Free Pick | Saturday | NCAA | Dec. 17

#654 Saint Joseph’s +13 over Villanova 3:00 PM CT

Saint Joseph’s won only 11 games last season and improvement isn’t assured for Billy Lange’s team with a 4-5 start to the season. In the Big 5 pairings Saint Joseph’s did win at Penn in late November and competed well at Temple. The marginal overall profile is hurt by a lopsided loss to Houston to start the season, but the Hawks are coming off a win over Saint Peter’s last weekend and have had ample time to prepare for this great opportunity. Saint Joseph’s lost badly to Villanova last season, but this may be the weakest Wildcats team in some time with the transition to Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats are only 5-5 and owns losses to Temple and Portland, teams outside the nation’s top 100. Villanova only has one top 100 win and while the Wildcats won by 21 against Boston College in their last game last weekend, that type of margin has not been the norm as the previous high for the season was just 13 points, even in some favorable early season draws. Villanova has good offensive numbers but plays at a painfully slow pace to make the Wildcats at risk as a heavy favorite. This is also likely to be the worst Villanova defense in a very long time, so far greatly struggling in many areas including rebounding and 3-point defense. The Big East schedule opens in a few days as this is likely to be a much bigger game for the underdog.

Nelly’s has a 7* for late night college basketball action as we look to add to a fantastic start to the season!