Free Pick | Thursday | NCAA | March 20

Nelly’s is 14-2 the past three NCAA Tournaments in the Round of 64 – we have three picks for Thursday – early, afternoon, and prime time – just $20 each or join for our weekly package for $99 or the entire March Madness package for $199!

#765 Drake +6.5 over Missouri 6:35 PM CT

Drake offers great appeal as an underdog as the Bulldogs play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Drake has wins over ACC, SEC, and Big XII teams in non-conference play this season including an 11-point win over Vanderbilt, who just beat Missouri in early March. Drake did have some good close-game fortune to reach 30 wins with several overtime victories but the three losses for Drake this season have come by a combined 12 points. While this is Ben McCollum’s first season leading Drake and many expect he may get a call from Iowa, he has carried on the success that Darian DeVries had at Drake. The program has been a regular in the NCAA Tournament and hasn’t looked out of place losing by five points as a #10 seed last season and by seven points as a #12 seed two years ago. Drake won a game as an #11 seed in 2021 and will be a threat to do the same this season. Missouri was just an eight-win team last season, but it has been a great turnaround for the Tigers. The late season results didn’t offer great promise, however, losing five of the final seven games. Missouri’s resume includes wins over Kansas, Florida, and Alabama, but Missouri has only four wins away from home all season. This is a favorable location for both teams in Wichita and it has been a long layoff for Drake, winning the MVC title back on March 9. Missouri is 0-3 S/U this season when held below 75 points which is a figure that Drake allowed only once this season and that was an overtime game with only 72 points allowed in regulation. Mark Mitchell is expected to return for the Tigers to give Missouri a size edge, but the Tigers were near the bottom of the SEC in most defensive categories as Drake should have the ability to trade scores with the Tigers while disrupting Missouri’s typical up-tempo rhythm. Dennis Gates has gone 1-2 S/U in his career in NCAA Tournament games and his most recent loss came against Princeton who successfully stalled the pace of play in the same way Drake will strive to.