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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#923 Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) +110 over Baltimore Orioles (Cobb) 5:35 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Rays out-hit the Orioles 15-10 last night but wound up losing by five runs in a game where they had three times as many at-bats as Baltimore with runners in scoring position. The Rays left five times as many runners on base and the Orioles turned two huge rally-killing double plays in the game with a two out grand slam from Manny Machado the key play in the result for the Orioles.

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The Rays are still 5.5 games and a 57 runs superior to the Orioles in the standings and Baltimore is just 8-11 at Camden Yards. Somehow winning three games in a row leaves the Orioles as the favorite tonight in Game 2 of today’s double-header. While there is some risk getting involved before knowing the Game 1 outcome, the Rays have Chris Archer on the mound in the afternoon game and while he has had mixed results he should be counted on for a sustained start. The Orioles are countering with the MLB debut of David Hess with far more potential variance in his outcome and the toll on the Baltimore bullpen.

Alex Cobb was picked up by a panicked Orioles team late in spring training and the move has not paid off with a 7.61 ERA and no wins in five starts for Cobb. Facing his former team could be a challenge as the Rays scored five runs and had 10 hits against him at Oriole Park in late April and Cobb has just a 4.2 K/9 this season despite being the favorite in this matchup. Matt Andriese has been a steady fill-in starter for the Rays in recent years and his numbers this season are excellent with a 10.5 K/9 while allowing just three walks in more than 20 innings of work. His FIP is only 2.04 and while he isn’t likely to go deep in this game he has had a few longer relief outings and his starting experience could push him to a longer start tonight. The winning streak for the Orioles isn’t likely a great sign of things to come especially with a very fortunate result last night and the underdog Rays are worth a shot in Game 2.

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Nelly’s has won in three of four MLB weeks this season – get tonight’s TOTAL for $15! Bobby Dalton is on a 51-35 Trips-2-Win MLB run – win 2/3 tonight with the Big Dog!

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#925 Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) +140 over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 9:05 PM CT

The Orioles have been a disaster this season at 8-21 but the offense has posted four or more runs in five of the past six games and the lineup has hit about 20 points higher vs. left-handed pitching this season. After a hot start the Angeles have cooled off losing four of the past five and the offense has failed to top three runs in seven of the last eight games as this looks like an overvalued team.

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Dylan Bundy may be 1-3 but the other numbers make it clear he is one of the AL’s top pitchers. His ERA of 2.97 coincides with an even low 2.81 FIP and his K/9 of 10.9 is an elite figure. Bundy allowed seven earned runs in his last start after allowing a total of just five earned runs in his first five starts and a bounce-back outing should be in store in Anaheim with Bundy featuring a 1.54 ERA on the road this season.

Andrew Heaney has struggled in three starts for the Angels despite facing the struggling offenses of the Royals and Giants in two of his outings. His ERA is 6.91 and while his .429 BABIP is sure to go down he has received few groundballs and isn’t likely to keep up his current strikeout pace. Heaney hasn’t had sustained MLB success since a brief window in the 2015 season and he looks like a high risk favorite at this price with a lineup batting just .193 in the past 10 games behind him.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

Most didn’t expect Mike Clevinger to last in the rotation all season long nor be a candidate for the postseason rotation but it is hard to argue with the results by the unconventional 26-year-old right-hander. Since mid-June his ERA is 3.21 with a 6-2 record and a 10.2 K/9. His walk rate has also climbed downward substantially in the last month and he has turned in back-to-back scoreless performances on the current 15-game winning streak for the Indians.

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Despite that dominance the Indians are only a modest favorite tonight hosting Baltimore. Since the All Star break Cleveland is 21 games above .500 while outscoring foes by 125 runs. They have outscored Baltimore 28-10 in four games this season and Cleveland is crushing left-handed pitching with a .796 team OPS on the season with the Indians overall posting a .983 OPS the past 13 games.

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Baltimore has been a lousy road team this season and while 3-4 the past seven games all three wins came in walk-off fashion. Baltimore is a worse hitting team vs. right-handed pitching and Clevinger pitched well in a win at Baltimore in June. Wade Miley owns a 4.91 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 5.19.

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Right-handed batters are hitting .290 vs. Miley on the season. It appears Miley is pitching well of late but he has failed top five innings in four of his last seven starts with the coaching staff often unwilling to leave him in a third time through the lineup. Cleveland is clearly one of baseball’s very best teams, a squad dominating on a long winning streak while posted as just a modest favorite tonight at home.

Nelly’s is on a 16-8 MLB run while Bobby Dalton is on a 12-5 MLB run for great late season results. Don’t miss Friday night guarantees on the diamond.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#970 Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) -115 over New York Yankees (Gray) 6:05 PM CT

Kevin Gausman had some troubles early in the season but he has been on a roll as the Orioles have climbed back into the AL playoff race. In his last nine starts he has five wins with a 2.03 ERA. His strikeout rate remains strong at 9.4 K/9 and in six of his last nine starts he has gone at least six innings without allowing more than a single run.

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The Yankees dominated right-handed pitching in the first two months of the season but New York is a .500 team since June started and the offensive numbers continue to fall including posting just a .726 team OPS over the past 13 games. New York is a below .500 road team while Baltimore has one baseball’s best home field edges with a 44-29 Camden Yards record. With a great bullpen and late inning heroics Baltimore is 20-15 in one-run games and 12-2 in extra-inning games as well, getting walk-off wins in three of the past five days to start September.

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Few teams have been as productive recently with an .866 team OPS in the past 25 games with nearly six runs per game scored. Sonny Gray was a nice acquisition for the Yankees but his numbers are just slightly above average for the season. Since joining the team he is 2-4 with a 4.29 FIP and his road numbers are not nearly as strong this season.

The host has won five of the last six games in this series and Baltimore has the clear recent bullpen edge with a 2.37 ERA the last 10 games. Gary Sanchez has been suspended to take the best hitter out of New York’s lineup while Aaron Hicks also just hit the DL again this week as New York’s lineup won’t be complete tonight in a big opportunity for the Orioles.

Bobby Dalton has a 5* in MLB action tonight riding a 10-4 run – get the pick for only $12. Nelly’s is on a 16-7 MLB run – get our Late Night play for only $15 Wednesday!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#968 Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) -130 over Seattle Mariners (Ramirez) 6:05 PM CT

The Orioles are starting to look very much alive in the AL Wild Card picture and a turnaround for the pitching staff has been the primary reason. Wade Miley, Kevin Gausman, and Dylan Bundy have all bounced back from mid-season struggles and Bundy gives Baltimore a great chance to win tonight. In August Bundy is 3-0 with an 11.0 K/9 and a 2.67 ERA and he has been a solid pitcher at home all season long.

Bundy is very tough on right-handed batters and he should get great support with Baltimore 15-11 this month behind nearly 6.0 runs scored per game. Baltimore has won five straight games getting a narrow win last night to start this series and the formidable offense owns an .893 team OPS in that five-game run. Baltimore has hit 47 home runs in the past 25 games and the Orioles are 39-26 at home on the season.

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Seattle was aggressive in making some roster moves to stay in the wild card hunt despite being buried in the AL West race but injuries to the pitching staff have made it hard for the Mariners to keep up. Seattle is 23-19 since the All Star break but they have been outscored by 20 runs in that span and fatigue has shown up now in the fourth city on a long east coast road trip with the Mariners losing the past three games. The team has just a .736 team OPS the past 24 games with only 4.1 runs scored game.

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Erasmo Ramirez rejoined the Mariners in late July, starting the season with the Rays but he has had mediocre results all season with a 4.52 ERA and a 6.9 K/9. With Seattle his ERA is 3.76 but with a 4.91 FIP and just a 6.1 K/9. As usual the Orioles still have an elite bullpen including a 1.70 relief ERA the past 10 games and Bundy clearly has a higher ceiling on the mound tonight.

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Nelly’s Baseball is rocking three straight winning weeks with a 12-5, +7.35* run since August 11 – join us for our next guaranteed pick on the diamond for Tuesday night. Bobby Dalton is also having success with his August baseball picks going 8-3 his last 11 including a 6-1 run in 10* Best Bets. Join him for an interleague Best Bet Tuesday!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#923 Washington Nationals (Lopez) +145 over Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) 6:05 PM CT

Reynaldo Lopez might be a wild card for the Nationals down the stretch as the 22-year old has impressed through four starts with a 10.3 K/9 rate and a 3.32 FIP. He has benefitted from facing Atlanta twice but he is facing an Orioles team that has been erratic offensively of late and the once owners of the best home record in baseball are just 2-5 on the current home stand even after last night’s 4-3 win. Kevin Gausman couldn’t buy a win early in the season despite very effective numbers but he has been less effective down the stretch. Since mid-June his ERA is 4.70 with a corresponding 4.42 FIP and while he is generating strikeouts he has allowed 74 hits in 67 innings in that span including 13 home runs allowed. Gausman has far better numbers at home where the Orioles are 6-3 in his starts but a Washington lineup coming off back-to-back one-run losses will be ready for this matchup. The Nationals have an eight-game lead in the NL East as there is not great urgency but on the season Washington is 125 runs superior to Baltimore in run differential even with the Orioles staying in the playoff chase. Washington is 26-13 this season in the second game of a series and over the last 10 games the Nationals are batting .281 with 7.5 runs per game vs. right-handed pitching. Washington is 5-4 in the last nine games as an underdog and this is a favorable price on a talented young pitcher that should be well supported.

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