Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Dec. 31

#126 Seattle Seahawks -2.5 FIRST HALF over Pittsburgh Steelers 3:05 PM CT

Seattle has snuck out season-saving three-point wins the past two weeks to sit at 8-7. Pressure is on to win out in the still tight NFC wild card race with the head-to-head games in the NFC South and NFC North this week ensuring that the race will remain close. Seattle is also 0-2 against the Rams who are also 8-7 and will hold a potentially critical tiebreaker.  Seattle has faced a grueling second half schedule to fall from 5-2 to 8-7 facing the 49ers twice, Baltimore, Dallas, and Philadelphia all in the past eight games. Pittsburgh is playing for its postseason life as well, but the Steelers have not topped 16 points in any of its past three road games and statistically rate as one of the worst teams in the NFL, despite sitting above .500 with several narrow wins. Pittsburgh has dropped three of the past four games even while facing likely non-playoff teams in each of those games and last week’s win featured a misleading score with near-even production but a +3 turnover edge. Mason Rudolph had a good game but a third of his production came on one play and he has been a career #3 quarterback for a reason. The Steelers have averaged just 3.3 yards per rush in the past three games as Seattle’s vulnerability on run defense may not be exposed and the schedule has been a factor in the recent numbers including facing two of the NFL’s best run teams the past two weeks and still winning. Geno Smith has not quite matched last season’s results, but he was sharp against quality defense last week and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last eight games. The Steelers are a barely .500 team even with the NFL’s best turnover margin and Seattle remains a difficult place to play with the Seahawks 7-2 S/U in home games in the 2023 calendar. Pittsburgh has managed just 15 points per game this season on the road and is still playing with their #3 quarterback. With this line up to 4 or 4.5 the first half may be more appealing for the Seahawks with Pittsburgh likely to be at a disadvantage early in this game.