Free Pick | NCAA | Wednesday | Feb. 26

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#691 Illinois-Chicago +7.5 over Northern Iowa 6:00 PM CT

Illinois Chicago beat Drake in January and has wins over Illinois State, Murray State, and Bradley as despite the 9-9 MVC record, this team has been able to play with anyone in the conference. Illinois Chicago has lost five of the past seven games but five MVC losses this season have come by five or fewer points. A major exception was the early December home loss to Northern Iowa, losing 83-56. That game came after a long break and a tournament in Florida for a challenging set-up in what has been a transition season under head coach Rob Ehsan. Northern Iowa was in a desperate spot for that game after back-to-back losses and was in a normal scheduling turnaround to post one of the team’s best performances of the season that included shooting over 61 percent from 3-point range. Northern Iowa has been one of the worst 3-point defenses in the conference this season as a big edge beyond the arc is an unusual outcome for the Panthers, who don’t take many long range shots relative to the rest of the conference. Northern Iowa has faced an easier league path so far and has had some breaks with opponents having very poor free throw shooting results against the Panthers. Sunday’s game hosting Drake was the biggest game of the season, and the overtime loss could take a toll, with Northern Iowa no longer able to catch Drake for the top MVC position. Leon Bond hasn’t played in several weeks and Bond had a huge game in the first meeting between these teams, scoring 22 points. Illinois-Chicago has seven road wins this season and while the team is on an ugly current ATS streak, this is an ideal spot to fade Northern Iowa on an emotional low after Sunday’s demoralizing finish, even if this is the regular season home finale in Cedar Falls.