Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Dec. 10

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#122 Las Vegas Raiders +3 over Minnesota Vikings 3:05 PM CT

The Vikings are sticking with Joshua Dobbs out of the bye week, looking to snap a two-game slide with painful narrow losses. Turnovers have been a problem for Minnesota all season and Dobbs has five interceptions in his four games with the Vikings and 10 on the season. Minnesota continues to play in one-score games week-after-week with 11 of 12 games this season decided by eight or fewer points as another close game seems inevitable. Justin Jefferson has a chance to return this week which could boost the favorite number on Minnesota, even though the star wide receiver has never caught a pass from Dobbs and will be closely monitored if he is allowed to suit up.  Despite Kirk Cousins posting great numbers for the bulk of Minnesota’s statistical profile, Minnesota is only a league-average scoring team averaging fewer than 22 points per game. The Vikings don’t run the ball well and struggle playing with a lead while the defense is vulnerable to big plays with the aggressive approach of defensive coordinator Brian Flores. That will leave opportunities for the Raiders to stay in this game. Las Vegas is 4-1 S/U and ATS in the past four home games with the only miss being the late November game with the Chiefs when they had a 14-0 lead. Aidan O’Connell and Dobbs have very similar numbers with O’Connell offering 0.6 more yards per pass attempt and the rookie out of Purdue has only one interception in his three home starts, posting a QBR in the 80s in two of those games. The Raiders have six losses vs. top 10 teams this season as it has been a difficult schedule that has included the Dolphins and Chiefs in the past two games before last week’s bye and in a potentially close game, the points look valuable in a game where a turnover could be decisive.