Free Pick | Sunday | NFL | Dec. 15

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#462 Tennessee Titans +5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CT

A huge late game break for the Bengals on special teams allowed Cincinnati to snap a three game slide with a Monday night win in Dallas. This will be a second straight road game on a short week for a tricky turnaround, but it is a favorable matchup given the contrasting offensive numbers for these teams. The Titans have been successful defensively at home but are only 1-5 S/U in home games with an 0-5-1 ATS record and five of six games playing ‘under’ as the Titans have not topped 20 points in Nashville and the market is accounting for that as Tennessee is a healthy underdog Sunday. Tennessee has been favored in four of six home games this season however and the only underdog games were games in which they allowed 24 and 23 points in competitive losses. The last home underdog situation was +6 against Minnesota, with Tennessee having better statistics in that loss. The Vikings are an 11-win team, the Bengals are a 5-win team and will command a similar price despite being one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. Cincinnati has scored at least 21 points in five of six road games this season and is 6-1 ATS on the road despite being a disappointing 5-8 S/U team with only a sliver of remaining hope in the AFC wild card race. The Titans held Joe Burrow to only 165 yards and a 14.2 QBR last season in a convincing win and the Tennessee defense still has the potential to carry the team and this price is out of sync with the recent valuations for both teams.