Nelly’s | MLB | Free Pick | Sep. 11

#965 Boston Red Sox (Hill) +115 over Baltimore Orioles (Bradish) 12:05 PM CT

It is going to wind a up a forgettable season for the Red Sox but 42-year-old Rich Hill has been an effective starter. His 4.79 ERA doesn’t tell the story as he has a 29.3 percent CSW% and he has been much more effective on the road with a 3.99 ERA. He made a good start in Baltimore earlier this season. While he has been often a four-inning starter, the Boston offense has been doing enough to make up for a suspect Red Sox bullpen in many games. Boston put up 17 runs last night and the Red Sox are 6-4 in the past 10 games while batting .313 vs. right-handed pitching. Baltimore owns a good record vs. left-handed starters but the Orioles have just a .688 season OPS vs. left-handers. Baltimore’s chances to make a wild card run are fading, now five games out of the final spot and the lineup has topped four runs just once in the past seven games. Kyle Bradish has a 5.30 ERA in 18 starts and his CSW% is just 26.4 percent, three points below Hill’s. He has a 6.46 ERA in Baltimore and while his second half numbers are improved, he has not pitched well vs. Boston with a 7.43 ERA in three starts. Baltimore had a 4.72 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games compared to a solid 3.68 mark for the Red Sox who have received at least five innings for their starter in the past three games, something the Orioles have not had in any of the past five games.

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Green Sheet Issue #11 will be out later this week.