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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#467 New Orleans Saints +2 over Atlanta Falcons 12:00 PM CT

Atlanta lost a defensive battle in Week 1 but won a shootout last week. The later is expected this week though these teams split lower scoring games last December. The Saints narrowly avoided a 0-2 start to the season and look like a risky performer in the season’s first road game given a poor September track record in the Sean Payton era. Drew Brees is still posting tremendous numbers however and while the Saints are vulnerable against the pass the run defense has been capable.

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New Orleans was a greatly improved defensive team last season and could see the numbers improve in the coming weeks skewed upward after the big numbers from Tampa Bay in Week 1. In contrast the Falcons have allowed 5.2 yards per carry on the ground as Brees and the Saints may be able to provide a more balanced attack this week in what could be a big day for Alvin Kamara who has been held to just 75 rushing yards so far this season.

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The Falcons have been beset by defensive injuries while Devonta Freeman also remains out of action. Cam Newton threw for 335 yards with a 105.3 QB Rating against the Falcons last week in Atlanta and the Saints have won in five of the last nine trips to Atlanta with all but one loss a single-score game. Atlanta was fortunate with three fumbles last week that were all recovered and the ground game could favor New Orleans despite high profile passers and a high total on this key NFC South battle.

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#508 Atlanta Hawks +8.5 over Miami Heat 6:35 PM CT

The Heat lead a three-way tie for the final three spots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, coming off narrowly defeating the Hawks last night. In a true home-and-home the Heat are in Atlanta tonight and this is a Miami team with one S/U win in the past 12 road games going back to late January. Miami has a great ATS road record for the season but those wins have come almost exclusively as an underdog, going 4-5 ATS on the season as a road favorite with this line set to be the biggest road favorite price of the season for the Heat.

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Atlanta has one of the NBA’s worst records but 16 of the team’s 22 wins have come at home. The host is 3-0 in this series this season and the Hawks were -1.5 when they won by six hosting the Heat earlier this season for a dramatic line swing. Atlanta has a limited roster right now with the loss of a few key players but it is a hungry group ready for the opportunity and playing hard for four quarters.

Miami is 6-14-1 ATS on the season when laying 5 or more points this season and the Hawks won the rebounding battle last night while keeping the turnover count close. Miami shot just 42 percent and only had 11 points at the line but they lost by just three points. The Heat is only playing nine right now as playing on back-to-back nights could be a challenge. Atlanta is 8-5-1 ATS this season playing on back-to-back nights and Miami has far more prominent games remaining in the season’s final three games after this contest.

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#508 Minnesota Timberwolves -12 over Atlanta Hawks 7:05 PM CT

After being embarrassed at home against Memphis on Monday the Wolves should be sharp on Wednesday night. Losing as a 13-point favorite Minnesota is now clinging to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference as a team that once looked like a serious Finals contender now is just 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers for the final spot. Minnesota is 27-10 S/U at home and Minnesota has lost three consecutive games just once all season.

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On Monday Minnesota scored 11 points in the fourth quarter and were outshot by six percent overall including by 15 percent from 3-point line as Wayne Selden had a career game with 23 points for the Grizzlies. The Wolves don’t have much depth and they were playing a third game in four days after a pair of prominent east coast games followed up a big home win over the Clippers last Tuesday.

Atlanta has lost nine of the last 10 games and six of those losses came by 12 or more points. The Hawks have the third worst record in the NBA in a race to the bottom and Atlanta has no margin for error with five teams within three games ‘ahead’ of them in the standings. Atlanta is 6-31 S/U on the road this season for the league’s worst road record and a dysfunctional Minnesota group knows it cannot afford to let this game get away.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#260 Atlanta Falcons -10 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12:00 PM CT

Atlanta still looks like a serious NFC threat despite the marginal record as one of the top statistical teams in the NFL and delivering Monday night for a narrow win in Seattle that could wind up as a critical tiebreaker.

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Tampa Bay has been fortunate to win the past two weeks with limited production behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. The two quality teams Tampa Bay has faced on the road beat them by 17 and 20 respectively and backing one of the league’s worst rushing teams on the road is tough even if Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay won in Atlanta last season to add to the importance of this game for the Falcons and Tampa Bay has been out-gained by 339 yards in the last three games despite somehow winning two of those games vs. marginal AFC East teams.

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Atlanta is 1.4 yards superior in net yards per play in this matchup and the favorite has covered nine of the last 14 meetings between these division rivals. Given that the NFC South looks likely to down to the wire division wins will be critical and Atlanta is yet to pick up a NFC South win this season as they will not overlook the Buccaneers.