:

NL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Philadelphia Phillies: A third of the games for the Phillies will be against the Nats and the Braves, clear NL contenders. Add in 10 more games with a formidable Mets rotation and wins will be tough to come by for a limited offensive team. The Marlins pitching staff even offers some promise while the AL East draw won’t do the Phillies any favors. New acquisition Zack Wheeler has already questioned being able to finish the season with his first child on the way while putting the DH in the NL isn’t likely to benefit the Philadelphia lineup as much as other teams in the division with better offensive depth. Aaron Nola regressed last season and returning to his 2018 form isn’t likely in a short season as he has been a very slow starter with a 5.68 ERA in March/April in his career. Rookie Spencer Howard is likely the leading candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation with Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin at best average options after Nola. The Philadelphia bullpen is already littered with injuries for a unit that had limited promise to start with. 31½ doesn’t sound like an overwhelming figure, but the Phillies were just a .500 team in 2019 and haven’t topped .500 in a season since the 2011 campaign.  

NL CENTRAL

BEST BET: OVER 30½ Wins – Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers don’t have many household names in the rotation following rising star Brandon Woodruff but the Brewers should be well-suited for a short campaign as they can lean on the deep and versatile bullpen. Milwaukee is 55 games above .500 the past three years combined and last season made its great late season run without Christian Yelich. The Cubs and Pirates are surely candidates to decline in 2020 compared to last season while drawing a third of the schedule against the AL Central while completely avoiding the NL East and NL West teams is a huge plus for Milwaukee’s chances at returning to the playoffs for a third straight season. While Craig Counsell’s creativity may take a hit with the implementation of the DH in the NL this season, the Brewers have viable DH candidates in an aging Ryan Braun and defensively challenged Keston Hiura, while sluggers Ryon Healy and Logan Morrison are also in camp looking to possibly earn a spot behind new addition Justin Smoak. Another newcomer Avisail Garcia also could reemerge as a major contributor after battling injuries the past two seasons in Chicago and Tampa Bay.

NL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 31 – Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dodgers are certainly the favorites in the West but Arizona held its own in that series last season and went 39-32 after the All Star break in 2019 despite falling out of the playoff race with a mid-September slide. Madison Bumgarner is the high-profile addition to lead the staff but Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, and Luke Weaver give the Diamondbacks a solid rotation top-to-bottom. The schedule will also work out well for Arizona with 30 games ahead vs. the Rockies, Padres, and Giants, division foes that Arizona could have done much better against last season. Houston and Oakland will be difficult draws from the AL but that division crossover will also bring four games with Seattle and will mean much lesser travel than the team is accustomed to. Arizona has had three consecutive winning seasons, even in years dealing with a historically great Dodgers team and a more formidable Colorado team than is expected this season. The Rockies have a bit of rebound potential this season but the Giants aren’t as likely to hang around as long this season, while San Diego remains a team with many question marks. The Dodgers will also lean on three ultra-young starters behind Clayton Kershaw which could mean some inconsistency and more work for the bullpen.

AL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Boston Red Sox: The 2018 Red Sox were a historically great team with 108 wins and a World Series title. Last season Boston dropped to just 84 wins and the climb downward could continue in the abbreviated 2020 season. New York and Tampa Bay look like perhaps the top two AL contenders and those two teams will fill a third of Boston’s schedule, teams the Red Sox combined to go 12-26 against last season. Last season’s #5 starter for the Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez is now the staff ace by default while Nathan Eovaldi and Collin McHugh back from injuries and an aging Martin Perez off a season overachievement will need to fill out the rotation. Subtracting Mookie Betts isn’t going to spell improvement as the lineup is much less intimidating and will also draw 20 games against the pitching-rich NL East as well, with Boston only 10-10 in interleague play last season. Boston went 21-11 vs. the AL Central last season and had a winning record against four of five AL West teams and now has all of those opponents erased. 31½ sounds low for a popular Red Sox team accustomed to being in contention but winning 32 games means a 53.3% winning percentage for at team that won at a 51.9% clip last season. 

AL CENTRAL

BEST BET: UNDER 34 – Minnesota Twins: Given that the Twins will play the Royals and Tigers 20 times and capable but not overly formidable Cleveland and Chicago squads 20 times, many will call for a great season in Minnesota. The Twins were clear overachievers last season with 101 wins however in a historically great home run season. Minnesota got unexpected starting pitching last season and now is turning to three veterans that have battled injuries and inconsistency in recent years to replace much of that success. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi also are regression candidates at the top of the rotation and the short summer camp will likely mean more reliance on a bullpen that lacked quality depth last season. The NL Central draw is a tricky one with likely four quality teams in that group and the Twins were just 8-12 in interleague games last season. Minnesota still lost its season series with the Indians last year and was a fortunate team in one-run games with a 23-12 record. A huge 21-8 May buoyed the season with Minnesota a more average performer in the mid-summer months before another embarrassing playoff sweep. Josh Donaldson is a high profile addition but several returnees might struggle to match their 2019 pace.

AL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 28½ – Texas Rangers: The new ballpark will be an unknown factor but there remains a lot to like about the Texas lineup. Adding Corey Kluber gives the Rangers a potential ace to match with the quality results Lance Lynn and Mike Minor have provided while Kyle Gibson remains a pitcher with a tantalizing upside. The rotation is high on experience which could help to offset some of the uncertainty in the bullpen. The case for the Rangers also hinges on clear paths to decline from Houston and Oakland. The Astros will remain formidable but two expected starters in the rotation haven’t even reported yet and everyone will be looking to spoil Houston’s season. Oakland also has some regression potential after back-to-back 97-win seasons. The five projected starters for Oakland won a combined 30 games last season and while the bullpen can carry the team it may be a tougher path. Seattle looks like one of the worst teams in baseball this season as Texas could produce a much better record in that series this season. The NL West interleague draw also offers some matchup and travel benefits to the Rangers as this team that was 48-42 at the All Star break last season has the potential to be a sleeper in the AL playoff race. Texas should at least have a good shot for a .500 campaign following three straight losing seasons.

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2020 MLB Schedule is set!

The MLB season will finally be starting in a few weeks with an opening night doubleheader (Yankees/Nationals & Giants/Dodgers) on July 23 and a full slate July 24.

A 60-game schedule for every team featuring only division games and interleague crossover games with the corresponding division in the other league means a great change from the normal 162-game slate and it will be a wild two months to trim the league from 30 to 10 playoff teams.

There will be new challenges and roster management situations that franchises aren’t accustomed to and even the teams that have been at the bottom of the league in recent years should have some optimism needing only two strong months to be in the mix. For example on June 1 last season the Phillies and Rangers were both playoff teams while Colorado and San Diego had winning records. The eventual World Series champions were only 25-33, sitting just a few games above the Marlins in the NL East standings.

Check out a five-page MLB PREVIEW from Nelly’s that includes a look at the recently released updated 2020 schedule, along with the projected rotations and an over/under win total prediction for each division.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#924 Oakland Athletics (Fiers) -115 over New York Yankees (Happ) 9:07 PM CT

Mike Fiers is 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 19 starts since May 1 as he has been the most reliable starter for the Athletics. He had a tough outing last week vs. Houston, the first time in that span of starts in which he had allowed more than three runs. Fiers has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of the past 12 starts and he has terrific home splits in 84 innings at home with a 2.89 ERA. Adding J.A. Happ was a great benefit last season for the Yankees but this year the left-hander has struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Happ has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts and the results have been getting worse with a 6.85 ERA in his last nine starts. Oakland is currently the odd team out in the AL Playoff picture despite a 72-53 record but the Athletics are 21-10 vs. left-handed starters this season and 41-22 at the Coliseum. New York has great potential vs. right-handers but the power numbers are likely to slip in this spacious ballpark. New York’s offense has been held in check in the last week and this is a dangerous series ahead of a highly anticipated interleague series at Dodger Stadium this coming weekend. Oakland’s offense has cooled in the last month but this team is 14-6 in the past 20 games including a big series win over Houston and a 10-3 mark the past 13 home dates.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#954 Miami Marlins (Smith) + over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly) 6:10 PM CT

There is a lot to like about Caleb Smith’s season line for the Marlins as the former Yankees draft pick has a 3.30 ERA in 90 innings. His 11.0 K/9 would be one of the top marks in the NL if he qualified and having a winning record pitching for the NL’s worst team is no small feat. Take away a disastrous start to the season the Marlins have been fairly competitive however, going 30-32 since mid-May and they enter this series finale having won four of the past five games, beating Arizona both Friday and Sunday. A big part of the turnaround has been consistent starting pitching with longer outings boosting the bullpen as the offense remains limited. Arizona prefers to face left-handers but facing a lefty of Smith’s caliber isn’t a routine assignment. At exactly .500 the Diamondbacks will be worth monitoring as the trade deadline approaches as this team was a buyer last season before a September crash and again going all-in for a shot a wild card game in a crowded NL picture isn’t likely. Arizona is 15-19 since mid-June and the lineup has been ice cold hitting .209 the past five games with a .633 OPS. 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has provided average results this season and he has struggled on the road with a 4.68 ERA. Kelly has zero wins in his past seven starts and can be vulnerable to the home run. Arizona has a 5.19 ERA in the bullpen the past 10 games as well as the Diamondbacks look like a risky favorite on the road Monday night.

Nelly’s has a guaranteed NL side play tonight for just $15. Consider joining up for all of August baseball!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#929/930 ‘OVER 10’ New York Mets (Matz) at Minnesota Twins (Pineda) 7:10 PM CT

Michael Pineda has allowed just one run in four of his last five starts to best his season line that features a 4.56 ERA. His walk rate has been extremely low this season but he has been victim to 16 home runs in 17 starts. Pineda hasn’t shown a big preference for pitching at Target Field and right-handed hitters have pretty strong numbers against him. Steven Matz simply hasn’t developed into the quality starter the Mets thought they had when he broke into the league in 2015 and 2016. Matz is 12-24 the past three seasons with a 4.68 ERA and he was removed from the rotation in early July after a run of lousy outings, allowing 24 runs over his last five starts. He didn’t fare any better as a reliever allowing two runs in just over two innings and he now has to face a lineup with an .868 season OPS vs. left-handed pitchers while Matz owns a 7.07 road ERA on the season. Minnesota took two of three from Cleveland to start the second half in a huge series and while Minnesota hasn’t matched its amazing May pace in recent weeks the scoring remains strong, averaging 5.3 runs per game since June started and leading baseball in home runs. The ‘over’ is 28-17 in Mets road games and while Target Field has averaged only 9.1 runs per game, the summer weather is much more conducive to scoring after some cold weather games the first two months brought the average down. New York also owns a 5.55 bullpen ERA on the season. These teams split two games in April with a combined 37 runs despite better pitchers in both games on both sides. While the Mets have been a dysfunctional group that has slipped out of the NL wild card race, the offense has plenty of promise and has a steady .771 team OPS the past 20 games, hitting 31 home runs in that span. The Mets have scored at least three runs in 11 consecutive road games and Twins pitching has allowed four or more runs in 12 of the past 16 games. It is hot and humid in Minneapolis with the wind blowing a bit out to right and while at first glance a double-digit total at Target Field seems high, it can be justified with two shaky starters and struggling bullpens as well as home run power throughout both lineups.

Join Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton for MLB action through the end of July!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#953/954 ‘OVER 8’ Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has posted capable results for the Marlins with a 3.73 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP looks more realistic and Alcantara has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts for erratic results. He allowed 11 hits and six runs vs. the Phillies earlier this season and his 4.2 BB/9 with just a 6.4 K/9 isn’t often a formula for long term success. He also has dramatically worse numbers away from Miami and the Marlins own a 5.22 bullpen ERA on the season that climbs to 5.67 the past 10 games. The recent relief numbers are even worse for Philadelphia with an 8.33 bullpen ERA the last 10 games and several short starting efforts on the current 2-8 run for the team that has suddenly handed the Braves a big division lead. Aaron Nola has shown some signs of promise after a tough start to the season, unable to back up his brilliant 2018 campaign. Nola is 6-1 with a 10.0 K/9 but he has a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.89 ERA. His FIP isn’t a lot lower than that and he has allowed at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His home numbers are better than his road numbers but expecting Nola to put up zeroes is a reach as he hasn’t had a scoreless outing in any of his 15 starts despite barely averaging 5.1 innings per start. Philadelphia pitching has allowed nearly 6.0 runs per game in June for a 6-11 run for the Phillies but the offense should find better returns this weekend back at home following a run of facing several elite starters. Philadelphia has still scored four or more runs in nine of the past 14 games while averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season. The ‘over’ is 12-3 in Nola starts this season yet today’s number is equal to or lower than the total on each of his last five home starts. Wind in Philadelphia can be impactful but the higher afternoon wins are expected to calm by game time and it will remain warm through the early innings.

Bobby Dalton has a guaranteed 10* total for Friday night – $19.99 pay after you win with a bonus 5* included.

Nelly’s has offered a 2/3 offer in MLB just twice this season – going 6-0 on those picks. Get three picks tonight as we try to do it again 2/3 for Friday for just $25!

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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 9’ Cleveland Indians (Bieber) at Texas Rangers (Minor) 1:05 PM CT

After dazzling in several starts late last season Shane Bieber carried high expectations in 2019 and that weight has grown with the injuries in the rotation for the Indians. Bieber has a decent 3.92 ERA but with a 3.30 xFIP and an amazing 11.4 K/9 this is clearly one of the AL’s very best starting pitchers. Bieber has allowed five or more runs three times in his last seven starts but his home and road splits are similar and he has also had eight starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. Mike Minor has overachieved with a 2.63 ERA next to a 4.02 xFIP but the strikeout numbers are there and Minor continues to provide reliable outcomes for the surprising Rangers. In each of his last 10 starts he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed and he has allowed an average of barely over one home run per nine innings, no small feat in Arlington. Minor has thrived at home with a 2.18 ERA and he has equally impressive splits vs. right-handers and left-handers. Cleveland has put up big numbers the past two days in this series but they got 10 runs last night on only 12 hits, fortunate to earn seven two-out RBI. It will be warm in Arlington with conditions that can favor offense but these are two elite AL starters and on an early start getaway game the number could be kept in check.

Join Nelly’s for an AL side play Thursday night for $15 or play the rest of June for $99. We’ve struggled the first two months this season but with four straight profitable MLB seasons, odds are a big run is ahead this summer, don’t miss out!

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#904 Miami Marlins (Alcantara) +125 over St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) 6:10 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara has dropped his ERA down to 3.80 on the season and while his 5.14 xFIP is alarming as are his very low strikeout rate and high walk rates, he has been getting the job done of late. His ERA is just 3.19 over his last eight starts and he has allowed only five earned runs over his past 27 innings. St. Louis prefers to face right-handed pitching but over the past two weeks the Cardinals have the worst OPS in all of MLB. In the past seven games the Cardinals have scored a total of 12 runs and having to play Sunday night won’t be helpful for the morale or fatigue of the squad facing long travel to Miami to start this series Monday night. Michael Wacha is still just 27 but his numbers have been challenging this season with a 6.30 ERA this season. With a 5.06 xFIP Wacha should have better numbers but a 5.8 BB/9 isn’t a path to success. Wacha hasn’t had a quality start since April 17 and his ERA is 7.99 since May started spanning four starts and his last two relief outings. The Marlins are 13-9 the past 22 games even with a current four-game slide and with a .756 team OPS the past two weeks the Marlins have been far more productive than the Cardinals who have posted a .641 team OPS in that span. Both bullpens have struggled of late but the Marlins have shown a slight improvement in the relief numbers in recent weeks and have received at least five innings from its starter in nine of the past 10 games to manage the workload while the Cardinals have had a starter clear five innings once in the past five games. St. Louis is just 11-19 on the road this season as this type of favoritism is hard to justify with Wacha’s struggles and with the Cardinals ice cold at the plate of late.

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Nelly’s Baseball has turned in four consecutive profitable seasons – we’ve got work to do this summer with a slow start but June was one of our best months last season and we have been profitable over the past four weeks after a tough start to the season. Now is a great time to get on board to maximize your potential profits with a proven winner on the diamond and with a service that is plus nearly 100* the past two calendar years overall. Join Nelly’s for the rest of June Baseball for just $99!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

Don’t miss a huge 15* Best Bet Game of the Month Total from Bobby Dalton for Friday Night Baseball. Dalton won his April 15* and he guarantees to win tonight with a 15* for $29.99. Get three additional picks from Bobby Dalton tonight in a Trips-2-Win offer as well!