Free Pick | Wednesday | MLB | July 5

#903 Cincinnati Reds (Ashcraft) -120 over Washington Nationals (Gray) 6:05 PM CT

Josiah Gray will be a first-time All-Star for Washington, but his season line has featured some good fortune. His 3.30 ERA impresses but his FIP is 4.57 while he has a 4.1 BB/9. An 84 percent strand rate has saved Gray but that won’t be a sustainable pace for the season. Gray allows a lot of flyballs without being an elite strikeout producer and the Reds have a powerful lineup. Cincinnati is 21-10 since the start of June with an average of nearly 5.6 runs per game while in 16 straight games Cincinnati has scored at least three runs. The Reds will look to win a third straight game vs. Washington Wednesday night with Graham Ashcraft on the mound. A 6.66 ERA stands out, but Ashcraft has a FIP that is more than a run lower than that. He has had some bad luck with an elevated BABIP and just a 64 percent strand rate but has still delivered several strong outings including a great start vs. the Padres in his last outing. He has dramatically stronger numbers in his road starts and the Nationals have been a marginal offensive team in recent weeks. Ashcraft made a great start to beat Washington last June and the bullpen edge is firmly with Cincinnati as Washington has a 5.00 bullpen ERA for the season. Washington is 11-22 in the past 33 games and Gray hasn’t really pitched like an All-Star, he is just a passable option on a bad team.