Free Pick | Thursday | NCAA | Feb. 1

Nelly’s is 5-1 the past three days in basketball picks to close out a solid winning month of January. We take a 4-1 NBA run and a 4-0 college run into February while also 2-0 in our last two 7* top plays. Nelly’s has won in February in 16 of the past 20 basketball seasons!

#821 UC Davis +4 over UC Santa Barbara 9:00 PM CT

UC Santa Barbara went 15-5 in Big West play last season but this year’s team hasn’t matched that pace, going 5-4 so far in conference play and now at home after a long trip to Hawaii. The Gauchos have won five of the past six games but none of those wins were against the top three teams in the conference standings. UC Davis won 76-62 hosting UC Santa Barbara in December, forcing 16 turnovers for the Gauchos. In Big West play UC Santa Barbara has the worst turnover rate in the conference on both sides of the ball. UC Santa Barbara is an excellent 3-point shooting team, but they were held to just 25 percent in the first meeting with UC Davis, and the Aggies are the #1 3-point defense in the Big West this season. UC Davis had its four-game winning streak snapped in ugly fashion Saturday with a lopsided home loss to UC San Diego but the Aggies are 7-2 in conference play with two road wins and the Big West path has been difficult, already facing UC Irvine twice, splitting with a home and an overtime road loss vs. the current Big West leader. The December win in this series for UC Davis was the team’s first in this series since February 2020 but most recent meetings have been tight games including two overtime results. UC Santa Barbara has three S/U home losses already this season and is just 1-3 ATS at home in Big West play and 2-5 ATS as a favorite in Big West play as the Gauchos still look overpriced based on last season’s success despite a clear decline in performance this season.