Description
daily text here
Hello everyone and WELCOME to the 2024 College Hoops season!! This year marks my 21st season of handicapping College Hoops on Nelly’s Sportsline and I’m so grateful and blessed to be able to be here for another year. 2022 was my best season ever and I followed it up with another winning year in 2023! In fact, I haven’t had a losing season since 2017! My run in CBB is now up to 505-452/+94 since 2/28/19, which includes successfully navigating shortened seasons and odd schedules during the pandemic AND the ever-shifting roster landscape that NIL has brought to the table! I can’t wait to tip off another big season…..let’s get after it and have more fun again this year!
This year’s season tips on Monday, November 4th and we will not look back! From that day until Championship Monday in April, the Big E will have at least one 10* play for college hoops EVERY DAY a game is played! Every single day, the B.E.S.T. will release a 10* Biggie play on the hottest play of the day, and, like my football packages, every month I’ll have a 15* Game of the Month! I will also have 20* Conference Games of the Year scattered throughout the season along with my 25* Games of the Year designated for my very BEST regular season and Tournament plays of the season!
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve moved to a more industry standard +/- EV unit-based scoring system as opposed to defaulting to a -110 juice for every play. The reality of the sports wagering world today is both lines and juice vary from state to state and book to book, so using a flat 10% is more inaccurate than not estimating juice at all. All of that said, rest assured, my “star method” won’t change. I’ll still (always) have my traditional 10, 15, 20, and 25* Biggies. The change will be adding a real layer of value in association. For example, a 10* play is a 1-unit bet for a player, a 15* play is a 2-unit bet, a 20* is a 3-unit bet, and a 25* GOY is a 5-unit play. This allows players to define their own units….it could be $10, $100, or $1,000, depending on their bankroll, with the juice implied. A win on a 10* play is +1, a loss would be -1, etc. This allows us all to speak a common language with a common measurement of success. As always, questions and feedback always welcome!
Highlights from the last few years include:
• 25* plays are on a 4-0 run the last 2 years
• 20* Conf GOYs are 98-80 the last 7 years
• 20* AAC GOYs are on a 7-3 run
• 20* A10 GOYs are on a 4-2 run
• 20* Big Sky GOYs are on a 4-0 run and 10-5 ALL TIME
• 20* CUSA GOYs are on a 5-1 run
• 20* Horizon GOYs are on a 5-1 run and are 13-4 ALL TIME
• 20* Ivy GOYs are on a 10-4 run
• 20* MAAC GOYs are on a 8-0 run and are 12-5 ALL TIME
• 20* MVC GOYs are on a 6-1 run
• 20* SEC GOYs are on a 6-2 run and are 11-5 ALL TIME
• 20* Summit GOYs are 8-4 ALL TIME
• 20* Sun Belt GOYs are on a 5-2 run and are 10-5 ALL TIME
• 15* GOMs are 11-4 the last 3 years
Let’s take you through a typical week with the Big E. In the TV-dominated world of “all sports, all the time”, 10* Biggies can and will happen any day! Every week, the Big E will have 10* Biggie plays every day there’s a game! These plays are available individually for $9.94 and again, these are GUARANTEED plays, so you only pay if I give you a winner. Clients should ALWAYS be on the lookout for Big E’s promotional Biggies….every month, there is a 15* Game of the Month for $15.94. Games that really stand out can bring a 20* Conference GOY for $20.94. Finally, the top Regular Season and the top NCAA Tourney games of the year will spawn 25* GOY PLAYS for $49.94!
Did someone say packages? The Big E’s got ’em….big ones, too! Catering to the weekly or situational player, the B.E.S.T. will have weekly, monthly, and various promotional packages throughout the year! Just check out www.nellysports.com regularly to see what the Big E is cooking up at any given time. And, if you are someone like me who shops at CostCo and buys things in bulk for cheap, you are amongst friends! Please direct your attention to the Big E’s seasonal packages below and get ALL your picks early for ONE low price!!
FULL COURT FULL SEASON PACKAGE: $549.94
Starts with a 10* Biggie on November 4th and charges ahead, giving you access to EVERY college hoops selection through Championship Monday in April! This package includes:
• EVERY Regular and Post Season 10* Biggie play
• EVERY 15* GOM
• EVERY 20* Conference GOY
• 25* Regular Season GOY
• 25* Post Season GOY
You’ve seen the results above….add them all together and this package is a MUST HAVE!!! In a typical year, this package includes ~200 plays. That means the plays in this package comes out to an unbelievable $2.75/play for wall-to-wall college hoops plays throughout the entire season!
BOWLS & B-BALL PACKAGE: $299.94
Back by popular demand! I’ll be releasing my Big E Bowls & B-ball Package TWO WEEKS EARLY (November 11th) to ensure the inclusion of my 25* NFL AND CFB GOYs! For $299.94, you get EVERY Football and EVERY College Hoops play through the College Football Championship Game (Jan. 20th) in one convenient package! This package includes:
• EVERY NCAA Basketball 10* Biggie play
• 15* NCAA Basketball GOM for December
• EVERY NFL 10* Biggie play
• EVERY 10* Bowl Biggie play
• EVERY late December and January edition of the Top 5 Ticket
• 25* NFL GOY
• 25* NCAA Bowl GOY
I’ve absolutely ROCKED the Bowl Season over the years with 25* Bowl GOY WINNERS in ’07, ’08, ’10, ’13, ’14, ’15, ’16, ’17, ’18, ’20, AND ‘22! Hoops plays during the Bowls & B-ball period have been consistently good over the long term, going 325-298 since 2008! This package includes over 100 combined plays, which comes out to an unbelievable $2.99/play for one of the best crossover packages in the biz!
COMPLETE MARCH MADNESS PACKAGE: $199.94
I think Championship Week is my favorite week of the season…..for me, it trumps even the first week of the Tourney, so I have to include it in any Post Season Package! In fact, March is just so mad, I include the ENTIRE month in this package! In 2019, I went 10-6 from March 1 through Championship Week and 23-16 in tournament action for an overall 33-22 record within this package! At just $199.94, that’s just $3.64/play to get ALL the Madness!
Good luck to all and enjoy the season…..may we all be dancing in March!!
Big E.
