Free Pick | Saturday | NCAA | Feb. 11

Nelly’s went 2-0 last night – check out an early top play Saturday (4-2) run or join us for a later 2/3 offer (70% L3 Saturdays in CBB).

Free Pick Saturday: #728 Portland +11.5 over Saint Mary’s 5:00 PM CT

Saint Mary’s delivered a huge overtime win hosting Gonzaga last weekend but then got caught at Loyola Marymount on Thursday for the team’s first WCC loss. There is a lot to like about this group, but this is now a second straight road game off back-to-back overtime games and the Gaels will face a motivated Portland squad Saturday evening. Portland beat Villanova in November and lost narrowly to Michigan State and North Carolina in early season action as this is team with more potential than the 13-14 record suggests. Portland is 5-7 in a deep WCC but has only two home losses. The first meeting with Saint Mary’s in Moraga went poorly in early January with the Gaels nearly doubling up the Pilots 85-43. Portland made just one 3-point shot in the entire game for a 5 percent performance beyond the arc while the team’s best player Moses Wood did not suit up. Portland is 0-3 without Wood and has a winning WCC record with him. He put up 26 in Thursday’s home win and he is one of three Portland starters shooting 39 percent or better beyond the arc. This is a veteran Pilots team with good size and depth and while Saint Mary’s is clearly a stronger defensive team, Portland won’t be greatly vulnerable to having turnover issues and can limit the outside shooting for the Gaels. The excellent rebounding numbers for Saint Mary’s are inflated thanks to the ultra-slow pace and low possession counts of all Randy Bennett teams and the Gaels have some red flags for being well suited to covering big favorite spreads. Saint Mary’s is a marginal interior scoring team and can often settle for lower percentage 3-point shots while this is only a 69 percent free throw shooting team. A few blowout wins skew the scoring numbers but half of the wins for the Gaels in WCC play have come by single-digit margins including each of the past three wins. Portland has battled through one of the toughest WCC schedules so far and has competed well when at full-strength and should be a threat to hang around with a big home underdog price in the marquee revenge spot. Saint Mary’s has only four road wins all season and is a losing ATS team on the road and the Gaels may be getting too much market respect coming off a loss and given the lopsided result in the first meeting.

Dalton has 3 out of 5 for Saturday’s schedule with picks in the ACC, SEC, & Big 12! Two 7stars included!

Big E went 2-0 yesterday and has his next 20* in the Pac-12 tonight! Incredible 17-4-2 run in his last 23 picks!