Hello everyone and welcome to Week 3 of the NFL and Week 4 in CFB! Last week, Syracuse came through as my 20* ACC GOY, adding to our 7-3/+5 UNIT start in CFB! Today, I am releasing all of this weekend’s games, including my 15* NFL GOM for September!
Our solid overall start the year has extended our incredible 6 YEAR RUN to 622-580, good for +98.55 UNITS during that stretch! Next week, I will be releasing my 20* Big 12 GOY along with 10* CFB and NFL Biggie plays AND the latest edition of the Top 5 Ticket, all in a package for $59.94. I also have a monthly package to take you through October for $149.94. Or, for the best overall value, my Full Pads Full Season Package gives you EVERY Biggie play PLUS every edition of the Top 5 Ticket through Super Bowl Sunday in February for just $499.94!
You can call the office to get information and pricing details for any of my packages at 1-800-336-3559 or go online to www.nellysports.com.
Look for the next update here by 3pm Monday when I’ll have a potential 10* Biggie play for MNF!
Thanks, and good luck!
Welcome to The Big E’s 18th YEAR as a featured handicapper here at Nelly Sports! Sooo….what’s new? Not much, right? Pretty much business as usual? Yeah, jokes aside, there are a lot of things going on in the world that are unfortunate and stressful. My goal for this year is to give you an (profitable) outlet for positive entertainment during these strange and tying times. Obviously, things will look different in football this year and I’ll do my best to adjust my packages and pricing accordingly. I ask you all for your patience as we navigate through this together and I certainly welcome your feedback on how I can make the service better! Let’s get into it!
As I mentioned last year, I’m moving to a more industry standard +/- EV unit-based scoring system as opposed to defaulting to a -110 juice for every play. The reality of the sports wagering world today is both lines and juice vary from state to state and book to book, so using a flat 10% is more inaccurate than not estimating juice at all. All of that said, rest assured, my “star method” won’t change. I’ll still (always) have my traditional 10, 15, 20, and 25* Biggies and lower Top 5 Ticket values. The change will be adding a real layer of value in association. The following is how I advise each play be wagered moving forward:
- 10* Biggie = 1 UNIT
- 15* GOM = 2 UNITS
- 20* Conf GOY = 3 UNITS
- 25* GOY = 5 UNITS
- All Top 5 Ticket plays = .5 UNIT
This allows players to define their own units. A unit could be $10, $100, $1,000, or ANY amount a player feels comfortable, depending on their bankroll, with the juice implied. A win on a 10* play is +1, a loss would be -1, etc. This allows us all to speak a common language with a common measurement of success. As always, questions and feedback always welcome!
No matter how you measure them, the last six years have been a tremendous run of long-term success! Since September 17, 2014, ALL football selections from the B.E.S.T. have gone 610-571, which has resulted in +63.55 units in that span! Highlights from the last few years include:
- All Biggies are 185-164/+51 UNITS the last 3 years
- 25* plays have gone 13-5 L4Y and 23-10 L7Y including a 6-1 run in 25* Bowl GOYs
- 20* Conference GOYs have had winning seasons in SEVEN OF EIGHT seasons and are 57-40 since 2011
- 20* Conference GOYs are now 84-64 ALL TIME
- 15* NFL Games of the Month have gone 15-7 over the L6Y
- Incredible 17-3 in Bowl selections in 2018, 77-50 L6Y
- NFL Playoff games have stayed hot, driving my ALL-TIME record to an incredible 65-44
- Five straight winning Top 5 Tickets to close 2018, going 18-5-2